Pirates 3, Spider-Man 3, Shrek The Third - What film will gross the most?

[Erzengel]

I can't believe S3 has made more than Shrek 3 and Pirates 3. Hopefully Transformers owns them all, but I can see Transformers making just over 200 million or well over 400 million here in the States.

You must be a gambling man with that narrow spectrum you gave TFers.

 

[Darth Elektra]

WEEKEND ACTUALS:

1 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer $58,051,684
2 Ocean's Thirteen $19,724,405
3 Knocked Up $14,069,880
4 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $12,411,786
5 Surf's Up $9,254,793
6 Shrek the Third $9,003,044
7 Nancy Drew $6,832,318
8 Hostel Part II $3,026,131
9 Mr. Brooks $2,902,024
10. Spider-Man 3 $2,505

 

[Darth Elektra]

REVIEW: Transformers is the movie of the summer...
'Transformers' blows Spidey, Sparrow and Surfer away!
by Steve Mason

When the dust settles from this 2007 summer of sequels, one movie will stand above all others. For originality and excitement and action and special effects and flat-out fun, the hands-down winner is Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount). When all is said and done, I'll be surprised if this testosterone-injected thrill ride doesn't finish as the top-grossing movie of the year.

A generation of boys (and some girls) grew up on Transformers toys, cartoons and comic books in the '80s, and those same fans, now in their late 20s and early 30s, are ready to introduce their kids to this major touchstone of their collective childhood. Michael Bay was the ideal choice to direct the new movie. He can choreograph action and "blow stuff up" with the best of 'em, and he's always been on the cutting edge of movie special effects because of his stake in Digital Domain. On top of everything that Bay bring, however, Steven Spielberg's fingerprints are unmistakable. As Executive Producer, he has managed to inject into Transformers the sweetness, humor and sense of wonder that are the hallmarks of his best work.

For the uninitiated, there are two kinds of Transformers. The Decepticons are hell-bent on dominating the universe, and they've set their sights on taking control of Earth. Then there are the Autobots, a benevolent class of robot who prefer peaceful coexistence with humans. Both breeds have the ability to disguise themselves as cars or trucks or boomboxes or cellular phones or just about anything.

The movie starts in the Middle East with a spectacular attack on a U.S. military base by a Decepticon known as Blackout (in a second skirmish, Blackout becomes a crazy-cool robot scorpion). One of the soldiers at the base is Captain Lennox (played by Josh Duhamel of NBC's Las Vegas), a sturdy American who looks forward to holding his newborn baby girl on his next trip home. Back in the States, suburban high school nerd Sam Witwicky is angling for his first car. Played by the white-hot Shia LaBeouf (Disturbia), Sam is funny, goofy and endearing. His car, a rusted-out yellow Camaro, essentially picks him, and it turns out to be an Autobot named Bumblebee.

The story is told through Captain Lennox and Sam, who find themselves in the middle of a full-scale robot war with nothing less than the fate of humanity hanging in the balance. Not being of the Transformers generation myself (I just missed out, graduating from high school in 1983), I didn't go in knowing the mythology, but it didn't really matter. The backstory is explained just enough without bogging the movie down. Plus, this is over-the-top summer fun, not a "think piece."

The special effects in Transformers are the best I have ever seen. Since the advent of CGI, I've often come away from the movies thinking that the effects look fake. The dinosaurs in Jurassic Park, Robert Patrick as the liquid metal T-1000 in Terminator 2: Judgement Day and the ship sinking in Titanic are all excellent effects for their time, but the Autobots and Decepticons are in a different league. They look real. Period.

The robot transformations are amazing to watch. Many of them happen quickly, but there is one that is especially noteworthy. The leader of the Autobots is Optimus Prime (revered by every Transformers fan). When he first transforms from semi cab to robot, it happens slowly and with great drama. You're able to see how much detail goes into this transition as, piece-by-piece, Optimus rises in all of his glory.

There are some nifty Spielberg touches along the way. After an Autobot crash lands in a swimming pool, a little girl with a stuffed animal walks outside to see what happened. Slowly, a huge robot emerges from the pool, and the little girl's face, bathed in moonlight, is filled with awe and wonder. When Sam is courting his girlfriend-to-be (Megan Fox), his car (Bumblebee) changes stations on the radio to provide the proper mood music (like Marvin Gaye's "Let's Get It On"). And, most notably, there's the relationship between Sam and Bumblebee. When this yellow-and-black robot gets in trouble, you can read very human pain on its face, and there are shades of the sort of emotional bond we saw between Elliot and E.T.

