MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Sithborg]

Agreed. I never understood the reasoning behind it. Does Disney have some other major tentpole scheduled in the November/ December timeframe to justify their decision here?

Their Thanksgiving-Christmas movies are Zootopia 2 and Avatar. Both are likely to be bigger than FF could ever hope to be. Nov is just rough, because you also have Wicked 2. Late August into early September may have been their best bet for having breathing room, but you also start losing kids on the weekdays.

 

[Sithborg]

Zootopia 2/Avatar 3

Imo, a better release date would have been the 1st weekend of May.

First, then were does Thunderbolts go? Second, FF then runs into the same problem Thunderbolts did, which is run into the phenomenon that was Sinners. Whose 3rd weekend, that 1st weekend of May, outgrossed Superman's 3rd weekend by almost 10 million. Which then also has to face Final Destination, which may or not be a bigger bump than Weapons, we will have to see.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Before we all start digging graves, let's see what happens this week and next week. Other MCU movies have had 60-65% drops and done better weekend 3. We just have to see this play out. I don't so much love the over analyzing we do as a society. We all need answers now. The truth is, we won't know how Disney really feels about this for probably another couple years after we see how big a priority they put on to getting a sequel to FF out there.

But also, if they end up keeping RDJ, and if they want to shoot FF2 with a shot of adrenaline into the BO, I guess the RDJ button is always there

 

[Sithborg]

Before we all start digging graves, let's see what happens this week and next week. Other MCU movies have had 60-65% drops and done better weekend 3. We just have to see this play out. I don't so much love the over analyzing we do as a society. We all need answers now. The truth is, we won't know how Disney really feels about this for probably another couple years after we see how big a priority they put on to getting a sequel to FF out there.

But also, if they end up keeping RDJ, and if they want to shoot FF2 with a shot of adrenaline into the BO, I guess the RDJ button is always there

I don't think his going rate of $50+ mill will help its BO prospects THAT much.

I like looking at the numbers. If anything, I think that this ended up being the best possible slot for FF. I don't think it would have broke $100 mil in May, coming off of BNW. Ironically, I think Superman helped it more than anything. Coming in so close after a fairly well received helped convince people to come back to the theaters.

Internationally, well, that is a whole different conversation to have.

 

[Gunniac]

I don’t understand the unnecessary doom and gloom in the first place when the movie is literally holding its own.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I don’t understand the unnecessary doom and gloom in the first place when the movie is literally holding its own.

It's the drop % and yeah, a 65% drop isn't good. But the movie also opened higher than anticipated and is still going to do better than Cap 4 or Thunderbolts by all indications. It's just not going to have those Phase 3 international numbers going for it. But regardless, it's fine and I would be shocked if it doesn't get a sequel.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I’m not quite as worried about a +/- 60% drop. Other “freshmen” Marvel films have experienced that and rebounded beautifully. Didn’t the first Tom Holland Spider-Man movie deal with that?

The fact that this F4 film will undoubtedly gross more than ALL of the previous FOX FF films is one of the biggest victories in my opinion. The franchise is finally viable.

 

[Hannibal75]

People always complain about the quality of franchise movies.
So when some great franchsie films appear (Thunderbolts, Superman, F4) they rush to spend their money in garbage like Jurassic Rebirth and Minecraft.

 

[blackdragon6]

if they want to shoot FF2 with a shot of adrenaline into the BO, I guess the RDJ button is always there

God, please no

 

[psylockolussus]

$158,427,635, already outgrossed Fantastic 4, X-Men: Apocalypse and X-Men.

$257,486,446, already outgrossed X-Men: Dark Phoenix globally.

It should be close to $350 million this weekend, especially international numbers haven't been updated since the Sunday tally.

 

[psylockolussus]

First, then were does Thunderbolts go? Second, FF then runs into the same problem Thunderbolts did, which is run into the phenomenon that was Sinners. Whose 3rd weekend, that 1st weekend of May, outgrossed Superman's 3rd weekend by almost 10 million. Which then also has to face Final Destination, which may or not be a bigger bump than Weapons, we will have to see.

Thunderbolts and Brave New World shouldn't have been made in my opinion.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Day 7 domestic multipliers (day 7 ÷ first weekend) | final multiplier
Brave New World: 1.27 | 2.26
Thunderbolts*: 1.28 | 2.56
First Steps: 1.35

$117,644,828 * 2.26 = $265,877,311
$117,644,828 * 2.56 = $301,170,760

 

[psylockolussus]

I’m not quite as worried about a +/- 60% drop. Other “freshmen” Marvel films have experienced that and rebounded beautifully. Didn’t the first Tom Holland Spider-Man movie deal with that?

