The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Silver Surfer]

Can SW7 recapture the masses like it did for the original?

What are your box office predictions?

 

[vinsanity]

If it's good, at least better than the prequels, then yeah. I voted over $2 Billion but I don't think it will reach Avatar numbers.

 

[HarryOsborn]

The first and last film in each trilogy usually is the highest grossing, largely because people don't know when they'll see Star Wars again. Phantom Menace was insanely commercially successful, only behind A New Hope (adjusted for inflation). Episode VII will make huge bucks simply for the nostalgia factor and because it's the first Star Wars film in a decade and non fans will want to see what all the fuss is about. Anywhere past a billion is up in the air.

 

[Silver Surfer]

http://ca.ign.com/videos/2014/12/12/star-wars-could-it-be-the-highest-grossing-film-ever-up-at-noon

Some at IGN believe SW7 could be the highest grossing film ever.

 

[HarryOsborn]

http://ca.ign.com/videos/2014/12/12/star-wars-could-it-be-the-highest-grossing-film-ever-up-at-noon

Some at IGN believe SW7 could be the highest grossing film ever.

It stands a good chance. The brand has a large built in number of followers, arguably more than before the prequels came out. The fact is as divided as the fan base is on the prequel trilogy, those films made a new generation of fans, and even those who disliked these movies paid to see them anyway. Add in the nostalgia factor with the original cast and you'll have most people born over the past 50 years showing up to see this movie.

 

[Jedi-Spirit]

It could best Avatar just based on inflation...

 

[MistaBinks]

Has it officially been announced that TFA will be in 3D? I know there is going to be an IMAX scene but I can't recall if LFL has officially said anything regarding 3D.

 

[Apollo]

I expect it to make over a billion. Not sure though how much. I voted around 1.2 to 1.4 billion. That is around how much the last Harry Potter movie made.

 

[Yellow Cyclone]

tom cruise/mission impossible 5 moved up to summer release, good news for both franchises, way less competition for both

 

[Lilbaz]

I think it will make similar numbers to Avengers. Think it could beat it if it can be big in China. But none of the Star Wars films are even in their top 40. Also have to see how the worlds economy does. Things are slowing down especially in Europe.

 

[CommanderConnor]

1.6 billion I think it will make

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well with Mission Impossible 5 moving nearly half a year up to avoid this, that is another good sign in terms of box office for VII.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

$3 billion worldwide. I think with a great story, great cast, great director, and an opening day that is the same as the highest-grossing film of all-time worldwide (i.e. "Avatar"), it looks like it could make $3 billion worldwide.

 

[HarryOsborn]

The thing this movie has going for it is nostalgia. If the rumors about Luke having almost no screen time turn out to be true, there's going to be a big cut in profit. No way around that. Han is very popular yes, but what the casual fans who grew up with the OT want is to see all of them together again.

My predictions are as follows:

bad story/poor reviews/minimal screen time for Luke:
1-1.1 billion

good story/positive reviews/minimal screen time for Luke:
1.2 billion - 1.3 billion

a good portion of screen time dedicated to the OT cast/good reviews
1.5-2 billion easily

 

[Solidus]

No it won't. Sorry to bust some bubbles, though people love Luke, most the GA does not care. Harrison is the true star of SW to the GA. And we know he is one of the big ones. What matters is a good story End of story. Minimal Luke will not cut it .5 billion dollars. Sorry that is just the most absurd thing I've heard. Look how many views the new SW trailer got and it had NONE of the OT cast.

People have not been hyping this as the "return of Luke" it's the return of SW as a whole. Most of the GA actually scoffed originally at the old three coming back, making the jokes that one usually makes to old people doing younger things. They have said since the get go that this is a story of the new generation. A passing of the torch. If people hyped this up as Luke being the main character or a huge part (which it seems from those same rumors he's huge in VIII and small in VII to give Han room to shine) of this film have no one to blame but themselves. This film will be making I'm sure 1.5 billion at minimum.

