Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Rock Sexton]

actually ignoring that it cost about 40-50 million more than most films in it's category. It's kinda weird to see people jump on the "flop" wagon when it made about 10 million less than the films they're calling great successes.

I mean if IM or Spidey opened with their 100plus million this year it would be one thing, but so far all three superhero films have opened with pretty much the same amount of mulah.
I just think people need to be consistent, that being said GL's budget really doesn't help the situation. I do love how quickly it became public knowledge.

$10 million is a lot of money. Secondly the drop off is what is really going to be the true indicator. We haven't even gotten the full results from this 2nd week.

 

[Mysteryman]

The wild card for this weekend is Bad Teacher .
If that film does not perform well,GL has a shot at second place.
Do we have any tracking for Bad Teacher?

 

[Poni_Boy]

At first I was wondering why people were calling this a flop, I mean it only came in $2 million under X-Men. Then I saw it cost $200 million to make. With Cars 2 opening Friday, and Transformers on Tue/Wed, poor Hal is toast!

GL also opened on more screens than XFC, which didn't have a 3D release. Plus, GL's $125+ mil marketing and tie-ins overshadow every other 2011 film's marketing cost.

 

[Poni_Boy]

The wild card for this weekend is Bad Teacher .
If that film does not perform well,GL has a shot at second place.
Do we have any tracking for Bad Teacher?

It's tracking well from what I've heard. Reviews are here and there but the GA loves Cameron Diaz

 

[J.Howlett]

Lantern made another 5 million yesterday according to boxofficemojo.com forums.

It barely dropped from Monday. Not going to save this film but I thought it'd at least drop to 4 million for Tuesday.

 

[Rock Sexton]

Lantern made another 5 million yesterday according to boxofficemojo.com forums.

It barely dropped from Monday. Not going to save this film but I thought it'd at least drop to 4 million for Tuesday.

Looks like 10 year olds home for the summer fom school maxing out them piggy banks. LOL

No seriously, why isn't it released on the main page if those are the numbers being discussed?

 

[Tony Stark]

Lantern made another 5 million yesterday according to boxofficemojo.com forums.

It barely dropped from Monday. Not going to save this film but I thought it'd at least drop to 4 million for Tuesday.

Tuesday is a big day for bargain shows. Not a big surprise.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Looks like 10 year olds home for the summer fom school maxing out them piggy banks. LOL

No seriously, why isn't it released on the main page if those are the numbers being discussed?

Because a $5 mil Monday-after-release take is still low for this kind of film. Reporting all these updates feels like throwing a dodgeball at the handicapped kid on the bleachers

 

[Tony Stark]

The film will be destroyed this weekend. I think you're looking at 19M or lower.

 

[Weadazoid]

actually ignoring that it cost about 40-50 million more than most films in it's category. It's kinda weird to see people jump on the "flop" wagon when it made about 10 million less than the films they're calling great successes.

I mean if IM or Spidey opened with their 100plus million this year it would be one thing, but so far all three superhero films have opened with pretty much the same amount of mulah.
I just think people need to be consistent, that being said GL's budget really doesn't help the situation. I do love how quickly it became public knowledge.

Thing is it had the biggest Midnight Thursday but had the smallest Friday numbers......so the senak preview didn't help WOM. The real nail in the coffin so to speak was the Saturday drop, something Thor and X men did not have to contend with.


Thor may not have been a huge hit, had some fire taken away from Fast and Furious mind you, but... it still clearly a success.

X men First class - the jury is still out IMO, Fox did a decent job and the opening probably suffered some because of the last X Men movie, still though good WOM.


With GL you have disfavor from critics and the general audience. THe might not hate it quite like the critics, but they clearly are not telling thier freinds it is a must see.

 

[Tony Stark]

Thor was a pretty big hit internationaly, just not as much at home. WW it's made more than the first Star Trek, and Batman Begins. Granted inflation and 3D account for some of that.

This film is doing bad domestically and downright awful internationally. It will end up just over 200M WW.

I don't care how much this movie cost to make, the fact that it won't make 300M WW is a disgrace.

 

[Raiden]

actually ignoring that it cost about 40-50 million more than most films in it's category. It's kinda weird to see people jump on the "flop" wagon when it made about 10 million less than the films they're calling great successes.

I mean if IM or Spidey opened with their 100plus million this year it would be one thing, but so far all three superhero films have opened with pretty much the same amount of mulah.
I just think people need to be consistent, that being said GL's budget really doesn't help the situation. I do love how quickly it became public knowledge.

You seemed not to think the budget for GL is a big deal, when in fact the budget of a movie is critical and it determines the difference between a hit or a flop. Superman Returns made $391 million WW, but how come WB decided to get rid of everybody, including Singer, and opt for a reboot? It is because SR's production budget is $270 mil. So it means that even if GL made the same amount as SR, it still won't be profitable for WB, and GL will make far less by comparison.

 

[CaptainCraig]

GL needs Bad Teacher to open less than $20m so it has some fighting chance at being #2 this weekend. That would help save some face, but it's going to be tough even given that scenario.

