MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[psylockolussus]

This is really should be performing better than Thunderbolts and a Sam Wilson film, given the importance of F4 in the Marvel lore. Though most of the general public are probably not aware of that or don't care about that. They just watch what appeals to them.

Fantastic 4 doing smaller numbers than those two, would be like Deadpool 1/2 outgrossing all the X-Men movies back in the previous decade.

 

[lenz]

Well, so far the pre-sales are doing pretty well but have slowed a bit three weeks out. Like Superman, the week of release sales will really tell the tale for it's opening weekend flourish, so hopefully some positive buzz can give it a boost leading up to the 25th.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think domestic numbers would carry the box office total of this. While international markets will be the real test.

 

[lenz]

Yes. I will be interested to see what the pre-sales numbers are like in China vs Superman.

 

[psylockolussus]

I don't think it would do well in China.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I don't think it would do well in China.

Are you saying that due to the current political environment there?

 

[Mysteryman]

I Chose 800 million.
POSITIVITY!

 

[psylockolussus]

Are you saying that due to the current political environment there?

Based from the performance of recent mcu films, and Hollywood films in general.

Quantumania - 39 million
Guardians 3 - 86 million
Marvels - 15 million
Deadpool & Wolverine - 59 million
Brave New World - 14 million
Thunderbolts - 16 million

Final Reckoning - 63 million
How to Train - 31 million
Minecraft - 29 million
Lilo & Stitch - 25 million

The cast is not promoting in China as far as I am aware of.

 

[psylockolussus]

Why Superman 2025 Opening Weekend Box Office Predictions Have Dropped Again - Comic Book Movies and Superhero Movie News - SuperHeroHype

With Superman's lowered opening weekend predictions, The Fantastic Four: First Steps has a better chance of beating it at the box office.

www.superherohype.com

The site has not changes its box office projections for The Fantastic Four: First Steps in its July 11 report, which “looks to benefit from being the next-on-deck tentpole release following Superman.” Its opening weekend projections remain at $125 to $155 million, which is shockingly higher than Superman’s at this point in time. The current pace for its Thursday domestic review on July 24 is climbing toward $25 million, with critic review embargoes lifting on July 22.

 

[Superhero 101]

I’m a bit worried about what the box office for FF will be after seeing supermans numbers. I think it might end up in the 400-450ww range now

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think FF is going to out perform Superman. By how much, we will see. But I think the domestic will be similar to Superman, but the international will be better

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Anything is possible. It could come out a review worse then Brave New World. The planet could be invaded by Galactus himself the day before it's release.

What is most likely though? A bit more then Superman right now.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Anything is possible. It could come out a review worse then Brave New World. The planet could be invaded by Galactus himself the day before it's release.

What is most likely though? A bit more then Superman right now.

I think FF is going to get better than BNW reviews, but maybe not Thunderbolts level. Low end I see mid 70s, high end high 80s. If it is an Eternals or BNW situation, the math changes. But that would surprise me. BNW we could smell a rough score coming. Here, it feels like Marvel thinks they have a winner.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think FF is going to get better than BNW reviews, but maybe not Thunderbolts level. Low end I see mid 70s, high end high 80s. If it is an Eternals or BNW situation, the math changes. But that would surprise me. BNW we could smell a rough score coming. Here, it feels like Marvel thinks they have a winner.

If you told me it reviewed exactly the same as Superman, I wouldn't bat an eye.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Something tells me that it's going to be very well-reviewed. I really like Matt Shakman's approach--everything he produces is generally very well done. WandaVision is still sitting pretty at 92% fresh and he directed every episode in that series. I know movies are different, but in terms of freedom, he's obviously had the same support with Marvel for F4 as he did with WandaVision.

 

[jokesonm3]

F4's international numbers are going to be a good gauge as to how the CBM genre is doing, if it crashes internationally like Superman, BNW & Thunderbolts then Superhero fatigue really did affect the genre, especially after 2022 - 2023, outside of tentpole films like Doomsday/Secret Wars.

