MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Nightshift]

What?

Just forget it lol.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

it's not going OVER 500.

Over 500m would be, 500,000,001. In a game of over/under. If you set the # at 500m. 500m and one dollar, would break it.

 

[Nightshift]

Over 500m would be, 500,000,001. In a game of over/under. If you set the over at 500m. 500m and one dollar, would break it.

Alrighty, but I'm saying it's not going over 500 meaning max is 500.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Alrighty, but I'm saying it's not going over 500 meaning max is 500.

And you understand that if it makes 505m, that would eclipse a max of 500m?

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Can I just go off topic here for a minute and say how crazy (and cool) that some of us have been talking to each other about this very topic over a span of 20 effing years? Many of us landed here on SuperheroHype! around 2003, 2004, etc., when the very first film iterations of Spider-Man, the X-Men, and yes, The Fantastic Four, were coming out. They were just becoming “Mainstream” at that point. We thought we’d seen it all then. Fast forward over 20 years later, and our asses are still here talking about this stuff—but now we’ve evolved from Thing brows, PWNage, and Jessica Alba’s blue eye contacts, to literally about how many billions of dollars these IPs may or may not make next year. LMAO Sigh.

That’s insane when you think about it. What a world. Power of the Hype.

 

[Nightshift]

And you understand that if it makes 505m, that would eclipse a max of 500m?

Do you? Then that works for me.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Can I just go off topic here for a minute and say how crazy (and cool) that some of us have been talking to each other about this very topic over a span of 20 effing years? Many of us landed here on SuperheroHype! around 2003, 2004, etc., when the very first film iterations of Spider-Man, the X-Men, and yes, The Fantastic Four, were coming out. They were just becoming “Mainstream” at that point. We thought we’d seen it all then. Fast forward over 20 years later, and some of us are still talking about this stuff—but now about how many billions of dollars these IPs may or may not make next year. LMAO Sigh.

That’s insane when you think about it. What a world. Power of the Hype.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

You and me both. We’ve been literally talking/debating here the longest.

 

[psylockolussus]

208,039,206, already outgrossed The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Thor: The Dark World

378,323,565, already outgrossed X-Men Origins: Wolverine worldwide.

 

[psylockolussus]

Now in its third weekend of release, “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” is aiming for $18 million to $20 million. That’s as long as the film holds similarly to Marvel peers “Captain America: Brave New World” and “Thor: Love and Thunder,” each of which dropped by 50% in their third outings. So far, “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” has generated $200 million domestically and $370 million worldwide. It’ll soon outpace “Thunderbolts” ($382 million globally) and “Captain America: Brave New World” ($415 million globally) to become Marvel Studios’ biggest 2025 release, but this theatrical result isn’t exactly shaping up to be the studio’s much-needed box office return to glory.

Box Office: ‘Freakier Friday’ and ‘Weapons’ Battle for First Place Over ‘Fantastic Four’

It could be a close race for first place at the box office as "Freakier Friday" and "Weapons" target similar debuts.

variety.com

 

[Galactus123]

I’m confident this genre still has quite a few more billion dollar makers in it. I’m willing to bet The X-Men will completely change and reinvigorate this narrative.

I hope it does but them bringing back all the old actors now will make it harder for audiences to accept the new castings after Secret Wars. Also it might not feel fresh.

 

[psylockolussus]

A X-Men film would have grossed over $1 billion a decade ago if it was under Marvel Studios.

Fox's visuals/presentation for the X-Men weren't flashy and grabbing enough for the general public. They spent most of their time doing prequels (First Class, Apocalypse, Dark Phoenix), Wolverine solos and spin-offs (New Mutants/Gambit), which were never going to attract the same interest as a full blown X-Men film, that could have been as huge as Avengers.

Deadpool outgrossing the X-Men films was a clear sign that FoX-Men just didn't resonate enough with the general public. Transformers sucked but the general public ate them up during the first three films because they nailed the visuals. Even with DOFP, they were pushing for the prequel actors which long term, wasn't successful, predictably so.

I don't think the OT cast appearing in Secret Wars/Doomsday would hurt the reboot, as long as they nail the visuals/marketing. No Wolverine though might lessen the interest of the general public. I still think Marvel Studios should have made another X-Men film with the OT cast before their debut in the Avengers. Similar to how Ryan Reynolds/Hugh Jackman were given a chance to headline another Marvel film last year. Nighcrawler, Magneto, Cyclops and Mystique are the only ones appearing in Doomsday without an appearance from a previous MCU movie/show. And we haven't seen those actors in the same role since 2003/2014/2006.

A MCU X-Men movie could hit a billion, but its not going to be with their first X-Men film. Maybe with X-Men 2 or 3.

 

[Sithborg]

Explain to me how with the current box office conditions. The reality is, things have changed. And I think BND and Doomsday will show that.

 

[psylockolussus]

So Lilo & Stitch can gross over $1 billion and X-Men can't through multiple films? Deadpool & Wolverine's $1.3 billion was just last year.

Also, price inflation will boost numbers especially in 2030s, when multiple X-Men are finally released, again.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So Lilo & Stitch can gross over $1 billion and X-Men can't through multiple films? Deadpool & Wolverine's $1.3 billion was just last year.

Also, price inflation will boost numbers especially in 2030s, when multiple X-Men are finally released, again.

Lilo and Stitch is one of the hottest IPs in the world. Look at it's streaming numbers. And it's for kids. Look at how Minecraft went. Does X-Men have a strong kids demo?

