Pirates 3, Spider-Man 3, Shrek The Third - What film will gross the most?

[Matt]

While I understand your reasoning for Pirates having less competition, it can go both ways. I put my bets on Spidey because it has the overall better odds. While some want to downplay Shrek, it does still have the potential to be bigger than Pirates. The fact that it has been 3 years since the last one could play well with the audience. It is the biggest Kids franchise around and the wait could have built anticipation. I don't see it being frontloaded because it is a kids film and the first and second film weren't frontloaded. Shrek 3 and POTC 3 are the hardest to predict because they both have a 50/50 chance of coming out on top. But, again, Spidey has the absolute best chances out of all 3 of them to reign supreme.

I agree. Those two competitionless free, guarunteed weeks does give it the best odds. But I do disagree about anticipation. When you are a kid 3 years seems like an eternity. Look at children, they are the most trendy people alive. They ride a fad until something betters comes along. If it isn't new and fresh, they aren't interested. If a Pokemon movie for example were released today, it would bomb. Why? Because it is no longer fresh in children's minds.

 

[Downhere]

But Shrek isn't Pokemon. There was a 3 year wait between Shrek and Shrek 2 and Shrek 2 made a great deal more money than Shrek 1. I mean, your talking over a hundred and fifty million dollars more domestically. That is substantial growth over the first film. Now, I don't see Shrek 3 making over 400 million this time, but it still poses a threat to POTC 3. I still think it was a mistake on Disney's part to open the film in May because of this, your basically asking for a reduced take because the competition is so big. It will probably make 60-70% of what it could have made in a better release slot.

 

[AssMan]

I think we all should agree to do a wait & see. There are so many potential good movies coming out this summer that one movie can easily say **** you to the other movie & make more. In the long run it is hard to predict how any of these movies will do.

 

[Hunter Rider]

Really? Joker is only a subplot? Bummer. Who is the main villian?

No that was an early rumour that he would have limited screen time but it turned out false.

 

[AssMan]

I also think that one movie all of you all are over looking when it comes to kids is Transformers. Thats just about the only new thing coming out this summer & I think the kids will eat up & love the idea about cars that transform into Robots & are fighting each other & seriously there has to be plenty of dads out there that loved Transformers as a kid & they will defintiely take their kids to see it. I think Transformers will be big competition for all of these movies.

Spider-Man 3
Transformers
At Worlds End
Shrek 3

It is definitely down to these 4

 

[Downhere]

Spider-Man 3
Transformers
At Worlds End
Shrek 3

It is definitely down to these 4

I definitely agree with that, these 4 are the ones to beat this summer.

 

[Matt]

I also think that one movie all of you all are over looking when it comes to kids is Transformers. Thats just about the only new thing coming out this summer & I think the kids will eat up & love the idea about cars that transform into Robots & are fighting each other & seriously there has to be plenty of dads out there that loved Transformers as a kid & they will defintiely take their kids to see it. I think Transformers will be big competition for all of these movies.

Spider-Man 3
Transformers
At Worlds End
Shrek 3

It is definitely down to these 4

I still say The Simpsons is a contender.

 

[lordofthenerds]

I still say The Simpsons is a contender.

I agree, Simpsons could very well beat Transformers in the box office. I doubt Transformers will be as huge with kids as Assman thinks. It's trailer seemed to be more geared toward drawing in teens and adults than children and it's probable PG-13 rating may keep parents from allowing their kids to watch the movie.

 

[AssMan]

PG-13 rating may keep parents from allowing their kids to watch the movie.

If a simple PG-13 rating with a Robot Movie is such a big deal then I doubt parents would let their kids see POTC which all have been PG-13 & Spider-Man for that matter & Spider-Man 3 looks a wee bit more darker then Transformers

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm still sticking to Shrek winning the day with Pirates 3 close behind.

My final Predictions are:

Shrek 385mil
POTC3 370mil
SM3 (I obviously want to see this the most, although I don't have huge hopes for it because it is a 3rd movie and most of the times those suck)
340mil

I just know I'm overpredicting all of them and that Spidey is more likely to make "just" over 300mil because of the competition. All of the movies are more likely than not going to hurt eachother more than most people think. On the flip side I think Spidey 3 will more than likely get the opening weekend record.

 

[Cinemaman]

Think of it this way,remember when we heard the Joker was only going to be a subplot in TDK ? working behind the scenes....the fans went nuts,i am sure a large bulk of Spidey fans will be annoyed at Venom only being in the last 15 minutes...NOW maybe they will go back and see it again and again simply b/c it is their only chance to see Venom or they may not due to anger.

