Just How Important is This Movie?

[Weadazoid]

...........this thread is for you.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=340473

Look for it to make 400 or close it needs to be nearly perfect. But I think 300 is a sure bet. Mainly because of the release date. The release date and the hype that will track this movie is what will push it to 100 + Mill opening.

 

[jmc]

Release date and hype means buggar all. Iron Man 1 only just got to 100 mill on the opening weekend, and a large part of that was down to the appeal RDJ. 100 mill for a film who's character is a harder sell and who's star is a complete unknown is fanciful, how about trying to be a little more realistic in expectations. Just coz Iron Man had surprising success doesn't mean Thor, Cap Am, GL, or what ever other superhero flick is on it way will, sometimes certain characters /properties just don't appeal to the masses, no matter how good it is.

 

[Ahura Mazda]

The reality is if these movies are not financial successes, Marvel Studios will go into financial distress and its shareholders that are Disney will probably not being doing many more movies. Now box office data is not a determinant of the quality of a movie or 'our' enjoyment of it but it does determine the future of the studio that makes it. Now if we wish to get more of these type of movies then we need to hope the movie is a financial success, and part of a few financial successes for Marvel Studios.

I know movie making is a an art form but the reality is that finance rules what movies will be made at the end of the day and the budgets of these movies mean if the movie fails then future movies are put into great doubt.

 

[tmiller2]

I'm thinking this movie's (& Cap's) success holds the fate to Avenger's success & how much freedom Disney gives to Marvel in the movie department.

Totally agree.

I personally think Avengers and Captain America will pull in more numbers, but Thor will be just as good a film, if not better because it has a deeper content.

 

[BoredGuy]

I'm guessing Thor pulls in TIH numbers, while Cap does IM1 numbers(at least in the states) just based on they're level of recognition...tho it could be reversed if Thor is as good as it looks...

unless they really suck, but I'm hopeful that won't be the case.

 

[ddddeeee]

If recognition meant anything then Iron Man would have done Fantastic Four numbers.

Right now Thor is in the most favourable date by far. Green Lantern has Ryan Reynolds who people seem to love. Cap is released after Deathly Hallows II, Transformers III etc. Which is beyond a horrid date because Cap needs to make most of it's money domestic because of the stigma attached to the name.

 

[Chewy]

That movie was gonna struggle enough overseas, it's got no hope against Potter, that film will be massive for weeks, who ever the moron at Marvel was who made that cock up needs his arse sacked. I don't know what was wrong with the original 2012 date, hitting theatres the week after what will be the biggest film of next year is suicide. Boneheaded decision.

Cap never had a 2012 date, it originally had the date that Thor now has.

 

[Spider-Vader]

What's up with people saying Reynolds is a draw? I love the guy, but I don't think he's a draw like Downey or Pitt, etc...

Green Lantern will do good because of name recognization & (hopefully) it being a good movie.

 

[Tony Stark]

If recognition meant anything then Iron Man would have done Fantastic Four numbers.

Right now Thor is in the most favourable date by far. Green Lantern has Ryan Reynolds who people seem to love. Cap is released after Deathly Hallows II, Transformers III etc. Which is beyond a horrid date because Cap needs to make most of it's money domestic because of the stigma attached to the name.

I honestly hope Cap gets pushed back to Christmas 2011, because of this. I think it would do much better under those circumstances. However the last few Potter films had 60% drops in week 2, and Transformers 2 had an even bigger one, plust TF2 left a bad taste in everyone's mouth, so it may not be a horrible date. Still I hope it gets pushed back.

 

[jmc]

Cap never had a 2012 date, it originally had the date that Thor now has.

Didn't they bump it back a year at one stage? could have sworn they altered they date twice.

 

[Chewy]

Didn't they bump it back a year at one stage? could have sworn they altered they date twice.

When the first Iron Man came out they scheduled IM2 for May 2010, Thor for July 2010, Cap for May 2011 and Avengers for July 2011. Thor got bumped to May 2011, Cap to July 2011, and Avengers to May 2012 to allow more time for development.

I think they may have initially planned it for 2009 a while back

 

[FaT_tONle]

You can't push Cap to winter. Has to be a summer adventure movie. TF3 absolutely bloated the summer 2011 slate. Originally Bay was gonna give it at least 3 years but money talks and that was that. July 4th release was there for the taking. Would have set itself up for a monster 4-day opening two weeks before Potter. Still would have a two week separation between everything else. Now it will have to outlast Potter and God knows whatever else rounding out the following summer season. At the end of the day there is nothing Marvel can do. Blame Paramount for not even taking an extra year to possibly revitalize a franchise that is coming off an absolute bomb critically. Then again, they probably realize Bay has run his course and they may as well cash in the remainder sooner than later.

 

[Infinity9999x]

You can't push Cap to winter. Has to be a summer adventure movie. TF3 absolutely bloated the summer 2011 slate. Originally Bay was gonna give it at least 3 years but money talks and that was that. July 4th release was there for the taking. Would have set itself up for a monster 4-day opening two weeks before Potter. Still would have a two week separation between everything else. Now it will have to outlast Potter and God knows whatever else rounding out the following summer season. At the end of the day there is nothing Marvel can do. Blame Paramount for not even taking an extra year to possibly revitalize a franchise that is coming off an absolute bomb critically. Then again, they probably realize Bay has run his course and they may as well cash in the remainder sooner than later.

I wonder why Cap didn't take the July 4th release date. Would have fit better then TF3 certainly.

If recognition meant anything then Iron Man would have done Fantastic Four numbers.

