Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Poni_Boy]

Actually does, most of the time they release the correct amount for the budget.

This film isn't going to make a profit during it's theater run, WB would be fortunate to break even after blu-ray/dvd sales, merchandise etc.

Film industries nowadays want to see a profit during the theater run, why do you think we always get romatic comedies with a budget of 25-50 million?

Studios release actual figures to places like AOL, Yahoo, BOM, Deadline ,etc because they don't want those journos digging through quarterly and yearly reports (which are public record anyway).

 

[merced]

Where else is it going to pull major money from overseas?

Not sure. To be honest I don't think it will hit 300 million WW.

 

[Liam_H]

Look at something like Transformers 2, a film that was maybe 10 times worse than GL, yet it still had legs despite the terrible terrible reviews because it had awesome robot battles that drew the audience in. GL just didn't click with the regular movie goer. GL will struggle to get to 125 domestic.

Friends who explain to me liking TF2 for that reason still makes no sense to me because the movie had terrible robot battles.

Sorry for going off topic, just had to get that out there.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Personally I think that TF3 is going to slightly underperform. Bay is begging theaters to do his 3D right because he foolishly believes that the huge prices for 3D tickets have nothing to do with it's demishing popularity in the states and they doing sneak peaks on Tuesday for a 3rd in a franchise. I think that the director and studio are nervous about whatever internal tracking numbers that they have.

Underperforming for this film is still doing 300 to 325mil though. Count in the 3D price hike and I wouldn't be surprised if it sold less tickets than the first.

Still should do gangbusters overseas, they never seem to punish franchises for being terrible. That sounded ugly American of me but it's true.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Personally I think that TF3 is going to slightly underperform. Bay is begging theaters to do his 3D right because he foolishly believes that the huge prices for 3D tickets have nothing to do with it's demishing popularity in the states and they doing sneak peaks on Tuesday for a 3rd in a franchise. I think that the director and studio are nervous about whatever internal tracking numbers that they have.

Underperforming for this film is still doing 300 to 325mil though. Count in the 3D price hike and I wouldn't be surprised if it sold less tickets than the first.

Still should do gangbusters overseas, they never seem to punish franchises for being terrible. That sounded ugly American of me but it's true.

See, this is why I don't understand the argument that "movies aren't making money this summer." Sure they are, people are just being choosy of which ones to go watch (3D especially). From what I noticed, the only shockers of the summer are Hangover 2 overperforming and GL underperforming. Everything else is pretty much as expected

 

[Liam_H]

Still should do gangbusters overseas, they never seem to punish franchises for being terrible. That sounded ugly American of me but it's true.

This is the reason Pirates 4 is gonna cross 1 Billion worldwide; also due to the fact people overseas are not tired of terrible 3D which is one of the reasons its making so much.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Personally I think that TF3 is going to slightly underperform. Bay is begging theaters to do his 3D right because he foolishly believes that the huge prices for 3D tickets have nothing to do with it's demishing popularity in the states and they doing sneak peaks on Tuesday for a 3rd in a franchise. I think that the director and studio are nervous about whatever internal tracking numbers that they have.

Underperforming for this film is still doing 300 to 325mil though. Count in the 3D price hike and I wouldn't be surprised if it sold less tickets than the first.

Still should do gangbusters overseas, they never seem to punish franchises for being terrible. That sounded ugly American of me but it's true.

Agreed.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Agreed.

That avatar is pretty funny.

 

[rogue trooper]

Come on!

The downturn didn't hurt Thor or Pirates - which was an awful film. Or Cars which outperformed expectations.

...but one has to take into account the oversaturation of the market also; in this case "superheroes". First "Thor". Then, almost immediately came "X-Men:First Class", and then almost immediately "Green Lantern" followed.

People become weary.

....and I just hope "Captain America" isn't hurt due to this.

 

[akfj]

If superhero fatigue doesn't hurt it, then Harry Potter certainly will.