 

[Spider-Fan]

Lilo and Stitch is one of the hottest IPs in the world. Look at it's streaming numbers. And it's for kids. Look at how Minecraft went. Does X-Men have a strong kids demo?

Domestically, I think they do. What I wonder is if the X-Men are perceived as too American coded for international markets. The themes of prejudice and such are universal, but I do think the IP is perceived as being grounded specifically in American Civil Rights issues in markets outside the US. Deadpool and Wolverine was able to cut through that, but will a more proper X-Men film that leans into these issues? I think that's potentially a bigger threat to it now than a few years ago cause America's reputation is at an all-time low

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Domestically, I think they do. What I wonder is if the X-Men are perceived as too American coded for international markets. The themes of prejudice and such are universal, but I do think the IP is perceived as being grounded specifically in American Civil Rights issues in markets outside the US. Deadpool and Wolverine was able to cut through that, but will a more proper X-Men film that leans into these issues? I think that's potentially a bigger threat to it now than a few years ago cause America's reputation is at an all-time low

Based on? The thing about all the X-Men movies outside of Deadpool and Logan, is they are incredibly front loaded domestically. Which means they skew towards fans, which are older. The highest grossing domestic team movie is DoFP, which did 233m. Their growth came overseas, which has diminished.

 

[MarvelFan]

Speaking as an overseas audience outside US, I personally do not really think much of the political or too American when watching any Superhero movies or other movies in general. As long as the story and craft are good, I certainly will watch it over and over again. (This year, there are 3 movies that I ranked 10/10, and one of those is Sinners). That, and I also loved Spielberg's Lincoln

And I will be very careful since I will speak about politics a little, but imo, the thing that I think will potentially hurt the X-Men the most (if they'd really making the X-Men more political) is the controversy inside the US itself,not the overseas. If I am not mistaken, Superman, with mild political allegory has had quite making splash before the release, now imagine the uproar (among the right conservatives) with the X-Men?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Speaking as an overseas audience outside US, I personally do not really think much of the political or too American when watching any Superhero movies or other movies in general. As long as the story and craft are good, I certainly will watch it over and over again. (This year, there are 3 movies that I ranked 10/10, and one of those is Sinners).

And I will be very careful since I will speak about politics a little, but imo, the thing that I think will potentially hurt the X-Men the most (if they'd really making the X-Men more political) is the controversy inside the US itself,not the overseas. If I am not mistaken, Superman, with mild political allegory has had quite making splash before the release, now imagine the uproar (among the right conservatives) with the X-Men?

Honestly, that probably helped Superman. Which is crazy, because it's stripped of all real meaning through how parody it is.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Based on? The thing about all the X-Men movies outside of Deadpool and Logan, is they are incredibly front loaded domestically. Which means they skew towards fans, which are older. The highest grossing domestic team movie is DoFP, which did 233m. Their growth came overseas, which has diminished.

D&W did 700 mil international. That's a very good number

 

[DarthSkywalker]

D&W did 700 mil international. That's a very good number

Yes. We are talking about a new set of X-Men without the nostalgia (no one expects BND to do NWH numbers). How does this mean the X-Men have a strong pull with kids domestically?

Look at the numbers for 97. For all the talk, it did very little viewership on streaming.

 

[psylockolussus]

Domestic top 10 - 2025
1. Minecraft
2. Lilo & Stitch
3. Superman
4. Jurassic World
5. Sinners
6. How to Train Your Dragon
7. Fantastic 4
8. Captain America
9. Mission: Impossible
10. Thunderbolts

I'm not confident Fantastic 4 would outgross Dragon's 260 million (and counting). It is likely going to drop to #9 when Zootopia and Wicked are released.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Yes. We are talking about a new set of X-Men without the nostalgia (no one expects BND to do NWH numbers). How does this mean the X-Men have a strong pull with kids domestically?

Look at the numbers for 97. For all the talk, it did very little viewership on streaming.

97 was a show marketed for adults though. So I don't think that's a good basis for what the MCU X-Men are going to do domestically.

I feel like all these discussions are sort of the same right now. So, my part in the gloom and doom thing we got going on here is done. The X-Men are going to make what the X-Men make when they do it and time will ultimately tell. Same for all the MCU stuff coming down the pike. All the doom scrolling and such is just....not fun for me to discuss. So, yall have it it

 

[blackdragon6]

Unpopular opinion but, I think Marvel's biggest issue is forcibly trying to tie in everything together. I mean we already know it's a shared universe. You don't have to beat us over the head with it. The films and shows should stand on their own first and foremost. Crossovers are fun and fine, but it shouldn't be forced. It also cuts back on "homework".

THIS!!!

look, i like the shared universe. But i don't think everything should tie into the Avengers, and vice versa. They've turned a cool concept into a gimmick. Films needs to stand on their own—and not just be glorified set ups to other films/shows in the MCU.

 

[blackdragon6]

97 was a show marketed for adults though. So I don't think that's a good basis for what the MCU X-Men are going to do domestically.

I feel like all these discussions are sort of the same right now. So, my part in the gloom and doom thing we got going on here is done. The X-Men are going to make what the X-Men make when they do it and time will ultimately tell. Same for all the MCU stuff coming down the pike. All the doom scrolling and such is just....not fun for me to discuss. So, yall have it it

I do think X-MEN should use 97 as a tone template on what to do with the live action films. For all of it's faults I felt Fox at least got the tone right.