MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[psylockolussus]

I'm thinking at least 480 million.

The last international update added more or less 35 million into the tally. The next update is at least going to be 40% of that.

439 million (Aug 12)
3 million (Aug 13/14, domestic)
7 million (4th weekend drop, if it's not about dropping lower than 55%)
14 million (International update til the weekend, 40% from the last update)
463 million by next Sunday*

then its going to be a slow crawl from there, it is dropping under a million by next Monday (if not this Thursday) in North America.

9.3 OS weekend. OS total now 221.7

8.8 estimated dom weekend, dom total ~247.

WW 468.7

My this week's global prediction was off by $5 million. I hope it crosses the $500 million mark, even if its just $500,000,004 million.

Hopefully this would get some boost from Labor Day weekend.

 

[Spider-Fan]

If for only PR purposes, I hope it makes 500 mil.

 

[Sithborg]

Like I said, it is going to get close, and Disney is going to force it over.

 

[psylockolussus]

Domestic (52.7%)
$247,037,549

International (47.3%)
$221,700,000 (outgrossed Captain America: Brave New World and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, internationally)

Worldwide
$468,737,549 (outgrossed Thor and X-Men: The Last Stand, globally)

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Like I said, it is going to get close, and Disney is going to force it over.

You’ve mentioned this before. How would Disney “force it over”? Delay its streaming date by keeping it in theaters longer?

 

[Sithborg]

Pretty much keeping it in just enough theaters to inch it over. Re-releases as well. And I am sure there are financial... tricks involved as well.

 

[mace1]

OMB Reviews youtube box office channel and his bad/incorrect takes.

Far right grifters like this channel are still saying superman and ff4 are flops.OMB and channels like his are using this rule 3x,instead of 2 to 2.5x for all movies.

So for him superman needs to make 675 million instead of 560 something million and for ff4 it needs to make 600 million instead of 500 million, so on and so on to make thier money back.

So clearly him and others like him using the 3x rule is incorrect.

Any superman made it's money back using the 2.5x rule and ff4 will make it's money back because it is close now to 500 million.

FF4 in 2 weeks or around there should/will make it to 500 million.
In fact it looks like it may make around 520 million to 530 million making a profit.
It may reach up to 535 million to 540 million or not.


Weapons Destroys Nobody 2 as James Gunn's Superman Gives Up

OMB Reviews


Oh and he is on a list of who are the far right youtubers.

 

[Spider-Fan]

These people don't know anything and should not be given any attention so they can fade into obscurity. Nothing these idiots say changes anything. The movie either makes Disney/Marvel money or not, and we will find that out whenever they announce a sequel

 

[lenz]

I wouldn't call them flops, but I wouldn't call them "hits" either. Superman is a solid success if you believe WB's spin in the trades about the budget and marketing costs. FF is a modest success at best.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Actuals in:
Weekend: $9,030,672 (-43%) just 221k more and it would have beat Nobody 2.
Dom: $247,268,221
OS: $222,212,182
WW: $469,480,403

 

[psylockolussus]

Hitting the 250 million mark by Tuesday! A quarter of a billion!

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I wouldn't call them flops, but I wouldn't call them "hits" either. Superman is a solid success if you believe WB's spin in the trades about the budget and marketing costs. FF is a modest success at best.

I disagree. I think we need to stop comparing Fantastic Four's box office numbers to that of Endgame or the other billion-dollar films that were payoffs to years of story-telling (or performed as connective tissue for huge ensemble films like Captain Marvel). First Steps is not the same thing at all.

It's not a spin-off of anything.

It's not connected to anything.

It's not a pay-off of anything.

This is something of an origin story--the FF's first appearance in the MCU. And it's boldly standing on its own merits without cameo appearances from other Marvel heroes (even Superman depended on an ensemble cast with the Justice League).

If anything, we should be comparing it to the other "standalone" first outings of Marvel's heroes. Many of them never reached $500M and this one will. It's going to be a financially successful film, and critically it is absolutely a hit.

 

[Sithborg]

Feige isn't payed for minor profits, though. Different companies, different situations. WB is in a middle of rebuilding and trying to have successes outside of Legendary. Feige is trying to save his job.

And I doubt the Avengers films are going to save FF2. I mean, didn't exactly save the post endgame sequels. (Strange 2 did as well as it did because NWH marketing also pushed Strange)

 

[psylockolussus]

It already outgrossed the previous Fantastic 4 films and its fellow 2025 Mcu films, so thats already a winner for me. If we look at the Marvel box office rankings, I've posted several times, it already outgrossed a lot of Marvel films. More money will also come at streaming and digital sales.

