The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[jokesonm3]

Let's see how much it can gross before it releases in China, i predict that it'll be in the $1.5 billion range while China boosts i upwards to $1.9 - $2 billion by January.

 

[InCali]

That isn't true. There is usually plenty of competition. The thing is this year, they all ran away at the sight of Star Wars.

I misspoke when I said "any competition", but there is DEFINITELY less competition in Jan-Feb (and usually March) than the summer May-August releases. The studios generally release their biggest hits during the summer when school is out.

And, yes, no one really wanted to go up against SW:TFA.

EDIT:
Avatar had to go up against a popular Chipmunks movie (different demo though), Sherlock Holmes, and Book of Eli (off the top of my head). Nothing really big came around until Alice in Wonderland. TFA has Deadpool on the horizon, Kung Fu Panda (again, different demo), 5th Wave, etc. All those will probably do well, but they aren't in the same category as the big summer releases (AoU, JW, F7 [April as I recall, but still not on the horizon for a Dec release], etc.).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I misspoke when I said "any competition", but there is DEFINITELY less competition in Jan-Feb (and usually March) than the summer May-August releases. The studios generally release their biggest hits during the summer when school is out.

And, yes, no one really wanted to go up against SW:TFA.

That is true, though there is also the usual expansion of Oscar contenders in Jan.

While the summer is "movie season", November and December is the home for some of the biggest releases every year. Early Nov, Thanksgiving and Christmas sees the release of the biggest family oriented entertainment.

 

[Erzengel]

There has been in a shift over the past few years. Home Alone was probably the first big holiday grosser. Followed by Titanic. Then you had Harry Potter, LOTR, Avatar, Hunger Games, etc.

In the end the top 3 grossing movies will probably be December releases.

 

[spiderman2]

Yeah. The advantage of releasing a movie in later December is that there usually isn't any competition. The disadvantage is that it doesn't normally do the crazy high numbers. TFA bucked that trend in a big way and will definitely be pulling away more and more from JW because it doesn't have the level of competition JW had and it's experiencing smaller drops. If that continues, it's hard to tell WHERE this will end up. We're pretty much in uncharted territory.

EDIT: JW did about 1.7B WW so, given how things are going, I don't see how TFA misses 2B. China could push it higher if TFA can beat JW in China.

And, by the way, I don't personally count re-release numbers. Titanic did 1.8B WW in its first run. The re-release pushed it higher into the +2B range. Ditto for Avatar's DOM total. It was just under 750M.

I didn't know that avatar got a re-release but yeah the thing about re-release is that not ever movie gets one so yeah I here you about that and I have got to say that 2 billion is a lock now for star wars WW.

 

[Erzengel]

And Star Wars has got December locked up for the next 5 years.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I didn't know that avatar got a re-release but yeah the thing about re-release is that not ever movie gets one so yeah I here you about that and I have got to say that 2 billion is a lock now for star wars WW.

Avatar was actually at $749m domestically before the re-release added $11m.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

And Star Wars has got December locked up for the next 5 years.

Star Wars is moving back to May in 2017.

 

[Erzengel]

Really? Huh. Wait, I forgot that I heard about Avatar 2 in December of 2017.

 

[InCali]

Interesting conversation.

That is true, though there is also the usual expansion of Oscar contenders in Jan.

While the summer is "movie season", November and December is the home for some of the biggest releases every year. Early Nov, Thanksgiving and Christmas sees the release of the biggest family oriented entertainment.

That's true, but my sense is that they are spread around and no one really wants to release their potential blockbusters in Jan-Feb. If a movie grabs hold in December like Titanic, Avatar, TFA, it is set up nicely for a long, lucrative run. TFA had the added advantage of killing it opening weekend.

There has been in a shift over the past few years. Home Alone was probably the first big holiday grosser. Followed by Titanic. Then you had Harry Potter, LOTR, Avatar, Hunger Games, etc.

In the end the top 3 grossing movies will probably be December releases.

