Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Marvin]

why so low?

was it the critics?
did the audience hate it more than other bad films(that have done better)?

a curious case.

...has Johns opened his page back up for commenting?
I want to ask him about kyle rayner

 

[HighFivingMF]

And who really wants a Green lantern labeled Whopper?

Is it green? If so... Yes.

For some reason.

 

[jmc]

Thing is tough...if the movie were really well received and successful in its North American opening...wouldn't it be good to have staggered releases so that it could build up extra buzz/good WOM to the later ones? I would think that was part of the initial plan, no? But if they recognized near opening that the movie was going to be ill-received, it was probably too late to change the release dates everywhere else.

The reason for the staggered release dates was simply lack of 3D screens worldwide, next week Cars 2 is getting released and then TF3. It had nothing to do with creating buzz or hype, they wanted to take advantage of the extra revenue that 3D brings and releasing it worldwide this week would have given them only a few days to capitalise on it. As it stands now it's backfired on them because now there's a 4 week gaps until the film opens up in the next major markets, and 4 weeks is a hell of a long time for a) bad word to spread, and b) for people to simple download the thing online. Put this down as another bone headed decision of the many bone headed decisions about GL.

 

[HighFivingMF]

...has Johns opened his page back up for commenting?
I want to ask him about kyle rayner

I don't know what page was shut down... I tweeted at him just fine.

 

[KangConquers]

why so low?

was it the critics?
did the audience hate it more than other bad films(that have done better)?

a curious case.

Here's my theory:


1. People didn't like the trailers. They started to like them even less when they had to see them every single time they turned on their TV.
2. Critics reamed the movie.
3. Green Lantern is not an A-list property. Few comic book characters really are. Only Spider-Man and Batman have reached the upper echelon of box office glory (Over 800 Million worldwide) and that was based on popularity, reviews, and general awareness.

 

[Chewy]

Is it green? If so... Yes.

For some reason.

You would eat a green Whopper?!

Do you have a death wish?

 

[KalMart]

The reason for the staggered release dates was simply lack of 3D screen worldwide, next week Cars 2 is getting released and then TF3. It had nothing to do with creating buzz or hype, they wanted to take advantage of the extra revenue that 3D brings and releasing it worldwide this week would have given them only a few days to capitalise on it. As it stands now it's backfired on them because now there's a 4 week gaps until the film opens up in the next major markets, and 4 weeks is a hell of a long time for a) bad word to spread, and b) for people to simple download the thing online. Put this down as another bone headed decision of the many bone headed decisions about GL.

Again...if the movie was really good/successful out of the gate, with good WOM...wouldn't it have still been a good plan?

 

[Marvin]

I don't know what page was shut down... I tweeted at him just fine.

his facebook fan comments, I don't have twittahh
I would like to see his though, would you be so kind as to provide the link?

 

[Poni_Boy]

Again...if the movie was really good/successful out of the gate, with good WOM...wouldn't it have still been a good plan?

Nope. WB wasn't happy to be releasing GL in international theaters the same weekend as Cap in August. They decided it was better to wait for the 3D screens to become available (even though 3D ticket sales are very low right now).

They obviously knew the film would be pirated online (it's already available in close to HD quality) before it hit int theaters. It was a bad call

 

[jmc]

Again...if the movie was really good/successful out of the gate...wouldn't it have still been a good plan?

Why is that a good plan? You're banking on the film being good and word of mouth being strong and the good will of fans not to download the thing. If the cards fell into place than yes it becomes a fortunate outcome, but they haven't and now they've gotta live with the consequences.

 

[Marvin]

Here's my theory:


1. People didn't like the trailers. They started to like them even less when they had to see them every single time they turned on their TV.
2. Critics reamed the movie.
3. Green Lantern is not an A-list property. Few comic book characters really are. Only Spider-Man and Batman have reached the upper echelon of box office glory (Over 800 Million worldwide) and that was based on popularity, reviews, and general awareness.

It's kinda tragic, all the work they put into fixing the marketing. I remember how happy they all were at wonder con and we were happy for them. Must be stressful to finally have the film out there and get this kinda reception.

could be worse though.
I just hope snyder's watching with intent eyes.

 

[HighFivingMF]

his facebook fan comments, I don't have twittahh
I would like to see his though, would you be so kind as to provide the link?

Sure thing, sir. He hasn't said much on the movie.

http://***********/#!/GeoffJohns0

Anyone know which Facebook page? "The Official Geoff johns Fan Page" is still getting comments good and bad, is it another one?

 

[dnno1]

Why do you feel responsible Dnno???

Dnno was convinced the movie couldn't fail.

More than that, I (we) gave our inputs on forums like this and they pretty much listened to us. They made a film that only we fan's could appreciate and as it turned out they might have been right about the Jack Black angle (if they wanted to appeal to adults not aware of Green Lantern).

