Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[iEquinox]

But it will still failed to live up to the initial expectation. Both BATB and Furious 8 made a billion, and GOTG2 was just as anticipated as those two movies. If it can't even crack 900M then I think it will be disappointing at the very least.

Depends on whose expectation. Only about a third of people in the poll expected it to hit a billion, while over a third were expecting it to end up under $900M. That means the average expectation according to the poll would be slightly under 950M. Which is exactly where it would have ended up if exchange rates were the same now as they were when the first guardians was released. Most people who voted probably had no idea the exchange rates changed and didn't take that into account in their predictions.

Furious 8 or BatB's successes aren't really relevant in this discussion. Did Avatar's 2.7B make the Avengers' 1.5B into a disappointment? Nope, so why would BatB or Furious 8 making 1.2B+ make GotG2's 800M+ less impressive? Clearly BatB and Furious 8 were more anticipated. Furious 8 made more money OS than any superhero movie ever accomplished, just like Furious 7 did before. GotG2 was never going to beat that.

 

[iEquinox]

So what's the actual numbers of this thing?

As of Thursday:
Domestic: $266,737,474
+ Foreign: ~$401,300,000
=WW: $668,037,474

 

[Spiderine]

A lot of people nowadays are predicting way to high for some of these films. Never thought this would sniff a billion. I actually had it just making ever so slightly north of 900 million in a crawl. Its still making more than the first. Which is great trend for this series.

 

[Chesterfield]

As of Thursday:
Domestic: $266,737,474
+ Foreign: ~$401,300,000
=WW: $668,037,474

Thanks for the update.

 

[iEquinox]

The friday estimate is $8,804,000.

That's very good, only 46.6% down from last friday. Alien doesn't seem to be affecting it very much. (Not surprising since the target audience isn't completely the same, and alien is only opening with about 40M, maybe even less).

Deadline is predicting $33.6M to $35M (-48.5% to -46.4%) for the weekend now.

 

[HammerDown]

Domestically:
1st weekend - GOTG = 94M / GOTG2 = 146M
2nd weekend - GOTG = 42M / GOTG2 = 65M
3rd weekend - GOTG = 25M / GOTG2 = "32M"

If the "32M" projection is correct then by the end of the third weekend...
GOTG = 222M
GOTG2 = 299M (increase of 77M)

It's starting to loose money on the week days but the weekends are still holding that increase of around 70M in relation to the first movie. It will gradually decrease during the week only to come back up a bit by the weekend. It's going to be very interesting to see how the movie holds on it's 4th and 5th weekend(GOTG did 17M on both).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Deadline has bumped the number up a bit, thinks it could hit $35 million this weekend.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-c...ng-everything-box-office-previews-1202097673/

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Some estimates put Alien around 36 m for the weekend.

Could GotG2 possibly beat Alien this weekend?

 

[Iceman]

If Alien was that low then there would be a chance.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

How is Aliens projecting so low after the good Thursday? That would be incredibly front loaded.

 

[StormC]

There was positive buzz going into the movie but audience reaction has been mixed leaning to bad.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

There was positive buzz going into the movie but audience reaction has been mixed leaning to bad.

Yeah, it's audience score on RT is just 65%. For comparison, King Arthur has a 78%...

 

[TheVileOne]

A lot of critics I think were really just overwhelmed by the nostalgia of Scott doing another movie with Alien in the title with the Xenomorphs in it.

The movie's not that genuinely good. Not a lot of really big scary moments. The creatures are sort of an after-thought.

Scott doesn't really improve on the problems of Prometheus.

 

[B]

A lot of critics I think were really just overwhelmed by the nostalgia of Scott doing another movie with Alien in the title with the Xenomorphs in it.

The movie's not that genuinely good. Not a lot of really big scary moments. The creatures are sort of an after-thought.

Scott doesn't really improve on the problems of Prometheus.

Not good to hear, I didn't actually like Prometheus when I saw it & was hoping Covenant would fix it. I've yet to see it, I'll maybe see if I can watch Prometheus again before I go see it & give it another chance.

 

[StormC]

A lot of critics I think were really just overwhelmed by the nostalgia of Scott doing another movie with Alien in the title with the Xenomorphs in it.

The movie's not that genuinely good. Not a lot of really big scary moments. The creatures are sort of an after-thought.

Scott doesn't really improve on the problems of Prometheus.

I feel like this happens a lot with franchise movies that bring back iconic elements. Both T3 and ROTS got good reviews (having Arnie and Darth Vader respectively) but had more mixed reaction from fans.

 

[2kt09]

I feel like this happens a lot with franchise movies that bring back iconic elements. Both T3 and ROTS got good reviews (having Arnie and Darth Vader respectively) but had more mixed reaction from fans.

lol I just now found out that T3 was reviewed favorably by RT. WTF
I would have never guessed that score.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Some estimates put Alien around 36 m for the weekend.

Could GotG2 possibly beat Alien this weekend?

We shall see.

 

[TheVileOne]

Guardians would need a nice surge on Saturday and Sunday to beat Alien Covenant. I guess it depends on how poorly Alien Covenant does with audiences and what kind of worth of mouth it gets.

Regardless, you can't put lipstick on these pig numbers for Alien Covenant.

 

[Tony Stark]

It may be close but I think Guardians takes the weekend. A.C. got a B cinema score. That's terrible and the same as Prometheus. This thing is going to tank.

 

[Raiden]

It may be close but I think Guardians takes the weekend. A.C. got a B cinema score. That's terrible and the same as Prometheus. This thing is going to tank.

I hate to say it, but I hope Ripley Scott isn't involved with part 3 like he said he is. I think it's time the franchise look for a new director or maybe bury it for awhile until another innovative mind can take it to a new frontier.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-c...ng-everything-box-office-previews-1202097673/

3RD UPDATE, Saturday 11:25 PM: Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 came back strong on Saturday with an estimated $15.3M, +74% to a point where some analysts thought for a second it would overtake 20th Century Fox’s Alien: Covenant which fell 21% from Friday with $12M today. Alien: Covenant is still on top for the weekend with an estimated $36.1M, but now it’s the third highest debut in the series behind Prometheus ($51M ) and Alien vs. Predator ($38.3M). GOTG2 is just under $35M in its third weekend. Running cume is poised to be $301.7M.

 

[StormC]

I'm going to see GOTG2 again tomorrow so I'm sure I'll be able to push it over the edge to beat Alien.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-c...ng-everything-box-office-previews-1202097673/

Let's see if Guardians 2 can maintain a stronger hold on Sunday and manage to top Alien for the weekend. I'd be surprised if the actuals on Monday say Guardians wins again.

 

[Lilbaz]

I hate to say it, but I hope Ripley Scott isn't involved with part 3 like he said he is. I think it's time the franchise look for a new director or maybe bury it for awhile until another innovative mind can take it to a new frontier.

Should have told cameron to forget avatar and do the alien films.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...-gotg-ii-472-m-everything-everything/?page=41


1 N Alien: Covenant Fox $36,000,000 - 3,761 - $9,572 $36,000,000 $97 1
2 1 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 BV $35,062,000 -46.3% 4,347 - $8,066 $301,799,474 $200 3