MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[psylockolussus]

So for now, I’m thinking Fantastic Four looks like it can play at the level of Guardians of the Galaxy, in the $800 millions. Which is great, even if not the billion dollar business I’ve no doubt the studio and most fans expect and hope for. But I believe studios need to meet audiences where they are, and in today’s climate I think an $800+ performance for Fantastic Four will be plenty to prove its staying power and set up the two Avengers sequels. That earns the team a healthy second-place finish for summer.

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www.forbes.com

Forbes claiming $800 million worldwide is wild! That would be almost double of Brave New World and Thunderbolts*. I think Jurassic World and Superman would have to underperform first. Not a lot of people would watch all these 3 movies in July, lets be real.

I think the Fantastic Four hitting 500 million and outgrossing Thunderbolts* and Brave New World would be the Silver Surfer lining. But its also the third Marvel movie of the year.

 

[sdgrandia86]

F4 will definitely outperform the other marvel movies released this year despite quality due to it being F4, having Pedro Pascal in the movie and it's connection to RDJ/Doom & Doomsday

 

[Spider-Fan]

No one saw Fan4stic nor remembers it outside of nerds, and the other movies were nearly 20 years ago. This movie won't have that baggage and I think it's success level will surprise some. I expect this to get somewhere around 700 WW

 

[Frodo]

No one saw Fan4stic nor remembers it outside of nerds, and the other movies were nearly 20 years ago. This movie won't have that baggage and I think it's success level will surprise some. I expect this to get somewhere around 700 WW

It's nuts to realize that Fan4stic is 10 years old , and the other films are nearly 20 years old. .

And I was an adult when both iterations came out .

Curse Father time .

 

[Spider-Fan]

It's nuts to realize that Fan4stic is 10 years old , and the other films are nearly 20 years old. .

And I was an adult when both iterations came out .

Curse Father time .

I only laugh cause it hurts to cry, lol!!!!

 

[Chris B]

$700 mill still sounds right to me. I'll be surprised if its not an exponentially better movie than BNW and FF is a more recognizable property than Thunderbolts. And as much as I loved that film, Fantastic Four will likely be more of a crowd pleaser.

 

[psylockolussus]

I watched Mission Impossible/Final Destination today, both showed trailers for Jurassic World, Fantastic 4 and Superman in that same order. I feel like I'm about to eat a lot in July, especially next month, I don't plan to watch any movies in the cinemas.

 

[lenz]

Prior to the second trailer I had 700 m plus. Now I'll go with 550-650m.

 

[psylockolussus]

Does anything think the budget for is bigger than 180 million? Thats the "budget" for Thunderbolts* and Brave New World, according to Disney if I'm not mistaken.

I would like to eat my words by August, that it would gross over $500 million worldwide, especially 600 million but I really doubt it right now.

 

[lenz]

Does anything think the budget for is bigger than 180 million? Thats the "budget" for Thunderbolts* and Brave New World, according to Disney if I'm not mistaken.

I would like to eat my words by August, that it would gross over $500 million worldwide, especially 600 million but I really doubt it right now.

The problem is the second trailer doesn't seem to have created any lasting traction beyond the first couple of weeks (and the reception was more mixed than anything). It's basically fizzled out, at least in the parts of the web I occupy. So it's become crystal clear to me these last few months that the MCU will never fully recover from the past 5 years. It's played out and hit or miss from here on out.

I hope I'm wrong because I think short of a clean reboot of the universe and creating a whole new Avengers (with the icons), the Fantastic Four is the only franchise that could be legitimately built around as an anchor that doesn't further alienate audiences. I don't include Spider-Man because with the right incentives Sony could decide to go about it alone again.

 

[psylockolussus]

The problem is the second trailer doesn't seem to have created any lasting traction beyond the first couple of weeks (and the reception was more mixed than anything). It's basically fizzled out, at least in the parts of the web I occupy. So it's become crystal clear to me these last few months. It's played out and hit or miss at best from here on out.

I hope I'm wrong because I think short of a clean reboot of the universe and creating a whole new Avengers (with the icons), the Fantastic Four is the only franchise that could be legitimately built around as an anchor that doesn't further alienate audiences. I don't include Spider-Man because with the right incentives Sony could decide to go about it alone again.

I feel like if Fantastic Four were launched in May 2022, when people were finally going back to theaters and we didn't hear the term "Marvel fatigue" yet affecting box office numbers, that would have been a good time to relaunch the group in the movies.

Aside from that date, releasing this right after Deadpool & Wolverine or Spider-Man or Avengers (with F4 having a role) would have benefitted this new F4 movie. Too bad, Thunderbolts/Brave New World aren't huge box office successes to help Fantastic 4 by a large margin. So this would really need to stand on its own, in order to secure a sequel.

I think there's a large portion of the mainstream that are just waiting for the next Avengers/Spider-Man and skipping these 2025 Mcu movies.

 

[lenz]

I feel like if Fantastic Four were launched in May 2022, when people were finally going back to theaters and we didn't hear the term "Marvel fatigue" yet affecting box office numbers, that would have been a good time to relaunch the group in the movies.

Aside from that date, releasing this right after Deadpool & Wolverine or Spider-Man or Avengers (with F4 having a role) would have benefitted this new F4 movie. Too bad, Thunderbolts/Brave New World aren't huge box office successes to help Fantastic 4 by a large margin. So this would really need to stand on its own, in order to secure a sequel.

I think there's a large portion of the mainstream that are just waiting for the next Avengers/Spider-Man and skipping these 2025 Mcu movies.

