MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Nightshift]

I still have this odd feeling F4FS gonna have a major drop off at the box office. This won't make DS MoM numbers.

 

[Spider-Fan]

All signs point towards it doing well. Good opening. A- Cinemascore is good. All audience rating metrics are good. So it should have good holds, especially with August being a light month this year for major releases

 

[zeptron]

The fact that they beat the 2015 reboot in one day is laughably crazy

I'll never forget this from Michael B Jordan

"They're still gonna go see it anyway."

Boy did that come back to bite him in the ass.

 

[rashad]

IM is very weak. Legs won't be particularly great.

 

[psylockolussus]

Oh.

 

[Spider-Fan]

We shall see how it goes down with the final numbers, the weekdays, and next weekend and all that. August is a lighter month, so FF can potentially pick up the pace. For me, this has never been about beating Superman. It's been about doing well enough to justify sequels and keeping the franchise going

 

[Sithborg]

We shall see how it goes down with the final numbers, the weekdays, and next weekend and all that. August is a lighter month, so FF can potentially pick up the pace. For me, this has never been about beating Superman. It's been about doing well enough to justify sequels and keeping the franchise going

Lighter, definitely. But its second weekend is going against stronger competition than Superman faced. Forecast has both of the 2 movies having a good chance of making what Smurfs and IKWYDLS made combined.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Lighter, definitely. But its second weekend is going against stronger competition than Superman faced. Forecast has both of the 2 movies having a good chance of making what Smurfs and IKWYDLS made combined.

Maybe, but again it isn't about beating Superman or winning the Summer. It's about doing well and getting a sequel, and we will see how it goes in subsequent weekends. The 120ish weekend still puts this as 2nd best OW for a Marvel movie since Phase 5 started with Quantumania

 

[donuts]

Maybe, but again it isn't about beating Superman or winning the Summer. It's about doing well and getting a sequel, and we will see how it goes in subsequent weekends. The 120ish weekend still puts this as 2nd best OW for a Marvel movie since Phase 5 started with Quantumania

Yup. This.

As long as the movie's successful enough for Marvel Studios to be confident in the Fantastic Four going forward, everything's fine and great.

As with Superman, Marvel's first family has had some challenges on the big screen. And without even the echo of past greatness that Superman had with the first two Reeve movies.

I really do not get why one would be disappointed about such results.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think both Superman and FF will be HUGE on home video - and that’s what really matters in 2025.

I’ll be buying FF on day one - for $30 or whatever. I won’t be waiting until it’s on sale for $10.

And it will help Disney+ and Max in ways that will be difficult to quantify.

I was 12 when Star wars came out and I lost count of how many times I went back to see it in the sumner of 1977.

FF is going to have a similar rewatch-ability, but in the modern world, that’s all about home theater.

Merchandise is also likely to be huge for both films.

 

[DarkKnight88]

I really do not get why one would be disappointed about such results.

Because people (some here) started to scoff at tracking and hyped numbers
as high as $150M.

The fact that this will still open above tracking ($110M) is a huge win. It’s not Superman levels, but that film I think just had a different kind of WOM that attracted non-comic book fans.

 

[Spider-Fan]

People I think are too obsessed with this Marvel vs DC thing. But, Superman is a bigger name than the FF are. So even if Superman's name has been tarnished in cinema recently, same can be said for the FF before this movie. So Superman from an IP stand point was the bigger name. Superman also had more anticipation from its audience cause it was a total reboot of DC, while FF is another cog in the MCU wheel.

But we also have to put this into perspective. We will see what final numbers end up being, but if it hits that 120 mil domestic, then it will only be slightly below Superman's OW domestically and it would be the MCU's 2nd best OW since Phase 5 started. These are not bad things, and the various metrics and reviews are strong for the movie. Plus, the FF will be prominent in the next 2 Avengers movies. So ideally, that could mean a bump for FF2.

