MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[lenz]

I don't see Feige being "fired" considering all he's done for the company the last 16 years, but I'm not sure he'd want to continue after he resets the table for a new universe in '29/30. He'd basically be competing against his own legacy for another 10+ years. I think it's time for him to leave and a new CEO may feel the same, but I don't get the sense he'll be kicked to the curb unceremoniously.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's offered a place in the company other than Marvel CCO, or gets offered bags of money for a production deal elsewhere. He lost the plot with the MCU, but he will be valued in the industry for his talents wherever he lands.

 

[lenz]

I disagree. I think we need to stop comparing Fantastic Four's box office numbers to that of Endgame or the other billion-dollar films that were payoffs to years of story-telling (or performed as connective tissue for huge ensemble films like Captain Marvel). First Steps is not the same thing at all.

It's not a spin-off of anything.

It's not connected to anything.

It's not a pay-off of anything.

This is something of an origin story--the FF's first appearance in the MCU. And it's boldly standing on its own merits without cameo appearances from other Marvel heroes (even Superman depended on an ensemble cast with the Justice League).

If anything, we should be comparing it to the other "standalone" first outings of Marvel's heroes. Many of them never reached $500M and this one will. It's going to be a financially successful film, and critically it is absolutely a hit.

I wasn't expecting Avengers-type money (I put the film in the $550-750m range), though I would have expected something approximating Guardians-type money if I knew the reception/scores. Nobody really saw the overseas collapse to this degree, for Superman and FF, but that reality doesn't negate the disappointing performance here. I agree it's a new reality for the genre, but studios will adjust expectations and productions going forward. Both of these films were made with expectations being more in-line with past performance.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I am not saying FF2 will make a billion dollars, but exposure in the Avengers movies has led to a more successful sequel in most every case from movie 1 to 2. Only exceptions being The Marvels and Wakanda Forever. But WF we can attribute in large part to Boseman dying. So FF2 should get some form of bump. How much? I don't know. But probability says it will perform better.

But I do agree that people need to stop comparing it to the billion dollar movies. Most of those billion grossers were sequels. Only ones that were not were Black Panther, who got introduced in Cap 3 and that certainly helped, and Captain Marvel. Otherwise, the new IPs largely live in the 400-700 mil range. The upper end of that 700 mostly happening in Phase 3, Aka Marvel's Peak. Marvel isn't in their peak anymore. The 500ish mill result is fine considering where Marvel is now. Everyone wants to still act like we are in Phase 3, and we are not. They have to rebuild the house of cards. That won't happen overnight.

 

[lenz]

The problem is I think people would be more excited for a whole new universe from the ground up than seeing whatever bump the FF may get from a (closing) event film. That is the reason I want a new CEO from outside of Disney and for Feige to leave. In order to get this there likely needs to be a sweeping culture change. More of the same is not good enough to sustain long term interest or results.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The problem is I think people would be more excited for a whole new universe from the ground up than seeing whatever bump the FF may get from a (closing) event film. That is the reason I want a new CEO from outside of Disney and for Feige to leave. In order to get this there likely needs to be a sweeping culture change. More of the same is not good enough to sustain long term interest or results.

You won't get sweeping change whether Feige leaves or not though. Marvel is beholden to the interests of the Disney shareholders and big name people who give them money. You'll never get this sweeping culture change with these people involved.

 

[Frodo]

As other posters have said, Spiderman : Brand New Day , and the two Avengers seem to be the real test for Feige, not Fantastic Four : First Steps.

Even if Spider-Man : Brand New Day stumbles or under performs for whatever reason , Sony 's not giving up on that property, or letting go of the rights, whether Feige's involved or not, and whether the film is as big a hit as NWH ,or not .

Spiderman ain't going nowhere , regardless if there are online pundits, and other segments of fandom ,rooting for that film's failure .

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

It is barely going to make $500. And while better than other offerings this year, it is not the kind of success that he can feel his job is safe. And while I don't believe they were delusional to think that it would be a billion, I think their realistic expectations were $600. And they can only run the success PR because it is going to be 3rd top grossing of their past 7 offerings of the past two years. And considering the highs, I would hate to me in Feige's shoes.



