MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Lightning Strykez!]

I honestly was beginning to feel that First Steps would crawl its way to $500M (or possibly not even make it—judging by the drastic drops), but now it’s looking within arm’s reach by next weekend. On this poll, I voted for $600M (which was a revision from far loftier goals I had many months ago as a diehard fan ). If Marvel delays its release on Disney+ and keeps this in theaters longer to fill the gap left by Superman, is there a possibility that high $500s is on the table?

 

[psylockolussus]

I honestly was beginning to feel that First Steps would crawl its way to $500M (or possibly not even make it—judging by the drastic drops), but now it’s looking within arm’s reach by next weekend. On this poll, I voted for $600M (which was a revision from far loftier goals I had many months ago as a diehard fan ). If Marvel delays its release on Disney+ and keeps this in theaters longer to fill the gap left by Superman, is there a possibility that high $500s is on the table?

I don't think it could get higher than $525 million at this point. Its hitting digital stores possibly next month. Disney+ release is probably not happening next month, but in October.

But for bragging rights sake, crossing $500 million is an achievement especially considering F4's track record at the box office. 10 years ago, it didn't even hit 200 million worldwide.

 

[FrankenCastle]

Very intersting. I’m sure the casting of Pascal has also brought in interest from new audiences.

Based on personal experience, it's quite the opposite I believe, my own mother and sister were very sceptical when I told them we're going to see the new Pedro Pascal movie (they are not superhero fans), surprinsingly they only agreed to go with me when I told them it was a F4 movie and they weren't required to watch any previous MCU movie to understand it.

People are not into Pedro Pascal that much, I think he's overexposed. Internet is such an echo chamber we forget that usually, most people don't care about who's playing who.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think the movie would have done the same at the box-office, regardless who they cast for this movie, unless its a Razzie winning performance that overshadowed the film.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

@FrankenCastle:

Hmmm. I honestly can’t say I’m seeing that sentiment broadly. Yes, we do exist in an Online echo chamber. And yes, there are some who, like yourself, believe Pascal is overexposed. But I’m not sure that’s a majority or just a very loud vocal minority. The actor has an unquestionably gigantic legion of fans.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Edit.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Boxofficemojo must’ve updated shortly after I posted—it’s now showing $490M global with what appears to be a much softer drop from last weekend. In fact, the drops haven’t been as drastic lately. What’s up with that? Could it be that WOM is kicking in very late on the level of a late summer sleeper hit?

Its because Superman is out on streaming and F4 isnt. So the longer Marvel Disney delays release of F4 on Disney plus the better

 

[Stark Bauer]

It should hit that $500 million mark in at least 3 weeks. Another 5 million for the next weekend, then its a slow crawl from there. The 490 million update is a pleasant surprise!

I think it can get to $500 mil in less than 10 days

 

[Stark Bauer]

I honestly was beginning to feel that First Steps would crawl its way to $500M (or possibly not even make it—judging by the drastic drops), but now it’s looking within arm’s reach by next weekend. On this poll, I voted for $600M (which was a revision from far loftier goals I had many months ago as a diehard fan ). If Marvel delays its release on Disney+ and keeps this in theaters longer to fill the gap left by Superman, is there a possibility that high $500s is on the table?

The absolute ceîing is $540 million. Will probably end up with $520-530 million

 

[mace1]

It should hit that $500 million mark in at least 3 weeks. Another 5 million for the next weekend, then its a slow crawl from there. The 490 million update is a pleasant surprise!

Well last weekend ff4 was below 470 and now it's 490 million.
That means during the week day upcoming it could reach around 2 million plus next weekend maybe 3 million or close and for international the same thing are around there. That means it could reach 500 million by next weekend/or before or before 2 weeks.

 

[donuts]

Totally disagree with you on that .

Getting kids who are at least 4 or 5 into this stuff crucial for the future of the franchise , and you don't have to talk down to them to do that.

But , if you disagree , fair enough.

But I totally agree with you on everything else .

I actually don't disagree with you that today's kids are tomorrow's Marvel fans.

What I'm saying is that you don't need to make the movies specifically for 5-10 year olds in order to reach them.

 

[Frodo]

I actually don't disagree with you that today's kids are tomorrow's Marvel fans.

What I'm saying is that you don't need to make the movies specifically for 5-10 year olds in order to reach them.

I don't think so either .

