Solo Han Solo Movie Box office Thread

[Aximili86]

Exactly. Cost more than Rogue One, so they'll be hoping for slightly more cash, but if it just gets in the ballpark of Rogue One generally they'll consider it fine.

And even then, a 250 mil budget isn't particularly egregiously huge by blockbuster standards as a whole, just Star Wars. Plenty of movies cost what this did.

 

[Iceman]

Those figures posted are Paris, Paris alone. In the face of a week's worth of tracking reports indicating they expect it to have a chance at breaking the frickin' Memorial Day weekend record.

So, yeah, yeah I'd say I'm following it.

"This city drew less-than-expected on the first day, I guess the movie's screwed" seems to be the premise here. Which is moronic.

Clearly it's going to do less than TLJ, but it doesn't even have to get anywhere near that.

That record is 11 years old and not a hard one to break by today's standards. Many big films would murder that record in 3 days, nevermind 4, but the biggest domestic films have chosen different release dates for a number of years. So "frickin'" doesn't really apply.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The cost is irrelevant. LF eats their mistake on who they hired in the first place. This movie is basically Rogue One, part 2. It won't make Rogue One money.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Those figures posted are Paris, Paris alone. In the face of a week's worth of tracking reports indicating they expect it to have a chance at breaking the frickin' Memorial Day weekend record.

So, yeah, yeah I'd say I'm following it.

"This city drew less-than-expected on the first day, I guess the movie's screwed" seems to be the premise here. Which is moronic.

Clearly it's going to do less than TLJ, but it doesn't even have to get anywhere near that.

Have you been following a site like Box Office Theory?

Rogue One would break the 4 day Memorial Day record, with its 3 day. Solo is looking like it won't get there, unless walk up business is something special.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I expected this to be the lowest grossing Star Wars film, which is not inherently bad. But possibly making less than JL WW? WOW!

I don't think TLJ has anything to do with it. This is a prequel with basically just Chewie from TLJ in this (as far as I know). I think we have to wait for Episode IX to see if TLJ hurt the Star Wars BO. I just think for this, it's a prequel film people likely we just less interested in.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Why wouldn't TLJ have anything to do with it, when you consider even how SW, Marvel and DC have all fared recently? Especially as each franchise has clearly worked on the brand recognition of what has come before. TFA lead directly into Rogue One (a prequel film), and both lead directly into TLJ. The Star Wars goodwill was rather fantastic pre-TLJ. What has happened since Rogue One?

TLJ had bad legs for Star Wars. Bad legs.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...50m-less-than-the-force-awakens/#523f58513432

Even Box Office Pro brought it up.

https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-solo-star-wars-story/

It is all over the Box Office Theory threads. TLJ gave the Star Wars brand a bad narrative.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Why wouldn't TLJ have anything to do with it, when you consider even how SW, Marvel and DC have all fared recently? Especially as each franchise has clearly worked on the brand recognition of what has come before. TFA lead directly into Rogue One (a prequel film), and both lead directly into TLJ. The Star Wars goodwill was rather fantastic pre-TLJ. What has happened since Rogue One?

TLJ had bad legs for Star Wars. Bad legs.

https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-solo-star-wars-story/

Even Box Office Pro brought it up.

https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-solo-star-wars-story/

It is all over the Box Office Theory threads.

But Rogue One also only barely crossed 1 billion (WW gross of $1,056,057,273...vastly under TFA's gross). Saga films are always going to be the true test of the power of Star Wars. Not everyone is going to these prequels. Now, Star Wars fatigue may be possible, but I don't think a film with largely unconnected events to this one is what is hurting it. I won't argue TLJ's legs. Clearly TLJ's legs were not great.

In other words, a Saga film would be more equal to an Avengers film, and something like Solo is closer to like a Thor or Captain America film. All those Marvel solos have wide ranges of gross potential.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

But Rogue One also only barely crossed 1 billion (WW gross of $1,056,057,273...vastly under TFA's gross). Saga films are always going to be the true test of the power of Star Wars. Not everyone is going to these prequels. Now, Star Wars fatigue may be possible, but I don't think a film with largely unconnected events to this one is what is hurting it. I won't argue TLJ's legs. Clearly TLJ's legs were not great.

But it did over 500m domestically, on a 3.4x multiplier. The Asia problem is an Asia problem at the international box office, but with very little Vader and Leia, Rogue One, led by new characters, did fantastically. TLJ came in well under a 3x multiplier.

In other words, a Saga film would be more equal to an Avengers film, and something like Solo is closer to like a Thor or Captain America film. All those Marvel solos have wide ranges of gross potential.

A question. Did Ant-Man benefit from being a Marvel film? How about Strange?

