Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[FlareKnight]

In the end it is going to easily surpass my conservative estimate of the 700-800 million range. A very successful sequel financially.

 

[StormC]

Very interested to see if Wonder Woman eats away what's left of this movie's business.

 

[Vartha]

I don't know guys. There are still a few people just this last weekend going to see Gotg2. Joe Jusko just saw it for example. I see GotG2 going a long time, just not at the top every weekend

 

[psylockolussus]

1 billion is out of the question now, it would appear. 900 million seems likely. People, definitely including myself here, need to stop expecting extravagant Iron Man 3 increases for these MCU sequels.

I am not surprised. Gotg is still not that big enough for it to hit the 1 billion mark especially in foreign markets. But $800 million isn't bad at all. I just didn't buy the expectation of the possibility of this hitting the 1 billion mark. Maybe after A3, a gotg movie could hit the 1 billion mark.

 

[marcvader]

I voted 700-800 mil so it met my expectations and I loved the movie.

 

[NHawk19]

We're in week 4 of release and typically these things go about 20. Domestic AoU between weeks 4 & 20 made about 40 million, and Cap 2 made about 30.

I'd say this hits about (Currently $338) 370 domestic from here. If that manages to get to 40% of total. (Currently Domestic is 43%). That means about $850-$900 million .

 

[iEquinox]

We're in week 4 of release and typically these things go about 20. Domestic AoU between weeks 4 & 20 made about 40 million, and Cap 2 made about 30.

I'd say this hits about (Currently $338) 370 domestic from here. If that manages to get to 40% of total. (Currently Domestic is 43%). That means about $850-$900 million .

While it might seem to make sense on first glance that it will make more OS than domestically from this point, it won't even get close. About 75% of it's remaining gross will be made domestically. It only has about 15M more to go OS.

And it should easily go past 370M DOM. Iron Man 3 made over 41M after the 4th weekend was over. GotG2 has shown stronger legs and made more this weekend than IM3 did. It should be able to keep up with IM3 from this point forward to get to at least 375M DOM with all signs pointing to it making a few million more than that.

 

[NHawk19]

While it might seem to make sense on first glance that it will make more OS than domestically from this point, it won't even get close. About 75% of it's remaining gross will be made domestically. It only has about 15M more to go OS.

And it should easily go past 370M DOM. Iron Man 3 made over 41M after the 4th weekend was over. GotG2 has shown stronger legs and made more this weekend than IM3 did. It should be able to keep up with IM3 from this point forward to get to at least 375M DOM with all signs pointing to it making a few million more than that.

I don't think so on the stronger legs. Numbers are from Box Office Mojo.

Iron Man 3 earned 89 mill week 2, 46 mill week 3, & 27 mill week 4. So far Guardians is a 83, 46.5, & 25 respectively. Simply with inflation, if those ticket sales quantities remained the same that $ value should be larger.

I still think 370 is the top out domestic though. That's a 9.5% increase. Applying that same increase to the current overseas amount (450), and knowing some of the larger markets just released the past two weeks, means (370) + (450 *1.095) = 862. If there are still markets remaining I think it'll end around 900 maybe just under.

 

[chicagodave]

I plan on seeing it for a third time this weekend. Nothing else seems interesting.

 

[HammerDown]

98.6M in China.

 

[Vincanws]

Assuming this movie does 'average' of $737m and $1.017b then sounds like about $877m is around where this may be going.

Still reckon about $877M.

 

[TheVileOne]

$877 million is still higher than $873 million.

 

[iEquinox]

I don't think so on the stronger legs. Numbers are from Box Office Mojo.

Iron Man 3 earned 89 mill week 2, 46 mill week 3, & 27 mill week 4. So far Guardians is a 83, 46.5, & 25 respectively. Simply with inflation, if those ticket sales quantities remained the same that $ value should be larger.

I still think 370 is the top out domestic though. That's a 9.5% increase. Applying that same increase to the current overseas amount (450), and knowing some of the larger markets just released the past two weeks, means (370) + (450 *1.095) = 862. If there are still markets remaining I think it'll end around 900 maybe just under.

Not sure where you got those numbers from but boxofficemojo has slightly different ones.

But anyways those numbers clearly show that GotG2 has better legs than IM3. Week 4 numbers can't be compared because week 4 isn't over yet. GotG2 will easily pass 30M on week 4 compared to IM3's 28.7M. So those weekly numbers show clear growth compared to IM3, by multiple millions per week. There's no way it's ending with only 370M DOM. Even if it only does Civil War's numbers from this weekend forward, it will still get to 370M DOM. Civil war made 15.4M on memorial day weekend compared to GotG2's 20.8M. It won't suddenly drop below Civil War's daily gross. If anything the gap will get bigger since Civil War was the MCU movie with the weakest legs.

And it has no chance to end with (450 *1.095) = 492.75M OS. It also didn't open in any new markets in the past 2 weeks, not sure where you got that from.

