MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[psylockolussus]

Out of the current 2025 mcu slate, this is simply the one that they can't afford to bomb at the boX office. Imagine getting the team, Dr. Doom, Silver Surfer, Galactus and the entire F4 catalog from FoX, only for the reboot to be another boX office flop.

Brave New World isn't going to drive more interest to Fantastic 4. If this is coming out, after Black Panther 3, Spider-Man 4 and Avengers 5, the chances of it opening well at the boX office would be a lot stronger.

And don't even get me started with Thunderbolts and Blade. Their current 2025 line up is a mess and will not help F4 and the chances of sequels being made. They need to make severe changes.

 

[Chris B]

My current and premature thinking is that Thor 1/CA: The First Avenger-level success is probably the benchmark for FF and and other MCU properties not named Deadpool 3, MCU Spider-Man 4, or have Avengers in the title going forward. To state the obvious, they can't rely on the Marvel brand anymore and need to take the time to rebuild good will with the general audience.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I am hoping this becomes a cult classic in the vein of 80s sci fi family movies. We shall see

 

[psylockolussus]

My current and premature thinking is that Thor 1/CA: The First Avenger-level success is probably the benchmark for FF and and other MCU properties not named Deadpool 3, MCU Spider-Man 4, or have Avengers in the title going forward. To state the obvious, they can't rely on the Marvel brand anymore and need to take the time to rebuild good will with the general audience.

And that will take years again. After Endgame, the F4 and the X-Men were the ones I was looking forward to the most. If Fantastic 4 was released in 2021 or 2022 without those eXplosion of Disney+ shows, maybe we would be waiting for a sequel now.

In hindsight, Black Widow the movie, Eternals and almost all Disney+ shows shouldn't happen in the first place. I hope Thunderbolts and Armor Wars get canned before they start filming. Marvel Studios teased so much in the last 3 years in the midcredits or post credits scene of their movies and shows, and I don't think they could now continue with those set ups with 1 movie finally flopping.

And you know, it doesn't take 5 to 10 flop movies for the public to completely lose interest in a franchise. Sometimes 1 or 2 are enough.

 

[psylockolussus]

Potential competitors of The Fantastic 4 neXt year at the boX office are Jurassic World Legacy and Superman Legacy. So far July 2025 isn't stacked yet. But including this, it already has 3 action blockbusters which could be too many for some.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Rumour is F4 will move to November so as to avoid Superman

 

[psylockolussus]

Rumour is F4 will move to November so as to avoid Superman

I think they should move it to December to take advantage of the holidays. November was a bad date for The Marvels. The Fantastic 4 isn't as popular as Black Panther for it to open in any month. I think outside of the fanbase, I don't think people really care about the Fantastic 4.

Marvel's 2025 line up isn't tried and tested. If the Fantastic 4 was coming after a Spider-Man movie or an Avengers movie, I can it see having an additional boost at the box-office. Right now, its coming after Thunderbolts... before it was moved this month, it was coming after a Sam Wilson movie. I don't think see any real strategy here that would help these films at the boX office. You would think after The Marvels only grossing $205 million worldwide, you would feel their urgency to turn things around for the better but no. Brave New World sounds like a mess based from reports. Thunderbolts/Fantastic 4 just swapped and there's Blade...

I don't think them just delaying these movies again and again, and not pushing upwards the more tested IPs (such as Avengers, Spider-Man, Black Panther and even Dr. Strange) will help these less popular IPs to secure sequels in the future. And if Fantastic 4 flops in November and Blade comes after it (in February 2026), who's really going to be eXcited for that movie as well?

 

[Stark Bauer]

^ are you saying F4 is a less popular IP?

In my mind F4 is up there with Spider-Man X Men Avengers

 

[Spider-Fan]

In terms of who? Comic fans, possibly. General audience? So far, no. I love the FF, and yes the cinematic efforts haven't been up to the standards of those other examples in regards to quality. But we can't deny to date that the FF have yet to show the same box office success of a Spider-Man, Avengers, or X-Men

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think if we call Spider-Man, Hulk, Avengers, X-Men, Superman and Batman “A properties”, FF is a B+ property.

The Tim Story films did make decent money compared to their quality and budget (not just in box office, but more important staying power with home video, merchandising etc.)

Historically, over the past 60 years, Ben and Johnny have been very popular characters - featured on T-shirts, posters etc. along with Iron Man, Captain America, Spider-Man Hulk etc.

Here’s a simple statement that I think most of us can agree with: Fantastic Four is the biggest Marvel property that hasn’t had a decent movie yet.

Their value probably has been degraded some by the bad films (though even bad films maintain familiarity for non-comic fans), and feuding between Fox and Marvel, but I think there’s almost no question there’s more interest and value (across the spectrum of casual and hard-core fans) for the FF than the D-list properties Marvel has been working with since Endgame.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I would agree the FF has more going for it than say, the Eternals and such. But as of yet, they're just not in that A tier, like you said. Yeah, the Story movies did okay, but it was basically just good enough to warrant 1 sequel. Even the 1st film that was a moderate hit wasn't on the level of hit as X-Men and such even back then. I am hoping that this next one is amazing and does very well. But that statement that they're on the level of Spider-Man or the Avengers and such is just not one I can agree with as of today. Maybe it will get there after this next movie, but I am talking about today specifically

 

[Stark Bauer]

Ok I think we can all agree F4 is an A tier property in Marvel’s history, just not so much when it comes to the box office. I think it has A tier box office potential as movies like the Incredibles have shown

 

[GreenKToo]

You gotta have good actors ( check )
A good director, and a good story, with a really good villain.
But first and foremost, it has to be a good film first.
This isn't 10 to 15 years ago where people would flock to any ole superhero film. Quality matters now.
We all have be burned by both marvel and DC.