 

[Poni_Boy]

More than that, I (we) gave our inputs on forums like this and they pretty much listened to us. They made a film that only we fan's could appreciate and as it turned out they might have been right about the Jack Black angle (if they wanted to appeal to adults not aware of Green Lantern).

Sorry, no. Plenty of fans called this movie out for what it was. Providing fan service-throwaway scenes is NOT making a film specifically for fans. That was Scott Pilgrim

 

[jmc]

They don't read these forums.

 

[Gold Samurai]

The first trailer was a mistake

[YT]f8ZPg8uaoR0[/YT]

And then they tried to a more epic 3D trailer


[YT]zNUN9TP0PNY[/YT]


Is it funny? Is it supposed to be a space opera?

 

[dnno1]

Why is that a good plan? You're banking on the film being good and word of mouth being strong and the good will of fans not to download the thing. If the cards fell into place than yes it becomes a fortune outcome, but they haven't and now they've gotta live with the consequences.

So I take it you downloaded a crappy cellphone cam copy and are basing your assessment of the film on that right?

 

[GreenLantern1]

Hmmm, thats weird, all the comments on the Geoff Johns page were gone yesterday along with the comment box.

 

[dnno1]

Sorry, no. Plenty of fans called this movie out for what it was. Providing fan service-throwaway scenes is NOT making a film specifically for fans. That was Scott Pilgrim

There were a hand full of trolls out there that said that the film would bomb and compared it to the other Marvel films, but I wouldn't say plenty of fans (you can't even prove that). The truth of the matter is that these same critics that judged the film as rotten admitted to the fact that the acting was good, that the movie was fun to see, and that the SFx were a lot better than what was presented last fall (within the body of their reviews). To me that's ironic.

 

[Poni_Boy]

There were a hand full of trolls out there that said that the film would bomb and compared it to the other Marvel films, but I wouldn't say plenty of fans (you can't even prove that). The truth of the matter is that these same critics that judged the film as rotten admitted to the fact that the acting was good, that the movie was fun to see, and that the SFx were a lot better than what was presented last fall (within the body of their reviews). To me that's ironic.

So it's ironic to praise the good qualities of a film but negate the bad ones? We have to accept a film as a whole without breaking down what could (or should) have been improved?

Right

 

[KalMart]

Why is that a good plan? You're banking on the film being good and word of mouth being strong and the good will of fans not to download the thing.

That's what I'm saying...was it too risky for them to have enough confidence in
GL to make this a good plan? And do you think they were able to recognize how good/successful (or not) Gl would be in time to change those release dates?

If the cards fell into place than yes it becomes a fortunate outcome, but they haven't and now they've gotta live with the consequences.

It's no more or less a risky leap of faith than sinking hundreds of millions of dollars in any film.

 

[Poni_Boy]

It's no more or less a risky leap of faith than sinking hundreds of millions of dollars in any film.

Theatrical Release 101: You ALWAYS want to release your movie in as many venues as possible on the same day. That will guarantee the largest possible box office performance. Anything else increses the likelihood of failure by adding unknown variables (reviews, word of mouth, competition, etc)

 

[KalMart]

Nope. WB wasn't happy to be releasing GL in international theaters the same weekend as Cap in August. They decided it was better to wait for the 3D screens to become available (even though 3D ticket sales are very low right now).

They obviously knew the film would be pirated online (it's already available in close to HD quality) before it hit int theaters. It was a bad call

That's what I'm saying, though. They were waiting for 3D and were hedging their bets on it. There must have been some sort of upside to the prospect that hinged on it being a success here. Overambitious? Probably....looking at it now, that is.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Here's my theory:


1. People didn't like the trailers. They started to like them even less when they had to see them every single time they turned on their TV.
2. Critics reamed the movie.
3. Green Lantern is not an A-list property. Few comic book characters really are. Only Spider-Man and Batman have reached the upper echelon of box office glory (Over 800 Million worldwide) and that was based on popularity, reviews, and general awareness.

I think the timing hurt it as well. This is the third superhero film released in 6 weeks. Regardless of quality, it probably would have done at least a little better if it was first out of the gate instead.

No question though in my mind, the big killer was the lousy reviews and word of mouth. The Saturday gross shouldn't have dropped the way it did.

 

[The Morningstar]

So now with Deadpool: If GL was a huge success a Deadpool film wouldn't be much of a possibility. Not that I was pulling for this to fail, but I always wanted one regardless of how this did. Could he still do it?

After this disaster he probably can't wait to do Deadpool. And i don't see why he can't do it. Deadpool will probably be made for like, 50 million dollars, be rated R and aim at being a cult film, not a blockbuster.