Logan Logan Box Office Prediction Thread

[Superhero 101]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4271&p=.htm

I feel like 74 is a good number

 

[Sithborg]

9.5 million in Thur previews. Hold onto your butts, because we are in for a ride.

EDIT: And for comparison, that is about what Dr. Strange did in previews. So, I think an 80+ weekend is a pretty sure bet.

 

[Ozbridge]

My prediction: 70M OW, 160M Dom

For WW number I voted 400-500M

 

[LoganPool]

That's a great thursday preview number! Can't wait to see its final weekend numbers.

 

[Sithborg]

My prediction: 70M OW, 160M Dom

For WW number I voted 400-500M

You are not getting a $70 mill opening off a 9.5 mill preview.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Just for reference, here is Logan among other big R-Rated movies -

Deadpool - 12.7 million,
The Hangover Part II- 10.4 million,
Logan - 9.5 million,
Fifty Shades - 8.6 million

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/03/logan-box-office-opening-get-out-the-shack-1202035207/

2ND Update, Midday: Based off a strong Thursday night of $9.5M coupled with matinees, 20th Century Fox/Marvel’s Logan is dashing to an estimated $28M Friday and a $70M-72M weekend opening at 4,071 theaters with all the mutant powers of 381 Imax screens and 580 premium large format auditoriums. At 4,071, Logan is the widest release for an R-rated film and ditto for Imax’s count. Among Wolverine openings, right now Logan ranks second behind 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine which posted $85M. Logan cost just under $100M before P&A. Fox knew they had something special with Logan and showed off the first 30 minutes at a product reel back in December, and also showed off the movie to the L.A. press 16 days before today’s opening. By the way, there’s always a set of outlying aggressive projections that land on our desk. Translation: It wouldn’t be a shocker to see Logan break $77M.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

This is a goodbye to the Wolverine in the X-Men movies.

Even though is sad to see Wolverine go, I feel like this could be good for the x-men movies to allow other hero to shine.

I just hope they're also done with Jennifer Lawrence.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

An insider on boxofficetheory says 32-35 on Friday.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...adline-logan-28m-get-out-6m-shack-5m/?page=13

 

[fancyarcher]

Would be a good number for Logan. I'm hoping it opens bigger than Origins.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Glad it seems to be doing well. This movie deserves to make a lot of money.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/03/logan-box-office-opening-get-out-the-shack-1202035207/

3rd Update, Friday 10:46 PM: Refresh for chart A year after they rattled the box office annals with Deadpool, 20th Century Fox is proving once again that there’s moola in R-rated Marvel movies with the final Wolverine title, Logan. The Hugh Jackman-tentpole is set to record the biggest opening day for an R-rated movie in March with an estimated $32.1M (including Thursday’s $9.5M) and if that figure holds into Saturday morning, it will be the third best opening day overall for the rating after Deadpool ($47.3M) and The Matrix Reloaded ($37.5M). Prior to Logan‘s March record, Warner Bros’ 300 owned the top first day in March for a R-rated movie with $28.1M.

Among opening days for superhero movies, Logan is 7% off the $34.4M earned by 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine, the first movie in the spinoff trilogy.

All of this puts Logan on track for a $79.6M opening at 4,071 theaters (the widest ever for an R-rated pic), which is the second best for the Wolverine franchise after 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($85M), and the seventh best three-day debut for an R-rated movie. Some trackers believe the tenth X-Men movie could scratch $80M, but a lot of that has to do with Saturday night. Currently estimates show Logan being frontloaded. Logan cost just under $100M before P&A, and it’s forecasted to make another $100M overseas this weekend (sans Japan).

At a time when studios have no choice but to plunge the depths of their comic-book superhero universes and gamble on frosh characters, while desperately trying to reboot icons like Batman and Spider-Man, Fox is taking a cue from last year’s Deadpool. Let’s face it, the Pico Blvd. studio has seen the light and knows that fanboys (who just get older) are tiring from PG-13 comic-book tropes where there’s always a big noisy battle to save the world at the expense of leveling a metropolis (how many times have we seen that?). With Logan, Fox has delivered a gritty, blood-dripping, Dirty Harry-like, raw X-Men movie that jives more with the canon’s sensibility than its previous mutant teenage angst-in-tights titles.