Also, is the clear and obvious issue that TFA clearly did well for TLJ (look how it opened), which then lost a lot of steam based on its own merits?

I am not saying Solo doesn't have its own issues beyond that, but to claim that a film that created a lot of backlash has nothing to do with it seems just inaccurate.

 

[C. Lee]

Why are they so f**king intent to screw up the legacy of SWs ? Turning lando into a someone that flirts with anything (ANY FRECKIN THING) that moves......

I am skipping this movie. I rather give my $$$ to JW2 (which i heard has great reviews).

Dude....you trying to say that you didn't catch the sexual tension between him and Chewie in ESB? You need to start paying closer attention to things.

 

[Aximili86]

Have you been following a site like Box Office Theory?

Rogue One would break the 4 day Memorial Day record, with its 3 day. Solo is looking like it won't get there, unless walk up business is something special.

I really do wonder what the hell you're talking about sometimes.

Deadline, 24 hours ago:


http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-...obal-opening-memorial-day-weekend-1202395995/



Advanced tickets for this beat Black Panther's. And the high-end of the projections on this are it could beat the record for the Memorial Day weekend. Rogue One opened just before Christmas, it's a different release window with different expectations - if that was a higher opening few days, fine, that's factored in when they pick the release dates.

Now look, we don't know that this'll reach the high end of the projected expectations, it might end up in the low end. But we have jack-****ity-**** to base that on, as of today. We're going to have to wait, like sane reasonable patient people.

"Durr, it didn't do so well in Paris today, oopsie-daisies duh huh!" means precisely crap on a macro level for the film.

It's a little different than Rogue One in that it cost more. But Disney's going to factor in all the production trouble, different release month to the sagas and Rogue One, all of that. They'll either be happy with the cash results or not, but making a call on it the day it's come out internationally is just laughable.

 

[jmc]

The mathematicians over at Box Office Theory are speculating a less than $100m overseas opening is possible. Solo is down opening day compared to RO in Taiwan by 65%, Italy by 40% and France by 67%.

 

[Spider-Fan]

But it did over 500m domestically, on a 3.4x multiplier. The Asia problem is an Asia problem at the international box office, but with very little Vader and Leia, Rogue One, led by new characters, did fantastically. TLJ came in well under a 3x multiplier.

Agreed, Rogue One performed well and had strong legs. But if it was just success on the heels of TFA, it should have performed even higher. It grossed about half of what TFA did, which is not a bad thing. No one ever expected it to. RO can only be considered a success.

A question. Did Ant-Man benefit from being a Marvel film? How about Strange?

Also, is the clear and obvious issue that TFA clearly did well for TLJ (look how it opened), which then lost a lot of steam based on its own merits?

With Ant-Man and Doctor Strange, you're kind of making my point. Both those made like $600ish WW. Not even close to a base line Avengers film (even AoU made $1.4). Even if those have good multipliers, the fact remains interest in an Ant-Man film is lower than an Avengers film. Same thing with Solo. The interest in Solo is not equal to a standard SW film in the saga and that level of interest will vary. Captain America: Civil War grossed over a billion, Ant-Man made like $600. Thor: Ragnarok grossed like $850. All are Marvel films, but the grosses are all over the place.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I really do wonder what the hell you're talking about sometimes.

Deadline, 24 hours ago:


http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-...obal-opening-memorial-day-weekend-1202395995/



Advanced tickets for this beat Black Panther's. And the high-end of the projections on this are it could beat the record for the Memorial Day weekend. Rogue One opened just before Christmas, it's a different release window with different expectations - if that was a higher opening few days, fine, that's factored in when they pick the release dates.

Now look, we don't know that this'll reach the high end of the projected expectations, it might end up in the low end. But we have jack-****ity-**** to base that on, as of today. We're going to have to wait, like sane reasonable patient people.

"Durr, it didn't do so well in Paris today, oopsie-daisies duh huh!" means precisely crap on a macro level for the film.

It's a little different than Rogue One in that it cost more. But Disney's going to factor in all the production trouble, different release month to the sagas and Rogue One, all of that. They'll either be happy with the cash results or not, but making a call on it the day it's come out internationally is just laughable.

No, they didn't. In the first 24 hours, yes. Notice how the tracking is way behind Black Panther. Even the social media buzz has dropped off.

Listen, I want this to do well. I am hopeful it does and maybe it is the kind of movie that has legs because it is pretty great. Especially as I love the idea of sequels. But I'd suggest going to Box Office Theory. Can't post the link, they say bad words. The forum tracking is legit. The pre-sales aren't just soft for Star Wars, they are soft by Deadpool 2's standards. And Star Wars movies are notoriously frontloaded on opening weekends.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Agreed, Rogue One performed well and had strong legs. But if it was just success on the heels of TFA, it should have performed even higher. It grossed about half of what TFA did, which is not a bad thing. No one ever expected it to. RO can only be considered a success.




