Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[C. Lee]

Me, my wife, and kid went to see it again this afternoon.....the theater was 3/4 full.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Marvel takes the crown for 2016, after losing it to Star Wars in 2015.

2017 will be interesting, 3 MCU movies VS Episode 8.

There is no film in 2017 that will touch VIII.

 

[Filmfan93]

There is no film in 2017 that will touch VIII.

This. Ep. VIII will be huge at the BO. Probably not as big as TFA, but it will make more than any other film in 2017. On 2nd place i think it will be either GOTG Vol.2 or Beauty and the Beast.

 

[Xrated48]

This. Ep. VIII will be huge at the BO. Probably not as big as TFA, but it will make more than any other film in 2017. On 2nd place i think it will be either GOTG Vol.2 or Beauty and the Beast.

Same nothing is coming close to Star Wars in 2017. Beauty and the Beast will take second. The rest of top ten I'm not 100% sure yet.

 

[Lord]

Transformers 5 and Furious 8 have a chance of beating Beauty and the Beast IMAO. They might not be more successful than Episode VIII but they will make a ton of money in China.

Pirates of the Caribbean 5 might either be a relative failure to what Disney hoped for and prove to be the final nail in the coffin of that franchise, or a pirates swashbuckling film might prove to be refreshing in the context of all the other blockbusters that are being released right now, not to mention that it will probably be very popular overseas like the past installments were.

Aside from Avatar and Avengers, pretty much every active Billion franchise is going to be releasing a heavyweight project (Episode VIII, Transformers, Beauty and the Beast, Pirates, Fast & Furious and Despicable Me 3), while there are a ton of other properties that have the potential of touching those heights (Ragnarok, Guardians of the Galaxy and spider-man).

 

[Erzengel]

The issue with Pirates and Transformers is the lessening domestic totals as others have mentioned. Also, they are slapped in the middle of the Summer season where there's a new "tentpole hopeful" every week. I can't recall a Summer where it's been this densely packed.

 

[Zant]

Marvel takes the crown for 2016, after losing it to Star Wars in 2015.

2017 will be interesting, 3 MCU movies VS Episode 8.

Marvel did not lose any crown to Star Wars in 2015. Age of Ultron did not even finish in the top 3 that year.

Star War will take 2017 but will lose it again to Avengers or Jurassic World 2 in 2018.

 

[JOE]

Marvel did not lose any crown to Star Wars in 2015. Age of Ultron did not even finish in the top 3 that year.

Star War will take 2017 but will lose it again to Avengers or Jurassic World 2 in 2018.

The spin-off films or anthology films will never make as much as the Star Wars films. Ep VIII will take this year's BO crown with ease. No Marvel film will stand up to it, nor do I think DC's Justice League or Wonder Woman will match up either. I'm expecting it to be around 1.5B or more with the nearest completion just passing 1B.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, I just looked it up. Marvel has only "won" twice. 2012 and 2016.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?view2=worldwide&view=releasedate&p=.htm

I assumed 2013, but no it was Frozen apparently.

 

[Lord]

The issue with Pirates and Transformers is the lessening domestic totals as others have mentioned. Also, they are slapped in the middle of the Summer season where there's a new "tentpole hopeful" every week. I can't recall a Summer where it's been this densely packed.

Sure, but the overseas totals just keep getting higher. China is getting stronger as a Market for films. Trnasformers 4 broke records there back in 2014, and it's probable that 5 will break new records too, which now stand as being around 500 million dollars. No matter how bad Last Knight is, it making in least a Billion seems like an eventuality.

I mean, Transformers 4 wasn't exactly a succes in the United States, but overseas it was so popular that it became the highest grossing film of 2014 worldwide. That's no small feat, and i myself wouldn't bet against both of these franchises.

 

[Erzengel]

I'm not sure if the release dates of these are as tight overseas that they are over here but that could also be an issue.

 

[StormC]

I always felt Episode 8 would do Avengers numbers but as Carrie Fisher's last film it might go higher than that. Still don't see it passing say, 1.7-8 billion though.

 

[danoyse]

I saw it again this afternoon, and our show was still almost totally sold out.

 

[GreenKToo]

I've yet to see it. Hoping to this weekend.

 

[AverageMan]

Don't think it has enough left to catch Civil War & I think Disney may be slightly under whelmed by it's overseas business. Domestically though, I think they'll be happy.

 

[Silver Surfer]

No way it catches Civil War now, this race is over. Star Wars brand in markets like China and South Korea needs improvement. It's is lagging behind Marvel in those territories badly.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Don't think it has enough left to catch Civil War & I think Disney may be slightly under whelmed by it's overseas business. Domestically though, I think they'll be happy.

A Star Wars spinoff is the second biggest of 2016 worldwide.

It's safe to say Disney is very happy overall.

Plus The Last Jedi will easily make the all time top 5 both DOM and WW.

 

[Darepool]

I don't see too much disappointment coming from the studio, especially considering neither Civil War or Rogue One were the true heavy hitters of their respective universes, yet still finished #1 and #2 for the year.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I don't see too much disappointment coming from the studio, especially considering neither Civil War or Rogue One were the true heavy hitters of their respective universes, yet still finished #1 and #2 for the year.

I think Disney will be a little disappointed with Civil War domestically, it should have crossed 500 mil.

 

[Darepool]

I think Disney will be a little disappointed with Civil War domestically, it should have crossed 500 mil.

I don't see why, 400 + million for a Cap sequel is great. It had some Avengers in it, but it certainly wasn't an Avengers film per se, or the crowd pleaser that people have come to expect from Whedon's team-up films. It was more grounded and pondering in nature. Plus the fact that AoU didn't quite live up to the first Avengers film so CW didn't have the juice it could have in terms of momentum. Bottom line, it was #1 WW for the year. Amazing achievement for the film.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Yeah, one thing became clear with CW was that the "Avengers" tittle brand still has extra drawing power on top of the characters that make up the Avengers.

I think Marvel made a few mistakes leading up to CW that hurt its box-office. I think them screening the film with basically no embargo a month before the release actually hurt, in-spite of the overwhelmingly positive reviews. The reviews coming out so early meant that the buzz peeked early, and CW didn't head into release full speed.

Another reason I think that had an impact was BvS. After toxic WOM led to massive drops for BvS, a segment of the audience might have been turned off from another super hero rumble movie.

I know, I know, it's the #1 movie of the year and beat out Star Wars no less, but I can't help but feel it could have done better.

 

[rayc1971]

its at 526 domestic dont think it will pass darkknight at 534 domestic at this point

 

[marcvader]

It's at $527,182,968 (estimated, BOM). I'm guessing it has 2-3 mil left in it.

 

[metaphysician]

I don't know, that's close enough Disney might conceivably use some heft to keep it in theaters a little longer, if necessary. Sure, its a minor feather, but a feather anyway.