MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Sithborg]

Incorrect.
For example-
So black widow making money from disney plus and making a profit and making a more profits from streaming,merchandising and vod is just speculation?
Antman 3 making a profit after it flop at the box office is just speculation?
Pasts mcu movies like incredible hulk from 2008 that had large video sales,merchandise etc.. after it flop did not make profits after all this time after the hulk film in phase 1 and after marvel had movies making over a 1 billion dollars and other movies in phase 1,2 and 3 that had hit after hit after hit is just speculation?
Eternals and the marvels did not make thier money back after most disney movies had hits in 2022,2024 etc.. and other means mention above is just speculation?
So i guess boxoffice websites like the numbers and box office mojo etc.. that give you info on how much movies makes everyday and everyweek is just speculation too?
Nope not speculation at all.

The only solid info we have is box office, largely because that info gets verified by the theaters. Physical merch and stuff also has some solid info behind it. Streaming numbers and sales are a whole lot less solid.

The thing to remember the most about the profit equation is cost. You are trusting the company on how much a movie cost. And here's the thing, they can easily lie with the truth. And Hollywood accounting has a lot more tricks than normal. The budget can be manipulated to be however much it wants to be public, something they especially tend to do with the bigger budgets. Revenue is not profit. Trust me, there is a reason why box office bonuses go by revenue instead of profit.

A common saying among accountants is "There are three books. One you show the bank/investors. One you show the government. And one that no one else sees". Or one to show you are profitable to investors, one to show that you aren't that profitable, save on taxes, and then the full, true picture of the financial health of the company. And unless these reporters have snagged the accounting books, talk of profit/loss is just speculation based on trust of the company's word.

Don't trust those articles, wait and see what the company does afterwards.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Marvel Looks to Avengers, X-Men and Black Panther 3 for Future Success — Variety

With ‘The Fantastic Four’ a qualified box office success, is the superhero genre finding its footing again?

apple.news

*********
“I think as an industry we’ve become very obsessed with opening-weekend results, in particular with both [‘Superman’ and ‘Fantastic Four’]. Because word of mouth is so strong for both, I think the story is not fully obvious yet. Yes, ‘Fantastic Four’ is good enough in terms of it exceeded what Disney expected. So that’s a positive. And it’s tough to compare it to any other Marvel films because we simply live in a different time now for the superhero releases.”
*********

This is a really interesting analysis on what’s happened here—as well as Marvel’s plans for the X-Men in the near future. I encourage everyone to check it out.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

5.8m weekend estimate per ERC. Would be a very solid hold.

 

[blackdragon6]

Secret Invasion might be the single worst media that Marvel Studios has put out!?

I still like the dialogue, and I appreciated the darker tone. I think the actors was also good. It just wasn't enough to save that mini series.

 

[blueharvest]

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Hmmm. I’m not seeing $490M at Boxofficemojo. It’s still posted at $475M. Is Hollywood Handle simply estimating or have the weekend’s numbers just not been updated at Mojo?

 

[Spider-Fan]

BOM probably hasn't added the international grosses and such yet

 

[donuts]

Yeah, it has yet to be updated.

$257.3M DOM
$232.8M INT

$490.1M WW
per Luiz Fernandez on twitter

$500M is locked!

 

[Frodo]

​

Disney’s Boy Trouble: Studio Seeks Original IP to Win Back Gen-Z Men Amid Marvel, Lucasfilm Struggles​

Disney’s Boy Trouble: Studio Seeks Original IP to Win Back Gen-Z Men Amid Marvel, Lucasfilm Struggles

As Marvel and Lucasfilm stumble, Disney hopes originals will lure Gen Z audiences.

variety.com

That info about the men was posted here.

The Box Office (2024)

DS released in more countries--and broke records in them! DS has passed bad guy 2's box office in just a few countries!

community.cbr.com

I must admit , I haven't read the article itself but i've heard some of the discourse on it .

I think ultimately when it comes to Marvel and Star Wars, Disney's main focus, in terms of building and keeping and audience has to be children .

They're ultimately the ones who are gonna wants the merch , get their parents to buy the toys , games, films , etc. continue to watch the films over and over again in theaters or on streaming, and be the future audience .

I got into these properties as a child and a 12 year old on the outer end.

If you're an average 20 something guy ( i.e. not part of fandom ) , or even a mid to late teen, your views are already crystalized about the MCU at this point , and there's not that much room to grow in terms of being a consumer of these products.

That's not to say that mediocre or bad product helps to keep them engaged.

Engaged or not, if the product is mediocre consistently, people are gonna drop out of it and lose interest.

But I would think Disney's focus really needs to be the kids , children, and families.

I get the idea of wanting that teen audience and that's at been the focus of alot of these tentpole films for decades now .

But if the children start turning their nose up at Marvel products , that would really be my concern.

 

[donuts]

Actively "seeking children" is a recipe for disaster. Kids don't want to be talked down to.

Maybe not jumping into production without a genuinely good script and hiring strong directors who are left alone enough to do what they do best (and a good fit for the material) would be an idea?

 

[KBX]

Expect Disney next big purchase being a major anime or video game studio going by their history

 

[Frodo]

Actively "seeking children" is a recipe for disaster. Kids don't want to be talked down to.

Maybe not jumping into production without a genuinely good script and hiring strong directors who are left alone enough to do what they do best (and a good fit for the material) would be an idea?

Totally disagree with you on that .

Getting kids who are at least 4 or 5 into this stuff crucial for the future of the franchise , and you don't have to talk down to them to do that.