I don't really remember this, but I heard something about Joker being not center figure of crime. I am agreed with you, for some people, who will be disappointed only in this aspect of the entire movie, it will be the only way to see their favorite villian on screen. But from what I have already seen, Venom looks great

 

[Cinemaman]

And you are using a vague demographic that you cannot account for, therefore your "everyone wants to see Venom" argument is just as lame. At least Longshot is using a REAL demographic.

And y'know Cinemaman, after your embarrassment in last year's box office thread, is it really a good idea for you to be making more guaruntees?

As he said it looked like everyone does really wnat to see him, but such arguments as "my friends say this, so everyone should listen to them" is just very bad idea.

What you want from me, look at yourself, you have never made any box office forecast (as I remember) and now you sond like a master of predictions. Besides, my numbers for both MI3 and Da Vinci Code were right

 

[Cinemaman]

I also think that one movie all of you all are over looking when it comes to kids is Transformers. Thats just about the only new thing coming out this summer & I think the kids will eat up & love the idea about cars that transform into Robots & are fighting each other & seriously there has to be plenty of dads out there that loved Transformers as a kid & they will defintiely take their kids to see it. I think Transformers will be big competition for all of these movies.

Spider-Man 3
Transformers
At Worlds End
Shrek 3

It is definitely down to these 4

There is actually a bigger shark and it's called... Harry Potter 5. I see it easily beating TF, while this one makes enough money ($170-190m domesticly for $150m budget is solid).
TF has very big fan and hate base, but we all know that they both will end up seeing the movie (will they like it? I can't really say). If it's really good movie, it will get a good WOM, what also means good legs and what also means chance to $180m. Still, I can't see TF making more than $50m opening, so it will earn money, only if WOM is good in my opinion.

 

[lordofthenerds]

If a simple PG-13 rating with a Robot Movie is such a big deal then I doubt parents would let their kids see POTC which all have been PG-13 & Spider-Man for that matter & Spider-Man 3 looks a wee bit more darker then Transformers

Well, the showings I went to for the POTC and Spider-Man movies had for more teens and adults in the audience than kids. I knew people in 6th grade whose parents still didn't allow them to watch anything that was PG-13. Transformers won't be nearly as big with kids as Shrek 3, Harry Potter, Ratatouille, or The Simpsons. And as far as I know, Spidey and Pirates are more popular with kids than Transformers anyway.

 

[Mr. Credible]

I'm still sticking to Shrek winning the day with Pirates 3 close behind.

My final Predictions are:

Shrek 385mil
POTC3 370mil
SM3 (I obviously want to see this the most, although I don't have huge hopes for it because it is a 3rd movie and most of the times those suck)
340mil

I just know I'm overpredicting all of them and that Spidey is more likely to make "just" over 300mil because of the competition. All of the movies are more likely than not going to hurt eachother more than most people think. On the flip side I think Spidey 3 will more than likely get the opening weekend record.

um... i hate to belay the obvious, but they're all 3rd movies.

 

[Mr. Credible]

Well, the showings I went to for the POTC and Spider-Man movies had for more teens and adults in the audience than kids. I knew people in 6th grade whose parents still didn't allow them to watch anything that was PG-13. Transformers won't be nearly as big with kids as Shrek 3, Harry Potter, Ratatouille, or The Simpsons. And as far as I know, Spidey and Pirates are more popular with kids than Transformers anyway.

i love brad bird as much as the next guy, but there is simply no way Ratatouille can contend with spider-man, transformers, pirates, or even shrek. that movie will end up in last place, with the simpsons in a close second to it. i can almost guarantee it. people have gradually cared less and less about the simpsons for the past 5 years or so, and for good reason, the show has simply lost it's steam, and the people have no reason to think the movie will be any different.

 

[L0ngsh0t]

As he said it looked like everyone does really wnat to see him, but such arguments as "my friends say this, so everyone should listen to them" is just very bad idea.

What you want from me, look at yourself, you have never made any box office forecast (as I remember) and now you sond like a master of predictions. Besides, my numbers for both MI3 and Da Vinci Code were right

The point I was trying to make with using my friends for an example, is my friends aren't really like me, yes the love movies, and they like sweet movies, but they have nothing more then a generally understanding about the spiderman world, and that is kind of the impression I get with most non-comic book fans, is they have an idea of what the universe of spiderman encompasses, but they don't know it that well. Me, and alot of people on these boards have a little greater knowledge of spiderman, and how it works, and how venom works....People I have talked to (by no means the for sure representation of everyone) but they are pretty much expecting Venom to be the main villain, and I do indeed question what the reaction will be once everyone sees that he is in the movie for 15 minutes

