MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Lightning Strykez!]

I’m hating the box office news headlines today. Oof, painful. Variety’s said “Fantastic Four Craters In Its Second Weekend”. Statements like that don’t exactly inspire general audiences to go out and see it. I think there’s a sentiment out there that some folks really want to see Marvel fall because it’s been such an unstoppable box office juggernaut, and clearly Feige & Co. got very cocky/ overconfident with many of their decisions.

It’s just unfair that The Fantastic Four—finally the best film they’ve put out in YEARS—is reaping the consequences of all this.

Sigh.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

This film had an uphill climb given the fact it was a damaged franchise , and given the fact it wasn't a spin off from other MCU films .

All that said though, the fact that film is gonna make at least 500 Million, given the headwinds of a damaged franchise, no lead ins, and a segment of fans rooting for the film's failure , I consider an achievement.

Ultimately, alot of the chiding this film is getting is over the box office , as opposed to the actual film.

For all the hand wringing in fandom, I've yet to see anyone claim the film is suffering because it's bad ,or because audiences and critics didn't like it.

I wouldn't be surprised if the film is number one again next weekend.

That would be nice but I suspect Weapons will take the crown next weekend.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

No? GotG, Doctor Strange, Homecoming, Black Panther, and Captain Marvel all did well over 600m. I think after Phase 1, only Ant-Man didn't break 600m (they made 520m with Ant-Man!) before the pandemic. And Shang-Chi and Eternals doing over 400m was definitely decent business for that time. The former's domestic run had rather good legs.

Wouldn’t a better comparison for F4 be the Guardians of The Galaxy? Ensemble group like the Fantastic Four, but no real connections or cameos from other Marvel heroes. Their first movie had a second weekend domestic gross of $41.5M. That represented a 55.3% drop from its opening weekend. The film had a strong opening weekend with $94.3 million, but went on to gross $773.4 million worldwide.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I’m hating the box office news headlines today. Oof, painful. Variety’s said “Fantastic Four Craters In Its Second Weekend”. Statements like that don’t exactly inspire general audiences to go out and see it. I think there’s a sentiment out there that some folks really want to see Marvel fall because it’s been such an unstoppable box office juggernaut, and clearly Feige & Co. got very cocky/ overconfident with many of their decisions.

It’s just unfair that The Fantastic Four—finally the best film they’ve put out in YEARS—is reaping the consequences of all this.

Sigh.

We shall see. Even if it makes mid 500s, FF will still be the 3rd best earner since Phase 5 started (D&W being 1 and GOTG3 being 2). If you want FF2 to do better:

-Feature them in a team-up: Already happening as they will be in Doomsday and Secret Wars

-Put them in Spider-Man 5 and have Johnny Storm be the featured guest star. NWH helped MoM make nearly a billion. Use the FF the same way

-Make sure you make a good movie....maybe emphasize action a bit more.

Like I said....I am still sure FF2 is coming. But all these things could help maximize exposure for the FF

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

We shall see. Even if it makes mid 500s, FF will still be the 3rd best earner since Phase 5 started (D&W being 1 and GOTG3 being 2). If you want FF2 to do better:

-Feature them in a team-up: Already happening as they will be in Doomsday and Secret Wars

-Put them in Spider-Man 5 and have Johnny Storm be the featured guest star. NWH helped MoM make nearly a billion. Use the FF the same way

-Make sure you make a good movie....maybe emphasize action a bit more.

Like I said....I am still sure FF2 is coming. But all these things could help maximize exposure for the FF

I like the idea of the FF being featured in Spider-Man 5–it makes sense. I just hope they can squeeze another SM film out of Tom Holland—I’ve read he’s pretty much over it and ready to move on.

I’m genuinely surprised that First Steps did not end with the team making it to the 616 universe. The mid-credits scene notwithstanding, it seems to me that they’ll play a much bigger heavy-lifting role in Doomsday because that storyline still has to (1) establish Dr. Doom in the 828 universe, (2) get the F4 from their world to ours, (3) connect the F4 and Dr. Doom with the Avengers, and (4) then establish a conflict with Dr. Doom. That’s a 3 hour movie right there.

I just hope Feige & Co. have a plan drawn out for all of this. It doesn’t feel like it, and the box office numbers will reflect it if audiences walk out confused or dissatisfied.

 

[OnLeatherWings]

I think there’s a sentiment out there that some folks really want to see Marvel fall.

Oh, there is. 110%.

It's a long list of reasons, though. Not just that they've been on top for so long. We cannot discount the culture war aspect; MCU is Disney. Disney is 'woke'. Disney 'ruined' Star Wars, too. Thanks to 'wokeness' there, too.

That's a big reason for that sentiment. You've got half the voting population being told by Fox News and the likes of Shapiro, Rogan, Kirk, and many others that the MCU is corrupted and PC.