5-10 year olds got into Black Panther, Avengers , Iron Man, Captain America : The First Avenger, etc, without those films pandering to them .

I got into Ghostbusters, Star Wars, Batman 1989, Superman 1 and 2 , as a child in the 4-10 year old range , and those films didn't pander to children back then either .

My point was that , If children aren't into the new films post Secret Wars, don't want to see them ,get the toys, etc, as a prior generation of children did 10 and 20 years ago, that's a problem I would be concerned with .

 

[FrankenCastle]

I got into Ghostbusters, Star Wars, Batman 1989, Superman 1 and 2 , as a child in the 4-10 year old range , and those films didn't pander to children back then either .

When my little cousins and nephews come to visit, I show them old superhero movies I grew up with, Burton's Batman, Raimi's Spider-Man, the first X-Men trilogy, Tim Story's F4. . . rarely the new stuff, except some Phase 1 MCU, some post-Snyder DCEU (even if I'm not a fan) and the first two GOTG. Never got any complaints, they never told me it was old or dull, sole exception being 1978's Superman, I had to fast-forward the first hour, they found the Krypton/Smallville part boring

 

[Frodo]

When my little cousins and nephews come to visit, I show them old superhero movies I grew up with, Burton's Batman, Raimi's Spider-Man, the first X-Men trilogy, Tim Story's F4. . . rarely the new stuff, except some Phase 1 MCU, some post-Snyder DCEU (even if I'm not a fan) and the first two GOTG. Never got any complaints, they never told me it was old or dull, sole exception being 1978's Superman, I had to fast-forward the first hour, they found the Krypton/Smallville part boring

As a child, I preferred to watch Superman 2 more than Superman 1 because it had more fight and action scenes. .

I really got into Spider-Man, Fantastic Four, and X Men, in Junior high when I started collecting comics in the early 90s .

I'm old enough to have gotten them through mail order , and had them delivered every month since , there wasn't a comic shop around my area until the mid 1990s .

My first memories of anything Marvel, was The Hulk tv show and the Secret Wars toyline , which I had bunch of figures, but as a child, I didn't know Caps origin, Spider-Man's origin, Doc Ock's relation to Spiderman etc .

I just thought the toys looked cool

Unfortunately, though, they got a good bit of wear and tear in the 80s fighting GI Joe, Thundercats, and He Man figures , and they were gone by the time I started getting comics .

 

[FrankenCastle]

As a child, I preferred to watch Superman 2 more than Superman 1 because it had more fight and action scenes. .

I really got into Spider-Man, Fantastic Four, and X Men, in Junior high when I started collecting comics in the early 90s .

I'm old enough to have gotten them through mail order , and had them delivered every month since , there wasn't a comic shop around my area until the mid 1990s .

My first memories of anything Marvel, was The Hulk tv show and the Secret Wars toyline , which I had bunch of figures, but as a child, I didn't know Caps origin, Spider-Man's origin, Doc Ock's relation to Spiderman etc .

I just thought the toys looked cool

Unfortunately, though, they got a good bit of wear and tear in the 80s fighting GI Joe, Thundercats, and He Man figures , and they were gone by the time I started getting comics .
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The toys do look really freaking cool!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Weekend actual came in at 6.01m.
257.36m dom
233.16 OS
490.52 WW

 

[Frodo]

The toys do look really freaking cool!

They were pretty tight .

I also had the DC Superpowers action figures at the same time.

That's one of the reasons I became a Marvel and a DC fan as a child.

My parents spoiled me and my brother rotten with cool action figures, but hey , it was the 80s, the decade excess from toys, to hair, and clothes.

 

[FrankenCastle]

Must be rad! Both my parents were IT workers, so I didn't have much toys, but I had tons of video games, I played with superheroes, not by smashing them into each other, but by controlling them behind a screen lol.

My most precious possession was a plush of the 1996 Superman cartoon. Exactly like this one.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

It’s because Superman is out on streaming and F4 isnt. So the longer Marvel Disney delays release of F4 on Disney plus the better

So, the top three highest grossing non-sequel CBMs of this post-COVID era are now The Batman (2022) at $772M, Superman (2025) at $604M and—lo and behold—Fantastic Four: First Steps at $490M. These films have topped so many others including Shang-Chi, Eternals, Thunderbolts, The Flash, Black Widow and Black Adam. I know some haters want to s*** on FFFS for not being Endgame levels of box office performance, but when you look at all of this in its totality, it really puts everything into perspective. This film has prevailed.

