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MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

How much will it make at the box office?

  • >$1 Billion

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • $1 Billion

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • $900 Million

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • $800 Million

    Votes: 3 6.4%
  • $700 MIllion

    Votes: 15 31.9%
  • $600 Million

    Votes: 16 34.0%
  • $500 Million

    Votes: 10 21.3%
  • <$500 Million

    Votes: 3 6.4%

  • Total voters
    47
I think catching up to Superman (domestically) is all but gone at this point. But it *may* have a chance at 300M depending how well it holds from here on out. Maybe just under though.
 
Considering recent MCU success, mid 500s is still not bad
 
But the legs show people aren't interested. Which is definitely not good.
Maybe, but it's still a decent result for the new franchise overall. You can try and do some stuff come a sequel to maybe get those numbers up or use the Doomsday platform to help elevate them to a higher BO ceiling.
 
This is a bad take. Variety is being vicious, but they are far closer to reality. There was no comp for F4 this weekend. The Bad Guys is the big opener with 22m. Superman and JW did 25m combined. Superman and JW are a month old. Superman dropped far less with a 10 day old JW.

40m reported second weekend. Such a round number probably means studio fudging. Worse yet, Superman and F4 are now even OS after the second weekend. Mid 500m looking like the landing spot.
I took their take as meaning Superman didn’t have another superhero film in its immediate orbit prior to its debut. In other words, when Superman came out it was the first and only choice for people who love CBMs. By the time Fantastic Four arrived, audiences now had two choices. Now, let’s say a lot of those people took their families to see Superman more than once. They might have exhausted their budgets for July. And with F4 undoubtedly coming to Disney Plus within the next couple of months, they opted to sit F4 out.

Again, Fantastic Four did slightly better with RT critics and audiences than Superman and both got A- Cinemascores. So, something is off with the general audiences. We can’t simply write it off as “lack of interest.”

Personally, I think it’s the Disney Plus streaming option that’s biting them in the ass.
 
Maybe, but it's still a decent result for the new franchise overall. You can try and do some stuff come a sequel to maybe get those numbers up or use the Doomsday platform to help elevate them to a higher BO ceiling.
For me the issue is that there is a lowering floor for these type of movies now. F4 is performing a lot like Ant-Man and the Wasp domestically. I believe adjusted for inflation, they'd be rather similar.

With the Avengers I worry Marvel is feeding that nostalgia bug to a point where that's all audiences want going forward.
 
For me the issue is that there is a lowering floor for these type of movies now. F4 is performing a lot like Ant-Man and the Wasp domestically. I believe adjusted for inflation, they'd be rather similar.

With the Avengers I worry Marvel is feeding that nostalgia bug to a point where that's all audiences want going forward.
But that isn't really a fault of FF's specifically nor is the shrinking of the various international markets. There is a lot at play when it comes to all that, chief amongst them being polticial stuff that is out of all our hands until we can hopefully vote for someone who won't hurt our standing elsewhere.

All you can hope for is Marvel starts producing better quality. Eventually, better product will help turn some of this around, and with Thunderbolts and FF, I do think there is a sign of a quality uptick in those projects. Hopefully that continues across the board. It will show up in the financials eventually if they do
 
I took their take as meaning Superman didn’t have another superhero film in its immediate orbit prior to its debut. In other words, when Superman came out it was the first and only choice for people who love CBMs. By the time Fantastic Four arrived, audiences now had two choices. Now, let’s say a lot of those people took their families to see Superman more than once. They might have exhausted their budgets for July. And with F4 undoubtedly coming to Disney Plus within the next couple of months, they opted to sit F4 out.

Again, Fantastic Four did slightly better with RT critics and audiences than Superman and both got A- Cinemascores. So, something is off with the general audiences. We can’t simply write it off as “lack of interest.”

Personally, I think it’s the Disney Plus streaming option that’s biting them in the ass.
Here is the problem with this. Superman is still dropping well. People are still engaging with it. They are choosing it over F4. Same with JW. That is an issue with the F4. Not all CS are built the same. MoS also had an A-. Did it have the same domestic reception as Superman? Of course not. JW had a B and is clearly going over far better with families then F4. Unless a movie gets a A or A+, there is always a chance it's skewing based on a fanbase reaction that will not show how GA is reacting.

