Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[KalMart]

Theatrical Release 101: You ALWAYS want to release your movie in as many venues as possible on the same day. That will guarantee the largest possible box office performance. Anything else increses the likelihood of failure by adding unknown variables (reviews, word of mouth, competition, etc)

Right...so again, what was the upside that they saw/gambled on in staggering the releases (JUST the 3D screens?), or were they somehow forced to take the dates they could get? I can't see this as being an arbitrary decision made with the flip of a coin or the like. Maybe they put too much stock in 3D bolstering the movie's take...be it good or bad.

 

[Rock Sexton]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3190&p=.htm

I don't want to hear anymore comparisons to Thor or Hulk .... this film is an utter box office failure.

 

[jmc]

That's what I'm saying...was it too risky for them to have enough confidence in
GL to make this a good plan? And do you think they were able to recognize how good/successful (or not) Gl would be in time to change those release dates?


It's no more or less a risky leap of faith than sinking hundreds of millions of dollars in any film.

You get more bang for your buck worldwide opening weekend because word of mouth doesn't spread as quickly, this is all about 3D screen availability Kal, WB had a date for GL in Nth America where there are plenty of 3D screens available but didn't suit other parts of the world because there isn't the same number of 3D screens available. This wasn't about confidence in the film, it was about milking 3D revenue.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Right...so again, what was the upside that they saw/gambled on in staggering the releases (JUST the 3D screens?), or were they somehow forced to take the dates they could get? I can't see this as being an arbitrary decision made with the flip of a coin or the like.

They thought 3D alone would make the movie profitable. Boy were they wrong. Forget Thor (which was 3D as well but opened in a softer month on fewer screens), X-Men: First Class was not in 3D, opened in less screens and had little to no merchandise tie-ins. What does that tell you about a $125 mil marketing strategy?

 

[Poni_Boy]

I don't want to hear anymore comparisons to Thor or Hulk .... this film is an utter box office failure.

Circle gets the square

 

[KalMart]

You get more bang for your buck worldwide opening weekend because word of mouth doesn't spread as quickly, this is all about 3D screen availability Kal, WB had a date for GL in Nth America were there are plenty of 3D screens available but didn't suit other parts of the world because there isn't the same number of 3D screen available. This wasn't about confidence in the film, it was about milking 3D revenue.

And that's what I was asking....do you think they overestimated/depended on 3D sales' impact on the gross...regardless of the movie being good or bad? Or would that have somehow worked out if the film was really successful? If it's really that obvious that 3D wouldn't make up for the time lost in theaters, even if this was a great/uber-successful launch, then heck yeah...someone lost their head over there. I'm just thinking if it's that obvious a no-win, someone must have seen a possible upside somewhere.

 

[KalMart]

They thought 3D alone would make the movie profitable. Boy were they wrong.

Then yeah...that was pretty stupid...unless someone was convinced they had another Avatar on their hands.

Forget Thor (which was 3D as well but opened in a softer month on fewer screens), X-Men: First Class was not in 3D, opened in less screens and had little to no merchandise tie-ins. What does that tell you about a $125 mil marketing strategy?

It says that they were either pretty high, or pretty desperate with what they were working with.


Or both.

 

[The Morningstar]

I just can't understand how WB were so dumb. Were they expecting the next Avatar here or something?

It's like, I can't actually comprehend how utterly disastrous this whole thing is. It's kinda just sinking in now... we've officially got one of the biggest, most high profile flops ever on our hands right here.

 

[KalMart]

I just can't understand how WB were so dumb. Were they expecting the next Avatar here or something?.

Maybe it was for the same reasons why they pushed the 'space opera' aspect so much in advertising.....they knew what kind of movie they had on their hands and were hoping that the eye-candy would save its bacon?

