MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Spider-Fan]

That is the range its been in for awhile. It could still go higher or lower at this point. I'd say $110-115 million opening seems right.

Pre-sales are not doing well in Korea and China (both former MCU strongholds). Hollywood films in general aren't getting the traction in those markets like they used to.

Yeah, American movies in China right now are just cooked at this point. So I wouldn't look into that as an indicator of a broader trend

 

[Pennywise]

 

[psylockolussus]

Spider-Man 2 and Far From Home would have easily crossed 100 million, but they were both released mid-week.

I specifically mentioned 3 day weekend. Iron Man also hit 100 million by Sunday, but Thursday's numbers weren't counted in the 3 day weekend.

 

[psylockolussus]

That is the range its been in for awhile. It could still go higher or lower at this point. I'd say $110-115 million opening seems right.

Pre-sales are not doing well in Korea and China (both former MCU strongholds). Hollywood films in general aren't getting the traction in those markets like they used to.

Not surprised. The Fantastic 4 isn't that popular yet overseas, hopefully with this film and Avengers appearance, it would boost their box office potential internationally for Second Steps.

 

[Zyraquis]

Even in Europe pre sales look anemic, I am worried about its overseas number.

 

[psylockolussus]

I don't think it would hit $600 million worldwide.

$500 million is still a maybe for me. This is really the part in which coming after a bigger MCU film would help, instead of Brave New World and Thunderbolts* in the last five months.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

We’re probably past the days of huge box-office numbers and we may never get back there again.

I think people are just shifting away from seeing films in theaters and opting to watch them at home instead.

And studios can make a lot of money from those home viewings that they weren’t making 10 years ago.

So I don’t know if we can directly compare box office numbers from Superman and FF to past films. But the relative numbers do give us an idea of how much interest there is in different films.

 

[psylockolussus]

There are few exceptions like Spider-Man: No Way Home and Deadpool & Wolverine. People are just more selective these days, what to watch in the movie theaters. Streaming is readily available for a cheaper price than a single movie ticket, while movie tickets are just getting higher.

I haven't been to IMAX since 2017, and I just checked the IMAX price for The Fantastic 4: First Steps, and the price is almost double the price for a Dolby Atmos screening.

 

[lenz]

Not surprised. The Fantastic 4 isn't that popular yet overseas, hopefully with this film and Avengers appearance, it would boost their box office potential internationally for Second Steps.

Fantastic Four is more popular than The Guardians of the Galaxy were when they released overseas (so is Superman) but they aren't going to perform like those films did.

This is a confluence of factors at play, mainly inflation/cost of living (which makes audiences more selective as you stated), genre fatigue, geopolitics (to varying degrees), and the way audiences viewing habits have been conditioned since 2020.

 

[DarkKnight88]

We’re probably past the days of huge box-office numbers and we may never get back there again.

‘Lilo & Stitch’ Becomes Hollywood’s First Movie to Hit $1 Billion in 2025

Disney's live-action "Lilo & Stitch" remake is the year's first Hollywood release to hit $1 billion at the worldwide box office.

variety.com

No. We’re just seeing less of them. But when everyone goes; everyone goes.

With that said; let’s not pretend that a 300M+ domestic gross is something to sneeze at either.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think if we have to stick to this Steps naming convention, then Fantastic Four: Next Steps sounds better than Second Steps

 

[psylockolussus]

Fantastic Four’s Box Office Projections Show MCU Can’t Top Superman’s Strong Start - Comic Book Movies and Superhero Movie News - SuperHeroHype

While they remain strong, it seems as if The Fantastic Four: First Steps will have trouble catching a fellow superhero.

www.superherohype.com

 

[AndrewGilkison]

Fantastic Four’s Box Office Projections Show MCU Can’t Top Superman’s Strong Start - Comic Book Movies and Superhero Movie News - SuperHeroHype

While they remain strong, it seems as if The Fantastic Four: First Steps will have trouble catching a fellow superhero.

www.superherohype.com

It seems a First Step can't beat a Tall leap In A Single Bound.

 

[psylockolussus]

Both are reboots and clearly Superman is the bigger character. It is still amazing that Fantastic 4, is forecasting an opening weekend over $100 million, after the last 2 mcu movies, mcu fatigue in the last few years and previous F4 movies.

If there's something I should be concerned of, its the 2nd weekend drop, I hope it holds well for the rest of August, and hit the 250 million mark (domestically).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Assuming the full reviews are positive (and I’m betting they will be) presales should pick up smartly and I’ll be surprised if F4 doesn’t come in in the same ballpark as Superman.

 

[Pennywise]

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

It's still tracking for north of $125 Million this weekend in most places I've searched. So much will depend on what kind of reviews it receives. I'm holding to my vote here: I still think it's possible to reach $800M to $1B worldwide--and I know that sounds insane, especially for Fantastic Four. But I feel there are many factors to consider:

1.) The Superman Factor: The recent success of Superman proves that the genre isn't dead and the CBM fatigue isn't as fatal as people have said. If it had failed critically and financially, that would've cast a shadow of gloom--a real downer--over this film as it's part of the same box office category.It's a weird "guilt by association" type of thing. If people had a great time seeing Superman, they may feel excited about seeing what Marvel has to bring next, versus increased fears of potentially wasting more $$$ at the theater.

