Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tony Stark]

145 for the weekend, that's an excellent internal multiplier of the actual hold. I think Dead Man's Chest only made 135 or so for almost the exact same Friday. Marvel is due for a less than 60% drop, and I feel with the lack of competition this will have a chance to get to 400m. The big question will be international, but I think it at least get 900m

 

[NJCaliboy]

Forbes always goes in-depth with their wknd box office reports:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/05/07/box-office-guardians-2-scores-super-145m-weekend/amp/

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 earned a whopping $145 million over its opening weekend. It is the biggest debut weekend, by a lot, for any MCU film that doesn’t feature Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man. It is the biggest debut weekend for a comic book superhero movie that doesn’t feature Batman, Spider-Man or Iron Man. It is the 17th-biggest debut weekend ever between The Twilight Saga: New Moon ($142m) and Furious 7 ($147m, both in 2D natch). And if these numbers hold up, it’ll be a whopping 54% increase from the first Guardians‘ $94.3m debut weekend three summers ago. That’s the biggest opening weekend jump ever for a second film where the first film opened higher than $71m on its opening weekend. If you want to compare it to the Avengers movies (including Civil War) that opened on this weekend, then yeah it’s a lot lower. But by any other rational standard, this is a best-case-scenario jump.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 earned $56.25 million on Friday, counting $17m in Thursday previews. When you remove the Thursday figures, you’re left with a $39.25m in “pure” Friday grosses. So when I note that the James Gunn sequel earned $51m on Saturday, that’s a whopping 30% increase from “pure Friday” to Saturday. Comparatively, that means Guardians 2 had a better “pure Friday” to Saturday jump than Captain America: Civil War (+21), Iron Man 3 (+17%), GOTG (+16%),The Avengers (+12%) and Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1%). So yeah, word-of-mouth and kid-powered business is absolutely having an effect.* And the film is yet more proof that, in an era of “preach to the converted” franchises that squeak out 2-2.25x weekend multipliers, the MCU plays to general audiences as much as it does to hardcore fans.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 earned $56.25 million on Friday, counting $17m in Thursday previews. When you remove the Thursday figures, you’re left with a $39.25m in “pure” Friday grosses. So when I note that the James Gunn sequel earned $51m on Saturday, that’s a whopping 30% increase from “pure Friday” to Saturday. Comparatively, that means Guardians 2 had a better “pure Friday” to Saturday jump than Captain America: Civil War (+21), Iron Man 3 (+17%), GOTG (+16%),The Avengers (+12%) and Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1%). So yeah, word-of-mouth and kid-powered business is absolutely having an effect.* And the film is yet more proof that, in an era of “preach to the converted” franchises that squeak out 2-2.25x weekend multipliers, the MCU plays to general audiences as much as it does to hardcore fans.

Speaking of which, that 2.57x weekend multiplier puts it right in the comfort zone of “normal” for an MCU debut weekend. It is now the tenth film out of 15 MCU offerings to score a debut weekend multiplier between 2.49x (Guardians of the Galaxy) and 2.58x (Thor). And among the now-fabled early May kick-off debuts, it ranks sixth behind only The Avengers ($207 million), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($191m), Captain America: Civil War ($179m), Iron Man 3 ($174m) and Sony’s Spider-Man 3 ($151m, back in 2007 and sans 3D). So yeah, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is another “breakout sequel,” which is doubly impressive when you consider that the franchise started with a $94m debut weekend. So where does it go from here?

Well, that obviously depends on legs. Barring a miracle, we shouldn’t expect too much competition from King Arthur (May 12) and blockbusters tend to thrive alongside the likes of Snatched (May 12) and Everything, Everything (May 19). And since Alien:
Covenant (May 19) and Baywatch (May 25) are hard-R entertainments, this leaves Guardians 2 as the only blockbuster game in town until Walt Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales on Memorial Day weekend and then Wonder Woman on June 2nd. As a general rule, MCU pull weekend-to-final multipliers of over/under 2.4x, 2.7-2.8x or 3x higher.