Harrison Ford is the known image to the GA, he is a movie star. Mark Hamil is loved by the super hard core fans but not as recognizable as Harrison Ford to the masses.

 

[Lord]

$3 billion worldwide. I think with a great story, great cast, great director, and an opening day that is the same as the highest-grossing film of all-time worldwide (i.e. "Avatar"), it looks like it could make $3 billion worldwide.

Avatar had the advantage of being a new name though, Star Wars brings a lot of package, both positive and negative, as legendary as the original trilogy is, by now, almost everyone has an opinion about it, and i do see many having a negative perception, be it that they didn't grow with the films or were nver able to get into it.

For this film to succeed, i think it's going to need to feel like a real fresh start, something everyone could get into, pretty much how Avengers didn't need everyone to have seen the Phase I movies. Marketing can also pay a key factory, if the trailer is interesting, it can get anyone interested, even if that person doesn't generaly like the brand, the latest Godzilla trailer was a pretty good example of a great trailer, and that film didn't make more due to the film itself being a bit of a disapointment, leading into poor word of mouth.

I think a Billion is guaranteed, even if the film ends up being bad, 2 Billion if it can give a wow factor like Avatar and Titanic did, but i think it's a bit doubtful.

Old fans are already interested in watching it, so i think that the keys to making this film break Avatar's record lies in:

1) Perfect marketing, like the Godzilla example i previously i gave, the kind of marketing that makes even people who have a negative opinion on the franchise get a bit interested in knowing what the fuzz is about.

2) Wow factor, not sure we'll get this though, nowadays this is very difficult to do, the only upcoming films that seem to be doing that are the Avatar sequels due to having James Cameron constantly pushing technology in film. But then again, it's not impossible, even if you don't have new shinnier effects, the Millenium Falcon scene from the teaser was quite dynamic.

3) Rewatch value, after seeing Avatar, Frozen or Guardians of the Galaxy, may wanted to watch those movies again, Episode VII needs to be able to be that kind of movie, something people don't get tired of easily.

4) Conquer a new generation, no offense, but i think the older fans are already a given, but i don't think we are enough to make this film dethrone Avatar, in order for that to happen, you need to make a new generation obsess over Star Wars. Avatar was the kind of film almost everyone was talking about, i think that for teens to people in their early 20s, Facebook is a good place to evaluate that, you can see how popular Harry Potter and both top grossing James Cameron films were. Going from Facebook, even the fast and the furious, and the Transformers films are more popular, and to be honest, from the people in that age demographic i speak with, that notion seems to be correct. The Avatar and Titanic pages show that both those films spoke well with this demographic, so, i think it shows that for a film to break the record, it realy needs to conquer people of all ages.

Taking all these factors into account, i think it's doubtful Episode VII can beat the record set by Avatar, it already has too much package. However, beating Avengers may be possible, it's going to be interesting to see the end results of both Avengers 2 and Episode VII by the end of the year.

 

[Solidus]

To beat Avatar would be a challenge. I think if VII is successful VIII may have a chance at that. Avatar's success was based around a gimmick though. The whole 3D thing was something that all anyone talked about.

Though I think this younger generation, many don't understand the true pull that SW can have. Being raised from '89-99 in a world where Star Wars ruled it all. There was a draw for even people like me who was a "new generation" The PT's quality did give it some dings and the rise of the CBM has somewhat (not as bad) put SW back in to the mid to late 80's where it sort of disappeared. But SW even with the PT brought new generations to it. People are getting a little strung out on the Comic Book world and to win over a new generation is nothing hard to do.

Facebook was blowing up with the SW7 Trailer. It broke records in terms of how many watched it as quickly as it did. The interest for SW is there, it is what all media sites are talking about more so than even Avengers 2. People want SW back they know the quality of it. The "wow" factor of SW is being SW itself. The universe is like no other there is special mixes of other genres in it that give it something unique and awe inspiring. Sadly I felt as did many others the PT did not tap into that as well.