Fantastic 4 has never been in the same level of popularity as the X-Men, Spider-Man, Superman and Batman. Its not even in the top five Marvel ips. Maybe it was back in the 60s and 70s, but its been decades.

 

[psylockolussus]

Feige isn't payed for minor profits, though. Different companies, different situations. WB is in a middle of rebuilding and trying to have successes outside of Legendary. Feige is trying to save his job.

And I doubt the Avengers films are going to save FF2. I mean, didn't exactly save the post endgame sequels. (Strange 2 did as well as it did because NWH marketing also pushed Strange)

So are you saying there won't be a FF2?

So what else would they release after Secret Wars that isn't Spider-Man, Avengers, Dr. Strange, Black Panther, Thor, Shang-Chi and X-Men?

 

[Sithborg]

So are you saying there won't be a FF2?

So what else would they release after Secret Wars that isn't Spider-Man, Avengers, Dr. Strange, Black Panther, Thor, Shang-Chi and X-Men?

No. What I'm saying is I don't think Avengers is going to make the FF more popular, especially since they are going to be much, much more packed that the last one. And the numbers screams to me Suicide Squad. And we remember how SS to TSS went. Or a better Marvel comparison, Capt Marvel to The Marvels.

And the idea that 5 properties aren't enough to sustain Marvel between Avengers films is partly why it is 5+ years before sequels to begin with, so properties don't grow.

 

[Frodo]

The Fantastic Four has always been more popular in fandom than with the GA anyway , and 3 mediocre to bad films certainly hasn't made the property more popular .

The Fantastic Four has never had a The Dark Knight, Avengers : Endgame, or a Spiderman : No Way Home, style box office juggernaut, entry.

Perhaps Feige/ Disney, and fandom ,all thought this film would make as much as a Spiderman , Batman or Avengers film, but that was a tall ask anyway , as much as fans would have wanted the film to make that much .

But the fact that the film is on pace to make 500 million given all of the headwinds of this damaged property, , I consider an achievement, even if the studio is disappointed by the end box office result.

But , at the end of the day, it's up to Marvel and Disney in terms of how to move forward with a potential sequel.

At the very least, the characters aren't going anywhere in the MCU

 

[psylockolussus]

No. What I'm saying is I don't think Avengers is going to make the FF more popular, especially since they are going to be much, much more packed that the last one. And the numbers screams to me Suicide Squad. And we remember how SS to TSS went. Or a better Marvel comparison, Capt Marvel to The Marvels.

And the idea that 5 properties aren't enough to sustain Marvel between Avengers films is partly why it is 5+ years before sequels to begin with, so properties don't grow.

Suicide Squad 2016 sucked as a movie. The critical reception for both films are night and day, so thats not a good comparison, and the follow up to that movie took ages, which FF2 shouldn't emulate.

First Steps isn't also being a sandwiched by two Avengers movies and a new Avengers movie isn't coming out two months after First Steps, so thats not a very good comparison to Captain Marvel. First Steps came out just months after a critical flop (Brave New World) and one of the lower grossing Mcu films (Thunderbolts). First Steps is doing good on its own.

Avengers should help FF2 if those movies lived up to the hype and if the team made a strong impression in those 2 movies. At this point, there's no evidence that Doomsday/Secret Wars wouldn't benefit FF2.

 

[Sithborg]

The Fantastic Four has always been more popular in fandom than with the GA anyway , and 3 mediocre to bad films certainly hasn't made the property more popular .

The Fantastic Four has never had a The Dark Knight, Avengers : Endgame, or a Spiderman : No Way Home, style box office juggernaut, entry.

Perhaps Feige/ Disney, and fandom ,all thought this film would make as much as a Spiderman , Batman or Avengers film, but that was a tall ask anyway , as much as fans would have wanted the film to make that much .

But the fact that the film is on pace to make 500 million given all of the headwinds of this damaged property, , I consider an achievement, even if the studio is disappointed by the end box office result.

But , at the end of the day, it's up to Marvel and Disney in terms of how to move forward with a potential sequel.

At the very least, the characters aren't going anywhere in the MCU

It is barely going to make $500. And while better than other offerings this year, it is not the kind of success that he can feel his job is safe. And while I don't believe they were delusional to think that it would be a billion, I think their realistic expectations were $600. And they can only run the success PR because it is going to be 3rd top grossing of their past 7 offerings of the past two years. And considering the highs, I would hate to me in Feige's shoes.

