Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tony Stark]

If the reviews keep coming in the way they have, I'd be surprised if King Arthur reaches $10 million this weekend.

What's strange is that this is normally a time the studios do a huge ad push and it's been pretty quiet, a few TV ads, but I haven't seen any push ads on the web, or anything of that nature. This leads me to believe that the studio is just going to quietly let this one bomb and then take the loss.

 

[legendkillin]

If the reviews keep coming in the way they have, I'd be surprised if King Arthur reaches $10 million this weekend.

It looks like a wanna be 300 with all the stop and start action.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

What's strange is that this is normally a time the studios do a huge ad push and it's been pretty quiet, a few TV ads, but I haven't seen any push ads on the web, or anything of that nature. This leads me to believe that the studio is just going to quietly let this one bomb and then take the loss.

The second weekend of May has pretty much become a dumping ground for the studios.

 

[InCali]

The second weekend of May has pretty much become a dumping ground for the studios.

Is that because the first weekend in May is the big summer intro?

 

[terry78]

Somewhat. Though that Amy Schumer/Goldie Hawn flick may do well for counterprogramming.

 

[kguillou]

You know what's funny, I think the month of May has officially in my brain become synonymous with MARVEL. Like, whenever I think of the month of September, I think back to school, November-Thanksgiving, December-Christmas, when I think of May I think "new Marvel movie to kick off summertime." What other movie franchise can say that? lol

 

[Iceman]

You know what's funny, I think the month of May has officially in my brain become synonymous with MARVEL. Like, whenever I think of the month of September, I think back to school, November-Thanksgiving, December-Christmas, when I think of May I think "new Marvel movie to kick off summertime." What other movie franchise can say that? lol

Same here! Hopefully it will be the same for Star Wars and December going forward.

 

[Snaaaaake!]

The second weekend of May has pretty much become a dumping ground for the studios.

Well to be fair Neighbors did take TASM2's lunch that 2nd weekend in May.

But then again that was Sony and it was TASM2. MCU has no such concerns with 2nd weekends in May.

 

[Snaaaaake!]

You know what's funny, I think the month of May has officially in my brain become synonymous with MARVEL. Like, whenever I think of the month of September, I think back to school, November-Thanksgiving, December-Christmas, when I think of May I think "new Marvel movie to kick off summertime." What other movie franchise can say that? lol

Same here! Hopefully it will be the same for Star Wars and December going forward.

These are both good points. May stands out for it's MCU releases just as much as it does for Memorial Day. Xmas is still Xmas though.....Till the kids get older anyway

 

[Tony Stark]

I went back and looked at Avenger's second weekend, because I couldn't remember what came out that weekend, and since it was the last May that I could remember being this weak. It was Dark Shadows and it made 29M, which is going to seem like a total success compared to the two movies coming out this week. Snatched may offer some demographic choices for women, but considering it's not lifting the review embargo, it looks to be another piece of trash, throw away film.

This whole summer is freakin nutty with release dates though. Who in the hell decided to release Dunkirk and Valerian on the same weekend?

 

[Darepool]

Dunkirk is obviously looking to follow the Saving Private Ryan path. I'm sick of historical war films so I could care less but I think Valerian may bomb either way with that budget.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If Valerian can pull a Pacific Rim or Lucy and pull in 400 m WW, it won't be considered a bomb.

 

[Darepool]

I'd be happy if I liked it as much as PR

I'll be seeing it opening weekend.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Nice bump to $12 million Tuesday.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...g-snatched-amy-schumer-box-office-1202088670/

 

[Leenie]

Well to be fair Neighbors did take TASM2's lunch that 2nd weekend in May.

But then again that was Sony and it was TASM2. MCU has no such concerns with 2nd weekends in May.

Oh man, I completely forgot about that.

Yeah, I don't think Marvel has anything to worry about with the new (and apparently panned?) Amy Schumer comedy. Especially when GOTG2 is pretty much a comedy in of itself (and a good one, to boot).

 

[MahvelBaby!]

This things going to kick ass til Alien Covenant I believe. it will have legs.

 

[Zarex]

Deadline is predicting a big second weekend - $66M to $73M - and a BO drop of between 50 and 55%.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...g-snatched-amy-schumer-box-office-1202088670/

 

[Iceman]

That would be great and a small drop.

 

[Tony Stark]

Deadline's predictions are right in line with what I was thinking. Both Snatched and King Arthur are getting slammed by critics. That with good WOM on GOTG2 should keep the drop under the typical 60% front-loaded drops we see in this genre.

 

[InCali]

Maybe my musings about 40M for M-Th and a 70M weekend aren't completely crazy. It still seems optimistic, but, ultimately, doable. That would put it at about 255M after next weekend. A 2X multiplier of next weekend's BO would have it pushing 400M (if it gets to 70M). This might have stronger legs than I thought. I don't think Alien will take it's legs out from under it. It will certainly attract some of the people, but there's still a lot of the non-R rated public out there.

 

[InCali]

Deadline's predictions are right in line with what I was thinking. Both Snatched and King Arthur are getting slammed by critics. That with good WOM on GOTG2 should keep the drop under the typical 60% front-loaded drops we see in this genre.

Remember the 1st one's drops? Man, some of those were infinitesimal....Avatar style drops (being released in August helped though...).

EDIT: I'm hearing an awful lot of people saying they want to see it 2 or 3 times and that it gets better. That bodes well for repeat business. I plan on seeing it again. The last 2 movies I saw multiple times was GotG1 and Ant-Man (took family).

 

[MahvelBaby!]

I want to see this bad boy at least 2 more times before alien Covenant , maybe a 4th after alien covenant to take my mind off the gore

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That would be great and a small drop.

Yup, it would be. FWIW boxoffice.com is going more conservative at $61 million.

 

[legendkillin]

You know what's funny, I think the month of May has officially in my brain become synonymous with MARVEL. Like, whenever I think of the month of September, I think back to school, November-Thanksgiving, December-Christmas, when I think of May I think "new Marvel movie to kick off summertime." What other movie franchise can say that? lol

Yep May is basically Marvel except we didn't have one in 2014. I see MCU movies as events. Going back to Avengers 1 I have made it a mission to see MCU movies on Thursday release.

 

[Tony Stark]

Remember the 1st one's drops? Man, some of those were infinitesimal....Avatar style drops (being released in August helped though...).

EDIT: I'm hearing an awful lot of people saying they want to see it 2 or 3 times and that it gets better. That bodes well for repeat business. I plan on seeing it again. The last 2 movies I saw multiple times was GotG1 and Ant-Man (took family).

Yes and it got a huge boost over Labor Day. I believe it's the only Marvel Studios film to have 4 weeks as the no. 1 movie. Avengers only had 3 weeks, but yeah being in August helped, but the one thing to keep in mind it had those low drops the week the first Ninja Turtles came out, which actually performed above expectations.