Heck, I've talked to people who actually have liked Disney's MCU stuff or the newest Indy or Star Wars project in private, but will bash these things publicly just to spite Disney.

Couple that with the fact that the MCU has overloaded the airwaves with content that left a lot of people behind due to its frequency and 'homework', the notion that many people saw Endgame was a literally end (it was marketed in that way, too), the GA getting tired of superhero films, the formulaic nature, some middling to bad films, etc.

It's all just adding up and coming to roost at once.

 

[psylockolussus]

$198,427,635, outgrossed Captain America: First Avenger, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Ant-Man, Thor, Black Widow, Thunderbolts* and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse domestically.

$368,727,635, outgrossed X-Men, Fantastic 4: Rise of Silver Surfer, Fantastic 4 and X-Men: First Class globally.

 

[Blade Hoarder]

I’m hating the box office news headlines today. Oof, painful. Variety’s said “Fantastic Four Craters In Its Second Weekend”. Statements like that don’t exactly inspire general audiences to go out and see it. I think there’s a sentiment out there that some folks really want to see Marvel fall because it’s been such an unstoppable box office juggernaut, and clearly Feige & Co. got very cocky/ overconfident with many of their decisions.

It’s just unfair that The Fantastic Four—finally the best film they’ve put out in YEARS—is reaping the consequences of all this.

Sigh.

The gen pub isn’t reading variety headlines.

 

[psylockolussus]

North America (Marvel, 198M to 299M)

Spoiler

$262,030,663 Amazing Spider-Man
$259,766,572 Winter Soldier
$234,362,462 Last Stand
$233,921,534 Days of Future Past
$232,641,920 Doctor Strange
$226,277,068 Logan
$224,543,292 Legend of the Ten Rings
$222,527,828 Big Hero 6
$216,648,740 Ant-Man and the Wasp
$214,949,694 X2
$214,504,909 Quantumania
$213,550,366 Let There Be Carnage
$213,515,506 Venom
$206,362,140 Dark World
$202,853,933 Amazing Spider-Man 2
$200,500,001 Brave New World
$198,427,635 First Steps (10 days)

Global (Marvel, 368M to 499M)

Spoiler

$478,937,618 Last Dance
$476,071,180 Quantumania
$460,435,291 Last Stand
$449,326,618 Thor
$432,243,292 Legend of the Ten Rings
$415,101,577 Brave New World
$414,828,246 The Wolverine
$407,711,549 X2
$402,064,899 Eternals
$393,602,435 Into the Spider-Verse
$382,416,298 Thunderbolts
$379,751,655 Black Widow
$373,062,864 Origins: Wolverine
$370,569,774 First Avenger
$368,727,635 First Steps (12 days)

North America (MCU)

Spoiler

$858,373,000 Endgame
$814,866,759 No Way Home
$700,426,566 Black Panther
$678,815,482 Infinity War
$636,745,858 Deadpool & Wolverine
$623,357,910 Avengers
$459,005,868 Age of Ultron
$453,829,060 Wakanda Forever
$426,829,839 Captain Marvel
$411,331,607 Multiverse of Madness
$409,013,994 Iron Man 3
$408,084,349 Civil War
$391,283,774 Far from Home
$389,813,101 Vol. 2
$358,995,815 Volume 3
$343,256,830 Love and Thunder
$334,952,829 Homecoming
$333,718,600 Guardians
$319,034,126 Iron Man
$315,058,289 Ragnarok
$312,433,331 Iron Man 2
$259,766,572 Winter Soldier
$232,641,920 Doctor Strange
$224,543,292 Legend of the Ten Rings
$216,648,740 Ant-Man and the Wasp
$214,504,909 Quantumania
$206,362,140 Dark World
$200,500,001 Brave New World
$198,427,635 First Steps (10 days)
$190,253,709 Thunderbolts
$183,651,655 Black Widow
$181,030,624 Thor
$180,202,163 Ant-Man
$176,654,505 First Avenger
$164,870,234 Eternals
$134,806,913 Incredible Hulk
$84,500,223 Marvels

International (MCU)

Spoiler

$1,941,066,100 Endgame
$1,369,544,272 Infinity War
$1,106,189,293 No Way Home
$943,800,000 Age of Ultron
$895,455,078 Avengers
$805,797,258 Iron Man 3
$745,211,944 Civil War
$741,395,911 Far from Home
$701,444,955 Captain Marvel
$701,327,787 Deadpool & Wolverine
$646,853,595 Black Panther
$545,965,784 Homecoming
$544,444,197 Multiverse of Madness
$538,918,837 Ragnarok
$486,559,962 Volume 3
$473,942,950 Vol. 2
$454,654,931 Winter Soldier
$445,076,475 Doctor Strange
$439,600,000 Guardians
$438,421,000 Dark World
$417,671,251 Love and Thunder
$406,025,399 Ant-Man and the Wasp
$405,379,776 Wakanda Forever
$339,109,802 Ant-Man
$311,500,000 Iron Man 2
$268,295,994 Thor
$266,762,121 Iron Man
$261,566,271 Quantumania
$237,194,665 Eternals
$214,601,576 Brave New World
$207,700,000 Legend of the Ten Rings
$196,100,000 Black Widow
$193,915,269 First Avenger
$192,162,589 Thunderbolts
$170,300,000 First Steps (12 days)
$129,964,083 Incredible Hulk
$121,636,602 Marvels