The movie flies at breakneck pace toward a robot battle royale. It's Optimus Prime, Bumblebee and the Autobots vs. Megatron and the Decepticons, and this is Bay at his best. The effects are an astounding whirr of changing forms and perfectly choreographed transitions, in the midst of an incredible chase, filled with explosions and blasts and detonations. In addition to the visual effects people, the sound guys and sound editors will also be recognized at the Oscars. The squealing of tires, the metal-on-metal scraping and the rumbling of oncoming giant robots makes for a visceral, one-of-a-kind moviegoing experience.

 

[rashad]

That's nice. I'll see it for myself and be the judge of that.

 

[PowersOfMind]

Transformers sound promising. I'm excited anyway because well...IT's Transformers!!. Yet I will have to see for myself if I truly love it.

I dont know about Transformers blowing Pirates and Spidey out of the water but definitly FF because that movie was meh.

 

[Mr Jide]

In terms of quality, Transformers looks set to grease its ass with every other sumer movie.

 

[Erzengel]

Weekend 1
Spider-Man 3: $151.1 Mil
Shrek the Third: $121.6 Mil
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: $114.7 Mil

Weekend 2
Spider-Man 3: $58.2 Mil
Shrek the Third: $53.0 Mil
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: $44.2 Mil

Weekend 3
Spider-Man 3: $29.0 Mil
Shrek the Third: $28.0 Mil
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: $21.1 Mil

Weekend 4
Spider-Man 3: $14.3 Mil
Shrek the Third: $15.3 Mil
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: $12.4 Mil

Revised as per actuals.

 

[Erzengel]

It also looks like Shrek the Third will be crossing over the $300 million mark after Wednesday's gross.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Preview and Box Office Analysis for June 22 - 24
The sequels keep a-comin' and while a few of this summer's offerings haven't done as well as their predecessors, that will probably be nothing compared to what happens when Steve Carell tries to step into Jim Carrey's shoes for Evan Almighty (Universal), an animal-driven comedy based on the biblical tale of Noah's Ark. Although Carell's appeal from "The Office" and The 40-Year-Old Virgin will play a large factor in getting people into theatres, it's more likely to appeal to kids and their parents than teens and adults, and it will fall way short of the opening of its predecessor Bruce Almighty.

That's fine, because older audiences will have plenty of other choices like the Stephen King horror-thriller 1408 (Dimension Films), starring John Cusack and Samuel L. Jackson, a movie with a significantly creepy trailer and commercials that will appeal to horror fans that like scares but not necessarily blood and gore. Its PG-13 rating will offer a lot of potentail for bringing in teens, but it's vying for third place behind the big budget sequels.

The grown-ups may choose to see Angelina Jolie as Mariane Pearl, the pregnant wife of kidnapped journalist Daniel Pearl, in Michael Winterbottom's political drama A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage), although its tough subject matter and moderate release is likely to keep it just outside the Top 5.

Last year, Adam Sandler's high concept comedy Click opened at #1 with $40 million, dethroning Pixar's Cars, while Tyrese Gibson starred in Vondie Curtis-Hall's crime drama Waist Deep, which exceeded expectations by making $9.4 million in just a thousand theatres. The Top 10 grossed just under $125 million, a number that should be easy to beat as long as Evan Almighty and/or 1408 meet expectations.

This Week's Predictions

1. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $35.8 million
2. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) - $26.5 million
3. 1408 (Dimension) - $18.1 million
4. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $10.8 million
5. Knocked Up (Universal) - $9.2 million
6. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) - $7.0 million
7. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) - $6.6 million
8. Surf's Up (Sony) - $5.4 million
9. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $5.2 million
10. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) - $3.5 million

 

[enterthemadness]

You must be a gambling man with that narrow spectrum you gave TFers.

Nope.... just wanna be correct is all. I mean...I could be a twit and say 'OMGZ, Trans wiles makes 7000,0000 billion stateszides loles!'

 

[Erzengel]

Weekend 5
Spider-Man 3: $7.6 Mil
Shrek the Third: $9.0 Mil
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: $6.6 Mil Est.

Weekend 6
Spider-Man 3: $4.3 Mil
Shrek the Third: $5.2 Mil Est.
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: $???

Shrek seems to be having the better repeat business.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Monday:

FANTASTIC FOUR: RISE OF THE SILVER SURFER: $5,896,708

OCEAN'S THIRTEEN: $2,412,000

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END: $1,436,000

KNOCKED UP: $2,180,250

SURF'S UP: $1,347,000

Shrek the Third: $1,150,000

Nancy Drew: $1,149,000

MR. BROOKS: $379,179

HOSTEL PART II: $520,552

SPIDER-MAN 3: $296,000

per BOM.

