MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Spider-Fan]

There is also an entire cottage industry of social media commentators whose sole purpose is to bring these films down. That doesn't just divide fandom with narratives, but exacerbates the already growing fatigue among fans and casuals. Part of the fun with these films in the past was the online communities that generated excitement for the next entry.

And the internet is a giant hellscape now

 

[Frodo]

It will be interesting to see how this film will be viewed several years after This iteration of F4 have been apart of the MCU , and after they've been in several films .

Ultimately, I think time will be kind to the film among future Marvel film fandom .

At The moment , the film is being viewed in through the lenses of current fandom and corporate expectations, different agendas pro and con, in relation to Superman's box office , Superhero fatigue, Marvel vs DC, etc.

I haven't seen a whole lot of commentary that the film is bad or awful , which one would expect given the derision and negativity surrounding the film in fandom .

I think the actual film will be thought better of by future fans ,who are removed from the ones who are currently debating the film's box office performance.

I also feel the film is gonna be an entry point to these characters for alot of children .

Of course, I can't see into the future , and alot will depend on how Marvel films are going forward .

But, if this first film can get a new generation of kids interested in the characters, so that they'll want more adaptations in the years going forward, that will be a good thing.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I’m a huge FF fan.

I loved this movie.

… but I only saw it once in the theater.

Why? Because I know I’ll be able to buy it in a few months and be able to watch it as often as I’d like on a 4K, 75 inch screen with sound from Bowers and Wilkins speakers.

Things are changing and box-office numbers aren’t what they used to be.

But Disney will also probably pocket nearly all of the $30 I spend on it. They won’t have to split it with a theater and will almost certainly get more from my purchase than they would have if I went back to the theater a few times.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I have watched FF 3 times personally. I'd watch it again if I get the opportunity, but my guess is that I won't.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I’m a huge FF fan.

I loved this movie.

… but I only saw it once in the theater.

Why? Because I know I’ll be able to buy it in a few months and be able to watch it as often as I’d like on a 4K, 75 inch screen with sound from Bowers and Wilkins speakers.

Things are changing and box-office numbers aren’t what they used to be.

But Disney will also probably pocket nearly all of the $30 I spend on it. They won’t have to split it with a theater and will almost certainly get more from my purchase than they would have if I went back to the theater a few times.

And this underscores my point. Willie is literally one of the biggest FF fans on this board (and he, along with myself and some others are among the eldest comic readers since the FF’s 1960, 70s and 80s eras). If he’s seen the film only once in theaters as a longtime fan—versus someone like me who has seen it a few times—is there any wonder to the change in dynamics with cinema? We represent two different types of moviegoers that are contributing to First Steps’ box office tally. He loved the film and saw it once. I saw it 4 times. We both are waiting for Disney+. How many more people are out there like us?

That’s why I refuse to pin the box office receipts on the quality of this film. People love it. I believe it’s a wide combination of external factors (franchise perceptions, social media, box office competition, Disney+, the summer school calendar etc.) that are weighing in here.

There’s nothing wrong with First Steps as a movie.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Let us also not forget, the economy is trash. I have never been more poor in my life. If not for the A List and Cinemark points the wife and I have saved over time, I wouldn't have been able to afford seeing FF 3 times

 

[Frodo]

And this underscores my point. Willie is literally one of the biggest FF fans on this board (and he, along with myself and some others are among the eldest comic readers since the FF’s 1960, 70s and 80s eras). If he’s seen the film only once in theaters as a longtime fan—versus someone like me who has seen it a few times—is there any wonder to the change in dynamics with cinema? We represent two different types of moviegoers that are contributing to First Steps’ box office tally. He loved the film and saw it once. I saw it 4 times. We both are waiting for Disney+. How many more people are out there like us?

That’s why I refuse to pin the box office receipts on the quality of this film. People love it. I believe it’s a wide combination of external factors (franchise perceptions, social media, box office competition, Disney+, the summer school calendar etc.) that are weighing in here.

There’s nothing wrong with First Steps as a movie.

That's the reason why I think time is ultimately going to be kind to Fantastic Four : First Steps among future fans .

As much as there is doom and gloom and negativity surrounding the film, it's hard to argue that the film is bad , and that audiences didn't like it .

If anything, I could see future MCU fans looking at the response to the film, and not getting why there was so much negativity around it.

They'll be remove from today's discourse of " what should have been ", and will judge the film on it's own terms.

 

[psylockolussus]

The movie got a A- Cinemascore and a 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. That is far from what Suicide Squad 2016 received.