Suicide Squad 2016 sucked as a movie. The critical reception for both films are night and day, so thats not a good comparison, and the follow up to that movie took ages, which FF2 shouldn't emulate.

First Steps isn't also being a sandwiched by two Avengers movies and a new Avengers movie isn't coming out two months after First Steps, so thats not a very good comparison to Captain Marvel. First Steps came out just months after a critical flop (Brave New World) and one of the lower grossing Mcu films (Thunderbolts). First Steps is doing good on its own.

Avengers should help FF2 if those movies lived up to the hype and if the team made a strong impression in those 2 movies. At this point, there's no evidence that Doomsday/Secret Wars wouldn't benefit FF2.

Yeah, SS sucked. But the box office reception? Awefully similar to FF. It may be a good movie, but it just did not connect to the audience. And good movies fail to connect to audiences all the time, that is okay.

I think assuming that there is going to be an "Avengers bump" is ignoring the reality we are in. This isn't Phase 1-3 anymore. The sequels post Endgame? No Avengers bump. GOTG and Thor stayed steady. Capt Marvel, Black Panther, and Ant-man all significantly dropped. The only sequel that did better was Strange, which is an outlier, and I doubt FF2 is going to be directly after Secret Wars to benefit from the advertising blitz.

 

[Frodo]

It is barely going to make $500. And while better than other offerings this year, it is not the kind of success that he can feel his job is safe. And while I don't believe they were delusional to think that it would be a billion, I think their realistic expectations were $600. And they can only run the success PR because it is going to be 3rd top grossing of their past 7 offerings of the past two years. And considering the highs, I would hate to me in Feige's shoes.

Well, I can't speak to what was in all of their minds with regards to whether they hoped it would make a billion, but I would consider that expectation pretty lofty, at best .

Would they want at least 600 million in terms of a realistic expectation? I could see that, but even that would be a reach given the prior box office history of the brand ,even with the MCU label on it.

As far as Feige's future goes, I don't know .

Time will tell .

Who would they replace him with at this point?

Is there someone Iger would have enough confidence in that could take over in two years ?

I'm skeptical that Iger would want to make a dramatic change like that anytime soon, but I don't know what Feige's plans are post Secret Wars, whether he has an heir apparent , or whether Iger already has people in mind that he'd have confidence in .

 

[Sithborg]

Well, I can't speak to what was in all of their minds with regards to whether they hoped it would make a billion, but I would consider that expectation pretty lofty, at best .

Would they want at least 600 million in terms of a realistic expectation? I could see that, but even that would be a reach given the prior box office history of the brand ,even with the MCU label on it.

As far as Feige's future goes, I don't know .

Time will tell .

Who would they replace him with at this point?

Is there someone Iger would have enough confidence in that could take over in two years ?

I'm skeptical that Iger would want to make a dramatic change like that anytime soon, but I don't know what Feige's plans are post Secret Wars, whether he has an heir apparent , or whether Iger already has people in mind that he'd have confidence in .

Iger is not going to be the one to replace Feige. It is going to be Iger's replacement.

 

[psylockolussus]

Plot twist: Kevin Feige replaces Bob Iger.

 

[MarvelFan]

Feige isn't payed for minor profits, though. Different companies, different situations. WB is in a middle of rebuilding and trying to have successes outside of Legendary. Feige is trying to save his job.

And I doubt the Avengers films are going to save FF2. I mean, didn't exactly save the post endgame sequels. (Strange 2 did as well as it did because NWH marketing also pushed Strange)

While I agree that the BO result isn't good, but Sithborg, I think if Kathleen Kennedy can survive with her Star Wars and Indiana Jones movie bombing and a cancelled tv show, I think Kevin will survive, too.

 

[Sithborg]

Kennedy has been playing this game far longer than Kevin. And the benefit of lower output, well, you don't lose money quite as fast.

 

[Stark Bauer]

The MCU has churned out 37 films in the last 18 years - Only 3 movies failed to be profitable. Marvels and Quantummania and Thunderbolts. That’s still a staggeringly high 92% success rate.

With 32.4 billion dollars and rising,

the MCU is still the highest grossing franchise in box office history. Feige doesn’t get fired for that- they will wait and see how Spider-Man and the two Avengers movies perform before deciding that. All three of those EASILY make a billion worldwide each- probably the easiest box office prediction to make besides Cameron’s Avatar franchise.

I also predict FF2 will probably have a better overall story and hopefully cameos as well as Doom and it might even hit a billion especially if those cameos are Spider-Man and Hulk ( so he can vs Thing of course)