Superman had direct comp with JW to deal with. Both of those movies have coexisted perfectly fine. JW has coexisted with F1 perfectly well OS, where both have been rather sizable beast.

The issue here is F4. It has not engaged a wider audience. We can argue why, but Superman didn't pull a Barbie or Deadpool and Wolverine. It's not sucking up all the money in the world. There is plenty left on the table. F4 just isn't getting the interest.
 
Eh, debut movies in the MCU have rarely been big box office draws. Only three have cracked 600m. It’s the team-ups and Avengers films that have made the big bucks. I’m bummed it isn’t doing better, but I can’t say I’m surprised.
 
Eh, debut movies in the MCU have rarely been big box office draws. Only three have cracked 600m. It’s the team-ups and Avengers films that have made the big bucks. I’m bummed it isn’t doing better, but I can’t say I’m surprised.
No? GotG, Doctor Strange, Homecoming, Black Panther, and Captain Marvel all did well over 600m. I think after Phase 1, only Ant-Man didn't break 600m (they made 520m with Ant-Man!) before the pandemic. And Shang-Chi and Eternals doing over 400m was definitely decent business for that time. The former's domestic run had rather good legs.
 
No? GotG, Doctor Strange, Homecoming, Black Panther, and Captain Marvel all did well over 600m. I think after Phase 1, only Ant-Man didn't break 600m (they made 520m with Ant-Man!) before the pandemic. And Shang-Chi and Eternals doing over 400m was definitely decent business for that time. The former's domestic run had rather good legs.
Homecoming and Black Panther though are sort of spinoff movies to Civil War, though. So I would put an asterisk next to those ones. They're not true debut 1st movies like FF was here.
 
Homecoming and Black Panther though are sort of spinoff movies to Civil War, though. So I would put an asterisk next to those ones. They're not true debut 1st movies like FF was here.
Exactly. And that ought to have taught them something about how to better introduce new characters, but it appears it didn’t take.
 
Black Panther destroyed Civil War. And it wasn't because T'Challa was in CW.
I def think it helped quite a bit. As people want to say, CW was a sort of Avengers movie lite, and he had a very prominent role in it. You can't convince me that was not a factor. The entire reason it succeeded? No. It's a high quality movie and got a BP nomination for a reasom. But it certainly contributed
 
I def think it helped quite a bit. As people want to say, CW was a sort of Avengers movie lite, and he had a very prominent role in it. You can't convince me that was not a factor
Spider-Man's performance emphasize why this wasn't the case. Same with Civil War.

Black Panther was a cultural moment that saw black folks bask in Coogler bringing their culture to what up to that point, and been an incredibly white MCU. The heavy lifting was done by Coogler and Boseman. Sinners really backs up the case.

Also using these rules for "debuts" then Deadpool and Wolverine was a debut.
 
Spider-Man's performance emphasize why this wasn't the case. Same with Civil War.

Black Panther was a cultural moment that saw black folks bask in Coogler bringing their culture to what up to that point, and been an incredibly white MCU. The heavy lifting was done by Coogler and Boseman. Sinners really backs up the case.

Also using these rules for "debuts" then Deadpool and Wolverine was a debut.
No cause Deadpool was a sequel to another movie in a different franchise that crossed over. Not at all a debut. And again, I didn't say CW is the only reason BP succeeded. But it did help. After Avengers came out, and the franchises got the Avengers bump, Iron Man 3 got a larger bump than Cap or Thor did. But they all still got bumps. So, being introduced prior in another billion dollar movie grants you a bump that this being your first movie doesn't
 
This is where I feel the film did come up short in the editing department. For example, the flash-back scenes of the FF fighting Red Ghost, Mole Man, Giganto, etc. could have been drawn out a LOT more than they were. They had an opportunity to recreate the FF’s first front comic cover and gave it literally 2 seconds of time on screen. If you blinked you missed it—and there was such a great chance there to show the Four using their powers for a bigger action sequence. Arguably the Little Ceasers Pizza commercial gave us more of that battle.:woozy:
Yeah I’m sure they’re wishing they’d have expanded that montage. This and Thunderbolts were both well reviewed yet found lacking in the action department with softer than expected box office results. FF really reminded me of a Singer X-men film and those werent box office juggernauts either.
 
