Box Office: A:AoU VS SW7

[Silver Surfer]

The two biggest releases of 2015, who takes the crown?

Industry predictions:

International business time belives SW7 will be the top grosser:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/box-office...lms-avengers-star-wars-jurassic-world-1480655

IGN is split:

http://ca.ign.com/videos/2014/12/12/star-wars-could-it-be-the-highest-grossing-film-ever-up-at-noon

Bloomberg says SW7:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/box-...movies-dooms-2014-VCfouyQtTc6MDZCcuPg3zw.html

Another medium to gauge would be trailer views. The SW7 trailer has more views than the A:AOU trailer, even though it was released a month later.

My money is on SW7 as well. As massive as I think MCU is, I believe the only thing bigger as a franchise is Star Wars. With the original cast back in the lot, JJ directing and the Disney marketing machine at it's back, SW7 should take the 2015 crown.

 

[Wildcard]

AoU will dominate.

 

[kedrell]

^Agreed. I don't even think it's going to be close. AoU has all the momentum to win.

 

[ctriis]

I think Avengers will win the 2015 box office comfortably, and SW will have to fight Bond 24 and possibly Hunger Games 3.2 for the second place.

Age of Ultron is following a movie which made more than 1.5 billion at the box office worldwide and was hailed by critics, fans and general audiences all over the world.

SW7 is following a trilogy of movies which made just under 850 million on average (PTM 1030, AOTC 650, ROTS 850) and got mixed reviews from critics, fans and general audiences.

It would be unreasonable, in my opinion, to expect SW7 to beat Avengers.

 

[NealKenneth]

Star Wars will have a bigger opening weekend, maybe even $250 million, but the top gross will go to whoever makes a better movie (unless they both suck.)

 

[kedrell]

I don't see SW7 having a bigger OW. It's a holiday release and those tend to be lower than the summer OW's. SW7 may well have a bigger opening week than AoU though because school will be out at that time while early May still has schools in session.

 

[Wildcard]

SW7 definitely will not have a bigger OW than AoU. It may be somewhat close, but it ain't gonna be more.

 

[TalismanRing]

The two biggest releases of 2015, who takes the crown?

Another medium to gauge would be trailer views. The SW7 trailer has more views than the A:AOU trailer, even though it was released a month later.

.

I think the views are pretty even considering they're both spread over different trailers on You tube.

Trailers also get most of their hits in the first week.

Interestingly the number of likes between the main you tube trailer for each is significantly different.

The AOU trailer with 63m views has 461k + likes and 8.7k dislikes - (about 400,000 of those likes were within the first week or so).

SW7 trailer with 52.4m views has 288k likes and 17k dislikes.

The Star Wars trailers look to more repeat views but fewer unique viewers.

I think AOU will have the bigger opening w/e not just because of the brand but it opens in May. December is known for smaller openings and longer holiday infused legs.

Domestically it might be close though I give AOU the edge but internationally Avengers is currently a far bigger brand than Star Wars. Even with the smaller O/S markets the prequels did not dominate - they paced not only well behind the Potters and LOTR but Spider-Man and Narnia.

 

[DA_Champion]

Probably Avengers 2, but why does it matter?

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

who cares? both will make lots of money

 

[Juha Bach]

I think we have more of a debate when it comes to the domestic box office but over overseas? Avengers is going to destroy.

 

[CaptainWagner]

Either way, Disney is dominating the box office next year, hands down.

 

[hoy-small-fry]

Star Wars will get it, that brand appeals to all demographics and is new. Avengers falls into comic-book territory, which is still seen as niche by some

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Star Wars will get it, that brand appeals to all demographics and is new. Avengers falls into comic-book territory, which is still seen as niche by some

Superhero movies are not "niche".

They are four quadrant blockbusters, meaning every major demographic enjoys them.

In fact, Star Wars has more nerd appeal than Avengers which appeals to the general public.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think it will be a tight race for the domestic crown with Star Wars being the slight favorite due to the big event of Star Wars returning.

Worldwide, Avengers wins though.

I don't see SW making over 1 billion overseas like Avengers 2 will likely do.

 

[harryoscop]

I couldn't care less about that Star Wars BS.
Avengers will slay it!

 

[TalismanRing]

Yeah, $1.5b isn't niche. Niche isn't having 4 of the top 7 or 8 highest grossing films WW last year.

 

[Shakel92]

Disney

 

[Superhero 101]

Star Wars

 

[Val Hallen]

People here are greatly underestimating Star Wars and it's decades worth of following. Though the MCU has some years, this is still only the second Avengers movie.. And Star Wars coming back when no one thought it would is by far the most monumental thing. People who hated the prequels have only more incentive to watch it, now that Lucas has distanced himself from the franchise and the people doing them are setting to not make the same mistakes. I'm looking forward the most to Avengers, but "C'mon!"

 

[flickchick85]

I think they'll be pretty close, but I'd give Star Wars the edge.

 

[smallville fan]

I couldn't care less about that Star Wars BS.
Avengers will slay it!

Here Here!

Star Wars has been BS recently with all this children's material this year! Totally agree man!

 

[Quasimod0]

I think Avengers will be number one, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Star Wars a close second, if not overtaking the Avengers. They are both HUGE must-see movies.

 

[mclay18]

I don't see SW7 having a bigger OW. It's a holiday release and those tend to be lower than the summer OW's. SW7 may well have a bigger opening week than AoU though because school will be out at that time while early May still has schools in session.

It's not rocket science that Disney picked the same date that Fox parked Avatar on back in 2009. Certainly the SW factor will ensure that SW:TFA will break the December opening weekend record (maybe peak at $100M), but the holiday releases tend to have really good legs -- better than a lot of summer releases. Avatar posted a decent $77M opening, maintained strong weekday numbers and most importantly, had very small drops the next several weekends.

I don't think SW7 will break Avatar's worldwide haul, but if any December movies are any demonstration -- a lot of movies have final grosses that range from 3 to 8X their opening weekend. That's impressive.

SW7 has that nostalgia factor going for it, the nerd following, and a perfect release date. Even if it doesn't crack $100M on its opening weekend, the holiday legs could give it a final total north of $400M domestic (higher if it's a real crowd-pleaser) and $1B worldwide.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

400 million Domestic/1 billion Overseas would be pretty disappointed for SW IMO.

I'd think Disney would want at least 500 m/1.2 b