So the sky isn't falling at this point. Everyone was very doom and gloom about Superman and its international performance, but it recovered. If FF ends up in the 550-600 global range, that to me is a success and warrants a sequel.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Even if the final numbers come in lower (looking like around 120m now) it’s a huge success. The F4 franchise was a wreck and getting it back into trim is a big win. Will be interesting to watch its run from here.

 

[Frodo]

The reality is that Superman and Fantastic Four were both tarnished film franchises going into the theaters this Summer but, it seems , that both films are resonating with the GA and Critics .

It's clearly too early to count out both Marvel Studios and DC Studios. as much as their are people in fandom who had hoped to count either film out.

 

[Spider-Fan]

To break this down a bit, I want to look at the 1st installments of the solo movies (rounding figures and by order of gross):

Black Panther - 202 Dom OW, 700 Dom Total, 1.335 WW

Black Panther first appeared in CW, so this wasn't a true 1st movie for him. It's more or less a spinoff.

Captain Marvel - 154 Dom OW, 427 Dom Total, 1.129 WW

 Spider-Man: Homecoming - 117 Dom OW, 335 Dom Total, 879 WW

Like Black Panther, also sort of a Spinoff and its Spider-Man

Guardians of the Galaxy - 94 Dom OW, 333 Dom Total, 771 WW

Iron Man - 98 Dom OW, 319 Dom Total, 585 WW

Doctor Strange - 85 Dom OW, 232 Dom Total, 676 WW

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings - 75 Dom OW, 225 Dom Total, 432 WW

Black Widow - 80 Dom OW, 184 Dom Total, 380 WW

BW and Shang-Chi released during Covid

Thunderbolts* - 74 Dom OW, 190 Dom Total, 382 WW

Most of these characters originated in other properties before this one.

Thor - 66 Dom OW, 181 Dom Total, 449 WW

Ant-Man - 58 Dom OW, 180 Dom Total, 518 WW

Captain America: The First Avenger - 66 Dom OW, 176 Dom Total, 371 WW

Eternals - 71 Dom OW, 174 Dom Total, 401 WW

Eternals released during Covid

The Incredible Hulk - 55 Dom OW, 135 Dom Total, 266 WW

So FF's OW will be higher than many of these at least domestically. But the MCU as a whole has been seeing a massive decline in international box office. Most of the higher WW entries here came during Phase 3. FF I think most estimates put it on pace for like a 550ish low end or 600ish high end depending on if the legs get better. That's a lot better than many of their recent 1st entries, their OW is going to depending upon final number either be 2nd best OW since Phase 5 or 3rd (depends if it falls below 118...in which case it'd be just under GOTG3).

So what I am saying is, I think we will be okay. Especially with how reception seems to be on the various metrics. Sure, it making like 800 mil and beating everyone would have been BETTER. But I don't see this anywhere close to a disaster. The MCU is still in a building it all back up phase.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Because people (some here) started to scoff at tracking and hyped numbers
as high as $150M.

The fact that this will still open above tracking ($110M) is a huge win. It’s not Superman levels, but that film I think just had a different kind of WOM that attracted non-comic book fans.

Well, if you’re going to compare it to Superman, both films have the same A- Cinemascore from general audiences, but Fantastic Four having both the higher critic and audience ratings on RT. So I think it’s a bit premature to say Superman has had better word of mouth when it’s been out 2 weeks versus this film that is literally waking up on its first Sunday at the box office.

What I find incredible is that we’re even talking about a Fantastic Four movie debuting north of $100M! The 2005 film opened with just $56M for its entire weekend, and every subsequent film just grossed less and less. So, this film proves that (1) Fantastic Four—as an IP—has the potential to fully rebound and overcome its past perceptions with general audiences, and (2) Marvel still has the magic to build lesser known heroes (Captain America, Guardians of The Galaxy, Iron Man, Doctor Strange, to name just a few) to enjoy massive success at the box office.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Box Office: ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Lifts Off With Heroic $118 Million Debut

Disney and Marvel's "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" lifted off with $118 million in its box office debut

variety.com

 

[DarkKnight88]

Well, if you’re going to compare it to Superman, both films have the same A- Cinemascore from general audiences, but Fantastic Four having both the higher critic and audience ratings on RT. So I think it’s a bit premature to say Superman has had better word of mouth when it’s been out 2 weeks versus this film that is literally waking up on its first Sunday at the box office.

