Fant4stic Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[wobbly]

So you'd set the over and under WW at about 150M? DOM, I'd take the under on 55M, but think it will be fairly close. I'll bet the word is out and it does worse than expected (again) in Italy/Japan.

$150 mil ww I think is the ceiling atm. Can't see it being much over or under that. Maybe a few mil either way but not enough to make this anything but a collosal bomb. Ha

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

It's at about 2600 now as I recall. As of Friday, what do you think? I don't know much about the logic behind # of screens.

I don't know much about it, but I expect that number to drop dramatically. I suspect the only reason it was as high as it was last weekend was that theaters probably promised to keep it on a certain number of screens for the first three weekends. Based on the numbers we've been seeing, those 2600 screens must have been near empty.

 

[InCali]

I just checked Fandango. Of the 5 theaters I go to regularly, 2 aren't showing it at all on Saturday and the other 3 have a combined total of 12 showings on Saturday.t:

What's it like this week? While it wouldn't be statistically significant, we could get a ballpark (a bad ballpark like the old Vet in Philly that I'm always picking on) of drops. I'll check it out locally and see if they fall in line.

Unless someone out there just knows and gathers this info.....then that would be very different.....never mind.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

What's it like this week? While it wouldn't be statistically significant, we could get a ballpark (a bad ballpark like the old Vet in Philly that I'm always picking on) of drops. I'll check it out locally and see if they fall in line.

Unless someone out there just knows and gathers this info.....then that would be very different.....never mind.

I would estimate that on the first Saturday it opened, the five theaters I go to would have had a total of 60-70 showings on that Saturday, so based on my anecdotal observations, it has roughly 1/6 the number of showings this Saturday to what it started at.

And to put some perspective on that, my wife and I like to go to movies on Saturday at around 11:00 am and then have a nice lunch somewhere afterward, but that wouldn't be an option this weekend. We could either go to a 9:50 showing at one theater or wait for a 12:50 showing at a different theater. Nobody (within the densely populated 5 theater area I live) is showing it between 9:50 and 12:50, so even if we really wanted to see it, we'd find something else because the timing wouldn't work out for us.

I think this is the last real weekend for this film, and it won't be making much on that last weekend.

 

[InCali]

I would estimate that on the first Saturday it opened, the five theaters I go to would have had a total of 60-70 showings on that Saturday, so based on my anecdotal observations, it has roughly 1/6 the number of showings this Saturday to what it started at.

And to put some perspective on that, my wife and I like to go to movies on Saturday at around 11:00 am and then have a nice lunch somewhere afterward, but that wouldn't be an option this weekend. We could either go to a 9:50 showing at one theater or wait for a 12:50 showing at a different theater. Nobody (within the densely populated 5 theater area I live) is showing it between 9:50 and 12:50, so even if we really wanted to see it, we'd find something else because the timing wouldn't work out for us.

I think this is the last real weekend for this film, and it won't be making much on that last weekend.

You say anecdotal, I say statistically insignificant t: Gee, I wonder what I used to do......

So, I'll check things out and see if the local LA scene lines up. That'll give us a little bit more info. It seems extreme, but it "could" be looking at a drop of almost 2K screens?!?!?

I like to do that with my wife also. It makes for a relaxing day. You could, however, grab an early lunch/brunch and check out the 12:50 show....

If it's really that significant of a drop (or anything close to it), my over and under of about 55M is way high.....good thing I took the under.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

You could, however, grab an early lunch/brunch and check out the 12:50 show....

The problem with that is you never know exactly how long your meal is going to take and then it's not relaxing. If it's taking longer than you thought and you need to run to make the show, it ruins the enjoyment of the meal. That works if there's a big film that's showing every half hour (as happens with things like Avengers AOU at the big theaters), but for one that's as limited as this one, it puts you on a tight schedule.

And as for the $55 million, I'd definitely take the under on that, but it could trickle close to that over the next 3-4 weeks until it's absolutely, completely dead. I think if I had to pick a final number at this moment, I'd go with about $54 million when all is done.

 

[InCali]

I would estimate that on the first Saturday it opened, the five theaters I go to would have had a total of 60-70 showings on that Saturday, so based on my anecdotal observations, it has roughly 1/6 the number of showings this Saturday to what it started at.

And to put some perspective on that, my wife and I like to go to movies on Saturday at around 11:00 am and then have a nice lunch somewhere afterward, but that wouldn't be an option this weekend. We could either go to a 9:50 showing at one theater or wait for a 12:50 showing at a different theater. Nobody (within the densely populated 5 theater area I live) is showing it between 9:50 and 12:50, so even if we really wanted to see it, we'd find something else because the timing wouldn't work out for us.

I think this is the last real weekend for this film, and it won't be making much on that last weekend.

Jumpin' Jehoshaphat! It looks like the theaters want it to skedaddle out of town. None of the AMCs in Marina del Rey or Santa Monica have any showings as of today (but they did yesterday). In addition, the AMC in Century City (15 screens) isn't carrying it as of today either. The only place you can see it is at the Cinemarks. The one in Playa Vista is showing it in its smallest theater and ditto for the Cinemark at Howard Hughes Center. It has the same number of showings for FF as it does for a movie called "Kick 2"; one more showing of Kick at Playa Vista and one less of Kick at the HHC.

If you want a laugh about the absurdity of this, look up Kick 2, but here's some information about it from the Cinemark website (and this is real...really and truly it is...this is not a joke).

"Open Limited 8/21/15

Runtime 160 min

MPAA Rating Not Rated Indian Film in Telugu with no Subtitles.

