MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[psylockolussus]

Marvel Studios reaching out to the team behind The Creator's vfx could help.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

38.6m actual 2nd weekend. Yeah, no way to spin that. It's bad.

 

[DCDAVE]

They need to change the way they make films going forward. Focus more on street level films in general and start approaching filmmaking like you are doing an 80's action film. If you can make a John Wick film for 100m or less today you can do the same with the street level/supernatural corner of the Marvel universe and have it feel epic.

Street level Fantastic 4 movie? Good luck with that. Marvel has the Punisher and Spider-Man together so we will see how that works but then again the Hulk is in the movie and he is far from street level.

 

[lenz]

The thing is inflation works for production costs, also. What was a 150 mil movie in 2011 is now over 200 mil now. What they need to figure out is how to get the spectacle in doing more with at a lower cost.

I agree. The key is to hire filmmakers with experience in doing more with less. That would be a good starting point. The catch would be stepping back from the usual way filmmakers are dealt with at the studio and give them way more autonomy in their work. Is the current CCO and his worker bees willing to do that? As of now they can't get a Blade film off the ground. If they did it would probably cost close to 200m.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

 

[DCDAVE]

38.6m actual 2nd weekend. Yeah, no way to spin that. It's bad.

This week’s box office was the best top 10 I have seen in years. Two good Superhero movies, a nostalgia comedy, a dinosaur action/horror movie, a racing sports movie with Brad Pitt, two horror/slasher movies, and a couple of kids movies. We have lots choose from nowadays. Summer slam (wrestling) was on all weekend plus the streaming shows/movies. Just way to much competition. Fantastic 4 had no chance.

 

[lenz]

Street level Fantastic 4 movie? Good luck with that. Marvel has the Punisher and Spider-Man together so we will see how that works but then again the Hulk is in the movie and he is far from street level.

I said in general going forward. So less 200 m+ CGI spectacle films and more the grounded old-school, character-driven filmmaking approach. Or to parrot the cinephiles, "real filmmaking".

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This week’s box office was the best top 10 I have seen in years. Two good Superhero movies, a nostalgia comedy, a dinosaur action/horror movie, a racing sports movie with Brad Pitt, two horror/slasher movies, and a couple of kids movies. We have lots choose from nowadays. Summer slam (wrestling) was on all weekend plus the streaming shows/movies. Just way to much competition. Fantastic 4 had no chance.

F4's issue isn't competition. It's that the GA aren't that interested by it.

 

[DCDAVE]

I said in general going forward. So less 200 m+ CGI spectacle films and more the grounded old-school, character driven filmmaking approach. Or to parrot the cinephiles, "real filmmaking".

I got you but Daredevil under Disney doesn’t hit it like it did on Netflix. I just can’t put my finger on to why. I was not a fan of Daredevil Born Again. To me Netflix Daredevil and The Penguin was the two best live action shows I have seen.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I said in general going forward. So less 200 m+ CGI spectacle films and more the grounded old-school, character-driven filmmaking approach. Or to parrot the cinephiles, "real filmmaking".

I think people need to understand that a big issue with Marvel isn't the CGI spectacle. It's how they use their budget in general. When you don't know what the movie is going to be, before filming, or even after, you run up the cost changing it.

 

[lenz]

I got you but Daredevil under Disney doesn’t hit it like it did on Netflix. I just can’t put my finger on to why. I was not a fan of Daredevil Born Again. To me Netflix Daredevil and The Penguin was the two best live action shows I have seen.

It's because that type of project isn't in their DNA and hasn't been since the studios inception under Kevin Feige. It's outside their comfort zone. They are in the four-quadrant film business.

 

[lenz]

I think people need to understand that a big issue with Marvel isn't the CGI spectacle. It's how they use their budget in general. When you don't know what the movie is going to be, before filming, or even after, you run up the cost changing it.

It's definitely a major part of it and has increasingly become an issue as the universe has gotten bigger and bigger over the the years.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

People are buying less tickets than pre-pandemic and MCU movies are burning out faster on average than they used to. There also might be a bigger interest gap between hardcore MCU showing up for openings but the general audience less interested which reveals itself more in the following weekends and weeks - they can wait for Disney+ if they even care enough to bother with it. And special attractions like Tobey Maguire and Hugh Jackman interest them more than the actual movie those actors are attached to.



Day 10 multipliers for 2025 releases | final multipliers
CA:BNW 1.59 | 2.26
T* 1.72 | 2.56
FF:FS 1.69 | TBD

https://www.the-numbers.com/market/

 

[DarthSkywalker]

F4 looking to have similar legs to 2016's Suicide Squad. Yeah, people don't like it.

 

[Frodo]

Street level Fantastic 4 movie? Good luck with that. Marvel has the Punisher and Spider-Man together so we will see how that works but then again the Hulk is in the movie and he is far from street level.

Ultimately , Feige and Marvel are going to have to make each of these solo films , event viewing, as opposed to some films basically filler or transitional stories, much like the TV model of a season.

When the X Men reboot happens, the film has to be a story with big stakes and consequences, as opposed to a small scale story which general audiences can skip, or dismiss all together.

It doesn't have to be world ending, but certainly, something like X1 , X2, or X Men First Class, has to be the level of threat in the story , for example.

Each of these characters individual stories and journeys have to warrant a big screen adventure, as opposed to solo films which are basically filler , meant to transition or set up an event several years down the line.

The rub is achieving spectacle, without the film costing 250 million .