And I think the reason for that is because of what I stated above. All nice points though.......

EDIT: The HP movies generally opened in the summer or November. November is very different IMO from a late December release that puts a stranglehold on Jan-Feb.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Really? Huh. Wait, I forgot that I heard about Avatar 2 in December of 2017.

That is so not happening. Cameron is already waffling on that one.

 

[JOE]

That is so not happening. Cameron is already waffling on that one.

http://www.dnaindia.com/entertainment/report-james-cameron-s-avatar-2-gets-a-release-date-2159657

 

[InCali]

Star Wars is moving back to May in 2017.

I heard that. Is Avatar the reason? I would think Cameron would blink first because I don't think he'll be catching lightning in a bottle twice. I'm sure A2 will do just fine, but head to head, my money would be on SW. I guess it works out well for both in the long run.

 

[Erzengel]

Looking at the December 2017 other releases.

Disney fairy tale movie. Six Billion Dollar Man? Someone should jump on that.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

http://www.dnaindia.com/entertainment/report-james-cameron-s-avatar-2-gets-a-release-date-2159657

http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/ne...n-confirms-release-and-shooting-date#/slide/1

“Christmas of ’17 is the target,” Cameron confirmed of the expected release of Avatar 2. “At least, that’s what we’ve announced. But I don’t consider that to be as important as the fact that when we get all three films done, we drop them a year apart. I call it a meta-narrative that runs across the three movies. Each film stands alone, but it also tells one much larger story. We have design more or less finished, which is an enormous task. It’s been about a two-year task. (We’ve finished) all the creatures and the landscapes, and the new worlds within the world of Pandora that you see. The writing is ongoing, but almost finished. Technical development is done. Stages are done. Infrastructure. So we’re really poised to start after the first of the year.”

 

[JOE]

http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/ne...n-confirms-release-and-shooting-date#/slide/1

So... It's still going to most likely be December 2017 right?

 

[DKDetective]

That is so not happening. Cameron is already waffling on that one.

If true, then they need to move Episode 8 to December 2017. Summer 2017 is just way too crowded.

 

[InCali]

That is so not happening. Cameron is already waffling on that one.

I thought GotG2 was going to start filming soon. That'll take awhile so it seems like Cameron might have some conflicts which might lead to some delays.

EDIT: If Cameron wants to drop them a year apart, then let HIM drop them in the summer. I don't see Dec '17 as happening. I agree with DK.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Summer 2017 isn't any more crowded than any other summer.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I heard that. Is Avatar the reason? I would think Cameron would blink first because I don't think he'll be catching lightning in a bottle twice. I'm sure A2 will do just fine, but head to head, my money would be on SW. I guess it works out well for both in the long run.

TFA was suppose to come out in May 2015. JJ wanted May 2016. They compromised and made it Dec 2015 because Iger promised investors that they would have a Star Wars movie in 2015. They never wanted to move it to December.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So... It's still going to most likely be December 2017 right?

No. This is exactly the stuff he has been saying for years, and it always gets pushed back. That is why he isn't talking about 2017 being firm, while saying what is most important is releasing the three films a year apart from one another.

 

[InCali]

TFA was suppose to come out in May 2015. JJ wanted May 2016. They compromised and made it Dec 2015 because Iger promised investors that they would have a Star Wars movie in 2015. They never wanted to move it to December.

Well it sure as hell worked out for them. Don't fix it if it ain't broke.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well it sure as hell worked out for them. Don't fix it if it ain't broke.

Nothing has ever been wrong with releasing Star Wars in May. It is the king for a reason. AotC has been the only problem, and that was a combination of Spider-Man, AotC sucking and people being burned by TPM.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Star Wars would have been huge in May as well.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Everything coming out in May 2017 is about to scatter. You will start hearing about movies quietly moving around and it will be hilarious.

Look at it this way. There is zero reason BvS couldn't come out in December, it makes way more sense then March. Same for Rogue Nation and Kung Fu Panda 3. And yet, none did.