So if it plays like Captain America: Civil War (2.27x), Iron Man 3 (2.35x), Avengers: Age Of Ultron (2.4x), Thor: The Dark World (2.42x), Iron Man 2 (2.43x) or The Incredible Hulk (2.43x ), then we’re looking at a final domestic total of between $330m and $353m. The somewhat standard MCU 2.72-2.75x multiplier (Thor, Captain America: The First Avenger, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Doctor Strange), puts Guardians 2 at between $392m and $399m domestic.

If it ends up going the leggy distance like Iron Man (3.12x), The Avengers (3x), Guardians of the Galaxy (3.5x) or Ant-Man (3.16x), then there you go. Presuming the first Guardians is off the table (it’s not August and this movie isn’t any kind of surprise), we’re looking at a best-case scenario gross of $435-$460 million. But if we’re being realistic it’s probably going to fall into one of the lower two categories, which is just fine. Sure, there is a shot that the film grosses a little less domestically than the first one, due to more upfront demand and all. But even if it ends up closer to $350m than $400m, it’s still all-but-sure to be the biggest live-action movie of the summer in terms of domestic gross.

Of the summer offerings, only Despicable Me 3 has a realistic shot at the title, with Spider-Man: Homecoming and (unlikely, but possibly) Wonder Woman existing as possible spoilers. For the record, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 does not have to cross $400 million to be a success any more than it has to top $1 billion worldwide to be a success. Speaking of which, the film earned a whopping $49m in China this weekend, setting the stage for a likely $106-$123m total in the world’s second-biggest moviegoing marketplace. The film has made $282.6m overseas for a whopping $427.6m worldwide.

For reference, Avengers: Age of Ultron had $626m of its eventual $1.4 billion worldwide total after the second weekend and Iron Man 3 had $680m (56%) out of $1.2b worldwide. And
yeah, The Avengers had $641m (42%) at the end of its second worldwide weekend toward an eventual $1.5 billion global cume but Captain America: Civil War had $673m of an eventual $1.1b global gross after the same period. So where does this leave Guardians 2? Well, if we play the odds, we’re looking at a worldwide global cume of between $737m and $1.017b worldwide. That’s a lot of wiggle room, but remember that anything over the $890m gross of Spider-Man 3 (in 2007 and sans 3D) makes Guardians 2 the biggest comic book superhero movie that doesn’t star Batman or Iron Man. And no, Spider-Man doesn’t star in Captain America: Civil War any more than the Mummy Returns.

 

[Vincanws]

Assuming this movie does 'average' of $737m and $1.017b then sounds like about $877m is around where this may be going.

 

[terry78]

Not too shabby of course. It ain't no Fast 8 yet, but....

 

[TheVileOne]

Solid opening. Above the Saturday weekend predictions which had it finishing at $138-$142 million. I think the earliest projections were way overshooting though with about $160 million.

The good news is that King Arthur isn't looking like major competition for Guardians.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The Saturday number is encouraging but I don't know if I believe that it's only going to drop 26% on Sunday. I'm thinking more like 30% but we'll see. The point in the movie recovered and that could be good news for its legs going into the future so maybe it won't collapse the same way Civil War did, we'll see. I really think the lack of comp it's second weekend matters because I don't think that Civil War or Age of Ultron had any huge competition their second weekends and they dropped off the face of the Earth. Either it's going to drop hard over the next couple weeks or it isn't.

It needs of 400 million domestically and 600 overseas to make a billion so we'll see what happens. Don't think that's a guaranteed but we have to wait and see what the legs are going to be like.

 

[TheVileOne]

I'm thinking more like $350 million+ rather than $400 million, but we'll see.

First movie did $333 million domestically. I only don't want to over-estimate its domestic take when it's May and there are a still a lot of big movies due out this month.

 

[StormC]

TWS is the only Marvel sequel with significantly better reception than its predecessor, which is probably why it's also the only Marvel sequel with impressive legs. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[def28]

GOTG should be in good shape for the next few weeks being the only film with heavy family/all ages appeal. Until Pirates at least.

 

[terry78]

Yeah, aside from Snatched which will catch the counterprogramming demo, the rest of May seems to be kinda lackluster from what I'm hearing about the rest of the big releases. I'm more excited for June this year.