Feige & Gunn are going to determine what the future of comic book films are going to be like, Feige's quality mandate and Gunn's "Good script first" need to rebuild the GA's trust again, unfortunately not like pre-pandemic days, that's long gone.

 

[lenz]

I don't expect FF to do gangbusters business and my expectations have certainly been lowered after Superman. I'm sure the think pieces have already been written for the Monday after it's opening weekend about how it's result is further conformation (following Superman) of the genre's coming "end", etc, etc.

The reality is, what's in line to replace CBM's as a relatively safe bet for studios and theaters atm? Even a dramatically reduced genre in terms of profit potential and predictability will likely still be bigger on average than any other thing going on at the cinema. The studios have got decades worth of characters and stories that can be adapted still. It's not the end or even a permanent new reality, it's a transition and reframing of the genre's place in popular culture. It may never reach the height it once did monetarily, but the movies can always be better. That would be a good place for the studios to start.

 

[DarkKnight88]

Most of the press has been extremely positive for Superman’s BO so I don’t see any doom and gloom yet.

I think Fantastic Four will open just above 100M. Whether it has legs depends on WOM of course but probably under Superman’s domestic total but over it internationally. Whether that means they make more or less the same in worldwide total we’ll see.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Last tracking had FF in that 135-155 OW range. So I think FF is going to open maybe on the lower end of that, but still should clear close to 130.

 

[psylockolussus]

Superman opened with $220 million worldwide. I'm not sure The Fantastic 4: First Steps could opened bigger. Like I've said in the past, domestic numbers would do the heavy lifting. This is technically a start of a franchise/series, so its not going to have a sequel/nostalgia boost compare to Deadpool & Wolverine, No Way Home and Multiverse of Madness.

 

[lenz]

Most of the press has been extremely positive for Superman’s BO so I don’t see any doom and gloom yet.

I think Fantastic Four will open just above 100M. Whether it has legs depends on WOM of course but probably under Superman’s domestic total but over it internationally. Whether that means they make more or less the same in worldwide total we’ll see.

Domestically the box office is a positive with a solid opening, but the rest of the world (aside from maybe Brazil) has not turned up as expected. I can't see China ever being the fertile ground it used to be for these studios, not even close, so no real surprise there.

Fantastic Four is still outpacing Superman in presales, but we'll see about that in another week. If reviews are decent and the WOM prior is as positive, domestic could be comparable, but I always expected Superman to make more. James Gunn, big social media presence/engagement, big talker, new universe, etc.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I have felt like FF was going to do better. I don't think it's going to be way better. Not like, a billion or anything. But I think it's beating Superman outside the US and their domestic grosses will be similar, but even there I think FF will win cause August is light on competition.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think even this apparently very good Superman film has trouble getting past the feeling of “Been there done that” after so many films and TV shows.

And Jurassic World is also feeling a little old.

I think FF may do better than those because it feels fresher in comparison.

 

[TheGDBatman]

I think even this apparently very good Superman film has trouble getting past the feeling of “Been there done that” after so many films and TV shows.

And Jurassic World is also feeling a little old.

I think FF may do better than those because it feels fresher in comparison.

I mean, Superman (2025) is quite different from what came before. Less so for Fantastic Four when compared to other Marvel films.

Jurassic World definitely feels like a re-tread to me. But I'll still watch it...just not in theaters.

I'm not sure where to place my expectations for Fantastic Four. I thought Superman would be doing better ($700M range), but a confluence of factors has prevented that from being a reality. FF has the burden of recency bias for Marvel (a bunch of bad to mid movies/tv shows, with the exception of Thunderbolts), which makes me wonder if it'll similarly struggle to breakout overseas. If that happens then I expect FF to perform similar to Superman.

 

[lenz]

It's true the burden is there to some degree. I don't like how they seem to be dealing with that issue, such as showing 30 min of footage, or revealing big plot points in clips, etc.