Solo Han Solo Movie Box office Thread

[Ozbridge]

As OP I'll provide some information on the movie's box office potential:

1. Competitions: A new director was hired last month so I'm not so sure that the movie will be released on the scheduled May 25th (though other blockbusters start production 1 year or less before release date all the time), and I'm quite certain that it won't be moved to Christmas 2018 since Disney already placed Mary Poppins there and it won't move because 4-quadrant musical Mary Poppins need holiday more than Han Solo movie. Technically it can still be released on 12/14 so its 2nd weekend will fall in line with Christmas like TFA and Rogue One, but I think that's a bad idea and will hurt both movies.

Since the situation is quite uncertain I'll just assume that Han Solo movie will still be released on May 25th. Competitors are:

- 3 weeks prior (5/4): Avengers Infinity War
- 2 weeks prior (5/11): Life of the Party (WB PG13 female comedy)
- 1 week prior (5/18): LAIKA stop-motion animation
- No other releases in the same weekend
- 1 week after (6/1): Deadpool 2 (remember that this is R rated), DC Super Hero Girls
- 2 weeks after (6/8): Ocean's 8, Transformer Bumblebee
- 3 weeks after (6/15): The Incredibles
- 4 weeks after (6/22): Jurassic World

2. Double features: The Incredibles on 4th weekend, Ant-Man and the Wasp on 7th weekend.

3. Holidays: Father's Day on 4th weekend, Independence Day on 7th weekend (anything else? I'm not American I don't know).

4. Trivia:

- This movie is the first new SW movie not released the week before Christmas so it won't benefit from holidays but will get summer weekdays and good late leg despite being hurt by new big releases early on.

- Last weekend of May is the traditional release date of Disney's critic-proof cash grabs (like live-action remakes in March/ April, MCU movies in early May and November, Pixar animations on Father's Day weekend and Pixar/ WAS animation in Thanksgiving). In previous years last weekend of May is the release date of PotC (2017), Alice Through the Looking Glass (2016), Tomorrowland (2015), and Maleficent (2014).

- That being said maybe Disney has decided to ditch those blockbusters with middling reception that may or may not break out, put a SW movie in late May and save Chrismas for live action musical remake/ sequel of Disney classic. Last weekend of May now has Han Solo movie (2018) and SW Episode IX (2019), Christmas has Mary Poppins in 2018 and Untitled Disney Fairy-Tale #2 [Live Action] (TM) in 2019 (assuming release schedule won't be changed).

That's it, discuss!

 

[Mysteryman]

As OP I'll provide some information on the movie's box office potential:

1. Competitions: A new director was hired last month so I'm not so sure that the movie will be released on the scheduled May 25th (though other blockbusters start production 1 year or less before release date all the time), and I'm quite certain that it won't be moved to Christmas 2018 since Disney already placed Mary Poppins there and it won't move because 4-quadrant musical Mary Poppins need holiday more than Han Solo movie. Technically it can still be released on 12/14 so its 2nd weekend will fall in line with Christmas like TFA and Rogue One, but I think that's a bad idea and will hurt both movies.

Since the situation is quite uncertain I'll just assume that Han Solo movie will still be released on May 25th. Competitors are:

- 3 weeks prior (5/4): Avengers Infinity War
- 2 weeks prior (5/11): Life of the Party (WB PG13 female comedy)
- 1 week prior (5/18): LAIKA stop-motion animation
- No other releases in the same weekend
- 1 week after (6/1): Deadpool 2 (remember that this is R rated), DC Super Hero Girls
- 2 weeks after (6/8): Ocean's 8, Transformer Bumblebee
- 3 weeks after (6/15): The Incredibles
- 4 weeks after (6/22): Jurassic World

2. Double features: The Incredibles on 4th weekend, Ant-Man and the Wasp on 7th weekend.

3. Holidays: Father's Day on 4th weekend, Independence Day on 7th weekend (anything else? I'm not American I don't know).

4. Trivia:

- This movie is the first new SW movie not released the week before Christmas so it won't benefit from holidays but will get summer weekdays and good late leg despite being hurt by new big releases early on.

- Last weekend of May is the traditional release date of Disney's critic-proof cash grabs (like live-action remakes in March/ April, MCU movies in early May and November, Pixar animations on Father's Day weekend and Pixar/ WAS animation in Thanksgiving). In previous years last weekend of May is the release date of PotC (2017), Alice Through the Looking Glass (2016), Tomorrowland (2015), and Maleficent (2014).

- That being said maybe Disney has decided to ditch those blockbusters with middling reception that may or may not break out, put a SW movie in late May and save Chrismas for live action musical remake/ sequel of Disney classic. Last weekend of May now has Han Solo movie (2018) and SW Episode IX (2019), Christmas has Mary Poppins in 2018 and Untitled Disney Fairy-Tale #2 [Live Action] (TM) in 2019 (assuming release schedule won't be changed).

That's it, discuss!

It will make money.
Nuff Said, for now.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Solo will surprise and make a billion like Rogue One did.

 

[bubbadoom]

While I realize Memorial Day weekend IS the traditional STAR WARS release date - this has not been the case since Disney bought LucasFilms and released THE FORCE AWAKENS.
I am curious why Disney chose not to release this at Christmas time which has proven to be a very profitable time for their last three SW films.
Seems like the end of May is going to dramatically effect INFINITY WAR box office as well - why compete with your own product when it is not necessary?

