MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[MagnarTheGreat]

The -80% figure was only for the second Friday being compared to the first Friday, not the whole weekend.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

www.boxofficemojo.com

 

[psylockolussus]

80% would have been a record breaking!

Its 66% and could go lower in the actuals.

40 million (2nd weekend) is still a lot of money for a Fantastic Four reboot.

 

[Flint Marko]

I also thought it was an 80% drop for the whole weekend based off headlines. -66% is still not good and overall a disappointment but not quite the disaster I was led to believe.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

So did it really have 80% drop like the articles say? I have seen some say that its not accurate.

No. It was a d*** move by Variety to run that headline. It set the social media platforms ablaze, but it was purposely misleading. The 80% was only for the first Friday to Friday cume, not the entire weekend (which was 66%). It was like they were foaming at the mouth to get that narrative out there ASAP on Friday. So many films have Friday to Friday cumes in that range, but I don’t recall ever seeing entire articles being written with a misleading headline like that.

There’s a bit of a double standard here too: Superman took a 58% fall and everything is “hopeful” according to that same trade. Fantastic Four falls 8 points more and it has “cratered.” Just a s***ty take IMO.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Still, the drop is disastrous.

So many issues factoring into this and they all can't be solved or dealt with overnight, if ever. Many people have simply moved on from these films (for a variety of reasons) and I don't think they'll ever come back in the numbers they once did. There will still be hits, but the misses will be much more common. From my POV, the shared universe concept on film is outdated at this point.

I'm very happy we got this film, but the big picture is people want originality and authenticity more now. Understandable.

Disappointing? Sure. Disastrous? Nah. There’s been far worse out there.

 

[lenz]

Disappointing? Sure. Disastrous? Nah. There’s been far worse out there.

An MCU film with similar reviews and audience scores in the past would have opened bigger and dropped much less. The franchise has not only lost core fans over the last handful of years, but many casuals who have moved on to other things.

This is the issue. I'm not talking purely about this film, but the genre as a whole. It's still got a bit of nostalgia left in the tank to possibly open and leg-out a big performance here and there, but new and younger audiences they need to fill in the hole that the core audience and casuals that have left is not there.

 

[Flint Marko]

An MCU film with similar reviews and audience scores in the past would have opened bigger and dropped much less. The franchise has not only lost core fans over the last handful of years, but many casuals who have moved on to other things.

This is the issue. I'm not talking purely about this film, but the genre as a whole. It's still got a bit of nostalgia left in the tank to possibly open and leg-out a big performance here and there, but new and younger audiences they need to fill in the hole of the core audience and casuals that have left is not there.

Yeah I think this is inarguably the story here.

While there's definitely some hyperbole about just how "disastrous" this was (I really did think it was an 80% drop because of that Variety article.... what is it with that outlet recently?) the alarms are ringing for the genre as a whole, particularly for the MCU.

I think it's safe to say that Disney+ and a string of very mediocre entries has turned the Marvel brand from pop culture events to "I'll see it if I get around to it".

Many of us have been saying for years they need to slow the output down and focus on quality. It's a shame that 2 of their best recent efforts suffered from this negative buzz.

I'm not exactly optimistic that the next Avengers movie will right the ship but we shall see. I don't envy the brass at Marvel Studios right now.

 

[psylockolussus]

‘Fantastic Four’ fights off ‘The Naked Gun’ to hold UK-Ireland box office lead

'The Bad Guys 2', 'Jurassic World Rebirth' both hold well; 'Superman' tops £24m.

www.screendaily.com

#1 in UK/Ireland for 2 weeks!

 

[lenz]

Yeah I think this is inarguably the story here.

While there's definitely some hyperbole about just how "disastrous" this was (I really did think it was an 80% drop because of that Variety article.... what is it with that outlet recently?) the alarms are ringing for the genre as a whole, particularly for the MCU.

I think it's safe to say that Disney+ and a string of very mediocre entries has turned the Marvel brand from pop culture events to "I'll see it if I get around to it".

Many of us have been saying for years they need to slow the output down and focus on quality. It's a shame that 2 of their best recent efforts suffered from this negative buzz.