 

[TheVileOne]

TWS is the only Marvel sequel with significantly better reception than its predecessor, which is probably why it's also the only Marvel sequel with impressive legs. I'll believe it when I see it.

Iron Man 3 had a significantly better reception than Iron Man 2, so it's not the only sequel.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

TWS is the only Marvel sequel with significantly better reception than its predecessor, which is probably why it's also the only Marvel sequel with impressive legs. I'll believe it when I see it.

TWS also opened low enough that the multiplier is easier to get.

As to the GotG V2 numbers, the China and Korea numbers are pretty crazy considering what the first film did in those two places.

Disney having a very good start to the year with this and BatB. Which is closing in on 1.2bil.

 

[Tony Stark]

This will definitely have a Winter Soldier, Doctor Strange type multiplier. King Arthur is going to tank and Alien Covenant has some of the worst marketing I've seen in a long long time. Prometheus opened to 50m but it had a spectacular marketing and I think long time Alien fans were happy to see the return of Ridley Scott and a film more in line with the original.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This will definitely have a Winter Soldier, Doctor Strange type multiplier. King Arthur is going to tank and Alien Covenant has some of the worst marketing I've seen in a long long time. Prometheus opened to 50m but it had a spectacular marketing and I think long time Alien fans were happy to see the return of Ridley Scott and a film more in line with the original.

What is wrong with the Alien marketing?

 

[InCali]

When all is said and done, it would be interesting to look at the difference in exchange rates and see what the effect is on WW BO #s. I tend to think that adjusted for inflation numbers are mind numbingly dumb and am not saying GotG BO #s should be "adjusted", but it would be interesting to see what the effect would have been.

Maybe someone out there can pick a time when the exchange rates were more favorable and let us know what the equivalent of, say, 100M now would have been back then (or vice versa). I realize this isn't exact because exchange rates from country to country are different and China is more impactful than, say, Latveria (don't want to offend anyone other then Dr. Doom), but a general idea would be interesting.

I don't want much, do I? t:

 

[DarthSkywalker]

When all is said and done, it would be interesting to look at the difference in exchange rates and see what the effect is on WW BO #s. I tend to think that adjusted for inflation numbers are mind numbingly dumb and am not saying GotG BO #s should be "adjusted", but it would be interesting to see what the effect would have been.

Maybe someone out there can pick a time when the exchange rates were more favorable and let us know what the equivalent of, say, 100M now would have been back then (or vice versa). I realize this isn't exact because exchange rates from country to country are different and China is more impactful than, say, Latveria (don't want to offend anyone other then Dr. Doom), but a general idea would be interesting.

I don't want much, do I? t:

The exchange rate around the world is apparently down from 2014. So all things considered, this GotG V2 is being a bit weighed down in comparison to its predecessor.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

You do realize you made an actual prediction and are actually wrong right? This movie is clearly going to make more then the first. How is that the first movie "hitting the ceiling"?

I was pretty upfront that I'll admit if I'm wrong. It's just a prediction and we get box office predictions wrong all the time. It's just that some people blame the movie when their prediction is wrong instead of owning it.

So after the Saturday number, maybe it gets to 350m. That's more than the first, but not by a lot. It's still in the same range as the first movie so the ceiling isn't really moving much. It still means you shouldn't realistically expect a GotG movie to get over 400m.

And that would make my prediction one heck of a lot closer than your "1 billion" was. There are a lot of predictions on this thread that are a lot further off than mine.....yours included.

 

[InCali]

When all is said and done, it would be interesting to look at the difference in exchange rates and see what the effect is on WW BO #s. I tend to think that adjusted for inflation numbers are mind numbingly dumb and am not saying GotG BO #s should be "adjusted", but it would be interesting to see what the effect would have been.

Maybe someone out there can pick a time when the exchange rates were more favorable and let us know what the equivalent of, say, 100M now would have been back then (or vice versa). I realize this isn't exact because exchange rates from country to country are different and China is more impactful than, say, Latveria (don't want to offend anyone other then Dr. Doom), but a general idea would be interesting.

I don't want much, do I? t:

The exchange rate around the world is apparently down from 2014. So all things considered, this GotG V2 is being a bit weighed down in comparison to its predecessor.