 

[Liam_H]

^ Very true but its not gonna be as bad as some people think.

 

[akfj]

Interesting to see that Cowboys & Aliens comes out the week after that. I think the box office for that one is still up in the air until the reviews come out.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Oh people just like to overpredict Harry Potter year after year. This is supposedly the one thats going to beat Avatar domestically!

Cowboys and Aliens looks to freakin serious for the name it has. I'm waiting for a set of fun previews.

 

[Spider-Fan]

If superhero fatigue doesn't hurt it, then Harry Potter certainly will.

If the movie is good, superhero fatigue will do nothing. TDK was the 4th comic movie in 2008. It did fine last I checked.

 

[Liam_H]

Interesting to see that Cowboys & Aliens comes out the week after that. I think the box office for that one is still up in the air until the reviews come out.

Whenever that trailer pops up when I'm watching a movie and the title appears; some people are still laughing thinking that its a spoof or something.
I really hope that doesn't hurt the performance.

 

[akfj]

If the movie is good, superhero fatigue will do nothing. TDK was the 4th comic movie in 2008. It did fine last I checked.

I agree, and you don't need to go back to re-check those numbers.

 

[rogue trooper]

If the movie is good, superhero fatigue will do nothing. TDK was the 4th comic movie in 2008. It did fine last I checked.

.....nevertheless "Hellboy 2" and "The Incredible Hulk" didn't excatly make a splash, as they followed "Iron Man".

 

[Spider-Fan]

.....nevertheless "Hellboy 2" and "The Incredible Hulk" didn't excatly make a splash, as they followed "Iron Man".

But, First Class and GL didn't exactly make splashes, either. FC did okay. GL not well. Thor was only one that did well so far, and it wasn't exaclty like following Iron Man. It's not audience fatigue. If Cap is good, people will see it.

 

[Rock Sexton]

.....nevertheless "Hellboy 2" and "The Incredible Hulk" didn't excatly make a splash, as they followed "Iron Man".

Let's see in TIH's case Norton refused to do publicity and there's was confusion as to whether it was a sequel to that travesty that was Ang Lee's Hulk.

 

[rogue trooper]

But, First Class and GL didn't exactly make splashes, either. FC did okay. GL not well. Thor was only one that did well so far, and it wasn't exaclty like following Iron Man. It's not audience fatigue. If Cap is good, people will see it.

Well, maybe it is fatigue, maybe it isn't(and I'm not suggesting it is the sole reason). None of us here really knows a "definitive" answer. All we can do is theorize.

...still, "The Dark Knight"'s release date did have a significant gap between the release date of "The Incredible Hulk", and ofcourse was more hyped up than TIH and Hellboy 2. And TIH and "Hellboy 2" were "good".

 

[Spider-Fan]

Well, maybe it is fatigue, maybe it isn't. None of us here really knows a "definitive" answer. All we can do is theorize.

...still, "The Dark Knight"'s release date did have a significant gap between the release date of "The Incredible Hulk", and ofcourse was more hyped up than TIH and Hellboy 2. And TIH and "Hellboy 2" were "good".

And Cap has over a month between when it and GL were released. About the same as TDK and TIH, and less than TDK and Hellboy 2.

 

[rogue trooper]

And Cap has over a month between when it and GL were released. About the same as TDK and TIH, and less than TDK and Hellboy 2.

True dat. That does make me feel a bit hopeful.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

GL will be all but forgotten by the time C.A comes out. I still think that too many comicbook movies have been released but C.A is an A-lister and if he hits the same buttons Spider-Man, Iron Man and Batman Begins did I could see 200mil+.

I'm not saying it's a lock to make 200mil but I could see it happening.

 

[DIRECTOR]

65% drop this weekend, that is pretty bad. What's weird is that this movie will probably get a sequal, but Superman Returns won't............

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^This movie has no chance of getting a sequel, the studio is just pretending for now. They always say that every movie is getting a sequel no matter how big a dud it is.