MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Spider-Fan]

The F4 were probably the first signed because it probably came with their F4 deals.

Those 4 and RDJ probably were first people signed, I agree

 

[SomeOldGuy]

1.75m Monday. Still can’t shake the 60% week over week drops.

 

[psylockolussus]

1.75m Monday. Still can’t shake the 60% week over week drops.

It is really quite front loaded almost Quantumania levels. But after the 3rd weekend, Quantumania was starting to drop lower than 50%

Quantumania
2nd Friday drop - 82%
2nd weekend drop - 69.9%
3rd Friday drop - 62%
3rd weekend drop - 59.9%
3rd Monday drop - 47.2%
4th weekend drop - 44.3%

First Steps
2nd Friday drop - 79.7%
2nd weekend drop - 67.1%
3rd Friday drop - 61.1%
3rd weekend drop - 59.2%
3rd Monday drop - 63.6%

The good news is this already outgrossed several mcu films and would cross the $250 million mark (North America).

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Do you want Halle back?

I want Storm back.

 

[Lily Adler]

I want Storm back.

I'd rather take Angela Basset appearing in the role.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Unless they cut her a very big check and/or they kissed and made up, I don't see Halle back.

She has real beef with RDJ since Gothika.

Wait—what?!! I didnt know that Halle Berry and Robert Downey Jr. had a falling out? What happened?

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I'd rather take Angela Basset appearing in the role.

Well, they kinda ruined that pathway with Queen Ramonda in the Black Panther films. I just have a hard time seeing the X-Men in Secret Wars and Storm not having a central role with their team.

 

[blueharvest]

Wait—what?!! I didnt know that Halle Berry and Robert Downey Jr. had a falling out? What happened?

He accidentally broke her arm when they were shooting Gothika.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

Wait—what?!! I didnt know that Halle Berry and Robert Downey Jr. had a falling out? What happened?

They did a stunt in their movie where RDJ broke Halle’s arm. He said it was an accident, but Halle is pissed that he never directly apologized to her.

She alluded to never wanting to work with him ever again on one of those talk shows a while ago.

 

[psylockolussus]

Well, they kinda ruined that pathway with Queen Ramonda in the Black Panther films. I just have a hard time seeing the X-Men in Secret Wars and Storm not having a central role with their team.

I don't really see Kevin Feige not at least contacting Halle Berry.

There's so many OT stars and even Channing Tatum (who didn't appear in any FoX-Men films) that are already in the MCU. Famke Jannsen and Halle Berry are in the film according to Jeff Sneider. If they can't make it work then thats too bad.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

2.5 Tuesday. Takes it to right about 235. Today should be interesting. First day of school for all the schools near me. Nationwide I think about half of non-college schools are back by Friday. Would not be surprised by rough numbers today and tomorrow, and not just for F4.

ETA actual came in at 2.6 so it topped 235.

 

[psylockolussus]

$235,089,886, outgrossed Doctor Strange, X-Men: Days of Future Past and X-Men: The Last Stand.

Since its impossible this would eventually cross the $300 million mark. There's only 2 other Marvel films, it could outgross in North America:

$262,030,663 Amazing Spider-Man
$259,766,572 Winter Soldier
$235,089,886 First Steps
$234,362,462 Last Stand
$233,921,534 Days of Future Past
$232,641,920 Doctor Strange
$226,277,068 Logan
$224,543,292 Legend of the Ten Rings
$222,527,828 Big Hero 6
$216,648,740 Ant-Man and the Wasp
$214,949,694 X2
$214,504,909 Quantumania
$213,550,366 Let There Be Carnage
$213,515,506 Venom
$206,362,140 Dark World
$202,853,933 Amazing Spider-Man 2
$200,500,001 Brave New World

Worldwide, there's still 4 Marvel films that didn't hit the 500 million mark that First Steps hasn't outgrossed yet.

$478,937,618 Last Dance
$476,071,180 Quantumania
$460,435,291 Last Stand
$449,326,618 Thor
$439,733,903 First Steps
$432,243,292 Legend of the Ten Rings
$415,101,577 Brave New World
$414,828,246 The Wolverine
$407,711,549 X2
$402,064,899 Eternals

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Do we think the film has the potential to hit $500M globally?

 

[Sithborg]

Do we think the film has the potential to hit $500M globally?

Its going to be close enough that Disney will force it over.

I am definitely curious how Shin Godzilla does this weekend.

 

[psylockolussus]

Do we think the film has the potential to hit $500M globally?

I'm thinking at least 480 million.

The last international update added more or less 35 million into the tally. The next update is at least going to be 40% of that.

439 million (Aug 12)
3 million (Aug 13/14, domestic)
7 million (4th weekend drop, if it's not about dropping lower than 55%)
14 million (International update til the weekend, 40% from the last update)
463 million by next Sunday*

then its going to be a slow crawl from there, it is dropping under a million by next Monday (if not this Thursday) in North America.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Do we think the film has the potential to hit $500M globally?

It feels to me like it’s going to fall juuuuuuuuust short, like 490-something. In which case Sithborg is probably right that Disney will try a final push.

 

[psylockolussus]

Release the Mole Man & Red Ghost Cut in cinemas!

I wish they added a teaser trailer for Doomsday at the end. That would have been wild!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Its going to be close enough that Disney will force it over.

I am definitely curious how Shin Godzilla does this weekend.

G stomped up 850k Thursday so good start.

F4 with a solid hold Thursday, 1.5 after 1.66 on Wednesday. Finally a sub-50% weekend drop incoming?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

‘Weapons’ Loads $25M Second Weekend, ‘Nobody 2’ Stuck At $9M+ Opening – Sunday AM Box Office Update

Summer is ratcheting down and the only major studio-wide entry this box office frame is Universal's Bob Odenkirk action sequel 'Nobody 2'.

deadline.com

Fantastic Four: First Steps (Dis) 3,355 (-245) theaters Fri $2.4M (-47%) 3-day $8.7M (-45%), Total $246.9M/Wk 4

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

$250M Domestic is looking feasible.

 

[psylockolussus]

I am hoping it would outgross The Winter Soldier and the Amazing Spider-Man, domestically.

$255 million is guaranteed. For the next Monday to Thursday, it should get 2 million total. Then by the 5th weekend, its guaranteed another 4.3 million if the 5th weekend drop is less than 50%, so $252 million total by the 5th weekend.

Then another 2 million for the 6th weekend and 1 million by the 7th weekend. I'm not sure if studios still do "extra push" in late theaterical run, by boosting the theater count.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$250M Domestic is looking feasible.

Should hit that next Friday if not sooner. Final feels like ~265m to me.

 

[psylockolussus]

265 million (domestic) is a great finish, all things considered.

-Highest grossing Marvel movie of 2025 (domestic/globally)
-Highest grossing Fantastic 4 film by a large margin
-First Fantastic 4 film to hit the $175/200/250 million mark domestically
-First Fantastic 4 film to hit the $350/400/450 million mark globally

 

[blueharvest]

 

[SomeOldGuy]

9.3 OS weekend. OS total now 221.7

8.8 estimated dom weekend, dom total ~247.

WW 468.7