Essentially GL's last big hurrah is next Monday, after that when TF opens GL is all but an after thought. TF will dominate and absorb $$$ for the next 10 days till Potter and then that 1+2 punch will have everything else getting scraps.

Captain America opens next and then we'll see if audiences are over comic movies or just have a good nose to sniff out and ignore the mediocore/bad ones.

 

[Tony Stark]

Even if Cap dissapoints, I don't think audiences are over comic book films. I think they are over bad comic book films. I will say this movie isn't any worse than Fantastic Four (that's not saying much), however this film is doing worse because, 1) the economy, 2)rediculous 3D movie prices driving everyone away, and 3) it's the old fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me adage, at the time Fantastic Four came out, only Daredevil, Electra and to a lesser extent Hulk were truely horrible. They gave it a chance, it got a second shot in ROTSS and they swung and missed. People arent' going to put up with that seeing how movies like Iron Man, the Dark Knight, and Thor have raised the quality bar.

 

[Rev]

Because a $5 mil Monday-after-release take is still low for this kind of film. Reporting all these updates feels like throwing a dodgeball at the handicapped kid on the bleachers

I agree somewhat but Thor and XMFC also had steep drop offs from Sunday to Monday and grossed $5M plus on their initial Mondays. I understand that the production costs associated with GL colours this somewhat but the fact remains all three had significant 60% plus drops from Sunday to Monday. Thor - 68% ($5.4M) XMFC -61%($5.4M) and GL -66.1% ($5.1M).

 

[Poni_Boy]

GL needs Bad Teacher to open less than $20m so it has some fighting chance at being #2 this weekend. That would help save some face, but it's going to be tough even given that scenario.

Don't forget Super 8, which came it at #2 last weekend behind GL. That movie still has solid WoM and it has a good chance at staying in the top three next weekend.

That would make it: #1 Cars 2, #2 Bad Teacher, #3 Super 8, #4 Green Lantern, #5 X-Men: first Class

The only places I see GL swapping is for the #3 and #4 spots

 

[Poni_Boy]

I agree somewhat but Thor and XMFC also had steep drop offs from Sunday to Monday and grossed $5M plus on their initial Mondays. I understand that the production costs associated with GL colours this somewhat but the fact remains all three had significant 60% plus drops from Sunday to Monday. Thor - 68% ($5.4M) XMFC -61%($5.4M) and GL -66.1% ($5.1M).

It doesn't have to do with the production costs as much as the ticket sales drops over the weekend:

Friday to Saturday: 22%

Sat to Sun: 9.4%

Sun to Mon: 66.1%

Neither Thor nor XFC had such a steep drop from Fri-Sat. And don't forget that GL opened on more screens than both Thor (who had less 3D screens) and XFC (who had no 3D screens)

 

[J.Howlett]

It baffles me the word of mouth on Super 8. It's a pretty flick, but we saw it done way better in the early 80's by Spielberg.

Why watch the knock off?

And I like Abrams. I was so disappointed with Super 8. It was suppose to be my "Inception" this summer.

 

[Tony Stark]

I agree somewhat but Thor and XMFC also had steep drop offs from Sunday to Monday and grossed $5M plus on their initial Mondays. I understand that the production costs associated with GL colours this somewhat but the fact remains all three had significant 60% plus drops from Sunday to Monday. Thor - 68% ($5.4M) XMFC -61%($5.4M) and GL -66.1% ($5.1M).

Thor came out before kids were on Summer vacation. You have to look at films that were released in the same time frame, so we're talking both Hulk movies, Fantastic Four ROTSS, all of which had lower drops than GL.

The bigger issue for GL was the 20% drop from Friday to Saturday. Almost no summer blockbuster, even the bad ones have that kind of a drop.

 

[Tony Stark]

It baffles me the word of mouth on Super 8. It's a pretty flick, but we saw it done way better in the early 80's by Spielberg.

Why watch the knock off?

And I like Abrams. I was so disappointed with Super 8. It was suppose to be my "Inception" this summer.

I agree with this. I found Super 8 overrated, and for a film that was supposed to be the new ET, I couldn't take my kids to it because of the language.

I'm a huge Abrams fan as well.

 

[J.Howlett]

Tony,

The lone miracle of Super 8? The emergence of Elle Fanning.

She's extraordinary in the film. When the third act sidelines her, the film dies. You can just feel it.

 

[Rev]

It doesn't have to do with the production costs as much as the ticket sales drops over the weekend:

Friday to Saturday: 22%

Sat to Sun: 9.4%

Sun to Mon: 66.1%

Neither Thor nor XFC had such a steep drop from Fri-Sat. And don't forget that GL opened on more screens than both Thor (who had less 3D screens) and XFC (who had no 3D screens)

Yeah, I see what you are saying. I only meant that if the movie was $100 million cheaper and the same results were occuring it might not be looked at so badly.

 

[dnno1]

World wide gross is now over $80 million.

 

[Sith Scotti]

There will be a sequel with half its budget, and a a new director . I just don't think DC is willing to give up just yet on GL

 

[kedrell]

A sequel will be lucky to make Hellboy numbers.