Yeah, SS sucked. But the box office reception? Awefully similar to FF. It may be a good movie, but it just did not connect to the audience. And good movies fail to connect to audiences all the time, that is okay.

I think assuming that there is going to be an "Avengers bump" is ignoring the reality we are in. This isn't Phase 1-3 anymore. The sequels post Endgame? No Avengers bump. GOTG and Thor stayed steady. Capt Marvel, Black Panther, and Ant-man all significantly dropped. The only sequel that did better was Strange, which is an outlier, and I doubt FF2 is going to be directly after Secret Wars to benefit from the advertising blitz.

But again, we can’t compare First Steps to those post Endgame films—they each had unique circumstances, including the after effects of the Pandemic. Black Panther 2 literally lost its star in death, but still went on to gross nearly $900M globally.

This is an entirely new era—and Secret Wars will reset everything into one Prime 616 universe. If they drop Holland’s Spider-Man in FF2 as a cameo alongside the Human Torch, one can easily see how the film could gross more. The biggest MCU films are ensemble casts with huge cameos. First Steps is just that—the first steps towards building a foundation. Now they’re eligible for the same Civil War cameo style film-making that made those blockbusters possible.

I believe they will be fine.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I wouldn't put Spidey in FF2. I would put Human Torch in Spider-Man 5

 

[lenz]

You won't get sweeping change whether Feige leaves or not though. Marvel is beholden to the interests of the Disney shareholders and big name people who give them money. You'll never get this sweeping culture change with these people involved.

Sweeping culture change in terms of the universe set-up and approach to these characters.

A wholly new universe vs. a universe that inherits baggage. More R-rated content. Marvel is WAAAY more diverse in material and tone than Feige's MCU would lead a casual to believe. A more filmmaker-friendly CCO and less micromanagement, therefore more filmmaker creative freedom and actual collaboration. Varying budgets, way more on-location shooting, less CGI, etc. Not everything has to be Marvel-branded, specifically TV. You have some of the best in the business at Disney, like FX productions and John Landgraf. Give him another shot at a series. The last time you did he delivered Legion.

I'd apply this to the various studios across the board. This is basically what I mean here. So early Iger and much of Eisner's tenure since 1984.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Sweeping culture change in terms of the universe set-up and approach to these characters.

A wholly new universe vs. a universe that inherits baggage. More R-rated content. Marvel is WAAAY more diverse in material and tone than Feige's MCU would lead a casual to believe. A more filmmaker-friendly CCO and less micromanagement, therefore more filmmaker creative freedom and actual collaboration. Varying budgets, way more on-location shooting, less CGI, etc. Not everything has to be Marvel-branded, specifically TV. You have some of the best in the business at Disney, like FX productions and John Landgraf. Give him another shot at a series. The last time you did he delivered Legion.

I'd apply this to the various studios across the board. This is basically what I mean here. So early Iger and much of Eisner's tenure since 1984.

We are not in that media landscape anymore though. Studios just don't invest in variety of output anymore. Not at the theatrical level at least. They all want safe BO returns, so while you COULD do a lot of r rated stuff and various things with the IP, I think the sad reality is regardless who is in charge, they're going to be playing it safe. Maybe that paradigm shifts at some point down the road, but I don't think we are even close to that now

 

[lenz]

We are not in that media landscape anymore though. Studios just don't invest in variety of output anymore. Not at the theatrical level at least. They all want safe BO returns, so while you COULD do a lot of r rated stuff and various things with the IP, I think the sad reality is regardless who is in charge, they're going to be playing it safe. Maybe that paradigm shifts at some point down the road, but I don't think we are even close to that now

Well now we get down to why competition matters. Today's audience is starting to look elsewhere and move on from what the MCU has offered them the past decade. They want something different, something that offers more diversity and authenticity. If they keep playing it safe and formulaic going forward, I promise you that investors won't get the margins they are expecting and be extremely disappointed, just like they've been the last five years, when Disney/Marvel were playing it too safe and formulaic.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Well now we get down to why competition matters. Today's audience is starting to look elsewhere and move on from what the MCU has offered them the past decade. They want something different, something that offers more diversity and authenticity. If they keep playing it safe and formulaic going forward, I promise you that investors won't get the margins they are expecting and be extremely disappointed, just like they've been the last five years, when they were playing it too safe and formulaic.