 

[jmc]

And that's what I was asking....do you think they overestimated/depended on 3D sales' impact on the gross...regardless of the movie being good or bad? Or would that have somehow worked out if the film was really successful? If it's really that obvious that 3D wouldn't make up for the time lost in theaters, even if this was a great/uber-successful launch, then heck yeah...someone lost their head over there. I'm just thinking if it's that obvious a no-win, someone must have seen a possible upside somewhere.

I think they thought 3D would save the movie regardless. They were flat arse wrong.

 

[Gamma Burst]

So, it flopped at the box office... I'm not surprised.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

I love how people are sweeping the fact under the rug, the fact that the movie has only been out for two days or three days.

Two or three days doesn't equal three months let alone two months.

 

[JP]

I love how people are sweeping the fact under the rug, the fact that the movie has only been out for two days or three days.

Two or three days doesn't equal three months let alone two months.

It's not going to have amazing legs.

 

[The Morningstar]

I love how people are sweeping the fact under the rug, the fact that the movie has only been out for two days or three days.

Two or three days doesn't equal three months let alone two months.

This movie won't be in the cinemas for two months.

Unless there is a literal miracle, this movie is one of the biggest flops ever.

Unless it actually has a bigger weekend next week, this movie is doomed.

Cars 2 is gonna damage it. Transformers 3 will wipe it off the Earth. Which is ironic, because i'm sure Transformers 3 will be a crap movie that deserves to flop too.

 

[Rock Sexton]

I love how people are sweeping the fact under the rug, the fact that the movie has only been out for two days or three days.

Two or three days doesn't equal three months let alone two months.

What do you expect to happen with some of the worst word of mouth in history and Transformers DOTM on deck in 10 days?

Put a fork in her.

 

[akfj]

I don't want to hear anymore comparisons to Thor or Hulk .... this film is an utter box office failure.

[YT]wcW_Ygs6hm0[/YT]

 

[Tony Stark]

There was an ariticle I read a few days ago, that 3D has basically run it's course.

But the tepid response to 3D is hardly an excuse for this cinematic turd. When you make a movie that's worse than Fantastic Four, the audience is going to react negatively.

The funny thing is, by enforcing the review embargo so late, Warner may have actually salvaged a few million for this film. Had the reviews been out a week in advance, I doubt the film would have broke 50M.

 

[Rock Sexton]

[YT]wcW_Ygs6hm0[/YT]

LOL. Can somebody edit that with Reynold's Hal Jordan riding the bomb?

 

[Chewy]

What do you expect to happen with some of the worst word of mouth in history and Transformers DOTM on deck in 10 days?

Put a fork in her.

Easy with the hyperbole, there

Even dreck like Fantastic Four 2 and Ghost Rider didn't have "some of the worst word of mouth in history"

Although I agree with the general point of your post. It can't survive Cars and Transformers, not to mention the staggered international release dates

 

[Marvin]

This movie won't be in the cinemas for two months.

Unless there is a literal miracle, this movie is one of the biggest flops ever.

Unless it actually has a bigger weekend next week, this movie is doomed.

Cars 2 is gonna damage it. Transformers 3 will wipe it off the Earth. Which is ironic, because i'm sure Transformers 3 will be a crap movie that deserves to flop too.

you must be so conflicted with feelings right now.

 

[FreeRadical]

Just read that Green Lantern made only £717,000 this weekend over here in the UK.

Stick a fork in it, this film is done.

Only a miracle can save Green Lantern.....

 

[Rock Sexton]

Easy with the hyperbole, there

Even dreck like Fantastic Four 2 and Ghost Rider didn't have "some of the worst word of mouth in history"

Although I agree with the general point of your post. It can't survive Cars and Transformers, not to mention the staggered international release dates

What else should I call the WOM then?

 

[Chewy]

What else should I call the WOM then?

Not good.

 

[Episode29]

When a summer blockbuster drops 20% from opening Friday to Saturday it's done.

 

[Rock Sexton]

Not good.

It's more than not good though. Honestly, in my 32 years on this planet I've rarely seen this kind of critic/GA backlash and negative buzz. Perhaps that's how I should've described it.