I'm not exactly optimistic that the next Avengers movie will right the ship but we shall see. I don't envy the brass at Marvel Studios right now.

I had basically given up on the MCU myself, but was only brought back into the fold because of the Fantastic Four film. It's the comic book series that made me a Marvel fan. Any other new franchise entry would not have drawn me in and actively engaged me.

I'm not optimistic about the next Avengers films either. I can already anticipate the look, feel, joke inserts, etc. It's all been there, done that to me.

 

[Lily Adler]

The film's performance is what it is .

The reality is ,If someone wants to believe Fantastic Four: First Steps is a horrible flop, that's been rejected by GA's for being "too woke" , there are more than enough Youtube channel's to reinforce that belief .

They can continue to hold that belief, as the team continues to appear future in the MCU films .

At the end of the day, regardless, this team ain't going nowhere and the film was well received .

This film may not have performed the way alot of fandom expected or wanted , but either way, the film hasn't bombed and been rejected so soundly, that Feige is tossing the cast out, and planning on shelving the team " out of shame".

They have major roles in Avengers : Doomsday and Avengers :Secret Wars , and they'll be apart of the MCU after the reset .

The Fantastic Four will be okay, and their place is secured in the MCU.

 

[DCDAVE]

I am a bigger DC fan because of Superman and Batman but I grew up in the 70s so I love Spider Man and the Hulk just as much. I loved the Fantastic 4 cartoons and comics too. I even remember the Fantastic 4 cartoon with She Hulk joining the group. Marvel has dominated the movie business for the last 20 years from Spider Man to the infinity Saga and all the way up to the Fox Marvel characters joining Disney. Fantastic 4 is killing the box office of CABNW and Thunderbolts in a movie market year that has only seen 4 movies make over $100 million opening weekend domestically and only one movie has made a billion. Relax guys, stop comparing the new movie market to the hay day of the comic book movie market before covid. Someone made a great point of putting Reid in the forefront of Doomsday and Johnny Storm’s rivalry with Peter Parker in future movies will build the Fantastic 4 up until the sequel. Remember Batman Begins, Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, the Hulk, ect had average box office returns. The MCU is fine. It just came back down to earth after 15 years in another orbit compared to anything else.

 

[Chris B]

My main focus with box office numbers has always been whether or not they're good enough for a sequel to happen.

Unless I'm missing something, that seems to be the case with Fantastic Four. But I do think Feige and co. may need to ensure the second film is more of a crowd pleaser.

 

[MadVillainy]

Right wing outrage has yet to sink a movie or show. Do not give those grifters more power than they have.

And the reason why people view these numbers as bad is because Marvel had a track record. 2 years isn't enough to reset expectations. Hence, Feige spending stupid levels of money to save his job.

Agreed.
I don't really follow this stuff anymore, but I think saying that political reasons or right wing/alt right people are the reasons why the numbers are disappointing is being pretty silly. Some tried to do the same thing with The Marvels not doing well whenever that dropped.
I feel that we used to critique some DCEU people had the same thinking where the only way something could not be doing well is due to some conspiracy. Some version of the horseshoe theory in action I guess

As you said, post 2020 MCU track record isn't great outside of the nostalgia bait (accidental rhyme). Between mediocre product for years, a not great economy, and Disney+ that's probably why the results are disappointing. Which is weird because I thought this would do better but again wasn't paying attention

ANd I see a lot of people cite the reviews, I think a lot of the GA have become news to good reviews for the MCU. A lot of mediocre or MCU movies got good reviews, I think maybe with the MCU people don't care about whether something gets good reviews when it comes to whether they'll see it in theaters.

 

[Frodo]

I am a bigger DC fan because of Superman and Batman but I grew up in the 70s so I love Spider Man and the Hulk just as much. I loved the Fantastic 4 cartoons and comics too. I even remember the Fantastic 4 cartoon with She Hulk joining the group. Marvel has dominated the movie business for the last 20 years from Spider Man to the infinity Saga and all the way up to the Fox Marvel characters joining Disney. Fantastic 4 is killing the box office of CABNW and Thunderbolts in a movie market year that has only seen 4 movies make over $100 million opening weekend domestically and only one movie has made a billion. Relax guys, stop comparing the new movie market to the hay day of the comic book movie market before covid. Someone made a great point of putting Reid in the forefront of Doomsday and Johnny Storm’s rivalry with Peter Parker in future movies will build the Fantastic 4 up until the sequel. Remember Batman Begins, Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, the Hulk, ect had average box office returns. The MCU is fine. It just came back down to earth after 15 years in another orbit compared to anything else.