I dont know what the next major media sensation will be that becomes top dog. It hasn't emerged as of yet. Frankly, the MCU being on top as long as they were is unheard of. Even if they do what you say, I am not sure the MCU would be top dog again. That's not to say the MCU cannot still be successful. TMNT isn't on top like it was, but it still is doing very well. The MCU can still do well, but that dominance is dead IMO

 

[lenz]

I dont know what the next major media sensation will be that becomes top dog. It hasn't emerged as of yet. Frankly, the MCU being on top as long as they were is unheard of. Even if they do what you say, I am not sure the MCU would be top dog again. That's not to say the MCU cannot still be successful. TMNT isn't on top like it was, but it still is doing very well. The MCU can still do well, but that dominance is dead IMO

I agree the certainty of dominance is dead. If they want to maximize/stretch out whatever success they have going forward, it won't happen if they do things the same way and tread over the same ground. That territory is pretty barren at this point. They need to chart new territories and bring in a new audience.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Summer is done and dusted at the box office.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Monday August 18, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Monday August 18, 2025

the-numbers.com

First day under 1m. All about the weekends now.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Sweeping culture change in terms of the universe set-up and approach to these characters.

A wholly new universe vs. a universe that inherits baggage. More R-rated content. Marvel is WAAAY more diverse in material and tone than Feige's MCU would lead a casual to believe. A more filmmaker-friendly CCO and less micromanagement, therefore more filmmaker creative freedom and actual collaboration. Varying budgets, way more on-location shooting, less CGI, etc. Not everything has to be Marvel-branded, specifically TV. You have some of the best in the business at Disney, like FX productions and John Landgraf. Give him another shot at a series. The last time you did he delivered Legion.

I'd apply this to the various studios across the board. This is basically what I mean here. So early Iger and much of Eisner's tenure since 1984.

I get what you’re saying and it’s true. Under Feige the MCU has become very bland and predictable. Before Marvel Studios, we had very unique visions such as the Blade films in 1998, X Men First Class, even the first Iron Man were considered more like small indie movies that promoted auteur ship - letting the director execute his unique vision rather than try to fit a cookie cutter formulaic MCU mold. That’s what makes the DC film universe feel way more exciting right now because you have on one hand The Batman by Matt Reeves and then you have James Gunn with Superman with full creative control for the most part

 

[Stark Bauer]

I dont know what the next major media sensation will be that becomes top dog. It hasn't emerged as of yet. Frankly, the MCU being on top as long as they were is unheard of. Even if they do what you say, I am not sure the MCU would be top dog again. That's not to say the MCU cannot still be successful. TMNT isn't on top like it was, but it still is doing very well. The MCU can still do well, but that dominance is dead IMO

The next top dog imho is all the streaming series such as Fallout, Alien Earth, Andor, etc. if they were to release them in theatres or monetise them in a clever way that could be the way forward and is looking like that. Episodic content has raised the bar for storytelling, realistic dialogue, and complex characters that we fall in love with having invested hundreds of hours seeing them mature and struggle.

Its not necessarily the answer you were asking for since it isn’t a specific IP.

However since Disney basically owns everything they might as well work towards a potential MARVEL vs DC movie or series of movies. While they are at it do more universe blending with Marvel, Star Wars and Aliens and Predator etc..that could be another major media sensation as you put it

 

[psylockolussus]

I didn't find the Blade film very good and critics didn't seem to like it as well (Rotten in RT). For me, the only thing unique about it is Blade wasn't an A-list Marvel ip, that somehow got a movie franchise in a time there were barely any Marvel movies.

But it is far from the best Marvel movies.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The next top dog imho is all the streaming series such as Fallout, Alien Earth, Andor, etc. if they were to release them in theatres or monetise them in a clever way that could be the way forward and is looking like that. Episodic content has raised the bar for storytelling, realistic dialogue, and complex characters that we fall in love with having invested hundreds of hours seeing them mature and struggle.

Its not necessarily the answer you were asking for since it isn’t a specific IP.