Right now Thor is in the most favourable date by far. Green Lantern has Ryan Reynolds who people seem to love. Cap is released after Deathly Hallows II, Transformers III etc. Which is beyond a horrid date because Cap needs to make most of it's money domestic because of the stigma attached to the name.

I'm not sure where you're getting that Thor is the favorite by far. If I had to choose, I'd say GL is at the top at the moment. Reynolds is a audience favorite, and GL does have a bit more recognition. I do agree that recognition isn't everything, but it does help. There's a reason why Batman, Superman, and Spider-man still do good numbers at the B.O. even when the movies are average or bad.

Thor definitley has a chance to beat it out, but I wouldn't say it's got a much better chance then GL.

 

[Chewy]

He said favorite date.

GL and CA are both released in the middle of a very crowded summer. Thor's release date is the first weekend in May; it kicks off the summer box office and will be the first big budget movie of the season

 

[FaT_tONle]

The kick off is useless unless you open with 100 million. Unless the multipliers are Inception good, it's not gonna make enough in two weeks or before POTC4 comes out. Once MM day hits the competition becomes too fierce. Yeah it has two weeks, but if it doesn't do the damage there it won't be anything noteworthy for a May release. But like people said, it's probably gunning for Trek numbers so just be content with 150 million and feel lucky if it crosses 200. Anything beyond that is gravy.

 

[Infinity9999x]

He said favorite date.

GL and CA are both released in the middle of a very crowded summer. Thor's release date is the first weekend in May; it kicks off the summer box office and will be the first big budget movie of the season

Ah, I see, my mistake. Just ignore my post then ddddeeee.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

He said favorite date.

GL and CA are both released in the middle of a very crowded summer. Thor's release date is the first weekend in May; it kicks off the summer box office and will be the first big budget movie of the season

Eh,not really,when you factor in the release dates and/or when summer officially begins it's course.

 

[Chewy]

Yeah, really. Here's the summer schedule (from BoxOfficeMojo)

May (Details)
• Jumping the Broom (TriS) - 5/6
• Thor (Par.) - 5/6
• Bridesmaid (Uni.) - 5/13
• Priest (in 3D) (SGem) - 5/13
• Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3D) (BV) - 5/20
• The Hangover 2 (WB) - 5/26
• Kung Fu Panda: The Kaboom of Doom (P/DW) - 5/26

June (Details)
• X-Men: First Class (Fox) - 6/3
• Fast Five (Uni.) - 6/10
• Something Borrowed (WB) - 6/10
• Green Lantern (in 3D) (WB) - 6/17
• Cars 2 (BV) - 6/24
• Rise of the Apes (tentative title) (Fox) - 6/24

July (Details)
• Transformers 3 (P/DW) - 7/1
• One For the Money (LGF) - 7/8
• Zookeeper (MGM) - 7/8
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two in 3D) (WB) - 7/15
• The Sitter (Fox) - 7/15
• Winnie the Pooh (BV) - 7/15
• Captain America: The First Avenger (Par.) - 7/22
• Friends with Benefits (SGem) - 7/22
• Cowboys & Aliens (Uni.) - 7/29
• Horrible Bosses (WB) - 7/29

 

[S.A.A.D.]

Yeah, really. Here's the summer schedule (from BoxOfficeMojo)

May (Details)
• Jumping the Broom (TriS) - 5/6
• Thor (Par.) - 5/6
• Bridesmaid (Uni.) - 5/13
• Priest (in 3D) (SGem) - 5/13
• Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3D) (BV) - 5/20
• The Hangover 2 (WB) - 5/26
• Kung Fu Panda: The Kaboom of Doom (P/DW) - 5/26

June (Details)
• X-Men: First Class (Fox) - 6/3
• Fast Five (Uni.) - 6/10
• Something Borrowed (WB) - 6/10
• Green Lantern (in 3D) (WB) - 6/17
• Cars 2 (BV) - 6/24
• Rise of the Apes (tentative title) (Fox) - 6/24

July (Details)
• Transformers 3 (P/DW) - 7/1
• One For the Money (LGF) - 7/8
• Zookeeper (MGM) - 7/8
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two in 3D) (WB) - 7/15
• The Sitter (Fox) - 7/15
• Winnie the Pooh (BV) - 7/15
• Captain America: The First Avenger (Par.) - 7/22
• Friends with Benefits (SGem) - 7/22
• Cowboys & Aliens (Uni.) - 7/29
• Horrible Bosses (WB) - 7/29

I don't count May as being a part of the summer in any shape,I never have.

 

[Chewy]

That's nice, but Hollywood does.

 

[Vartha]

what the heck is "Jumping the broom" ?

 

[S.A.A.D.]

^It's most likely another p.o.s comedy movie,but with a couple of mildly amusing comedy touches at best.

 

[Surfer]

Wow, this next summer looks like it is going to be off the hook with comic book movies. I personally am very excited about seeing all of them (especially Thor & Captain America), but I really hope they don't end up drawing sales from one another in the end.

Surfer

 

[Infinity9999x]

I don't count May as being a part of the summer in any shape,I never have.

Well anyone in any school or college does, and that's a fairly big market of the crowd that hollywood is interested in.

 

[TheCorpulent1]

Wow, this next summer looks like it is going to be off the hook with comic book movies. I personally am very excited about seeing all of them (especially Thor & Captain America), but I really hope they don't end up drawing sales from one another in the end.

Surfer

Yeah, I'm a little worried that people are gonna get sick of superhero movies halfway through next summer.