With Ant-Man and Doctor Strange, you're kind of making my point. Both those made like $600ish WW. Not even close to a base line Avengers film (even AoU made $1.4). Even if those have good multipliers, the fact remains interest in an Ant-Man film is lower than an Avengers film. Same thing with Solo. The interest in Solo is not equal to a standard SW film in the saga and that level of interest will vary. Captain America: Civil War grossed over a billion, Ant-Man made like $600. Thor: Ragnarok grossed like $850. All are Marvel films, but the grosses are all over the place.

But this is a Han Solo movie. Why would it even be flirting with making less then 300m domestically?

I ask again. If there was no problem with TLJ, why did the legs get swept?

 

[Spider-Fan]

But this is a Han Solo movie. Why would it even be flirting with making less then 300m domestically?

I ask again. If there was no problem with TLJ, why did the legs get swept?

My honest guess is I think interest in the movie is low because we're getting a new Han Solo. While recasting doesn't hurt in some cases, I do think it hurt them here because Star Wars was always firmly a trilogy, then Ford came back for VII. Ford was just not a guy playing Han Solo, he WAS Han Solo. Now we're introduced to a new guy. One who was getting a lot of "He ain't Han!" in trailer reactions. I think that was an uphill battle.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

My honest guess is I think interest in the movie is low because we're getting a new Han Solo. While recasting doesn't hurt in some cases, I do think it hurt them here because Star Wars was always firmly a trilogy, then Ford came back for VII. Ford was just not a guy playing Han Solo, he WAS Han Solo. Now we're introduced to a new guy. One who was getting a lot of "He ain't Han!" in trailer reactions. I think that was an uphill battle.

That is part of it, I agree. I also think the weird promotion and moving it 5 months post TLJ are issues. But lets say TLJ was more well received. Would it not gain more goodwill for the brand?

 

[Spider-Fan]

That is part of it, I agree. I also think the weird promotion and moving it 5 months post TLJ are issues. But lets say TLJ was more well received. Would it not gain more goodwill for the brand?

If there is one negative effect Ep VIII maybe had was cause Star Wars fatigue to set in early. So, I think it is debatable. I am inclined to think the hurdle of replacing Harrison Ford would have impacted them no matter what, though. I think that is the biggest factor.

I do agree on the marketing as well. This was the worst marketed Star Wars film.

 

[Evil Twin]

But this is a Han Solo movie. Why would it even be flirting with making less then 300m domestically?

I ask again. If there was no problem with TLJ, why did the legs get swept?

Why do you think replacing the iconic Harrison Ford with the relatively unknown Alden Ehrenreich is going to excite the general public?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If there is one negative effect Ep VIII maybe had was cause Star Wars fatigue to set in early. So, I think it is debatable. I am inclined to think the hurdle of replacing Harrison Ford would have impacted them no matter what, though. I think that is the biggest factor.

I do agree on the marketing as well. This was the worst marketed Star Wars film.

How?

 

[jmc]

I think it’s a combination for factors. The first is no-one was asking for a Han Solo film, let alone one without Ford. Then there’s the reaction to TLJ which dampen enthusiasm for many. Then there’s the narrative of blaming fans for the reaction to that film. Then there’s competition of AIW and DP2. Then there’s that ridiculous fan boycott, the effectiveness of which is going to be questionable. And then finally the behind the scenes drama.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I always thought this movie would make less then any of the new films for various factors. But the numbers that might come in this weekend suggest something beyond that.

 

[jmc]

I always thought this movie would make less then any of the new films for various factors. But the numbers that might come in this weekend suggest something beyond that.

As I said earlier, I think there has been a gross miscalculation from Lucasfilm about what it is people wanted to see out of Star Wars. I’m not just talking die hard fans, I’m talking regular people.

 

[Spider-Fan]

How?

It's the 4th Star Wars film in 4 years, so it may start feeling less like an event and more ordinary. Which is par for the course, because does anyone think A&W in July is going to be an event movie? So not all MCU films are event films, either. It's just maybe Star Wars is becoming more like the rest in that regard.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Casting the correct and deserved actor for the main role in the first place would have helped this film.

 

[Zant]

The cost is irrelevant. LF eats their mistake on who they hired in the first place. This movie is basically Rogue One, part 2. It won't make Rogue One money.

LF giving this film the greenlight was their mistake, not Phil Lord and Chris Miller, who they are trying to make the scapegoats now.