But , if you disagree , fair enough.

But I totally agree with you on everything else .

 

[Frodo]

Expect Disney next big purchase being a major anime or video game studio going by their history

I could see that , since that does skew older into the teens and 20 something audience .

 

[donuts]

P.S.: that's also a consequence of not diversifying the Marvel Studios movies enough. The Marvel universe is so vast, you could address lots of different targets.

Kevin Feige should not have slept on making some "edgier", R-rated (good!) big screen movies featuring characters like Daredevil and The Punisher. Especially after John Wick and Deadpool became box office hits.

But even withing the PG-13, branching out would've been helpful.

 

[Frodo]

P.S.: that's also a consequence of not diversifying the Marvel Studios movies enough. The Marvel universe is so vast, you could address lots of different targets.

Kevin Feige should not have slept on making some "edgier", R-rated (good!) big screen movies featuring characters like Daredevil and The Punisher. Especially after John Wick and Deadpool became box office hits.

I never said they couldn't or shouldn't .

As far as making " edgier stuff " I agree with you ,.

I would love to see an R Rated Daredevil or Punisher film made by Marvel Studios.

I don't disagree with you with that respect.

If anything, my hope is after Secret Wars , these individual films will be much more standalone and not dependent on what's happening on Disney plus shows, side characters film's etc.

I wanna see a dark and violent , R Rated Blade film, and addition to tackling Mutant discrimination and prejudice etc .

I don't think it's a binary either or thing, but if you think that it's an either or thing , I disagree with that , but to each is own.

 

[donuts]

If anything, my hope is after Secret Wars , these individual films will be much more standalone and not dependent on what's happening on Disney plus shows, side characters film's etc.

That's another important point. Not that they need to drop connections entirely. But Feige's little game of having movies be a tease for upcoming ones has worn off.

That's why you need stronger scripts and stronger directors. Give audiences a reason to watch the movie about this character or that character that doesn't have anything to do with the broader MCU story.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

BOM probably hasn't added the international grosses and such yet

Boxofficemojo must’ve updated shortly after I posted—it’s now showing $490M global with what appears to be a much softer drop from last weekend. In fact, the drops haven’t been as drastic lately. What’s up with that? Could it be that WOM is kicking in very late on the level of a late summer sleeper hit?

 

[donuts]

I think it has simply settled into its groove. And it has more theaters to itself now, as other summer blockbusters are slowly leaving theaters.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Boxofficemojo must’ve updated shortly after I posted—it’s now showing $490M global with what appears to be a much softer drop from last weekend. In fact, the drops haven’t been as drastic lately. What’s up with that? Could it be that WOM is kicking in very late on the level of a late summer sleeper hit?

Most of it is likely due to the transition from summer to non-summer box office patterns, but at least domestically, kids going back to school would have given WoM a fresh chance to circulate. So that may be part of it too.

 

[mace1]

I must admit , I haven't read the article itself but i've heard some of the discourse on it .

I think ultimately when it comes to Marvel and Star Wars, Disney's main focus, in terms of building and keeping and audience has to be children .

They're ultimately the ones who are gonna wants the merch , get their parents to buy the toys , games, films , etc. continue to watch the films over and over again in theaters or on streaming, and be the future audience .

I got into these properties as a child and a 12 year old on the outer end.

If you're an average 20 something guy ( i.e. not part of fandom ) , or even a mid to late teen, your views are already crystalized about the MCU at this point , and there's not that much room to grow in terms of being a consumer of these products.

That's not to say that mediocre or bad product helps to keep them engaged.

Engaged or not, if the product is mediocre consistently, people are gonna drop out of it and lose interest.

But I would think Disney's focus really needs to be the kids , children, and families.

I get the idea of wanting that teen audience and that's at been the focus of alot of these tentpole films for decades now .

But if the children start turning their nose up at Marvel products , that would really be my concern.

A Disney source says that movies for Gen Z men are part of an overall strategy across all labels, but no more urgent than any other quadrant.

Disney’s Boy Trouble: Studio Seeks Original IP to Win Back Gen-Z Men Amid Marvel, Lucasfilm Struggles

As Marvel and Lucasfilm stumble, Disney hopes originals will lure Gen Z audiences.

variety.com

 

[psylockolussus]

Domestic (52.5%)
$257,251,951

International (47.5%)
$232,800,000

Worldwide
$490,051,951 (outgrossed Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Venom: The Last Dance)

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Interesting note from deadline’s international report today (emphasis added):

Although it is skewing more towards domestic, FF:FS is the highest-grossing superhero movie of the year in Italy, Spain, Mexico and the whole of Latin America. It is again No. 1 in Brazil this weekend.

That will be noted in Disney’s c-suite.

 

[psylockolussus]

It should hit that $500 million mark in at least 3 weeks. Another 5 million for the next weekend, then its a slow crawl from there. The 490 million update is a pleasant surprise!

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Interesting note from deadline’s international report today (emphasis added):

That will be noted in Disney’s c-suite.

Very intersting. I’m sure the casting of Pascal has also brought in interest from new audiences.

 

[psylockolussus]

Boxofficemojo must’ve updated shortly after I posted—it’s now showing $490M global with what appears to be a much softer drop from last weekend. In fact, the drops haven’t been as drastic lately. What’s up with that? Could it be that WOM is kicking in very late on the level of a late summer sleeper hit?

Marvel movies (especially good ones) usually have softer weekend drops after the 2nd weekend. Thunderbolts/Brave New World were like that. With First Steps it took until the fourth weekend to drop lower than 50%.