That would be about 40M more OS. It made 9.5M this weekend OS. How is it going to get a 4.2x multiplier off that? Even a 2x multiplier would be good. 40M more OS is not happening, I can guarantee you that.

 

[NHawk19]

Not sure where you got those numbers from but boxofficemojo has slightly different ones.

But anyways those numbers clearly show that GotG2 has better legs than IM3. Week 4 numbers can't be compared because week 4 isn't over yet. GotG2 will easily pass 30M on week 4 compared to IM3's 28.7M. So those weekly numbers show clear growth compared to IM3, by multiple millions per week. There's no way it's ending with only 370M DOM. Even if it only does Civil War's numbers from this weekend forward, it will still get to 370M DOM. Civil war made 15.4M on memorial day weekend compared to GotG2's 20.8M. It won't suddenly drop below Civil War's daily gross. If anything the gap will get bigger since Civil War was the MCU movie with the weakest legs.

And it has no chance to end with (450 *1.095) = 492.75M OS. It also didn't open in any new markets in the past 2 weeks, not sure where you got that from.

That would be about 40M more OS. It made 9.5M this weekend OS. How is it going to get a 4.2x multiplier off that? Even a 2x multiplier would be good. 40M more OS is not happening, I can guarantee you that.

A fair point about the week not being over yet. I did just use the Estimated amount to date. The growing legs is still a question of how much in the past 4 years ticket prices have inflated, and whether that inflation is why we're seeing the increase or if it's actual # of tickets sold.

Here's the IM 3 numbers

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=ironman3.htm

Here's Vol2

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=marvel17a.htm

the two weeks I think I'm going to have to concede as I was looking at the "As-of" column

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=marvel17a.htm

That 4.2 multipliers is for the next 16 weeks. I think it's do-able. We're still missing numbers, now that you've pointed out I was using the wrong column, back to 5/21 in a lot of countries. That leaves 17 potential weeks of reports to come in.

 

[Vartha]

I voted 700-800 mil so it met my expectations and I loved the movie.

Mine too I went with 500-600 mil lol I knew I would love it either way tho. Gunn proved himself to ME with the first film lol

 

[InCali]

$877 million is still higher than $873 million.

It'll end up right around BvS numbers with a lot more domestically and less internationally. It also appears to have cost about 50M less than BvS. I don't compare them because it's a MCU vs DCEU thing to me. I liked BvS just fine, but it is kind of crazy that GotG is in the same Box Office ballpark as a movie with THE 3 most iconic superheroes in existence. When you consider the fact that a lot of Disney's expenses go to pay one of their other subsidiaries, that lowers the real cost of doing business.

I don't doubt that WB made money on BvS (though less than they'd hoped would be my guess), but GotGv2 must have raked major bank from BO numbers alone.

 

[iEquinox]

A fair point about the week not being over yet. I did just use the Estimated amount to date. The growing legs is still a question of how much in the past 4 years ticket prices have inflated, and whether that inflation is why we're seeing the increase or if it's actual # of tickets sold.

Here's the IM 3 numbers

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=ironman3.htm

Here's Vol2

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=marvel17a.htm

the two weeks I think I'm going to have to concede as I was looking at the "As-of" column

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=marvel17a.htm

That 4.2 multipliers is for the next 16 weeks. I think it's do-able. We're still missing numbers, now that you've pointed out I was using the wrong column, back to 5/21 in a lot of countries. That leaves 17 potential weeks of reports to come in.

Let's take a look at the weekly difference between GotG2 and IM3 so far:
Week 1: -$29,263,665
Week 2: -$5,890,744
Week 3: +$387,812
Week 4: +$2,495,744 and counting (still 3 days left this week)

Clearly GotG2 is showing stronger legs than IM3, right?

GotG2 has made more than IM3 did every day for 9 days straight now. I don't think that's going to change anytime soon. So 375M would be the absolute minimum it gets. It's very likely that it'll do more than that.

As for the OS numbers, there are not 17 potential weeks of reports left to come in. The current OS total is the total after sunday, and it includes every single market.
The per market totals will be updated later, but not a single dollar will be added to it's OS total when they do, because they're already included.
The per market totals also don't show every market.

And the 4.2 multiplier is not do-able. It requires a miracle. Let's compare to Doctor Strange, which made 8.94M on it's 5th OS weekend. GotG2 made 9.52M in it's 5th OS weekend, and will probably drop more than DS next weekend with Wonder Woman coming out in most markets.
DS made about 15M after it's 5th OS weekend. There's no way GotG2 can nearly triple that number.

 

[iEquinox]

And exactly as I expected, the memorial day estimate was way off. Still have no idea how they came up with the $4,512,000 estimate.

The actual monday number is $6,282,030.

So it made $27,189,151 over the 4-day weekend.

Totals:
$340,505,078 Domestic
$453,183,382 Foreign
$793,688,460 Worldwide

 

[LucDisfilm19]

It'll make $800M WW on Wednesday.