 

[enterthemadness]

I can't believe DOA dropped less than Fantastic Four 2 did.

FF2 dropped 64.1% Monday and DOA only dropped 41.5%.

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2007-06-18&p=.htm

 

[Darth Elektra]

Around the World Roundup: 'Shrek' Takes Crown
June 19, 2007

A four-way fight at the foreign box office saw Shrek the Third emerge victorious for the weekend crown. The fractured fairy tale tabulated $46.6 million from 32 territories for a five-week haul of $108.3 million. The picture was fueled by 14 new markets, breaking records in many of them.

In Mexico, Shrek the Third nabbed $9.2 million from 418 screens, the second highest start ever for an animated picture and double Shrek 2. It did one better in Brazil with the largest animated opening of all time: $6 million from 343 screens, which was nearly 200 percent bigger than Shrek 2. Three other animated opening records fells in Argentina ($1.6 million from 101), Hungary ($983,338 from 30) and Turkey ($1 million from 163). Yet the movie's highest launch, France's $12.5 million from 739 screens, broke no records, though it was still 26 percent higher than Shrek 2.

Among holdover markets, Shrek the Third's drop-off rates were surprisingly steep. As expected, it fell north of 60 percent in the Southeast Asian markets, but tumbled 69 percent in South Korea to $2.7 million for a $15.2 million total. In Australia, it was off 59 percent to $4.4 million for a $17.1 million, though it surpassed the first Shrek's final tally of $16.6 million. Overall, Shrek the Third has played marginally better than its predecessor, suggesting a final tally of around $500 million should the pace continue.

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End may have retreated to second place internationally, but it finally leveled off after two weeks of 50 percent plus drops, down 36 percent to an estimated $32.6 million. Its total, which ballooned to $547 million, now places tenth on the all time overseas chart, eclipsing Spider-Man 3 and The Da Vinci Code. Despite all its good fortune, Pirates had a disappointing opening in China, its final major market. The supernatural swashbuckler grossed $5.9 million over its first six days. By comparison, Spider-Man 3 yielded $8.8 million in its first six days there. At World's End, however, was the final American movie to open before communist China's blackout, in which no outside movies are allowed to open for the next month (with some minor exceptions).

George Clooney in Ocean's Thirteen

In third place, Ocean's Thirteen grossed $26.7 million for a $67.4 million total. The caper's holdover markets were down just 35 percent overall as there was a widespread rebound in the European markets from the previous weekend's dilapidated grosses. In most of its 11 new markets, though, Thirteen opened to lower grosses than its predecessor. In Australia, it debuted underneath Shrek the Third with $3.4 million from 356 prints, a smidgen worse than Ocean's Twelve. In the Netherlands, where Twelve finished with third highest gross of its year ($6.8 million), Thirteen opened 29 percent lower than Twelve with just $1.1 million from 95 screens. In South Korea, it marginally led Shrek with $3.3 million from 190 screens but did top Twelve by a resounding 37 percent.

Fourth place, and the final member of the weekend's big four, was Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer. The superhero sequel generated an estimated $25.5 million from 32 markets in its debut. Results were generally higher than its predecessor as it proportionally played like X2: X-Men United versus the first X-Men. The Silver Surfer caught the attention of the United Kingdom to the tune of $8.2 million from 474 screens, a 32 percent increase over the original. In Italy, it opened in the middle of the Summer season, the traditional low point of the Italian box office, yet still grossed $3.4 million from 646 screens topping both the original and X2.

In Southeast Asia, Rise of the Silver Surfer was fantastic with openings like the Philippines' $2.2 million, the largest start ever for distributor 20th Century Fox, and Malaysia's $1 million, another Fox best. Indonesia's opening day was Fox's largest ever and the movie's weekend amounted to $741,337. India's $428,469 from 125, Thailand's $1.4 million from 177, Hong Kong's $1 million from 62 and Singapore's $1.3 million from 79 were also very impressive.

Fifth place probably went to Indian hit Jhoom Barabar Jhoom, which had high grosses in territories outside of India, while actual Indian figures were not yet available. In the U.K., it ranked sixth on the chart with $526,962 from 47 screens and, in Australia, it took tenth place with $76,898 from 12 screens.

Death Proof, Quentin Tarantino's half of domestic's Grindhouse, continued to provide decent counter-programming with an estimated $1.6 million weekend from 12 territories for a $7.6 million total. It's played best in France with $891,347 from 343 screens in its second weekend for a $2.8 million total. It also opened well in Turkey with a fourth-place $98,566 from 40 screens.

