Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[Lord]

I don't know China is like the one and basicly only place that star wars is not big in and I think they didn't see the OT in China in till years later and saw the PT first I think and that is not a good first impression lol. Not only that but it sounds like over all China is really hard to predict boxoffices for.

Actualy, before Disney, China had only gotten the original trilogy released in some places around 2014. The impression wasn't very positive and you will find weird criticisms they made to the films, like the actors not being pretty enough.

You mention the Prequel trilogy not giving a good first impression to the franchise, but i wish they would have gotten those films back when they were released. Why? Because they're far closer to the taste of chinese audiences. If you see which films have become blockbusters in China, it shows that they apreciate CGI far more than other types of special effects. They enjoy over the top spectacle, they don't have the nostalgic love for pratical effects that the ocidental audience has. Taking all of this into account, i'm actualy surprised the Hobbit trilogy wasn't even bigger there.

Right now, the only way i can really see Star Wars successfuly blowing up in China is if they go back to the over the top duels of the prequels (or of The Old Republic's cinematic trailers), but that's unlikely right now. If James Cameron ever releases Avatar 2, i'm sure that film will have a major edge over the SW franchise in China.

 

[scarlet-witch]

What this puts into perspective for me - even though I knew this already - is just how big of a movie The Dark Knight was. I mean, Rogue One is doing phenomenal business and still may not catch TDK's $534M domestic, and TDK opened 8 years ago with no 3D.

I never realized that. That's amazing (and deserving)

 

[marcvader]

If China doesn't like the new SW films because there's not a bunch of crazy saber duels so be it.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If China doesn't like the new SW films because there's not a bunch of crazy saber duels so be it.

Overall, the Disney Star Wars movies are far more successful than the prequels with or without China.

There's zero reason to pander to them.

Especially if the films become less popular in the US as a result.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Rogue One has done really well outside of China so Disney doesn't really hafta worry about the Intl' BO for the SW franchise.

 

[Silver Surfer]

China is on the cusp of becoming the biggest box office market in the world, ignoring it would be the dumbest thing Disney could do for its long term prospects. Disney will get China on board, one way or another. An Old Republic trilogy with entire armies of Sith and Jedi going at it like in the SW:TOR trailers just might be the thing.

[YT]YdgmH9Vv2-I[/YT]

 

[marcvader]

I don't see Disney turning the Star Wars franchise into a shallow money grab for the sake of China at the expense of its domestic (main fan base) and all other international audience.

 

[Lord]

I doubt Disney will just ask for more CGI in order to make the Chinese audience happier, expecialy since that won't automaticaly make the Chinese audience interested. If i were them, i would just keep casting some known chinese actors and try making the next anthology films more perceptible for new viewers, as it seems like that was one of the main problems that audience has been having with both the Disney Star Wars films.

Btw, i personaly wouldn't mind larger scale lightsaber battles. Anakin vs Obi-Wan became ridiculous, but most of the duels shown in the Old Republic cinematic trailers have been impressive and large scale, without becoming overcoreographed and fake looking.

 

[spiderman2]

Actualy, before Disney, China had only gotten the original trilogy released in some places around 2014. The impression wasn't very positive and you will find weird criticisms they made to the films, like the actors not being pretty enough.

You mention the Prequel trilogy not giving a good first impression to the franchise, but i wish they would have gotten those films back when they were released. Why? Because they're far closer to the taste of chinese audiences. If you see which films have become blockbusters in China, it shows that they apreciate CGI far more than other types of special effects. They enjoy over the top spectacle, they don't have the nostalgic love for pratical effects that the ocidental audience has. Taking all of this into account, i'm actualy surprised the Hobbit trilogy wasn't even bigger there.

Right now, the only way i can really see Star Wars successfuly blowing up in China is if they go back to the over the top duels of the prequels (or of The Old Republic's cinematic trailers), but that's unlikely right now. If James Cameron ever releases Avatar 2, i'm sure that film will have a major edge over the SW franchise in China.

So in China they like bad acting and chessey diealog to lol.

The International Audience is a big reason why The Fore Awakens did what it did in the Box Office & Disney no doubt will wanna repeat that. Disney will react to this & adjust accordingly maybe not with this Trilogy since Episode 8 is done. But no doubt Id expect the next Trilogy after Episode 9 & beyond to have that Prequel trilogy type action & Im guessing Han Solo is also gonna struggle Internationally since no Jedi in that one either they will probably stick Vader in there somewhere though now for sure. Disney simply can not ignore The International Audience

Out side of China TFA did great International so International is not a issue.