I think you are correct. Long-term the Avengers will continue to be the backbone of Marvel on Film. I'm talking well beyond this current universe. Certainly if they want any sustainable universe.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think you are correct. Long-term the Avengers will continue to be the backbone of Marvel on Film, I'm talking well beyond this current universe. Certainly if they want any sustainable universe.

The X-Men are easy to market and sell. Well if they know what they are doing.

So basically - the Avengers and the X-Men. Spider-Man is tied with Sony, which isn't an ideal situation for Disney. Other heroes like Doctor Strange, Black Panther, Thor and Shang-Chi, well they cannot simply have a different lead after a couple of films and expect people to show up every single time.

 

[Chris B]

The problem is the second trailer doesn't seem to have created any lasting traction beyond the first couple of weeks (and the reception was more mixed than anything). It's basically fizzled out, at least in the parts of the web I occupy. So it's become crystal clear to me these last few months that the MCU will never fully recover from the past 5 years. It's played out and hit or miss from here on out.

I hope I'm wrong because I think short of a clean reboot of the universe and creating a whole new Avengers (with the icons), the Fantastic Four is the only franchise that could be legitimately built around as an anchor that doesn't further alienate audiences. I don't include Spider-Man because with the right incentives Sony could decide to go about it alone again.

You don't think the X-Men will give them a shot in the arm?

 

[HammerDown]

Around 500-600M seems like a pretty solid guess for this. It’s a new/fresh twist, on a recognizable brand inside of a still struggling/recovering franchise. It was already teased at the end of Thunderbolts and it’s likely going to get a bump because of it having a direct connection with the Doom character, it leading directly into Doomsday, post credit stuff…

Also at the Thunderbolt’s showing I was at they where advertising this pretty aggressively with like 2 trailers, some advertisements…

It also looks pretty good and it will likely be well received as well which should help it’s BO run. Personally some of the casting/character/visual choices I’m a bit on a fence about but hey I’ll give it a shot. Galactus looks pretty cool and so does the female surfer which I also liked from the trailer.

 

[lenz]

You don't think the X-Men will give them a shot in the arm?

Ten years ago for sure, possibly even five.

Nowadays everything is hyper-political with social media and the 24-hour news cycle. It's basically unavoidable in 2025 so people are more divided than ever and tribalism drives the narratives and agendas. Is there any room for subtlety or nuance? The idea that people don't want politics seeping into their "entertainment" may seem quaint for some people, but that sentiment/desire is undeniable.

I could easily see the X-Men becoming Star Wars on steroids the next 5-10 years if they get too heavy handed/on the nose with messaging. Maybe it's unavoidable considering where we are in culture, but it's certainly not a franchise you can base everything else around if you want to get a new cinematic universe off the ground and build for long term "success"

If the films became standalone franchises it's obviously more tenable.

 

[Chris B]

Ten years ago for sure, possibly even five.

Nowadays everything is hyper-political with social media and the 24-hour news cycle. It's basically unavoidable in 2025 so people are more divided than ever and tribalism drives the narratives and agendas. Is there any room for subtlety or nuance? The idea that people don't want politics seeping into their "entertainment" may seem quaint to some people, but that sentiment/desire is undeniable.

I could easily see the X-Men becoming Star Wars on steroids the next 5-10 years if they get too heavy handed/on the nose with messaging. Maybe it's unavoidable considering where we are in culture, but it's certainly not a franchise you can base everything else around if you want to get a new cinematic universe off the ground and build for long term "success"

If the films became standalone franchises it's obviously more tenable.

I think you may be underselling the X-Men here a bit. They're arguably Marvel's second biggest property behind Spider-Man, and unlike him, they're not being shared with another studio. Not to mention they come with a rich mythology that can easily give the MCU another 20 years of story possibilities.

The usual suspects will weep and gnash their teeth that Marvel has made them woke the moment there is the slightest exploration of themes like prejudice and discrimination, but do those morons matter at the end of the day? I'm skeptical.

 

[lenz]

I think you may be underselling the X-Men here a bit. They're arguably Marvel's second biggest property behind Spider-Man, and unlike him, they're not being shared with another studio. Not to mention they come with a rich mythology that can easily give the MCU another 20 years of story possibilities.

The usual suspects will weep and gnash their teeth that Marvel has made them woke the moment there is the slightest exploration of themes like prejudice and discrimination, but do those morons matter at the end of the day? I'm skeptical.

Oh believe me, I know the Mutants importance in Marvel history, across all platforms. In the Who are Marvel's Big Three thread, I tried to come up with a straight forward/objective ranking system to determine the franchise (IP) rankings overall. The the X-Men are a clear number 2 overall.

(DC has their Big Three, who are Marvel's Big Three?)

 

[AndrewGilkison]

I think you may be underselling the X-Men here a bit. They're arguably Marvel's second biggest property behind Spider-Man, and unlike him, they're not being shared with another studio. Not to mention they come with a rich mythology that can easily give the MCU another 20 years of story possibilities.

The usual suspects will weep and gnash their teeth that Marvel has made them woke the moment there is the slightest exploration of themes like prejudice and discrimination, but do those morons matter at the end of the day? I'm skeptical.

They couldn't stop X-Men 97.

 

[psylockolussus]

The X-Men are definitely going to a hit, especially if the visuals are as comic booky as Avengers movies.

The problem with the Foxverse movies at the box office, was the combination of non comic booky costumes and the grounded tone didn't really appeal to a wider audience. The leather costumes received so much flack at the time. The fight scenes and action sequences aren't as massive in scale compare to the action sequences in Avengers. The highest grossing X-Men film in North America didn't even hit $250 million. Aside from the flashy costumes that should appeal the younger audiences more, I expect the action to be much bigger than ever. And when the mainstream sees it in the marketing, it would be easy for Marvel Studios to outgross all X-Men movies from the past.