No cause Deadpool was a sequel to another movie in a different franchise that crossed over. Not at all a debut. And again, I didn't say CW is the only reason BP succeeded. But it did help. After Avengers came out, and the franchises got the Avengers bump, Iron Man 3 got a larger bump than Cap or Thor did. But they all still got bumps. So, being introduced prior in another billion dollar movie grants you a bump that this being your first movie doesn't
It's an MCU debut. Using these rules, it's a debut film.

Why did Spider-Man not do anywhere near Black Panther's total? Why did Black Panther do so much better then Civil War? Everything is a "part of it". But Avengers bumps aren't all built the same. Black Panther's success is primarily down to it's cultural significance.
 
It's an MCU debut. Using these rules, it's a debut film.

Why did Spider-Man not do anywhere near Black Panther's total? Why did Black Panther do so much better then Civil War? Everything is a "part of it". But Avengers bumps aren't all built the same. Black Panther's success is primarily down to it's cultural significance.
So, having character exposure in a movie that made a billion dollars helped in absolutely no way?

We are not going to agree here, so may as well move on
 
So, having character exposure in a movie that made a billion dollars helped in absolutely no way?

We are not going to agree here, so may as well move on
I didn't say in no way. That's a strawman. But it's not nearly as big a part as you seem to want to argue it is.

How many solo Avengers movies do better then their last "Avengers" movie? The answer is one. And it wasn't Iron Man 3. They all saw boost, but none came close to eclipsing their Avengers flick. Only Black Panther did it. And it wasn't because he was in Civil War.

I get it. Most wouldn't understand it. It's a culture thing you need to experience. But the numbers are very, very clear imo. Black Panther was different.
 
I didn't say in no way. That's a strawman. But it's not nearly as big a part as you seem to want to argue it is.

How many solo Avengers movies do better then their last "Avengers" movie? The answer is one. And it wasn't Iron Man 3. They all saw boost, but none came close to eclipsing their Avengers flick. Only Black Panther did it. And it wasn't because he was in Civil War.

I get it. Most wouldn't understand it. It's a culture thing you need to experience. But the numbers are very, very clear imo. Black Panther was different.
I am not writing off BP's cultural significance. But as I said, after Avengers, both Thor and Cap got Avengers bumps, but not to the extent Iron Man 3 did. But why do you think Marvel put him in CW? Reason: exposure to sell his spinoff. That's why he was there. Admitting that doesn't diminish why it succeeded. Marvel did a great job at marketing that character. The BO reflects success in that strategy.

But also, for that reason, I don't consider Homecoming nor BP or D&W as debut movies. All these characters existed before they got their movies (in DP's case, it was the end of a trilogy). Thus I see a character like Doctor Strange or Ant-Man or the GOTG as more fair comparisons for the FF. That's all.
 
Eh, debut movies in the MCU have rarely been big box office draws. Only three have cracked 600m. It’s the team-ups and Avengers films that have made the big bucks. I’m bummed it isn’t doing better, but I can’t say I’m surprised.

This film had an uphill climb given the fact it was a damaged franchise , and given the fact it wasn't a spin off from other MCU films .

All that said though, the fact that film is gonna make at least 500 Million, given the headwinds of a damaged franchise, no lead ins, and a segment of fans rooting for the film's failure , I consider an achievement.

Ultimately, alot of the chiding this film is getting is over the box office , as opposed to the actual film.

For all the hand wringing in fandom, I've yet to see anyone claim the film is suffering because it's bad ,or because audiences and critics didn't like it.

I wouldn't be surprised if the film is number one again next weekend.
 
I'm surprised by the drop off but also not at the same time. The marketing was great, but it fell just below my expectations especially around the spectacle of Galactus. I found it so odd how Marvel sold the mystery of the villain so well in marketing, only to not deliver.
 
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