Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[TheVileOne]

So the film is easily going to surpass the domestic and worldwide takes of the original. It's just not going to pass those $1 billion marks.

I wonder where it's domestic ceiling is though. I'm sort of thinking $365 million-ish right now

 

[marcvader]

So will it be closing on 340 mil after this weekend not including Memorial Day? I'm going with a $380-390 domestic finish.

 

[iEquinox]

So the film is easily going to surpass the domestic and worldwide takes of the original. It's just not going to pass those $1 billion marks.

I wonder where it's domestic ceiling is though. I'm sort of thinking $365 million-ish right now

$365M should be the floor, not the ceiling. $365M is about what it would make if it did the exact same numbers Civil War did from this day forward.
It's already beating Civil War's numbers, and should continue to do so (Civil War had the weakest legs of all MCU movies)

It's getting pretty close to Age of Ultron's daily numbers (it even beat Age of Ultron on Monday and Tuesday, while it will have a steeper wednesday drop than Ultron, no doubt, possibly finishing under AoU on both wednesday and thursday). If it can maintain AoU's numbers it would end with about $389M. Even though GotG2 has shown smaller drops than AoU so far, it remains to be seen if it can keep up with AoU's numbers this weekend (AoU made 21.7M/28.2M 3 day/4 day weekend, which is slightly on the optimistic side for GotG2), and especially once Wonder Woman comes out. AoU didn't have that much competition on both these weekends, so the competition could hurt GotG2 in comparison. So GotG2 has better legs so far, but will also have stronger competition going forward. AoU also had pretty solid late legs, even if it dropped faster at the start.

It all depends on how well it handles the competition, especially Wonder Woman since it has such a similar demographic. The 5th weekend will tell us a lot about where will end.

Personally I think it'll get to about $380M, since matching AoU while fighting strong competition won't be easy.

 

[TheVileOne]

That will be tough in summer movie season. I'm still thinking $365 million. But I definitely don't see $400 million happening.

 

[StormC]

(Civil War had the weakest legs of all MCU movies)

Damn, did it really? That's interesting. I wonder if it was because Civil War was so inundated in the MCU continuity that all the diehards rushed out to watch it, while GOTG2 is a less-demanding movie that only requires the first movie to watch (and even without it can be followed pretty okay), meaning more walk-up business.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Damn, did it really? That's interesting. I wonder if it was because Civil War was so inundated in the MCU continuity that all the diehards rushed out to watch it, while GOTG2 is a less-demanding movie that only requires the first movie to watch (and even without it can be followed pretty okay), meaning more walk-up business.

Couldn't have helped that it followed right on the heels of BvS....a movie about two heroes fighting...one a millionaire in a suit of armor and the other a boy scout.

That would have killed the novelty if BvS were well liked. That it burned the GA was a double whammy to the potential CW audience.

 

[metaphysician]

Eh, I think the poor legs had much more to do with simply that it was somewhat of a downer of a movie. Few people came out of Civil War going "Damn, I want to see that again right now!"

 

[Zarex]

A major reason for CW's weak legs was that it was a poor entry point for new fans. I went to see the film with someone who had never seen any of the prior MCU films - I know, right? - and I spent about 10 minutes trying him to get him up to date on the 9 prior films that directly tie into the movie - IM, TIH, IM2, CA:TFA, TA, IM3, CA:TWS, A:AOU and AM - before giving up. A Phase 4 reboot of sorts makes a lot of sense.

 

[JKKS085]

I hate to toot my own horn but well here's what I predicted back in march:

I can see a marginal increase. Not every sequel does better at the box office regardless of quality or popularity of the first instalment. Also the USD is much stronger against foreign currencies in 2017 than it was in 2014 (about 25% against the euro for instance) which should impact its overseas numbers negatively. I don't know how the competition (King Arthur, Alien Covenant) stacks up against TMNT (2014), but I feel like Vol. 2 comes out in a more competitive spot. 800/900M is where I think it has the potential to end.

The thing is, in my opinion, the likeliest outcome is something in the range of the Iron Man 2 bump. I could be wrong and I am not saying that the movie has no chance at a billion, but all things considered I would be (really) surprised if it even passes 900M. 830/850 millions would be my guess at the moment.

It is quite obviously breaking 850M at this point and even if it might be a stretch I am not entirely rulling 900M out (could pass it by the skin of its teeth). I still cannot wrap my head around the crazy amount of 1B+ predictions this movie received months prior to its release.

 

[Erzengel]

I still cannot wrap my head around the crazy amount of 1B+ predictions this movie received months prior to its release.