Recently, a Fandango poll reported that out of 1,000 moviegoers, 71% contend that more superhero movies should be rated R, while 86% were interested in seeing a more violent, R-rated X-Men movie.

Logan gets an A- CinemaScore which when coupled with its critical reviews, spells for a fantastic future as March will become even more crowded with tentpole titles, i.e. Kong Skull Island, Beauty and the Beast, aiming to capitalize on kids’ spring breaks.

 

[psylockolussus]

Ya, it'd probably be around 90M-100M realistically.

Hugh Jackman and Patrick Stewart are a box office winning combo, and a lot of girls from teens to 40s will want to catch his last film as Wolverine.

I'm counting on the surprise holy s**t factor from 2016 - Deadpool, Brexit, Cubs, Trump, ? Logan

Logan isn't a 2016 movie.

 

[Greenlite]

Logan isn't a 2016 movie.

Let me expand on what I mean, I'm keen to see the surprise elements from 2016 to carry onto 2017's Logan.

Happy?

Still holding out for a 90-100M OW t:

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/03/logan-box-office-opening-get-out-the-shack-1202035207/

4th Writethru Update, Saturday AM: Refresh for chart A year after they rattled the box office annals with Deadpool, 20th Century Fox is proving once again that there’s moola in R-rated Marvel movies with the final Wolverine title, Logan. The Hugh Jackman-tentpole now holds the record for the biggest opening day for an R-rated March release with an estimated $33.1M (including Thursday’s $9.5M). It’s also the third best opening day overall for the rating after Deadpool ($47.3M) and The Matrix Reloaded ($37.5M). Prior to Logan‘s March record, Warner Bros’ 300 owned the top first day in March for a R-rated movie with $28.1M.

Among opening days for superhero movies, Logan is 4% off the $34.4M earned by 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine, the first movie in the spinoff trilogy.

All of this puts Logan on track for a $81M opening at 4,071 theaters. Not only is that the widest release ever for an R-rated pic, but it’s the top opening for the restricted rating in March beating 300‘s $70.8M. Other records: it’s the second best for the Wolverine franchise after 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($85M), and the seventh best three-day debut for an R-rated movie. Some trackers believe the tenth X-Men movie could scratch $80M, but a lot of that has to do with Saturday night. Currently estimates show Logan being frontloaded. Logan cost just under $100M before P&A, and it’s forecasted to make another $100M overseas this weekend (sans Japan).

 

[Weather Witch]

I feel like 40M in the first weekend in the US is possible.

I sure hope makes so much more cause this movie was awesome.

With $33,000,000 from Thursday previews and Friday it'll probably make about twice that.

 

[Iceman]

Will be nice if Jackman's swansong can do well.

 

[Superhero 101]

Great news for Logan it deserves it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

$81m is a very good opening weekend here. Especially for an R-rated flick.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Great news for Logan it deserves it.

Agreed

 

[fobi]

I feel like 40M in the first weekend in the US is possible.

What made you predict such a low number? Ever the worst X-Men films do close to 100m in a weekend. Lol

 

[marieylee]

Looks like it made about another 32M on Sat (from what an insider posted on BOT), so its at what...64M? Should be able to pull at least 21M on Sunday to beat Origins. Hopefully, it can hit 90M!

 

[Sithborg]

If that is the Sat number, then hooboy, things could get interesting Sunday.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/03/logan-box-office-opening-get-out-the-shack-1202035207/

5th Update Sunday AM: Typically superhero movies organically see a double-digit percent decline in their Friday-to-Saturday grosses. Not Logan. The 20th Century Fox/Marvel Wolverine threequel collected an estimated $31.2M in its second day of release, down a low 6% from Friday’s $33.1M. This translates into an $85.2M weekend opening, which if that figure holds into the morning, will make the Hugh Jackman movie the 5th best opening for an R-Rated movie ahead of Fifty Shades of Grey ($85.1M) and Passion of the Christ ($83.8M).

 

[psylockolussus]

Wow. Who knew it would open that big. It would have been bigger if this was an actual X-Men film and not another Wolverine movie. But good for Fox.