Starring Ravi Teja, Rakul Preet Singh, Brahmanandam, Tanikella Bharani, Rajpal Yadav, Ravi Kishan, Nikitin Dheer, Sanjay Mishra

Distributor Los Angeles Telugu LLC"


I'm going to take a wild guess here, go out on a limb, and say the FF tanks this weekend. I was joking about Shaun the Sheep passing it, but now I'm not so sure. Shaun has way more showings this week than FF.

 

[InCali]

The problem with that is you never know exactly how long your meal is going to take and then it's not relaxing. If it's taking longer than you thought and you need to run to make the show, it ruins the enjoyment of the meal. That works if there's a big film that's showing every half hour (as happens with things like Avengers AOU at the big theaters), but for one that's as limited as this one, it puts you on a tight schedule.

And as for the $55 million, I'd definitely take the under on that, but it could trickle close to that over the next 3-4 weeks until it's absolutely, completely dead. I think if I had to pick a final number at this moment, I'd go with about $54 million when all is done.

Well, ya.....you wouldn't want to miss the beginning of the 12:50 showing of FF. That would be a tragedy of Shakespearean proportions.

Maybe if you're going to eat, it's better just to stay away whether or not you're eating before or after??

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

It would be great if this would stop just short of $55 million... if only so we could have the comforting knowledge that it couldn't even meet the entire opening weekend of 2005's Fantastic Four.

 

[InCali]

It would be great if this would stop just short of $55 million... if only so we could have the comforting knowledge that it couldn't even meet the entire opening weekend of 2005's Fantastic Four.

I don't see any way for it to beat the OW for the original FF movies, The Incredible Hulk, or Ant-Man. I believe it's being shown in less theaters than stated as some in my area have dropped showing it this week (edit: meaning dropped showings after last weekend). It crashes this (coming) weekend.

 

[Dark Raven]

This film hasn't even made $55 million yet? I thought that was one of the original projected openings for FFINO (possibly a lower, readjusted one)?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

This film hasn't even made $55 million yet? I thought that was one of the original projected openings for FFINO (possibly a lower, readjusted one)?

I remember authoritative projections as high as $70 million. I think about a month prior to opening, the consensus would have been about $55 million, but that dropped as we got closer to opening. When Ant-Man opened with $57, I think most people realized FF would be lower than that and adjusted down to around $50.

 

[Flint Marko]

I have two theaters near me: one has three showings today, another has two. They are all earlier in the day, none after 4 o'clock.
I can't wait for the dust to settle on this so we can see where this will land in the pantheon of comic book movie flops. The fact that it's less successful than the previous two installments in every way is truly fascinating.

 

[InCali]

I remember authoritative projections as high as $70 million. I think about a month prior to opening, the consensus would have been about $55 million, but that dropped as we got closer to opening. When Ant-Man opened with $57, I think most people realized FF would be lower than that and adjusted down to around $50.

Then King Solomon stepped in and took care of that baby.

 

[Mjölnir]

I remember authoritative projections as high as $70 million. I think about a month prior to opening, the consensus would have been about $55 million, but that dropped as we got closer to opening. When Ant-Man opened with $57, I think most people realized FF would be lower than that and adjusted down to around $50.

Pretty logical that the projections were adjusted close to the opening since it was in the last week or two that the studio really showed that it had no confidence at all in the movie. Before that there weren't really any solid signs of what a disaster it would be.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

I have two theaters near me: one has three showings today, another has two. They are all earlier in the day, none after 4 o'clock.
I can't wait for the dust to settle on this so we can see where this will land in the pantheon of comic book movie flops. The fact that it's less successful than the previous two installments in every way is truly fascinating.

This film hasn't even topped Tim Story's first film's opening weekend gross despite 10 years of inflation. That's pretty damn pathetic.

 

[Flint Marko]

This film hasn't even topped Tim Story's first film's opening weekend gross despite 10 years of inflation. That's pretty damn pathetic.

I never thought I'd describe anything as both "pathetic" and "beautiful" in the same breathe. Im trying to think of a better way for this to have turned out.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I have two theaters near me: one has three showings today, another has two. They are all earlier in the day, none after 4 o'clock.

My local Cinemark has already flushed it completely.

 

[Tymminator]

It's left a few theaters around me as well, and the two that are still showing it took away all extra screens and it is only available for a few specific times.

It's in its death throes.

 

[Tony Stark]

I have two theaters near me: one has three showings today, another has two. They are all earlier in the day, none after 4 o'clock.
I can't wait for the dust to settle on this so we can see where this will land in the pantheon of comic book movie flops. The fact that it's less successful than the previous two installments in every way is truly fascinating.

Yeah, theaters are dropping it like the plague. I think you can expect another over 50% drop this weekend from the screen loss alone.

 

[starscream22]

I never thought I'd describe anything as both "pathetic" and "beautiful" in the same breathe. Im trying to think of a better way for this to have turned out.

Sin City 2?

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Fantastic Four debuted in first place in Russia this past weekend, grossing 159.2 million rubles

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/russia-box-office-fantastic-four-817885

 

[Farren]

It was predicted to open at $3.2M but opened at $2.3M haha. I know I've said it before but the bar just can't be lowered fast enough for this movie.

 

[InCali]

I never thought I'd describe anything as both "pathetic" and "beautiful" in the same breathe. Im trying to think of a better way for this to have turned out.

The way things worked out will only be good if Marvel gets the FF back. If that happens, you probably won't be able to think of a way things could have turned out better. If not, a lot of people just wasted their time and money and we have no chance of seeing the FF again in the foreseeable future.

 

[AndrewGilkison]

Both major theaters in my area have dropped this movie. Not a single screen, it is completely gone.

Meanwhile, both those theaters still have Ant-Man playing. One screen each, both with five showings a day.