Logan Logan Box Office Prediction Thread

[psylockolussus]

I don't think this movie would open big. I don't think there's such a demand for another Wolverine film and Wolverine always sells more when he's with the X-Men. Plus Apocalypse really hurt the filmseries especially Wolverine had a not so great cameo in that film. I don't see this out grossing Origins in North America.

 

[Snikt]

I don't think this movie would open big. I don't think there's such a demand for another Wolverine film and Wolverine always sells more when he's with the X-Men. Plus Apocalypse really hurt the filmseries especially Wolverine had a not so great cameo in that film. I don't see this out grossing Origins in North America.

Such a negative nancy

 

[Roose Bolton]

I don't think Apocalypse did much to hurt Wolverine as his own brand. If anything I think most fans enjoyed his cameo and the homage to the classic Weapon X story.

 

[psylockolussus]

Such a negative nancy

I am entitled to my opinion. Now who gave you the right to call people like that?

 

[LoganPool]

I don't think this movie would open big. I don't think there's such a demand for another Wolverine film and Wolverine always sells more when he's with the X-Men. Plus Apocalypse really hurt the filmseries especially Wolverine had a not so great cameo in that film. I don't see this out grossing Origins in North America.

I thought the general consensus was that Wolverines cameo was one the only good things about that movie? Or is that just me?

 

[Roose Bolton]

^That's been my experience too. Most people I've spoken to really seemed to have enjoyed that they went full Barry Windsor-Smith with Weapon X and utilised the iconography.

 

[Moridin]

Deadpool was a fun movie with rewatchablity while this looks like a DCEU level style of a depressing movie & even more dark & bleaker than BVS from the looks of things & there is not much of a kid audience with the R rating so we will see how this one goes

I don't think this looks bleak or depressing. It looks like it has a lot of heart and human drama, and is going to catch a lot of people in the feels. A far cry from BvS's bleak, nihilistic, faux-edgey tone.

The trailers for Logan have caught a lot of people by surprise & gotten them really looking forward to it, in a way no one talked about the previous two films.

So I see no reason Logan won't outgross TW, so building on those numbers ($132m/$282m///$414m)...

Adjusting for inflation that's already close to $450m WW. So, more than that, approaching $500m.

If it delivers on the promises of the trailers, it could certainly break out a bit. Maybe $550-600m.

$160-200m DOM
$340-400m OS

$500-600m WW

 

[marvelrobbins]

Such a negative nancy

you can see why i put him on ignore list.being so negative about everything.
Apocalypse was hardly a bomb.way he talks you would think Apocalypse was
disaster like Batman & Robin.

The r rating and fact it's so unlike most comic book films makes it bit hard to predict box office.

Jackman and Stewart may help get this film into higher than first class and apocalypse domestic box office but regardless WW Logan with 127 million will make it's money back.

why can't negative people let us enjoy last film with wolverine as a lead,at least for now,and r rated wolverine film to boot.

 

[Snikt]

I am entitled to my opinion. Now who gave you the right to call people like that?

As you take everything in this forum dead serious and at face value, I should inform you it's meant as a joke.

Perhaps if I had put a smiley face after that phrase, you would've read it as a joke. My most sincere and humble apologies literal one

 

[Smilodon]

http://www.thewrap.com/logan-looking-at-60-million-opening-two-weeks-out/

Predicting 60 million opening weekend.

 

[Ivan Drago]

Remember, Deadpool had a predicted 55 million opening........

 

[Smilodon]

I think if the word of mouth is very good, then we'll have a very different opening weekend ahead of us.

 

[OutOfBoose]

It's before the reviews, before the word of mouth. Things will change. For better or worse - remains to be seen.

 

[Infinity9999x]

Very interested to see how these reviews will impact the opening weekend of the film.

 

[2kt09]

Remember, Deadpool had a predicted 55 million opening........

I genuinely don't see this making the records Deadpool did.
That marketing is beyond reproach + Deadpool had a longer gap in time before the next major blockbuster hit.

 

[StormC]

Deadpool had a novelty to it in that it was a character never been given the (proper) cinematic treatment, a lot of people were curious about what his deal was. It was also Valentine's weekend which gave it a nice healthy Sunday.

 

[Sithborg]

At the very least, I think the reviews will give it legs. 200+ domestic seems like a real possibility now.

 

[marvelrobbins]

At the very least, I think the reviews will give it legs. 200+ domestic seems like a real possibility now.

frobes thinks it could hit hit 180 million domesticly and 550 million world wide.
That would be bigger than 350 WW for first class and 545 million for Apocalypse so jackman and possibly stewart would end on a high note.

 

[StormC]

500+ WW is definitely doable. Though it might depend on how much repeat business it gets, since it's so dark and grim.

 

[Typhoon22]

I don't think this movie would open big. I don't think there's such a demand for another Wolverine film and Wolverine always sells more when he's with the X-Men. Plus Apocalypse really hurt the filmseries especially Wolverine had a not so great cameo in that film. I don't see this out grossing Origins in North America.

Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't the Wolverine films done almost as much as the xmen films aside of DOFP (which had Hugh in the lead for most of it ?). XMen films usually do 400-500m ww and wolverine films do 400m ww. To me it's clear how big Wolverine-Hugh has been in that.

 

[kguillou]

Here's the one thing I'm very curious about. Obviously, by now its apparent this movie is great, and will have great critical word of mouth, BUT I'm wondering if its dark, somber tone won't affect rewatches. See, the thing with Deadpool was that it was fun and funny. You could watch it and laugh with your friends, it could be a date movie, lots of underage kids probably snuck into it etc. That all contributed to its huge BO. Will Logan, despite being a great film, have that entertainment factor that will have people wanting to relive it again and again like Deadpool? Thats going to be very interesting to see.

 

[2kt09]

Here's the one thing I'm very curious about. Obviously, by now its apparent this movie is great, and will have great critical word of mouth, BUT I'm wondering if its dark, somber tone won't affect rewatches. See, the thing with Deadpool was that it was fun and funny. You could watch it and laugh with your friends, it could be a date movie, lots of underage kids probably snuck into it etc. That all contributed to its huge BO. Will Logan, despite being a great film, have that entertainment factor that will have people wanting to relive it again and again like Deadpool? Thats going to be very interesting to see.

It is very unlikely to have the legs Deadpool had.
The issue with the last one was that there wasn't much going on between each major character interaction and action sequence. It did way better overseas.
While the rating is currently as good as Fury Road, the familiarity of the actors and the franchise has a stronger likelihood of garnering better receipts
plus reviews point to the story having more thrills and unexpected twists.

 

[psylockolussus]

If Power Rangers, Kong, Beauty and the Beast and Ghost in the Shell aren't heavy hitters at the box office - I could see it grossing over $200 million. But remember this is the third Wolverine film, Apocalypse couldn't benefit from Deadpool and Dofp so previous good X-Men films might not help this one either, the R rating and more serious tone might not appeal to everyone and to me, I don't see this being so different and new to the public. So I don't think it's gonna perform like Deadpool.

 

[Roose Bolton]

I can't speak for the others, but Kong isn't tracking all that great.

 

[psylockolussus]

I don't see it doing too well but that's still a tentpole film that could eat up a lot of Logan's audience in the second weekend.