 

[writer0327]

While I realize Memorial Day weekend IS the traditional STAR WARS release date - this has not been the case since Disney bought LucasFilms and released THE FORCE AWAKENS.
I am curious why Disney chose not to release this at Christmas time which has proven to be a very profitable time for their last three SW films.
Seems like the end of May is going to dramatically effect INFINITY WAR box office as well - why compete with your own product when it is not necessary?

Well I wanna say either Rogue One or TLJ was supposed to release in May, but they got bumped back.

Many thought after the firing of Lord and Miller that Solo would get bumped back as well, but I guess they were able to keep the date.

And by the time May 25 rolls around, A:IW will have already made the vast majority of its money.

 

[Mandon Knight]

I think this maybe a 'casualty' of audience indifference to TLJ. I can't see it doing more than $850 million WW.

 

[Kuwolski]

I figured that would be the best case scenario anyway. I think 759-850 is reasonable.

 

[TheVileOne]

While I realize Memorial Day weekend IS the traditional STAR WARS release date - this has not been the case since Disney bought LucasFilms and released THE FORCE AWAKENS.
I am curious why Disney chose not to release this at Christmas time which has proven to be a very profitable time for their last three SW films.
Seems like the end of May is going to dramatically effect INFINITY WAR box office as well - why compete with your own product when it is not necessary?

Well, let's remember The Last Jedi was originally going to come out for the Memorial Day 2017 period before it got pushed back. Then they pushed it back, and they still kept Han Solo in May 2018. All the directing issues, and they still kept that date.

My guess is that it's important to the shareholders and Disney brass for quarter quotas that the movie still comes out at that release date.

IMHO it's sort of like major developers not delaying major game franchises when they need to in order to fix or polish up the game. They got to meet those release date deadlines because the guys in charge want to meet their quarterly demands.

And as was stated earlier, Infinity War will have already made most of its money by the time Han Solo comes out. I don't think Disney is too worried about that.

Just for example, Disney released Thor Ragnarok and Coco in the same month of November. I'm sure they've doubled on movies they release in the same month as well, the just put them a few weeks apart.

 

[Ozbridge]

Jfc I put Over 650M domestic as a option, while even TLJ can’t make that much now. And worst case scenario Under 350M domestic has a real possibility.

Oh well in my defense when creating the thread I expected that this would perform close to Rogue One.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It’s probably just my own lack of enthusiasm for this talking, but I’m going low on this one, under 350/under 700.

 

[TheVileOne]

I'm sure a lot of clickbait articles and YouTubers are going to be spamming Star Wars fatigue by the time this movie comes out.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I'm sure a lot of clickbait articles and YouTubers are going to be spamming Star Wars fatigue by the time this movie comes out.

I don’t doubt it. Clickbait hot takes are inevitable. But I don’t think fatigue is a big issue. I just wonder exactly who this movie is for outside the core fan base (and if that’s all they’re aiming for, that’s fine). Maybe if they ever produce a trailer it will become clearer to me.

 

[2kt09]

"Before he died, he was alive"
"Relive the moment Solo met Lando and formed the unbreakable bond of a lifetime"

uhhh...under $1 bil projection

 

[TheVileOne]

$1 billion shouldn't be the benchmark for each movie. It's unrealistic. Especially with a new movie every year.

 

[Iceman]

I wouldn't call it fatigue so much as the novelty of getting Star Wars after all these years is not going to be as fresh with the 4th film in 4 years. And now that it looks like China has given up on the franchise it's going to make the big numbers that bit harder to achieve.

 

[TheVileOne]

A movie studio like Lucasfim shouldn't revolve any decisions around China.

How much money does Disney even earn from a gross in China?

 

[Roose Bolton]

$1 billion shouldn't be the benchmark for each movie. It's unrealistic. Especially with a new movie every year.

I don't know if it's necessarily the benchmark, but Solo's production budget is pretty damned high, possibly in the area of $300-400 million with the reshoots, so it's going to need to get that higher intake to turnover any real profit.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't know if it's necessarily the benchmark, but Solo's production budget is pretty damned high, possibly in the area of $300-400 million with the reshoots, so it's going to need to get that higher intake to turnover any real profit.

They are going to take the hit on this one. They are hoping for a trilogy out of it, which is why they were so willing to reshoot it.

 

[BigSams50]

If it has a good trailer? Maybe a billion. If it doesnt? I can see about 600 mill

 

[dataSlave]

A movie studio like Lucasfim shouldn't revolve any decisions around China.

How much money does Disney even earn from a gross in China?

Lucasfilms has never done well in China but other Disney properties have made a bunch of money there. Marvel Universe, Pirates of the Caribbean and their animated stuff have been quite successful.

 

[ludovica]

They are going to take the hit on this one. They are hoping for a trilogy out of it, which is why they were so willing to reshoot it.

I did a quick search but did not find anything, have there been leaks about this?

 

[TheVileOne]

I did a quick search but did not find anything, have there been leaks about this?

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertai...olo-return-part-bigger-plan-article-1.2722170

NY Daily News, so take it with a heaping grain of salt. It might not be a trilogy they want so much as using Ehrenreich as Han Solo again in other stories.

 

[ludovica]

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertai...olo-return-part-bigger-plan-article-1.2722170

NY Daily News, so take it with a heaping grain of salt. It might not be a trilogy they want so much as using Ehrenreich as Han Solo again in other stories.

Thanks.

 

[Ozbridge]

2. Double features: The Incredibles on 4th weekend, Ant-Man and the Wasp on 7th weekend.

Have we got any official stills yet? AMatW will be released on Solo's SEVENTH weekend and it already has trailer. Is this even supposed to be released in May??

 

[batman1]

I truly feel the movie is going to under perform. But we shall see.