The last 3 Marvel Movies released in May have grossed over $1B. Take a movie that received the reception and praise as GOTG and add that to May landing spot. I think it wasn't an out of this world possibility.

 

[Iceman]

Eh, I think the poor legs had much more to do with simply that it was somewhat of a downer of a movie. Few people came out of Civil War going "Damn, I want to see that again right now!"

Yeah, unlike Avengers which ended on a very high note.

 

[StormC]

Eh, I think the poor legs had much more to do with simply that it was somewhat of a downer of a movie. Few people came out of Civil War going "Damn, I want to see that again right now!"

Well...I did.

 

[Erzengel]

I did too.

 

[StormC]

Also, I also posted that I considered 900M the ceiling, but I understand hoping for the big B when it's just 10% more. I think even the billion wishers knew that if it got there, it would be Marvel's smallest billion.

I was more hopeful when the movie didn't implode upon itself like CW did, but I knew if it lost weekend 3, there was no chance for it. 850M+ seems about right. Can't imagine Disney is disappointed when it cost as much as the first but made more. 3 could do even better with the Avengers boost.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Also, I also posted that I considered 900M the ceiling, but I understand hoping for the big B when it's just 10% more. I think even the billion wishers knew that if it got there, it would be Marvel's smallest billion.

I was more hopeful when the movie didn't implode upon itself like CW did, but I knew if it lost weekend 3, there was no chance for it. 850M+ seems about right. Can't imagine Disney is disappointed when it cost as much as the first but made more. 3 could do even better with the Avengers boost.

I'd say $880M WW might happen.

 

[TheVileOne]

It won't reach a billion, but these are still very good numbers for Guardians of the Galaxy.

 

[jr24tw]

Would this movie reach a billion or close to it with the exchange rates of 2014?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Would this movie reach a billion or close to it with the exchange rates of 2014?

It's near impossible to do inflation numbers globally.

So usually adjusting for inflation is reserved for the domestic market only.

 

[iEquinox]

Would this movie reach a billion or close to it with the exchange rates of 2014?

It would get close. Let's say it ends up at 850M WW: 380M DOM and 470M OS, that would have been about 575M OS in 2014.
So with 2014 exchange rates it would have been able to get past 950M WW. Not quite a billion, but it would have been close.

It's near impossible to do inflation numbers globally.

So usually adjusting for inflation is reserved for the domestic market only.

While this is completely true, he wasn't asking for the OS numbers adjusted for inflation, just adjusted for exchange rates. And that's a lot simpler, since exchange rates are very well documented. What makes it even easier in this case is that multiple sources use comparisons between GotG and GotG2's OS numbers adjusted for exchange rates.

 

[rashad]

Same for The Dark Knight.

TDK was a re-expansion. Not a re-release. There is a difference. It was in a single run. July 2008-March 2009. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=darkknight.htm

 

[jr24tw]

It would get close. Let's say it ends up at 850M WW: 380M DOM and 470M OS, that would have been about 575M OS in 2014.
So with 2014 exchange rates it would have been able to get past 950M WW. Not quite a billion, but it would have been close.

Thanks. I still think it's quite impressive for a movie that so far has no ties (except for Thanos) to the rest of the MCU and no Avengers in it.

 

[JKKS085]

The last 3 Marvel Movies released in May have grossed over $1B. Take a movie that received the reception and praise as GOTG and add that to May landing spot. I think it wasn't an out of this world possibility.

That's an over simplification. Out of those 3 movies you have 2 Avengers flicks (even if one is branded as a Captain America release) and one Iron Man film just following the Avengers craze and relying on booming os markets.
Not only in this case has the os growth drastically slowed down, but the exchange rate was an obvious issue from the get go. And again, I can't stress this enough but Guardians was a breakout hit and sequels to breakout hits often fail to reach the same heights as their predecessor's (bearing outside circumstances). The fact that Vol. 2 is going to post an healthy growth, across the board, on a stable budget, over GOTG's staggering performance is no small feat.

 

[Zarex]

Someone needs to alert Disney. Those fools had an grand opening today for an Disneyland ride based on a flop!!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Early indication is that Vol. 2 will make about $24 million for the four-day holiday weekend, putting it around $337 million after Monday.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/pirates...tales-baywatch-box-office-weekend-1202102887/

That should beat Covenant, which is projected at $19 million. Baywatch getting sand kicked in its face, looking like less than $30 million. Pirates 5 looking at $75-80 million, which would be a bit lower than expected. WOM seems better than the reviews so we'll see.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Only $20M away from passing the first Guardians domestic total.