Thank you Dr. Specificity.

I think I knew that part. Obviously neither one of us is an economist specializing in global currency.

 

[Tony Stark]

What is wrong with the Alien marketing?

Not even close to the marketing Prometheus had, which had a ton of cool viral bits on YouTube. Fassbender is the most notable actor in the film and they only show a couple of shots with him. Prometheus only opened to 50M, so I expect AC to open significantly lower, considering the negative reaction to Prometheus. Speaking personally this film there's nothing of the characters they've marketed that seem all that interesting.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I was pretty upfront that I'll admit if I'm wrong. It's just a prediction and we get box office predictions wrong all the time. It's just that some people blame the movie when their prediction is wrong instead of owning it.

So after the Saturday number, maybe it gets to 350m. That's more than the first, but not by a lot. It's still in the same range as the first movie so the ceiling isn't really moving much. It still means you shouldn't realistically expect a GotG movie to get over 400m.

And that would make my prediction one heck of a lot closer than your "1 billion" was. There are a lot of predictions on this thread that are a lot further off than mine.....yours included.

Well considering I didn't make a prediction...

This movie is going to sail by 800m WW, should probably easily top 900m, and is going to do a higher domestic number. But it is so funny that you want to suddenly hide behind the domestic number, which you are probably still wrong about.

You said the first film was the ceiling. That was clearly not true. It is hard to admit you are wrong isn't it?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Thank you Dr. Specificity.

I think I knew that part. Obviously neither one of us is an economist specializing in global currency.

I thought you meant the other way around. Leave me alone unspohicasted movie goer.

Not even close to the marketing Prometheus had, which had a ton of cool viral bits on YouTube. Fassbender is the most notable actor in the film and they only show a couple of shots with him. Prometheus only opened to 50M, so I expect AC to open significantly lower, considering the negative reaction to Prometheus. Speaking personally this film there's nothing of the characters they've marketed that seem all that interesting.

Eh, they are emphasizing the Alien aspect. That alone makes it "better marketing" for the average film goer imo. I also find the tv spots to be pretty fun.

Personally I can see it opening around or a bit higher then Prometheus if the reviews are decent, just because they stuck the brand name back on there.

 

[InCali]

I thought you meant the other way around. Leave me alone unspohicasted movie goer.

I certainly will, but don't call me unspohicasted because I'm not. I shouldn't even be talking to you at all because your "predictions" are so far off. Oh, wait, you didn't make a prediction.....never mind.

I'm just asking you to weigh in with your expertise in international monetary exchange rates....cause I'm too damn lazy to figure it out myself.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I certainly will, but don't call me unspohicasted because I'm not. I shouldn't even be talking to you at all because your "predictions" are so far off. Oh, wait, you didn't make a prediction.....never mind.

I'm just asking you to weigh in with your expertise in international monetary exchange rates....cause I'm too damn lazy to figure it out myself.

My only expertise is in the difference in lightsaber designs from one Star Wars film to another. Oh and all of the quality of cinema.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Doctor Strange is not a sequel and it wasn't released in May so comparing GOTG 2 legs to it is nonsense. You have to compare it to other MCU sequels. I think it'll get more than a 2.4 that's all I can say. I personally don't see it hitting 400 but I think it could get very close if the reception is good enough.

The growth in the Chinese market doesn't seem like it's going to be that special. The first one made in 96mil and this one's going to make like probably 120mil at best. I mean it did good but I don't think it's some amazing number.

Listen the film is a big success so that's the takeaway from these numbers ultimately.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Doctor Strange is not a sequel and it wasn't released in May so comparing GOTG 2 legs to it is nonsense. You have to compare it to other MCU sequels. I think it'll get more than a 2.4 that's all I can say. I personally don't see it hitting 400 but I think it could get very close if the reception is good enough.

The growth in the Chinese market doesn't seem like it's going to be that special. The first one made in 96mil and this one's going to make like probably 120mil at best. I mean it did good but I don't think it's some amazing number.

Listen the film is a big success so that's the takeaway from these numbers ultimately.

It is increasing exponentially, with a worse exchange rate...