What I find incredible is that we’re even talking about a Fantastic Four movie debuting north of $100M! The 2005 film opened with just $56M for its entire weekend, and every subsequent film just grossed less and less. So, this film proves that (1) Fantastic Four—as an IP—has the potential to fully rebound and overcome its past perceptions with general audiences, and (2) Marvel still has the magic to build lesser known heroes (Captain America, Guardians of The Galaxy, Iron Man, Doctor Strange, to name just a few) to enjoy massive success at the box office.

Again, this is a great success grossing more than what was predicted. I’m talking drops over Saturday and Sunday which for F4 are larger at the moment. But yes, curious about day to day.

And it’s impossible to compare this to a film that came out 20 years ago. That 56M was large in 2005 and would be 93M in today’s dollars.

 

[psylockolussus]

Box Office: ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Lifts Off With Heroic $118 Million Debut

Disney and Marvel's "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" lifted off with $118 million in its box office debut

variety.com

Easily outgrossed Fant4stic, and would outgross Rise of the Silver Surfer and Fantastic 4 (2005) next weekend.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Again, this is a great success grossing more than what was predicted. I’m talking drops over Saturday and Sunday which for F4 are larger at the moment. But yes, curious about day to day.

And it’s impossible to compare this to a film that came out 20 years ago. That 56M was large in 2005 and would be 93M in today’s dollars.

The thing about adjusting for inflation though is you have to also adjust the budget to make the movie, and BO conditions of the era are different. In 2005, FF didn't have to compete with a 3 month drop on D+ streaming window or 3 prior films in the franchise not being very good.

 

[DarkKnight88]

The thing about adjusting for inflation though is you have to also adjust the budget to make the movie, and BO conditions of the era are different. In 2005, FF didn't have to compete with a 3 month drop on D+ streaming window or 3 prior films in the franchise not being very good.

I don’t disagree. That’s why I said it’s kind of impossible to compare. I just think people forget that the 2005 film, while not a monster like Spider-Man, was still pretty successful around what the first X-Men film made at the time. It just didn’t build with the second film as X2 did.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The irony is the more internet subscribers your service gets the more it takes away from theatrical.

Just like GamePass takes away Xbox game sales.

So Disney+ is more detrimental to Disney releases than HBO Max is detrimental to WBD releases.

COVID19 and streaming took out a chunk of the market:

https://www.the-numbers.com/market/

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I don’t disagree. That’s why I said it’s kind of impossible to compare. I just think people forget that the 2005 film, while not a monster like Spider-Man, was still pretty successful around what the first X-Men film made at the time. It just didn’t build with the second film as X2 did.

But were the 2005/ 2007 films considered really successful even in their time? They were both critically panned and I seem to recall massive 55-60% drops in their second weekends (don’t quote me, LOL).

 

[DarkKnight88]

The first was certainly considered successful - thus why they greenlit a sequel in the first place. It played like the first X-Men at the time which is what the studio was hoping for.

But the second was a disappointment considering they were positioning it like the X-Men franchise where the sequel would’ve made much more but it actually made less than the first.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The 1st was considered a success considering it cost 100 mil, but ROTSS was considered a failure because of the diminishing returns and the prospect of the cast costs increasing, thus 3rd movie would have had a budget increase at a loss of box office. I remember a 3rd was briefly entertained. Ultimately, probably was best it didn't happen cause I think they maybe wanted to get Black Panther in the movie, and in those movies with Tim Story, would have held the IPs potential back.