Meanwhile, Vacancy opened moderately in the U.K. with $1.1 million from 288 screens. The horror thriller had a better start than similar recent entries The Hitcher and Turistas.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Tuesday:

FANTASTIC FOUR: RISE OF THE SILVER SURFER: $5,101,445

OCEAN'S THIRTEEN: $2,388,413

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END: $1,442,807

KNOCKED UP: $2,165,715

SURF'S UP: $1,514,939

Shrek the Third: $1,263,519

Nancy Drew: $1,262,334

MR. BROOKS: $395,643

HOSTEL PART II: $477,545

SPIDER-MAN 3: $308,628

per BOM.

 

[Erzengel]

Shrek the Third joins SM3 in the over $300 million domestic gross.

 

[Downhere]

Wednesday Numbers per BOM:


Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer - $4,464,001
Oceans Thirteen - $2,267,370
Knocked Up - $2,020,365
Surf's Up - $1,623,777
POTC 3 - $1,404,729
Shrek 3 - $1,302,464
Nancy Drew - $1,264,264
Hostol II - $429,440
Mr. Brooks - $383,352
Spider-Man 3 - $305,938


http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

 

[Erzengel]

I wonder if Shrek 3 by next week will have better dailies than Pirates.

 

[Downhere]

I wonder if Shrek 3 by next week will have better dailies than Pirates.

Probably, Shrek is having some nice legs lately. It will still finish below SM3, but the gap will probably end up in the 10-15 million range. POTC 3 is doing well too I think, should get to 310 million.


What is disappointing is F4-2's daily drops for the week. The chances for it to match the original's domestic take are dropping by the minute. Hopefully it does better next week. I'd like for it to at least get to 140 million domestically.

 

[Erzengel]

For the past week or so, AWE's dailies have been surpassing SM3, but it's the weekends that keeps them back keeping it's weekly gross under both SM3 and Shrek 3.

SM3 seems to be losing steam, this weekend will probably be the last that it makes over $1 million. So it looks like it's going to limp to $335.

 

[Downhere]

For the past week or so, AWE's dailies have been surpassing SM3, but it's the weekends that keeps them back keeping it's weekly gross under both SM3 and Shrek 3.

SM3 seems to be losing steam, this weekend will probably be the last that it makes over $1 million. So it looks like it's going to limp to $335.

I think AWE is doing better with its dailies because of summer vacation, more people are seeing it on the weekdays because they are off from school. Either way it's doing great...the big 3 have done exceptionally well. A month with 3 300 million dollar films...wow.

 

[Erzengel]

But then how do you explain the weekends?

 

[Downhere]

Well, it's summer, the increases on the weekend aren't going to be big increases so it levels out I guess. It's still doing very well.

 

[Erzengel]

Not as well as a lot of posters here thought judging by the poll.

It'll be interesing since Shrek the Third opened up last week in the foreign markets, with more releases this week and more next week, I wonder if Shrek will upset SM3 or AWE.

 

[Darth Elektra]

PRELIMINARY 3-DAY ESTIMATES: 'Evan Almighty' w/$35M-$38M; '1408' w/$15M-$18M; 'Mighty Heart' w/$4.5M-$6.5M

Universal’s Evan Almighty appears to be in some trouble. Despite its $200M+ budget, the presence of Steve Carrel and an aggressive campaign aimed at Christians, it appears that this story of a modern day Noah will generate a weekend gross that is only in the $35-$38M range. I’m told that the 3 major tracking services have the movie at $35M or $36M, but one studio has the picture at $38M and another says that it gets to $40M tops. If this number holds, and keep in mind that it is a preliminary number, Evan Almighty will have a hard time getting to $100M domestic. That would be a major disaster for Universal.

Meanwhile, MGM/Weinstein may have a modest hit on its hands with 1408. This is a horror film, but not a R-rated torture film from the Hostel/Hills Have Eyes school. Instead, it’s just a good scary movie about a haunted hotel room with a very good John Cusack performance. My sources say that one of the tracking services has this picture at $10M for the weekend and another has it at $18M. Despite that disagreement, one studio source says that the $15M-$18M range feels right, which would be a significant upside surprise.

The Angelina Jolie film A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) is performing as expected and should finish with a 3-day in the $4.5M-$6.5M range. Last week’s #1, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) will have a major drop. The consensus is that a 60% fall is likely.

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/06/preliminary-3-d.html