The huge success of Rebels and the massive sales of the SW comics from Marvel are hyping people up leading people to this new generation of heroes having the torch passed down.

Now having said all that do I think it will be Avatar? No, that would be hard to do, it is a possibility no doubts. SW has a universal appeal, it goes across boarders and ideologies and digs into something primal within us all. It truly is a mythology like no other. There is no "Earth" it is truly in a galaxy far far away that taps into the human element of us all.

SW was universal, that is what drew so many fans from so many ages. It is what made it the masterpiece it was. That is something that will be easy to do. Kids are easy to get on board, and JJ knows how to entertain adults. I think if good (which I'm sure it will be) TFA will be big, and easily above 1.5 billion. People are ready for something different again, to go to another galaxy and world that is outside of theirs and has no connection to ours.

 

[Soapy]

Over 2 billion. I think this movie is going to be a monster. Assuming of course it doesn't suck ass and bad word of mouth kills its potential outside of Star Wars fans.

 

[writer0327]

I'm going for 1.3B. That's regardless of how good it is. In order to break Avatar it will need repeat viewings. If it's good and gets repeat viewings, it can rise to 2B.

 

[mclay18]

The Hollywood Reporter did a preliminary write-up about the film's box-office prospects and suggests that the film will open bigger and outgross both Avengers movies. Not only that, but the movie could gross $540 million worldwide in its opening weekend.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/could-star-wars-open-at-789889

A box office analyst says TFA will hit a billion easily, but if it's really good -- it could hit $2 billion worldwide. Judging by the reception to the second trailer, it's quite possible the latter could happen.

I don't think it'll open with $200 million domestically on opening weekend, but I can easily see it open above $100 million and maintain fantastic legs throughout the holidays.

 

[ares834]

Going all in on this one, over 2 billion.

As already mentioned, the reception for the second trailer was insane! I've never seen reception for a trailer like that. Heck, there were people in my office talking about it during break today. That never happens.

 

[Sithborg]

4) Conquer a new generation, no offense, but i think the older fans are already a given, but i don't think we are enough to make this film dethrone Avatar, in order for that to happen, you need to make a new generation obsess over Star Wars. Avatar was the kind of film almost everyone was talking about, i think that for teens to people in their early 20s, Facebook is a good place to evaluate that, you can see how popular Harry Potter and both top grossing James Cameron films were. Going from Facebook, even the fast and the furious, and the Transformers films are more popular, and to be honest, from the people in that age demographic i speak with, that notion seems to be correct. The Avatar and Titanic pages show that both those films spoke well with this demographic, so, i think it shows that for a film to break the record, it realy needs to conquer people of all ages.

Here's the thing, though, we are talking about third generation Star Wars fans. People like me, who were born around the time of the movies, who were raised with them, are now having kids. Much like how Episode I was pretty much drawing in the 2 generations of Star Wars fans, Episode VII is going to have a very special draw. And even then, each new trilogy seems to spawn new fans. Hell, The Clone Wars and Rebels is doing more priming of a new generation of fans than what we had before Episode I. We will see, as the box office can be rather fickle, but I have a good feeling about it.

Still, it will be fun to compare this to the thread in the marvel movie section.

And of course, the true question, will this movie get to a billion Furious 7? That will be the mark the big movies will be compared to this year.

 

[Octoberist]

It'll make 2.5 ZILLION CRedits!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Some people think Furious 7 will beat SW7 worldwide.

These people simply don't understand the nature of Star Wars fandom.

It's as close to religion as pop culture gets.

1.6 billion

That's at least 200 million more than Furious 7 is aiming for.

 

[Octoberist]

Who are these people? I mean, seriously, Furious 7 is making great bank but it's no Star Wars, Avengers, or even Bond.