Global (MCU)

Spoiler

$2,799,439,100 Endgame
$2,052,415,039 Infinity War
$1,921,407,902 No Way Home
$1,520,538,536 Avengers
$1,405,018,048 Age of Ultron
$1,349,926,083 Black Panther
$1,338,073,645 Deadpool & Wolverine
$1,266,152,644 Iron Man 3
$1,155,046,416 Civil War
$1,132,705,055 Far from Home
$1,131,416,446 Captain Marvel
$955,775,804 Multiverse of Madness
$880,960,014 Homecoming
$863,756,903 Vol. 2
$859,208,836 Wakanda Forever
$855,301,806 Ragnarok
$845,555,777 Volume 3
$773,350,376 Guardians
$760,928,081 Love and Thunder
$714,421,503 Winter Soldier
$677,796,833 Doctor Strange
$644,783,140 Dark World
$623,933,331 Iron Man 2
$622,674,139 Ant-Man and the Wasp
$585,796,247 Iron Man
$519,311,965 Ant-Man
$476,071,180 Quantumania
$449,326,618 Thor
$432,243,292 Legend of the Ten Rings
$415,101,577 Brave New World
$402,064,899 Eternals
$382,416,298 Thunderbolts
$379,751,655 Black Widow
$370,569,774 First Avenger
$368,727,635 First Steps (12 days)
$264,770,996 Incredible Hulk
$206,136,825 Marvels

 

[Frodo]

The F4 brand has been damaged by the previous films, no doubt, but the rooting for failure isn't from the GA , it's from segments of fandom, who, for a variety of reasons , don't want this film to succeed.

Ultimately, the team isn't going anywhere, and Reed Richards is an essential character in the Marvel Universe .

They aren't gonna abandoned the team because some segments of fandom call First Steps " a Flop " or don't want Marvel Studios, to succeed. .

So , we're going to see The Fantastic Four again , regardless of what some fans may wish.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

The F4 brand has been damaged by the previous films, no doubt, but the rooting for failure isn't from the GA , it's from segments of fandom, who, for a variety of reasons , don't want this film to succeed.

Ultimately, the team isn't going anywhere, and Reed Richards is an essential character in the Marvel Universe .

They aren't gonna abandoned the team because some segments of fandom call First Steps " a Flop " or don't want Marvel Studios, to succeed. .

So , we're going to see The Fantastic Four again , regardless of what some fans may wish.

I agree with you. I just checked Box Office Mojo’s numbers and as of today, First Steps is honing in on $400 Million worldwide—and it’s only been a week.

So, there’s still great potential for this franchise to grow over the coming weeks, and incentive for Marvel to make the F4 the new center of their universe. Perhaps the early introduction of Franklin Richards will (1) fast track the “reset” so many are waiting for, (2) eliminate the confusing Multiverse, and (3) streamline Spider-Man, The Avengers, the Fantastic Four and The X-Men into one timeline once and for all.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Oh, there is. 110%.

It's a long list of reasons, though. Not just that they've been on top for so long. We cannot discount the culture war aspect; MCU is Disney. Disney is 'woke'. Disney 'ruined' Star Wars, too. Thanks to 'wokeness' there, too.

That's a big reason for that sentiment. You've got half the voting population being told by Fox News and the likes of Shapiro, Rogan, Kirk, and many others that the MCU is corrupted and PC.

Heck, I've talked to people who actually have liked Disney's MCU stuff or the newest Indy or Star Wars project in private, but will bash these things publicly just to spite Disney.

Couple that with the fact that the MCU has overloaded the airwaves with content that left a lot of people behind due to its frequency and 'homework', the notion that many people saw Endgame was a literally end (it was marketed in that way, too), the GA getting tired of superhero films, the formulaic nature, some middling to bad films, etc.

It's all just adding up and coming to roost at once.

Thank you for mentioning this—I agree with you. There is a political element fueling some of the backlash Marvel is facing—whether it’s 100% deserved or not. There’s an almost jealous—dare I say it, resentful—air to it. And it does influence some of the toxic fanboy commentary on these sites (which inevitably spills into the greater social narrative in the United States). I tried broaching this topic here in this forum a few weeks ago: I felt it could be a potential challenge for this film’s success—but no one wanted to talk about it.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

From Variety just now:

“Meanwhile, Disney and Marvel's "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" remained atop international charts with $39.6 million from 52 territories in its second weekend of release, declining 58% from its debut. So far, the superhero adaptation has grossed $368.7 million worldwide, including $170.3 million internationally and $198.4 million in North America.”