 

[psylockolussus]

Hmm. It would be great to see the Fantastic 4 do really bigger numbers.

Back in the 2010s or after Endgame was released and if this film was released (and if Disney had the rights in the first place/Fant4stic didn't happen). I think Fantastic 4 would have been in the same league as Guardians or at least Dr. Strange/Thor solo movies at the boX office by now.

Unfortunately, after Endgame, we got these 1 offs (so far) like Black Widow solo movie, Shang-Chi, Eternals (sequels for those aren't coming anytime soon) and the first flop Mcu movie. NeXt year, first movie being headlined by Sam Wilson and that Thunderbolts team up movie will be released first. With these onslaught of different Marvel movies/Marvel ips coming out (including those awful Sony movies) in the last 4 years, I'm not really sure if the general public in 2025, would be that interested in another Fantastic 4 movie that is essentially the second reboot in a span of 20 years...

This movie needs to be great and needs to be marketed really well to succeed imo. Unlike Sam Wilson/Thunderbolts, given the history of the F4 in the comics, there are a lot more at stake in here, so I hope Disney/Marvel Studios know what they are doing here.

 

[Iceman]

Ok I think we can all agree F4 is an A tier property in Marvel’s history, just not so much when it comes to the box office. I think it has A tier box office potential as movies like the Incredibles have shown

Yeah, the prior films didn’t come close to nailing the max audience appeal that F4 is capable of. We will have to see how far it can go (which we don’t know yet) but it certainly should be better than the Fox films. I guess the issue now is that they will no longer be a newly debuting franchise (a bunch of the GA probably won’t give it a chance third time out) and that CBMs are in a tougher space now.

 

[OrbOfConfusion]

It won't really be hard to top what the Fox X-Men films did, even as some have revisited their feelings on the Tim Story films- the first one, at least.

 

[psylockolussus]

The first one did well at the boX office. I don't know what difference there would have been, if the 2005 Fantastic 4 was as good as X-Men 2000/Spider-Man 2003. But imagine if it got 81% at Rotten Tomatoes, it could have been more popular to the general public, leading to a big buzz/bigger boX office numbers for the second film and a 3rd film would have been a no brainer similar to X3/SM3.

But after X-Men/SM, F4 was the third highest grossing Marvel movie franchise before the MCU launched in 2008. Its too bad, the first two F4 films from foX aren't really regard as well made movies, even though personally I've enjoyed them and I liked the cast.

 

[Carlo Comicus]

I think this movie will have an advantage at the box office by being the first one. Audiences will be curious about this iteration of the characters, the first true Marvel version. I'm optimist.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think the Marvel strategy of cutting back on output will help.

In the early days, a new Marvel film was an event, but they got to the point that every 2 months there would be a new Marvel film coming out.

They’re getting back to the idea that these films are events, and I think the FF release will be a pretty big deal with a lot of hype.

 

[psylockolussus]

Hmm in a span of six months (February to July2025), they would be releasing three movies, thats not really a cutback. Plus none of those are traditional sequels to previous films which makes it as a bigger risk. I think that is simply too many for the general public to consume in the cinemas.

Having a Captain America legacy movie, Thunderbolts*, the 2nd Fantastic 4 reboot and Blade all out in the same year, is wild. Time will tell, if they will perform well at the box office.

 

[OrbOfConfusion]

Hmm in a span of six months (February to July2025), they would be releasing three movies, thats not really a cutback. Plus none of those are traditional sequels to previous films which makes it as a bigger risk. I think that is simply too many for the general public to consume in the cinemas.

Having a Captain America legacy movie, Thunderbolts*, the 2nd Fantastic 4 reboot and Blade all out in the same year, is wild. Time will tell, if they will perform well at the box office.

I could be wrong, but I question whether Blade actually does come out next year, with all the shifting it's done.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Hmm in a span of six months (February to July2025), they would be releasing three movies, thats not really a cutback. Plus none of those are traditional sequels to previous films which makes it as a bigger risk. I think that is simply too many for the general public to consume in the cinemas.

Having a Captain America legacy movie, Thunderbolts*, the 2nd Fantastic 4 reboot and Blade all out in the same year, is wild. Time will tell, if they will perform well at the box office.

Yeah, you’ve got a point.

I wasn’t even paying attention to those other films because I have zero interest in them.

To me, there are two Marvel films in 2024 and 2025, Deadpool and FF.

I might get vaguely interested in the Falcon movie if they play up the Hulk angle between now and release.

 

[Carlo Comicus]

I'm sure Deadpool & Wolverine will help create new hype for these movies.

 

[Chris B]

I could be wrong, but I question whether Blade actually does come out next year, with all the shifting it's done.

I remained convinced that FF takes Blade's spot in November '25 with Blade moving to 2026. I really don't see how FF in particular makes the July date if it doesn't start filming until August.

 

[psylockolussus]

I could be wrong, but I question whether Blade actually does come out next year, with all the shifting it's done.

I doubt it would even be released by early 2026. But still the fact they have those 4 films line up for 2025 is Wild. I don't know how anyone from Disney thought that was a good idea.

In a post-The Marvels world, I wouldn't be surprised if the 2nd/3rd MCU flop happens next year. And I would hate it if the Fantastic 4 flop again, as that would instantly kill Fantastic 4 sequels/trilogy, and nothing would have changed from the Fox era, in terms of Fantastic 4's box office potential.