The fact that this F4 film will undoubtedly gross more than ALL of the previous FOX FF films is one of the biggest victories in my opinion. The franchise is finally viable.

Yes. Highest grossing Fantastic 4 film to date.

And its definitely hitting 200 million domestically by Sunday or Monday. Initially, I was just hoping it to outgross Fantastic 4 (2005) as I don't want get my hopes up, but in just 7 days, it already outgrossed the 2005 film, as well several FoX-Men movies and two MCU films.

Considering F4 isn't as popular as X-Men, Spider-Man, Superman and Batman, the recent misteps of Marvel Studios and the Fantastic 4 track record in the movies, this is doing really well.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Yes. Highest grossing Fantastic 4 film to date.

And its definitely hitting 200 million domestically by Sunday or Monday. Initially, I was just hoping it to outgross Fantastic 4 (2005) as I don't want get my hopes up, but in just 7 days, it already outgrossed the 2005 film, as well several FoX-Men movies and two MCU films.

Considering F4 isn't as popular as X-Men, Spider-Man, Superman and Batman, the recent misteps of Marvel Studios and the Fantastic 4 track record in the movies, this is doing really well.

Yes. There’s a very strong possibility that this film may be what some have called “a slow burner” or “dark horse.” In other words, it starts out huge, levels out a bit in its first 2 weeks, and then as WOM spreads, it just continues to grow over time.

 

[Venom 1988]

Thunderbolts and Brave New World shouldn't have been made in my opinion.

Thunderbolts is a great movie, so no. You get super defensive about people criticizing FF but have no problem dogpiling on other movies.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

What I find worrying is that this movie, seemingly, had everything going for it. Completely stand-alone, great critical reception, characters that people at the very least know (unlike, say, the Thunderbolts) and the GA just isn't interested. I guess all we can hope is that the next two Avengers movies elevate these characters and the second FF film will benefit from it.

 

[donuts]

What I find worrying is that this movie, seemingly, had everything going for it. Completely stand-alone, great critical reception, characters that people at the very least know (unlike, say, the Thunderbolts) and the GA just isn't interested. I guess all we can hope is that the next two Avengers movies elevate these characters and the second FF film will benefit from it.

You're acting as if the movie's going down in flames at the BO. It's not.

 

[kguillou]

Yeah guys this movie is by no means failing. It opened to nearly 120 million! A FANTASTIC FOUR movie! It will be the highest grossing Marvel film this year by a considerable margin.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

You're acting as if the movie's going down in flames at the BO. It's not.

It might drop 66% this weekend even though it's critically well-received and has no new competition. It will miss 300M domestic and 600M worldwide (doing significantly worse internationally than Superman btw). The GA is simply not interested.

 

[Spider-Fan]

It might drop 66% this weekend even though it's critically well-received and has no new competition. It will miss 300M domestic and 600M worldwide (doing significantly worse internationally than Superman btw). The GA is simply not interested.

And yet, still going to outperform quite a few 1st solo movies.

 

[donuts]

It might drop 66% this weekend even though it's critically well-received and has no new competition. It will miss 300M domestic and 600M worldwide (doing significantly worse internationally than Superman btw). The GA is simply not interested.

Which wouldn't be the end of the world.

It's still going to be the most successful Fantastic Four movie, and Marvel's biggest hit this year.

$500M+ ain't too shabby.

And it's also doing better than Superman internationally in some countries (such as France, Germany and Italy).

 

[psylockolussus]

What I find worrying is that this movie, seemingly, had everything going for it. Completely stand-alone, great critical reception, characters that people at the very least know (unlike, say, the Thunderbolts) and the GA just isn't interested. I guess all we can hope is that the next two Avengers movies elevate these characters and the second FF film will benefit from it.

What numbers were you expecting from this? Its not a direct sequel, its a reboot for Fantastic 4 who never opened beyond $100 million domestically in the past. There's no Avenger and cross over as well.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

11.7 Friday. Rough weekend drop incoming.

 

[ReadyOReady]

It might drop 66% this weekend even though it's critically well-received and has no new competition. It will miss 300M domestic and 600M worldwide (doing significantly worse internationally than Superman btw). The GA is simply not interested.

"doing significantly worse internationally than Superman btw)." That's not true.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

11.7 Friday. Rough weekend drop incoming.

Yeah. I hope that everyone understand that I'm not dogging on the film itself. But the extremely frontloaded OW and now the big drops suggest that only the Marvel diehards are showing up for it even though this is as GA-friendly as you can get with a new Marvel movie nowadays.