However since Disney basically owns everything they might as well work towards a potential MARVEL vs DC movie or series of movies. While they are at it do more universe blending with Marvel, Star Wars and Aliens and Predator etc..that could be another major media sensation as you put it

I gotta say, I feel like the Netflix TV model peaked like 10 years ago. Now, I have grown to miss old TV. There are some great shows, but 4 or 6 episode mini movies feel unsatisfactory and in general everything feels either really padded or too short. Sometimes simultaneously. So for me, I don't feel like TV is all that much better than movies. Case in point, the vast majority of Star Wars and Marvel D+ shows are on the lower end of the content scale. Yeah, Wandavision, Loki, or Andor exist. But they're way outnumbered by lesser ones, like Book of Boba Fett or Secret Invasion. But, that's just how I see them. Very disenchanted with these

 

[Frodo]

Regardless of what the future may hold in terms of the MCU popularity, I'm gonna still follow Marvel films and see what's next.

I'm old enough to remember a time when alot Marvel movies were low rent tv movies or straight to video films .

Heck , I remember a time when these films in general weren't taken all that seriously and we're considered campy and " for children" .

But , I was still scanning Blockbuster Video and Tower Records looking for Marvel TV movies and cartoons which weren't rerun or only aired once.

Today's fandom is pretty fortunate to have an abundance , or even an over abundance of comic book film/ tv properties , let alone to even be able to dream of any of them making a 300 million , let alone a Billion.

It's easy to take for granted that another Spiderman or X Men film will happen.

Today's fandom would be triggered by the world of the 1980s and 1990s with regards to CBM and TV content, let alone the attitudes towards these properties, that fans today expect to make at least 200 Million.

So, now that we've finally got it , I don't take it for granted , and in all honesty, Marvel Studios ,hasn't produced anything as bad or as cringe worthy as alot of the superhero content in the 80s and 90s.

Changes will be made of course , and the studio will have to find new approaches to adapting these characters, but having been around in the year pre- The MCU and DCU , I don't feel the doom and gloom alot of fans feel about the current state of Superhero cinema .

Ultimately, these studios now know, unlike in the 80s and 90s, that these films can be highly profitable, and ultimately, they aren't gonna leave all that money on the table , regardless of the discourse in online fandom.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

1.35 early estimate for Tuesday. Hitting 250m today!

 

[psylockolussus]

Regardless of what the future may hold in terms of the MCU popularity, I'm gonna still follow Marvel films and see what's next.

I'm old enough to remember a time when alot Marvel movies were low rent tv movies or straight to video films .

Heck , I remember a time when these films in general weren't taken all that seriously and we're considered campy and " for children" .

But , I was still scanning Blockbuster Video and Tower Records looking for Marvel TV movies and cartoons which weren't rerun or only aired once.

Today's fandom is pretty fortunate to have an abundance , or even an over abundance of comic book film/ tv properties , let alone to even be able to dream of any of them making a 300 million , let alone a Billion.

It's easy to take for granted that another Spiderman or X Men film will happen.

Today's fandom would be triggered by the world of the 1980s and 1990s with regards to CBM and TV content, let alone the attitudes towards these properties, that fans today expect to make at least 200 Million.

So, now that we've finally got it , I don't take it for granted , and in all honesty, Marvel Studios ,hasn't produced anything as bad or as cringe worthy as alot of the superhero content in the 80s and 90s.

Changes will be made of course , and the studio will have to find new approaches to adapting these characters, but having been around in the year pre- The MCU and DCU , I don't feel the doom and gloom alot of fans feel about the current state of Superhero cinema .

Ultimately, these studios now know, unlike in the 80s and 90s, that these films can be highly profitable, and ultimately, they aren't gonna leave all that money on the table , regardless of the discourse in online fandom.

-Doctor Strange 3
-Black Panther 3
-Fantastic 4: Second Steps
-Deadpool 4Ever
-X-Men Begins
-Shang-Chi and the Return of the Ten Rings
-Spider-Man: Brand New Decade

These should be ready for 2027 to 2030. I'd include Avengers 7, there as well, if they are ready to commit in making a new Avengers movie every 3 years again. I think they should be able to sustain the brand without dwelving into another Eternals, Captain America legacy movie and Thunderbolts. Two movies maximum per year, should be mandatory.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I didn't find the Blade film very good and critics didn't seem to like it as well (Rotten in RT). For me, the only thing unique about it is Blade wasn't an A-list Marvel ip, that somehow got a movie franchise in a time there were barely any Marvel movies.