I agree.

I've always been a fan of both Marvel and DC characters .

Batman, Spiderman, and Superman are my three favorite heroes .

Heck, I'm old enough to remember when Marvel films were basically TV or straight to video movies , many of them being pretty low rent.

I liked Fantastic Four First Steps and Superman , and ironically enough, they've both been declared as " flops" by segments of fandom .

The important thing, is that the film is rating high with general audiences and critics, after years of brand damage .

 

[psylockolussus]

My main focus with box office numbers has always been whether or not they're good enough for a sequel to happen.

Unless I'm missing something, that seems to be the case with Fantastic Four. But I do think Feige and co. may need to ensure the second film is more of a crowd pleaser.

First Steps got a A- Cinemascore.

The sequel if its released in 2028, should get an Avengers boost, similar to non-Avengers sequels (Captain America, Thor, Dr. Strange).

 

[kguillou]

What can happen guys is the F4 can get a popularity boost from Doomsday and SW. Again, think First Avenger. That movie had a very soft landing with the GA and the box office. Then Avengers happened and people started to love Cap coming out of that movie and then Winter Solider took it from there.

These characters could get new life depending on how they're written and utilized in these Avengers flicks and that could fuel excitement for their next solo movie coming out of them.

 

[DarkKnight88]

What can happen guys is the F4 can get a popularity boost from Doomsday and SW. Again, think First Avenger. That movie had a very soft landing with the GA and the box office. Then Avengers happened and people started to love Cap coming out of that movie and then Winter Solider took it from there.

These characters could get new life depending on how they're written and utilized in these Avengers flicks and that could fuel excitement for their next solo movie coming out of them.

176M domestically in 2011 was not a soft landing. Think back to that time. That was bigger than a lot of firsts at the time; X-Men, Fantastic Four, Hulk etc.

Thor and Captain America proved that summer that Marvel wasn’t a fluke. Sure they weren’t on the level of Iron Man breaking out, but they weren’t expected to be. The fear was that it would go the way of The Incredible Hulk which was a much more mainstream name.

I think people put contemporary numbers to judge back then but forget that those were very good box office starts at the time.

 

[psylockolussus]

Top 10 - 2025 (so far)
1. Minecraft
2. Lilo & Stitch
3. Jurassic World
4. Superman
5. Sinners
6. How to Train Your Dragon
7. Captain America
8. Fantastic 4
9. Mission: Impossible
10. Thunderbolts*

Worldwide 2025
1. Ne Zha
2. Lilo & Stitch
3. Minecraft
4. Jurassic World
5. How to Train Your Dragon
6. Mission: Impossible
7. Superman
8. F1
9. Captain America
10. Thunderbolts*
11. Fantastic 4

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Imo, This movie breaking even or even a small profit is a big win

Spider-Man will be the true "superhero fatigue" test imo.

If that does these numbers then id start to worry about doomsday

 

[GreenKToo]

Disney oversaturated the market with too many disney+ series and films.
And WB didnt help matters by making mediocre films.

Imo, No more than two CB films per year per studio should be released to build anticipation,
( any more than that and the public gets bored )
and way WAY fewer series.

I know everyone's tastes are different, and that's cool, but the only three disney+ series I liked were moonknight, loki, and daredevil.
I didn't care for the rest.

Disney has just about killed their own market by being greedy and throwing out films left and right, and I don't know if it will ever get back to what it once was.

The good news is both Superman and F4 are great films, and both would have made 750 mill+ 7 to 10 years ago, but both are now falling victim to CB film fatigue ( and the failures both films predecessors had ) unfortunately.

The time of being rivals is over. We all face the possibility of the studios canceling projects or delaying them because their films arent hitting record numbers.

 

[psylockolussus]

Imo, This movie breaking even or even a small profit is a big win

Spider-Man will be the true "superhero fatigue" test imo.