And b.o. predictions are rediculous in all accounts, great! you picked two blockbusters, to bust the block with DVC and MI-3, I am sure they sleeped past most . You dropped the ball with SR, but no one could have predicted that movie would have been as bad as it was, and DMC as good as it was

My guess is SM3 and POTC will both be 360+, and Sherk 3 be 320+, but hey, you never know all three will have monster opening weekends I am sure, then it all depends I guess which movie fans like best, sure SM3 is gunna win on a board titled Superherohype of course SM3 is gunna be the favorite on here. Harry Potter, and Transformers are being a little but underated here, granted transformers is a bit of a sleeper, but it has mega potential cause it looks absolutley stellar

it'll be a no holds bar summer thats for sure, and the winner probably won't win by too much

 

[Darth Elektra]

it'll be a no holds bar summer thats for sure, and the winner probably won't win by too much

Bingo, This race is going to be close.

 

[lordofthenerds]

i love brad bird as much as the next guy, but there is simply no way Ratatouille can contend with spider-man, transformers, pirates, or even shrek. that movie will end up in last place, with the simpsons in a close second to it. i can almost guarantee it. people have gradually cared less and less about the simpsons for the past 5 years or so, and for good reason, the show has simply lost it's steam, and the people have no reason to think the movie will be any different.

I agree that Transformers will probably beat it, but it might surprise us. These digitally animated movies are still popular and I've seen more positive reactions to its trailer than Transformer's.

 

[Mr Jide]

Damn, the hype for sm3 has most of you all fooled. I must be one of the few die-hard spidey fans who hasn't been blinded by all the hype. Are you guys even actually looking at the competition? Just go through a quick run down and analysis of what each brings to the table and wait to see the BO results. By the end of it all, sm3 will NOT be the summer BO messiah that so many of you blindly think it'll be.........but thats just my opinion of course...

 

[TheCaretaker]

Spidey will rule all....

 

[Cinemaman]

The point I was trying to make with using my friends for an example, is my friends aren't really like me, yes the love movies, and they like sweet movies, but they have nothing more then a generally understanding about the spiderman world, and that is kind of the impression I get with most non-comic book fans, is they have an idea of what the universe of spiderman encompasses, but they don't know it that well. Me, and alot of people on these boards have a little greater knowledge of spiderman, and how it works, and how venom works....People I have talked to (by no means the for sure representation of everyone) but they are pretty much expecting Venom to be the main villain, and I do indeed question what the reaction will be once everyone sees that he is in the movie for 15 minutes

And b.o. predictions are rediculous in all accounts, great! you picked two blockbusters, to bust the block with DVC and MI-3, I am sure they sleeped past most . You dropped the ball with SR, but no one could have predicted that movie would have been as bad as it was, and DMC as good as it was

My guess is SM3 and POTC will both be 360+, and Sherk 3 be 320+, but hey, you never know all three will have monster opening weekends I am sure, then it all depends I guess which movie fans like best, sure SM3 is gunna win on a board titled Superherohype of course SM3 is gunna be the favorite on here. Harry Potter, and Transformers are being a little but underated here, granted transformers is a bit of a sleeper, but it has mega potential cause it looks absolutley stellar

it'll be a no holds bar summer thats for sure, and the winner probably won't win by too much

Uhhh... Sorry, but again, I will believe your friends, only if Spidey 3 gets a very huge drop next week after the opening one.

Actually, both SR and POTC2 turned out as disappointments. Everybody has his own opinion, and most of people didn't like both of them as I remember reading reviews on RT, IMDb, here and other websites. DMC had mistakes like overusing Jack Sparrow, making the movie lighter in atmosphere and having a worser look than first movie did, which was very good summer blockbuster.

All 3 movies making more than $300m in one month? That's impossible, there must be one of them, which won't do so much (my guess is Shrek 3). I must agree with you, every movie has potential, but we will know which one is #1 only next month. TF really looked like crap 8 months ago, but now I can't believe myself that I am so hyped about it. Honestly, I doubt it has any chance to beat Harry Potter 5 (what about that Pixar's flick... there is some hope), but I am sure it will make a bit more than it's budget.

 

[Hunter Rider]

The general public clearly loved DMC no matter what some reviews say,look at the BO and so far SM3 has had mixed reviews from what ive read

 

[Cinemaman]

^^^

87%, 7.1, Fresh - 13, Rotten - 2. You know, it doesn't sound mixed so far.

Maybe people really liked DMC, but I doubt it was better than the 1st one in their opinion.

 

[Cyrusbales]

A lot of people hated DMC as well though, many have been put off the POTC franchise by it. People went to see it and were disappointed, but people still went to see it, hence the BO.