Box Office: 'Jurassic World Rebirth' Surpasses $750 Million, 'F1' Becomes Brad Pitt's Highest-Grossing Movie Ever — Variety

"Jurassic World Rebirth" keeps roaring at the box office with ticket sales clearing the $750 million milestone over the weekend.

apple.news

So, a comparatively softer 2nd weekend decline overseas. Interesting.

 

[donuts]

Yeah, I've mentioned among the doom and gloom that fantastic Four is actually doing very well in several european countries.

 

[zeptron]

I’m hating the box office news headlines today. Oof, painful. Variety’s said “Fantastic Four Craters In Its Second Weekend”. Statements like that don’t exactly inspire general audiences to go out and see it. I think there’s a sentiment out there that some folks really want to see Marvel fall because it’s been such an unstoppable box office juggernaut, and clearly Feige & Co. got very cocky/ overconfident with many of their decisions.

It’s just unfair that The Fantastic Four—finally the best film they’ve put out in YEARS—is reaping the consequences of all this.

Sigh.

I blame Fox and Josh Trank for this.

 

[blackdragon6]

Just to ensure it makes more money, I could definitely see the FF’s sequel including Holland’s Spidey and/or RDJ’s Doom. I feel like some more starpower is definitely needed.

Doom yes, but I'd rather it be someone other than RDJ tbh

 

[Sithborg]

Right wing outrage has yet to sink a movie or show. Do not give those grifters more power than they have.

And the reason why people view these numbers as bad is because Marvel had a track record. 2 years isn't enough to reset expectations. Hence, Feige spending stupid levels of money to save his job.

 

[blackdragon6]

the GA getting tired of superhero films, the formulaic nature,

It's all just adding up and coming to roost at once.

This is my issue, personally.

 

[Frodo]

The film's performance is what it is .

The reality is ,If someone wants to believe Fantastic Four: First Steps is a horrible flop, that's been rejected by GA's for being "too woke" , there are more than enough Youtube channel's to reinforce that belief .

They can continue to hold that belief, as the team continues to appear future in the MCU films .

At the end of the day, regardless, this team ain't going nowhere and the film was well received .

This film may not have performed the way alot of fandom expected or wanted , but either way, the film hasn't bombed and been rejected so soundly, that Feige is tossing the cast out, and planning on shelving the team " out of shame".

They have major roles in Avengers : Doomsday and Avengers :Secret Wars , and they'll be apart of the MCU after the reset .

The Fantastic Four will be okay, and their place is secured in the MCU.

 

[psylockolussus]

It is about to become the first Fantastic 4 film to cross the $200 million mark, domestically and $400 million globally, now lets celebrate those!

Like I said before, this could have been worse given the results of Brave New World and Thunderbolts* recently - 2 movies imo, shouldn't have happened. Then The Marvels which is still the biggest bomb in Marvel Studios' history which happened not over 2 years ago. Plus the 3 films from Fox which might have lowered the interest for this, for some people who might remember those.

If someone said, years ago, that the 2nd Fantastic 4 reboot would outgross about 14 Mcu films domestically, I would have been ecstatic as I would have been happy just to see another Fantastic 4 film regardless of the numbers. Its going to come close to the $250 million mark, and should at least outgross Doctor Strange 1 ($232 million) in North America. Worldwide, it is a much harder sell which I've already expected before it was released.

 

[lenz]

Still, the drop is disastrous.

So many issues factoring into this and they all can't be solved or dealt with overnight, if ever. Many people have simply moved on from these films (for a variety of reasons) and I don't think they'll ever come back in the numbers they once did. There will still be hits, but the misses will be much more common. From my POV, the shared universe concept on film is outdated at this point.

I'm very happy we got this film, but the big picture is people want originality and authenticity more now. Understandable.

 

[Sithborg]

I would not call it disasterous. Definitely going to be a disappointment. But not catastrophic, necessarily.

They do need to adjust to the reality of the foreign box office, though.

 

[psylockolussus]

A 66% drop to a movie that opened with $118 million isn't disastrous. 66% is just few points higher than what Multiverse of Madness, Love and Thunder and No Way Home got which also opened huge.

The Marvel's low opening weekend then a record breaking second weekend drop of 78.1% is what I would call a disaster.

 

[Galactus123]

So did it really have 80% drop like the articles say? I have seen some say that its not accurate.

 

[blueharvest]

So did it really have 80% drop like the articles say? I have seen some say that its not accurate.

The movie just had a 66% drop, I think.