If that does these numbers then id start to worry about doomsday

Disney oversaturated the market with too many disney+ series and films.
And WB didnt help matters by making mediocre films.

Imo, No more than two CB films per year per studio should be released to build anticipation,
( any more than that and the public gets bored )
and way WAY fewer series.

I know everyone's tastes are different, and that's cool, but the only three disney+ series I liked were moonknight, loki, and daredevil.
I didn't care for the rest.

Disney has just about killed their own market by being greedy and throwing out films left and right, and I don't know if it will ever get back to what it once was.

The good news is both Superman and F4 are great films, and both would have made 750 mill+ 7 to 10 years ago, but both are now falling victim to CB film fatigue ( and the failures both films predecessors had ) unfortunately.

The time of being rivals is over. We all face the possibility of the studios canceling projects or delaying them because their films arent hitting record numbers.

At one point, they had Blade for Q4 of 2025!

Starting in 2026, it should be two movies maximum and no more movies like Thunderbolts and legacy movies like Brave New World. They are better off doing something else than those two (and a bunch of Disney+ shows we've seen since 2021).

 

[DCDAVE]

I agree.

I've always been a fan of both Marvel and DC characters .

Batman, Spiderman, and Superman are my three favorite heroes .

Heck, I'm old enough to remember when Marvel films were basically TV or straight to video movies , many of them being pretty low rent.

I liked Fantastic Four First Steps and Superman , and ironically enough, they've both been declared as " flops" by segments of fandom .

The important thing, is that the film is rating high with general audiences and critics, after years of brand damage .

Everything is a flop in the comic book community when Aquaman and Captain Marvel makes a billion dollars at the box office. Neither of those movies are even in the same stratosphere as Superman and Fantastic Four in terms of overall quality. In all due respect to James Wan. I see on Social Media that Man of Steel would have made almost a billion if you consider inflation. Although social media leaves out how much its budget would be with inflation. If you take away the nostalgia of Spider-Man No Way Home and Deadpool/Wolverine all the other comic book movies released since covid brings in less then $400 million worldwide at the box office. It is a new day at the box office and Fantastic Four over performed.

 

[lenz]

I am a bigger DC fan because of Superman and Batman but I grew up in the 70s so I love Spider Man and the Hulk just as much. I loved the Fantastic 4 cartoons and comics too. I even remember the Fantastic 4 cartoon with She Hulk joining the group. Marvel has dominated the movie business for the last 20 years from Spider Man to the infinity Saga and all the way up to the Fox Marvel characters joining Disney. Fantastic 4 is killing the box office of CABNW and Thunderbolts in a movie market year that has only seen 4 movies make over $100 million opening weekend domestically and only one movie has made a billion. Relax guys, stop comparing the new movie market to the hay day of the comic book movie market before covid. Someone made a great point of putting Reid in the forefront of Doomsday and Johnny Storm’s rivalry with Peter Parker in future movies will build the Fantastic 4 up until the sequel. Remember Batman Begins, Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, the Hulk, ect had average box office returns. The MCU is fine. It just came back down to earth after 15 years in another orbit compared to anything else.

They need to change the way they make films going forward. Focus more on street level films in general and start approaching filmmaking like you are doing an 80's action film. If you can make a John Wick film for 100m or less today you can do the same with the street level/supernatural corner of the Marvel universe and have it feel epic.

 

[lenz]

At one point, they had Blade for Q4 of 2025!

Starting in 2026, it should be two movies maximum and no more movies like Thunderbolts and legacy movies like Brave New World. They are better off doing something else than those two (and a bunch of Disney+ shows we've seen since 2021).

How about we get a new CCO at Marvel Studios and not somebody already in-house. That may raise an eyebrow or two in the fandom for signaling a real sea change at the studio.

 

[Spider-Fan]

They need to change the way they make films going forward. Focus more on street level films in general and start approaching filmmaking like you are doing an 80's action film. If you can make a John Wick film for 100m or less today you can do the same with the street level/supernatural corner of the Marvel universe and have it feel epic.

The thing is inflation works for production costs, also. What was a 150 mil movie in 2011 is now over 200 mil now. What they need to figure out is how to get the spectacle at a lower cost.