2.) The Pascal Factor: Pedro Pascal is HOT in Hollywood right now. So many people I know personally and have read in chatrooms/threads online know zero about Fantastic Four, but they are going to see it solely for their heart throb Pascal. I think many are underestimating his appeal to the general audience right now.

3.) The Timing Factor: Marvel was wise to move First Steps to after Superman and Jurassic World--they now have no direct competition for weeks, whereas they'll be eating many of those aforementioned films' IMAX and theater screens.

4.) The Doomsday Factor: Dr. Doom is heavily rumored to make an appearance in the after credits. We'll see if this is true, but this film is a "must-see" piece of connective tissue for Avengers Doomsday and people know that. They'll turn out so they aren't out of the loop for next summer's big Marvel movie.

5.) The Nostalgic MCU Factor: Despite their hit-and-miss record lately, Marvel still enjoys goodwill among fans. It's still the brand to beat and unlike DC, it's not starting over and over and over again with the same characters. People will still give the F4 a chance just because it's the first time the characters are being showcased properly in the MCU and folks want to see Marvel win and get back on top. The Fantastic Four (along with the X-Men) are beloved and people are yearning to see them finally in this universe.

These are just 5 factors I can think of in 5 minutes. I'm not saying this film doesn't have baggage to carry from the FOX movie disasters, nor am I ignorant of the fact that this movie absolutely needs great reviews and WOM to surpass $600M at the global box office. But if it does achieve those feats, I think the sky is the limit. They've packaged this movie completely differently than anything Marvel has ever done and I think they'll get some points for that--if the movie is good!

 

[lenz]

Even if the film turns out to be good, I don't think its touching those high end numbers. I've lowered my expectations dramatically. I'd take 600m now and cash out.

I'm hoping we can get pretty solid reviews (at least mid 70's RT a la Deadpool) ) which could give it a boost, but I suspect it will be a repeat of Superman a week ago, pretty solid opening in NA, but concern overseas.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Even if the film turns out to be good, I don't think its touching those high end numbers. I've lowered my expectations dramatically. I'd take 600m now and cash out.

I'm hoping we can get pretty solid reviews (at least mid 70's RT a la Deadpool) ) which could give it a boost, but I suspect it will be a repeat of Superman a week ago, pretty solid opening in NA, but concern overseas.

Superman has had great legs though. I think FF is gonna open higher than Superman did. By how much, we will see. I am thinking similar domestic and better overseas premiere. I am also expecting mid 80s reviews at this point. I am pretty optimistic

 

[lenz]

Superman has had great legs though. I think FF is gonna open higher than Superman did. By how much, we will see. I am thinking similar domestic and better overseas premiere. I am also expecting mid 80s reviews at this point. I am pretty optimistic

I think it will be comparable to Superman in NA for it's opening weekend, but I'll be much more comfortable making that statement when we get actual reviews, which could help or hurt that scenario.

It's amazing to me it has a chance of even being close based on the performance of the past 2 MCU films and the fact that Superman had a crazy marketing campaign the last 4-5 months. Even though I'm hyped about this film being I love the Fantastic Four, a part of me still doesn't believe the hype based on the circles I've been in touch with the last 6 months . In comparison to Superman, which people were always talking about, this film didn't really sustain any lasting buzz after the trailers were shown.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think it will be comparable to Superman in NA for it's opening weekend, but I'll be much more comfortable making that statement when we get actual reviews, which could help or hurt that scenario.

It's amazing to me it has a chance of even being close based on the performance of the past 2 MCU films and the fact that Superman had a crazy marketing campaign the last 4-5 months. Even though I'm hyped about this film being I love the Fantastic Four, a part of me still doesn't believe the hype based on the circles I've been in touch with the last 6 months . In comparison to Superman, which people were always talking about, this film didn't really sustain any lasting buzz after the trailers were shown.

I have said this for ages, but Superman had hype for fans waiting for new DC. FF has an appeal with casuals that aren't social media obsessed, and thus the gap in views and such. Plus FF is going to appeal I think to families cause of the lighter tone. There is a reason the tracking for this movie has been what it is

 

[Filmfan93]

4.) The Doomsday Factor: Dr. Doom is heavily rumored to make an appearance in the after credits. We'll see if this is true, but this film is a "must-see" piece of connective tissue for Avengers Doomsday and people know that. They'll turn out so they aren't out of the loop for next summer's big Marvel movie.

Next winter*.

Next summer is Spidey 4.

But yes, your point stands.

 

[blackdragon6]

I have said this for ages, but Superman had hype for fans waiting for new DC. FF has an appeal with casuals that aren't social media obsessed, and thus the gap in views and such. Plus FF is going to appeal I think to families cause of the lighter tone. There is a reason the tracking for this movie has been what it is

Wait, Superman had a light tone too.

 

[psylockolussus]

Next winter*.

Next summer is Spidey 4.

But yes, your point stands.

Next next winter*

 

[Spider-Fan]

Wait, Superman had a light tone too.

Never said it didn't.