But that's my opinion .

 

[DCDAVE]

Ultimately , Feige and Marvel are going to have to make each of these solo films , event viewing, as opposed to some films basically filler or transitional stories, much like the TV model of a season.

When the X Men reboot happens, the film has to be a story with big stakes and consequences, as opposed to a small scale story which general audiences can skip, or dismiss all together.

It doesn't have to be world ending, but certainly, something like X1 , X2, or X Men First Class, has to be the level of threat in the story , for example.

Each of these characters individual stories and journeys have to warrant a big screen adventure, as opposed to solo films which are basically filler , meant to transition or set up an event several years down the line.

The rub is achieving spectacle, without the film costing 250 million .

But that's my opinion .

X-Men’s best stories our the dark tragic storylines. I just don’t know if Disney would allow those stories to play out like Fox did. X-2, X-Men First class, Days of Futures past, and Logan are great comic book movies. I just can’t see Disney being ok with these characters/storylines leading their MCU.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The Disney+ Curse: How the Streaming Service Hurt Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar Brands

Disney+ has dinged all of the company's core brands, doing real harm to Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar brands.

www.thewrap.com

It does move money they would be getting from their theatrical business into streaming subscriptions so it's not a complete disappearance. But how much value/profit they believe they are getting from one versus the other is a discussion I'm sure they have all the time.

 

[lenz]

X-Men’s best stories our the dark tragic storylines. I just don’t know if Disney would allow those stories to play out like Fox did. X-2, X-Men First class, Days of Futures past, and Logan are great comic book movies. I just can’t see Disney being ok with these characters/storylines leading their MCU.

Change is the price of survival.

I don't see it as an absolute proposition. There was a time when people said Disney + would never have mature/R-rated content, but we've since seen them fold Hulu/FX content onto the app. At the end of the day money talks for these corporations. Marvel Studios had their first R-rated film last year, and although Born Again did not reach the heights of the Netflix series, it was still the most "mature" project they did for D+. Mature in terms of violence/interactions geared towards an older demo obviously.

Also, if you look at Disney prior to Bob Iger, it was much different under the stewardship of Michael Eisner than it has been for "IP Bob" when it came to the content being produced by the company under different labels.

 

[Boom]

After seeing the financial performances of the three MCU movies this year, I expect they'll be backing up the Brinks trucks for Jackman, Maguire and Garfield. Only a matter of time before they're announced for DD and SW.

First Steps wasn't perfect, but it's one of the better movies Marvel has put out in the last 5 years. It's a pity it hasn't found an audience stateside after opening week.

 

[blackdragon6]

After seeing the financial performances of the three MCU movies this year, I expect they'll be backing up the Brinks trucks for Jackman, Maguire and Garfield. Only a matter of time before they're announced for DD and SW.

That's not a permanent solution tho.

 

[blackdragon6]

Change is the price of survival.

I don't see it as an absolute proposition. There was a time when people said Disney + would never have mature/R-rated content, but we've since seen them fold Hulu/FX content onto the app. At the end of the day money talks for these corporations. Marvel Studios had their first R-rated film last year, and although Born Again did not reach the heights of the Netflix series, it was still the most "mature" project they did for D+. Mature in terms of violence/interactions geared towards an older demo obviously.

Also, if you look at Disney prior to Bob Iger, it was much different under the stewardship of Michael Eisner than it has been for "IP Bob" when it came to the content being produced by the company under different labels.

I've said this ages ago, they're going to have to go outside they're comfort zone. They need to ditch the safe cookie cutter one size fits all formula. The only reason that Born Again didn't work quite as well as the Netflix version is because they tried to use that same aforementioned cookie cutter formula, then they scraped it to start over to match the original show. And I suspect that this is the real reason Blade is held up, Feige is trying to shoehorn in unnecessary MCU **** cause he doesn't want to make a straightforward action/horror film.

 

[Boom]

That's not a permanent solution tho.

Correct. Which is why Feige has been such a disappointment lately. Instead of being patient and letting the plan be the plan (like he was throughout the Infinity Saga), he's reacting and over-correcting.

 

[lenz]

I've said this ages ago, they're going to have to go outside they're comfort zone. They need to ditch the safe cookie cutter one size fits all formula. The only reason that Born Again didn't work quite as well as the Netflix version is because they tried to use that same aforementioned cookie cutter formula, then they scraped it to start over to match the original show. And I suspect that this is the real reason Blade is held up, Feige is trying to shoehorn in unnecessary MCU **** cause he doesn't want to make a straightforward action/horror film.

Agreed.

The fact they even attempted something different from the Netflix series with the same cast is proof enough to me that Feige was more interested in serving his own agenda rather than the fans. He assumed Loeb's position as head of Marvel Television, so hiring on the same creatives (pick a season) would be an acknowledgement of the guy he replaced.

Ultimately Loeb was hit-and-miss as head of Marvel Television, but credit should be given where it's due on Daredevil.

In retrospect, has Feige fared any better in that department? Say what you will, but he's never had highs like Daredevil or Season 1 of Jessica Jones.

 

[Sithborg]

38.6m actual 2nd weekend. Yeah, no way to spin that. It's bad.

Yeah, $500 millions not dead, but, ooof, its going to struggle. And they loose the premium screens to Weapons.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, $500 millions not dead, but, ooof, its going to struggle. And they loose the premium screens to Weapons.

It'll make 500m. 280-290 domestica. 240-260m OS.