Also, the good thing is they would immediately return for Avengers: Doomsday. So its not like they appeared in this movie and only returning after 4 to 5 years with half of the original team missing (Suicide Squad 2021).

 

[mace1]

@DiscussingFilm
‘THE FANTASTIC FOUR’ has passed $430M worldwide.
Now eyeing to end its box office run at $490M-$510M

Marvel Cinematic Universe Part II

and leak was true. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-brand-new-day-mark-ruffalo-1236232140/

community.cbr.com

 

[Spider-Fan]

I feel like unless the drops get too steep and it has no chance, Marvel/Disney are just going to let it run until it hits the 500 mark at minimum

 

[OrbOfConfusion]

I think this film is alot like Captain America TFA, being a period piece with a similar vibe that came out immediately prior to a big crossover...though in TFA's case we'd never gotten an Avengers crossover before, while with First Steps it's been so long since the last Avengers film (and more importantly, we've had so much content since then) that people have reverted to pre-Avengers interest levels. So, pretty comparable.

Cap 1 made 370 million. Then after Avengers and a drastic change in tone and setting, Cap 2 made 714 million. Then after Avengers 2 and with a bunch of crossovers, Cap 3 made over a billion.

Cap didn't just spawn into the world with a billion dollar film, the MCU had to earn it by building up the universe around him properly.

It helps that Cap 3 is really just an Avengers movie in everything but name- not to mention introducing the likes of Black Panther and Spider-Man into the universe. The odds were always going to be in its favor.

 

[Flint Marko]

I’m a huge FF fan.

I loved this movie.

… but I only saw it once in the theater.

Why? Because I know I’ll be able to buy it in a few months and be able to watch it as often as I’d like on a 4K, 75 inch screen with sound from Bowers and Wilkins speakers.

Things are changing and box-office numbers aren’t what they used to be.

But Disney will also probably pocket nearly all of the $30 I spend on it. They won’t have to split it with a theater and will almost certainly get more from my purchase than they would have if I went back to the theater a few times.

You and me both. A lot of that comes down to life not allowing me any time to go to the theater much, and as you mentioned, I can catch it from the comfort of home for free if I'm just a little patient.

A night at the movies for us costs $100+ when you factor in a babysitter and that's before food and drinks. A movie like Weapons or Sinners that is generating insane buzz could probably make me take a second look but otherwise I can wait.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Just cause of life circumstances, I go to the movies by myself probably....95% of the time anymore. Either myself or the wife has to stay home with the kids if one of us wants to go to a movie. We both pay for A List and the wife has the Cinemark Movie Club, so we both can use that and then we just have to have money for popcorn and a drink. The A List is an expense we can't really live without cause we need some for of destresser

 

[Lily Adler]

@DiscussingFilm
‘THE FANTASTIC FOUR’ has passed $430M worldwide.
Now eyeing to end its box office run at $490M-$510M

Marvel Cinematic Universe Part II

and leak was true. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-brand-new-day-mark-ruffalo-1236232140/

community.cbr.com

Will it beat the GOAT?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Weekend actual 15.78

OS came in a touch higher as well, 204.6 total now.

435.3 WW

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Weekend actual 15.78

OS came in a touch higher as well, 204.6 total now.

435.3 WW

I remain hopeful that it can cross low to mid $500M. I don’t think my revised vote above for $600M is realistic at this point but…the next few weeks should stabilize a bit.

 

[psylockolussus]

Third weekend (MCU North America)
$66,306,935 Black Panther
$63,299,904 Endgame
$62,078,047 Infinity War
$56,023,590 No Way Home
$55,644,102 Avengers
$53,774,969 Deadpool & Wolverine
$45,583,904 Wakanda Forever
$38,859,900 Age of Ultron
$35,770,094 Iron Man 3
$34,653,754 Vol. 2
$34,271,793 Captain Marvel
$32,939,739 Civil War
$32,407,756 Volume 3
$32,304,560 Multiverse of Madness
$31,838,996 Iron Man
$26,361,258 Iron Man 2
$25,587,056 Winter Soldier
$25,115,564 Guardians
$22,559,278 Love and Thunder
$22,150,085 Homecoming
$21,670,751 Legend of the Ten Rings
$21,669,600 Ragnarok
$21,202,431 Far from Home
$17,761,060 Doctor Strange
$16,646,774 Thunderbolts
$16,507,156 Ant-Man and the Wasp
$15,784,767 First Steps
$15,455,304 Thor
$14,850,888 Brave New World
$14,196,302 Dark World
$13,021,922 First Avenger
$12,810,042 Quantumania
$12,802,644 Ant-Man
$11,618,898 Black Widow
$11,084,855 Eternals
$9,577,245 Incredible Hulk
$6,325,243 Marvels

