Silva has All-Star potential
posted: Friday, November 9, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry
With Curt Schilling off the market, the No. 1 free-agent starting pitcher is -- believe it or not -- Carlos Silva. Might seem a bit strange, considering that Silva racked up a 5.94 ERA in 2006 ... and he was healthy.
Patrick Sullivan is a bit less than impressed ...
He is a ground-ball pitcher, a good thing by most any account, but his ability to induce ground balls is really the only element of his game that prevents him from being an all-out disaster on the mound. See the following:
YEAR G/F HR ERA+
2004 1.58 23 112
2005 1.55 25 129
2006 1.29 38 75
2007 1.57 20 103
His consistency in 2004, 2005 and 2007 inspire confidence, but his disastrous 2006 shows that Silva walks a fine line on the mound. As you can see in 2006, when the sinker ain't sinkin' and the balls are flying out of the yard, Silva becomes a crummy pitcher pretty quickly. Any team willing to pony up the $30 million-$40 million guaranteed will have to be assured that Silva has become a surefire ground-ball machine, because minus that skill, his effectiveness all but disappears.
The ability to induce ground balls is not the only positive element of Silva's game. Silva never walks anybody. In 2005, he walked only nine batters in 188 innings. Over the last two seasons, he's walked roughly one batter per start. That, as much as all the ground balls, is how he survives. That horrible 2006? That was the exception rather than the rule. He gave up roughly 15 more homers than usual, and he also was "hit-unlucky" (more batted balls dropped for hits than we would have expected). You put Silva on a National League team with a good defense behind him, and he's solid. Give him a few breaks and he's an All-Star.