Disney can't just ignore The International Audience & they wont in the long run no doubt it will depend on what Episodes 8 & 9 does with where Disney goes next. I imagine if both 8 & 9 can not even make $1 Billion Disney will take notice. Disney has plenty of options moving forward after Episode 9

No way will 8 not make a billion. 8 at worst will be like a 1.6 WW billion movie and most likely 2 billion or more. For episode 9 to not make a billion WW the movie would have to be really really bad.

 

[spiderman2]

I don't see Disney turning the Star Wars franchise into a shallow money grab for the sake of China at the expense of its domestic (main fan base) and all other international audience.

This does it really matter if they are able to start making more in China if the rest of the world starts making less has a result?

 

[Lord]

So in China they like bad acting and chessey diealog to lol.

I only talked about spectacle, never said they would prefer the Prequels for the acting or the dialogue. In fact, for a large part of the audience, seeing a dubbed or subbed version of a film will make bad performances and dialogues stand out less.

 

[Sithborg]

I think it is important as well to point out that while box office is always important, it really is only a drop in the bucket of where the REAL Star Wars money is. Or, the same place where Lucas was able to build his empire.

 

[Sithborg]

I have no idea what in the world you are going on about. The Saga films (Episode #) will continue to be the big event films.

And I have to laugh about using TOR as an example of "expanding" the universe.

 

[Vincanws]

$20M to go to a billion..

 

[spiderman2]

So you guys are cool if all Disney does is just re cast The Original Trilogy & never expands Star Wars & takes it to its full potential ? That is whats gonna end up happening it makes me question how Disney owns Star Wars & MARVEL when at least the MCU takes risks & do different stuff otherwise things would get boring quickly if every single MCU movie took place on Earth. For me as a fan i will personally be disappointed & never support a Star Wars movie again after Episode 9 if all Disney does is just stay in The Original Trilogy Timeline Star Wars is so much bigger than that timeline Disney can take risks with Star Wars as shown with Rogue One

While we will see what happens after 9 but going into 7 I was really worried that 7 was going to suck because of how bad the prequles where and because of not having things like Yoda, Vader etc in the movie any more yet I ended up loving 7 and I think 8 could end up being the best star wars movie yet. I also wonder if after 9 if we may get some of the cast back from 7-9 for 10 or something like say have Rey back kind of like how we had Leia, Solo, luke after 4-6 type of thing.

 

[Breogan]

Dn't know if this was significant, Rogue One Takes Top Spot In 2016 Domestic Grosses
Posted by Dustin on January 14, 2017 at 12:19 PM CST - http://theforce.net/story/front/Rogue_One_Takes_Top_Spot_In_2016_Domestic_Grosses_172172.asp

 

[marcvader]

Already passed $500 mil domestic.

 

[rayc1971]

Does anyone think RO beats The Avengers domestic total? I am predicting RO stops short of The Avengers. It has a chance to beat $600 million. Not sure if it will have the momentum to surpass TA however.

its not getting 600 mill domestic

 

[Iceman]

Predicted about $1B for this. Did a bit better than I expected domestically though. Amazing numbers for a spinoff.

 

[Erzengel]

It's still mind blowing. Another $1B movie for Disney. 4 movies last year greater than a $1B. If you total all of them including JB, yes it goes into 2017 but over $5B. It's still an achievement.

 

[Iceman]

It's still mind blowing. Another $1B movie for Disney. 4 movies last year greater than a $1B. If you total all of them including JB, yes it goes into 2017 but over $5B. It's still an achievement.

And it's not like that these are series that come to an end and then the studio has to go on the hunt for the next big franchise. Both the MCU and SWU are now stronger than ever with the prospect of more record breakers in the next few years and no need for this momentum to die down any time soon if the franchises continue to be handled well. Utilising succesful open-ended universes which can keep going long term, supporting multiple series of films within them is a great strategy.

 

[Lord]

Any prospects of it surpassing Civil War or will Rogue One most likely finish as the #2 highest grossing film of 2016?

 

[rashad]

Any prospects of it surpassing Civil War or will Rogue One most likely finish as the #2 highest grossing film of 2016?

China was it's last market. It's not passing CW worldwide at this stage.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Marvel takes the crown for 2016, after losing it to Star Wars in 2015.

2017 will be interesting, 3 MCU movies VS Episode 8.

 

[Pennywise]

Awesome news!!!!