Third weekend drop (MCU North America)
62.0% Ragnarok
61.2% Dark World
59.9% Quantumania
59.2% First Steps
58.7% Eternals
58.7% Doctor Strange
57.1% Endgame
56.7% Incredible Hulk
55.5% Thor
55.0% Black Widow
54.7% Civil War
53.3% Far from Home
51.6% Love and Thunder
50.7% Iron Man 3
50.0% Age of Ultron
49.9% Homecoming
49.6% Captain Marvel
49.3% Iron Man 2
49.0% First Avenger
48.6% Ant-Man
48.6% Thunderbolts
47.7% Volume 3
47.7% Multiverse of Madness
47.3% Brave New World
46.9% Vol. 2
46.0% Avengers
45.9% Infinity War
44.5% Deadpool & Wolverine
43.3% Ant-Man and the Wasp
40.6% Black Panther
40.4% Guardians
38.0% Winter Soldier
37.8% Iron Man
37.6% Legend of the Ten Rings
37.5% Marvels
33.7% No Way Home
31.4% Wakanda Forever

 

[Sithborg]

I remain hopeful that it can cross low to mid $500M. I don’t think my revised vote above for $600M is realistic at this point but…the next few weeks should stabilize a bit.

Weekdays are going to start to crash, because school is going back to for a lot of kids over the next few weeks.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Weekdays are going to start to crash, because school is going back to for a lot of kids over the next few weeks.

Yeah I believe that is the main reason they decided to release it so close to Superman- because the first four-6 weeks is when most movies make 90% of their box office total. So to risk it playing while kids return to school they would diminish their potential revenue Superman be damned

 

[psylockolussus]

Yeah I believe that is the main reason they decided to release it so close to Superman- because the first four-6 weeks is when most movies make 90% of their box office total. So to risk it playing while kids return to school they would diminish their potential revenue Superman be damned

They should have swapped Fantastic 4 and Thunderbolts*. Fantastic 4 in May and Thunderbolts in July or August. Brave New World should have kept its May 2024 release since the movie was bad anyway when it came out this year.

Its just unfortunate, that the huge box office success of Deadpool & Wolverine didn't really help these 2025 mcu movies. F4 still made records for the F4 brand (ignoring price inflation) and its the highest grossing Marvel movie of the year (for the first time since 2005). But I think these other 2025 mcu movies we got in February and May, didn't make things better for Fantastic 4. Plus all the Superman comparison when clearly Superman is the bigger name, is becoming toxic talk.

I hope the 4th weekend drop is finally below 50% to push it further to that 500 million mark. But like some MCU in the past, (Quantumania not hitting $500 million and Dr. Strange about 50 million away from a billion), its not going to hit the milestone number. Its not encouraging when the long forecast mentioned $490 million-510 million, so there's potential it would miss that 500 million mark.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The problem with what your suggesting is they didn't even finish FF until the end of June by all accounts. So, release it in May isn't that easy as plug and play. Did you want the effects to look like Quantumania?

Hindsight is always 20/20 and we don't always think about stuff like this

 

[psylockolussus]

They scheduled the film for May 2025 release which I thought was a good idea. I have no clue when they finished post-prod, but if they didn't do massive reshoots for Brave New World, maybe they could have released F4 in May like they planned before.

 

[Venom 1988]

They scheduled the film for May 2025 release which I thought was a good idea. I have no clue when they finished post-prod, but if they didn't do massive reshoots for Brave New World, maybe they could have released F4 in May like they planned before.

The strikes caused the delay, not BNW's reshoots.

 

[Spider-Fan]

They scheduled the film for May 2025 release which I thought was a good idea. I have no clue when they finished post-prod, but if they didn't do massive reshoots for Brave New World, maybe they could have released F4 in May like they planned before.

This film was test screening still in June, where people said it still look very unfinished. So post production wasn't finished for May and the movie got delayed for a reason. The date was never getting moved back up. If you wanted this as a May movie, then that would have been May 2026. Not May this year.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

This film was test screening still in June, where people said it still look very unfinished. So post production wasn't finished for May and the movie got delayed for a reason. The date was never getting moved back up. If you wanted this as a May movie, then that would have been May 2026. Not May this year.

Despite the general explanation of “pacing”, I suspect Moleman and Red Ghost may have been cut due to time/money limitations.