But it is far from the best Marvel movies.

I would argue Blade is something of a cult classic. Iconic music, fashion, visual style, and Wesley Snipes career defining role

 

[Stark Bauer]

I gotta say, I feel like the Netflix TV model peaked like 10 years ago. Now, I have grown to miss old TV. There are some great shows, but 4 or 6 episode mini movies feel unsatisfactory and in general everything feels either really padded or too short. Sometimes simultaneously. So for me, I don't feel like TV is all that much better than movies. Case in point, the vast majority of Star Wars and Marvel D+ shows are on the lower end of the content scale. Yeah, Wandavision, Loki, or Andor exist. But they're way outnumbered by lesser ones, like Book of Boba Fett or Secret Invasion. But, that's just how I see them. Very disenchanted with these

I wasn’t talking about D+ shows exclusively. I am saying the trend in Hollywood is that if you want to make he best stories and put yourself on the map, the way is streaming (mostly shows). Rather than big tent pole movies with enormous budgets that have a high risk for failure. Whereas streaming platforms have grown exponentially compared to theatres

 

[Stark Bauer]

Regardless of what the future may hold in terms of the MCU popularity, I'm gonna still follow Marvel films and see what's next.

I'm old enough to remember a time when alot Marvel movies were low rent tv movies or straight to video films .

Heck , I remember a time when these films in general weren't taken all that seriously and we're considered campy and " for children" .

But , I was still scanning Blockbuster Video and Tower Records looking for Marvel TV movies and cartoons which weren't rerun or only aired once.

Today's fandom is pretty fortunate to have an abundance , or even an over abundance of comic book film/ tv properties , let alone to even be able to dream of any of them making a 300 million , let alone a Billion.

It's easy to take for granted that another Spiderman or X Men film will happen.

Today's fandom would be triggered by the world of the 1980s and 1990s with regards to CBM and TV content, let alone the attitudes towards these properties, that fans today expect to make at least 200 Million.

So, now that we've finally got it , I don't take it for granted , and in all honesty, Marvel Studios ,hasn't produced anything as bad or as cringe worthy as alot of the superhero content in the 80s and 90s.

Changes will be made of course , and the studio will have to find new approaches to adapting these characters, but having been around in the year pre- The MCU and DCU , I don't feel the doom and gloom alot of fans feel about the current state of Superhero cinema .

Ultimately, these studios now know, unlike in the 80s and 90s, that these films can be highly profitable, and ultimately, they aren't gonna leave all that money on the table , regardless of the discourse in online fandom.

Well said. Some much needed perspective …

I remember the 80-90s well. Comic book movies were the butt of jokes, the special effects were just not there to depict them the way they are in the comics. The closest we got was Superman 1978. That all changed with 1989 Batman and then of course 1997-98 Blade and X Men in 1999 soon to follow with Raimi’s Spider-Man in 2001-2002. The Dark Knight made CBM go up to Godfather levels and they were seen as legit forms of art to the point it was Oscar nominated. Then Iron Man happened and birthed the MCU and the rest is history.


Truly the kid in me saw the Galactus scene in First Steps and was weeping with joy. THEY FRAKKING NAILED THE LOOK AND FEEL OF A SATURDAY MORNING SUPER HERO CARTOON COME TO LIFE! NO SMALL FEAT! Make Mine Marvel! EXCELSIOR!

 

[Sithborg]

I wasn’t talking about D+ shows exclusively. I am saying the trend in Hollywood is that if you want to make he best stories and put yourself on the map, the way is streaming (mostly shows). Rather than big tent pole movies with enormous budgets that have a high risk for failure. Whereas streaming platforms have grown exponentially compared to theatres

The streaming bubble has burst. They are throwing out the money for "prestige" films like they used to. The loss of episodes is just as much a factor of them trying to save budget as much as it is with going for big names whose schedules cannot handle a traditional television show. Even one of 13 episodes.

God, I miss 13 episode seasons.