 

[InCali]

And exactly as I expected, the memorial day estimate was way off. Still have no idea how they came up with the $4,512,000 estimate.

The actual monday number is $6,282,030.

So it made $27,189,151 over the 4-day weekend.

Totals:
$340,505,078 Domestic
$453,183,382 Foreign
$793,688,460 Worldwide

As Agent 86, Maxwell Smart, would say....."Missed it by THAT much" (holding thumb and forefinger close together). Over 2M off??? They ought to hire you. LOL.

That's a huge number.

BOM had it at - Guardians of the Galaxy 2 $25,153,000

 

[NHawk19]

Let's take a look at the weekly difference between GotG2 and IM3 so far:
Week 1: -$29,263,665
Week 2: -$5,890,744
Week 3: +$387,812
Week 4: +$2,495,744 and counting (still 3 days left this week)

Clearly GotG2 is showing stronger legs than IM3, right?

GotG2 has made more than IM3 did every day for 9 days straight now. I don't think that's going to change anytime soon. So 375M would be the absolute minimum it gets. It's very likely that it'll do more than that.

As for the OS numbers, there are not 17 potential weeks of reports left to come in. The current OS total is the total after sunday, and it includes every single market.
The per market totals will be updated later, but not a single dollar will be added to it's OS total when they do, because they're already included.
The per market totals also don't show every market.

And the 4.2 multiplier is not do-able. It requires a miracle. Let's compare to Doctor Strange, which made 8.94M on it's 5th OS weekend. GotG2 made 9.52M in it's 5th OS weekend, and will probably drop more than DS next weekend with Wonder Woman coming out in most markets.
DS made about 15M after it's 5th OS weekend. There's no way GotG2 can nearly triple that number.

A ticket in 2013 cost $8.13 and a movie ticket now costs $8.84 in 2017. That's a 9% increase. Convert IM3 to today's dollars then do the comparison. That's how you determine legs. I think you'll find that it falls short.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

Week 4 will be very close though.

OS #'s 40 may be optimistic. 20s may be more realistic Are there really no more territories for this to release in?

 

[Joeyjojo72]

So 850 is definite, 875 is probable and 900 a long shot?

 

[InCali]

A ticket in 2013 cost $8.13 and a movie ticket now costs $8.84 in 2017. That's a 9% increase. Convert IM3 to today's dollars then do the comparison. That's how you determine legs. I think you'll find that it falls short.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

Week 4 will be very close though.

OS #'s 40 may be optimistic. 20s may be more realistic Are there really no more territories for this to release in?

I won't get into it, but there are SO many reasons that a simple increase in ticket price isn't a fair comparison. For one thing, higher ticket prices would necessarily discourage a certain group from going back and seeing a movie a second time. Also, if ticket prices don't match general inflation, it weights things one way or the other. Entertainment choices become more or less popular over a period of years, people watch movies (be it more or less) on less than reputable sites on the internet, etc.

We just don't know enough one way or the other to make a valid comparison. There are factors that weight things one way or another and there's no way to know whether lower prices equates to less revenue in a given circumstance.

It's certainly a simple, easy comparison to make, but that doesn't make it a valid one.

 

[InCali]

A ticket in 2013 cost $8.13 and a movie ticket now costs $8.84 in 2017. That's a 9% increase. Convert IM3 to today's dollars then do the comparison. That's how you determine legs. I think you'll find that it falls short.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

Week 4 will be very close though.

OS #'s 40 may be optimistic. 20s may be more realistic Are there really no more territories for this to release in?

BTW, I would say that if you are looking to determine "legs", you would be better served looking at trends than absolute numbers. I'd have to think through the details about exactly how I would do that, but that would be the basic approach to take.

EDIT: And, the trends pointed out by Equinox are pretty clear. You probably don't need to run a trend analysis to figure it out.

 

[iEquinox]

A ticket in 2013 cost $8.13 and a movie ticket now costs $8.84 in 2017. That's a 9% increase. Convert IM3 to today's dollars then do the comparison. That's how you determine legs. I think you'll find that it falls short.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

Week 4 will be very close though.

OS #'s 40 may be optimistic. 20s may be more realistic Are there really no more territories for this to release in?

Even adjusted for inflation, the 4-day weekend for GotG2 is more than IM3 got.

But that's beside the point, because inflation has nothing to do with legs. Adjusting for inflation would not change a single thing in the comparison.
Lower drops = stronger legs. Whether you adjust it for inflation or not makes no difference, because it doesn't change the drops.

Legs are usually defined by the multiplier a movie got. The multiplier is calculated by dividing the total gross by the opening weekend gross. Adjusting for inflation would increase the opening weekend and the total gross by the same percentage. Therefore, the multiplier remains exactly the same.

If you don't believe me, look at the-numbers' definition of legs:

[Legs are] measured by the ratio between their total domestic box office and their largest weekend gross. The higher the ratio, the better the legs.

http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/legs/leggiest

And obviously the "largest weekend gross" = the opening weekend 99% of the time these days.