The more I look at this, the more I think First Steps’ performance is akin to Batman Begins. Both films were reboots that followed previous entries that were critical and financial failures (Batman & Robin and Fan4stic 2015). However, both reboots received critical acclaim, very positive audience reception, and solid box office performances that weren’t necessarily runaway successes, but were far from flop territory.

Batman Begins‘ sequel, The Dark Knight, would go on to benefit massively from its predecessor’s success and became that huge, runaway hit.

If, over the next 12 months, First Steps gets strong “incubator” viewership on Disney+, and then Doomsday and Secret Wars successfully reintroduce the Fantastic Four to a wider audience via an ensemble cast, then Marvel could possibly get its own “Dark Knight” version of sequel success with the Fantastic Four. This film is literally the first steps—the foundational building block for something bigger if Marvel plays its cards right.

 

[Sithborg]

Nothing I have seen in the numbers to its actual reception indicates it was liked well enough to pull a Dark Knight. Frankly, expect to perform like GOTG. Steady results, maybe small increases.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Nothing I have seen in the numbers to its actual reception indicates it was liked well enough to pull a Dark Knight. Frankly, expect to perform like GOTG. Steady results, maybe small increases.

It’s all about fomenting goodwill at this point. The Batman Begins/Dark Knight example is only pertinent to my statement in that First Steps is similarly repairing the damage previously done to the franchise, and changing public perceptions of the brand. And if we continue to see late summer legs kicking in as we’re witnessing now, it all makes for enduring positive WOM and fertile ground for more successful sequels to follow.

Hell, even a horrible sequel can thrive off the strength of a well-received predecessor—look no further than Thor: Love & Thunder as proof of Ragnorok’s goodwill being squandered.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I am expecting a bump come the sequel. Will it be a billion? Probably not, but I only care that it does well enough to warrant a 3rd movie. I don't need it to be TDK or something

 

[Sithborg]

It’s all about fomenting goodwill at this point. The Batman Begins/Dark Knight example is only pertinent to my statement in that First Steps is similarly repairing the damage previously done to the franchise, and changing public perceptions of the brand. And if we continue to see late summer legs kicking in as we’re witnessing now, it all makes for enduring positive WOM and fertile ground for more successful sequels to follow.

Hell, even a horrible sequel can thrive off the strength of a well-received predecessor—look no further than Thor: Love & Thunder as proof of Ragnorok’s goodwill being squandered.

So, did GOTG 3 squander 2's goodwill? Because, it performed rather similarly to how L&T performed to Ragnarok.

I don't think there is any Avengers bump anymore. Post Endgame, one sequel grew in box office, and that is most likely attributed to being tied heavily to Spider-man just before. I don't think these massive cast Avengers movies do a good job at giving all but a small selection of characters the spotlight.

As for word of mouth, it doesn't drop like we saw it did if it had great word of mouth. Sure, it doesn't seem horrible, but it isn't convincing people to come out to see it. As for "late summer legs" too late. The damage has been done. And I think you are going to see summer is done now. Schools back, the weekdays will plummet. It is starting to loose big chunks of screens.

 

[psylockolussus]

$650 million for the sequel would be good. Unless the production budget is higher than $200 million.

February or May 2028, is the best release date to book, if they want to maximize the Avengers: Secret Wars exposure.

 

[Spider-Fan]

So, did GOTG 3 squander 2's goodwill? Because, it performed rather similarly to how L&T performed to Ragnarok.

I don't think there is any Avengers bump anymore. Post Endgame, one sequel grew in box office, and that is most likely attributed to being tied heavily to Spider-man just before. I don't think these massive cast Avengers movies do a good job at giving all but a small selection of characters the spotlight.

As for word of mouth, it doesn't drop like we saw it did if it had great word of mouth. Sure, it doesn't seem horrible, but it isn't convincing people to come out to see it. As for "late summer legs" too late. The damage has been done. And I think you are going to see summer is done now. Schools back, the weekdays will plummet. It is starting to loose big chunks of screens.

We haven't had an Avengers movie since 2019, so I dont feel comfortable saying there isn't an Avengers bump anymore at all. But I do know MoM on the back of NWH made nearly a billion, an increase of 300 mil WW.