Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[Iceman]

I'm very impressed with this SW resurgence. TFA smashes records all over the place and now even the spinoff is doing numbers that any other franchise would be happy with for a core series (equivalent to Episode) film.

 

[Timebomb]

I wonder if Carrie's death will affect the BO. I know I want to go see it again just because I feel I need to do something.

 

[Xrated48]

I wonder if Carrie's death will affect the BO. I know I want to go see it again just because I feel I need to do something.

I feel the same but I think it will affect episode 8 box office more since she's actually in the film.

 

[spiderman2]

So I have not been on this thread for a week or so. I have a few questions about this. So what is like the max this movie is looking like it will end up making both WW and USA? What is like the worst? Also any ideas of how much money it can make in China? I am really wondering how this movie is going to compare to 7 when it comes to china and if Disney can find a way for 8 to make more in china has china was the one place where 8 could maybe go way up has it didn't do that great in china.

 

[Sithborg]

The dollar is a bit stronger than the yuan at this point, so that will take a bit of a hit on the take. A lot of it depends on how well Disney has marketed this. It helps to have two prominent Chinese actors, I think.

You also have to remember, that Force Awakens was China's first Star Wars movie, so it takes time for it to integrate into their culture.

 

[writer0327]

How often are the foreign numbers updated? I'm looking at Box Office Mojo and most of the foreign countries they have listed are updated as of 12/18, which means they are missing over a week's worth of data.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Still on track for 525-550 m.

Raising this to 530 to 570 m.

 

[InCali]

So I have not been on this thread for a week or so. I have a few questions about this. So what is like the max this movie is looking like it will end up making both WW and USA? What is like the worst? Also any ideas of how much money it can make in China? I am really wondering how this movie is going to compare to 7 when it comes to china and if Disney can find a way for 8 to make more in china has china was the one place where 8 could maybe go way up has it didn't do that great in china.

My guess is that it could easily to Avengers kind of money. it sounds kind of weird, but I do think that Carrie's death (God, I even hate writing that) will drive up Ep 8 numbers somewhat. It's really our last chance to see her and say goodbye.

EDIT: I don't think there are going to be a lot of dry eyes after the end of Ep 8.

 

[Sithborg]

How often are the foreign numbers updated? I'm looking at Box Office Mojo and most of the foreign countries they have listed are updated as of 12/18, which means they are missing over a week's worth of data.

They tend to update weekly, though certain countries are a bit less reliable. The holiday likely screwed up their timing as well.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

With a 30% drop from it's Monday number, Rogue One is looking at 22.4 million on Tuesday.

 

[Sithborg]

And now the holiday legs kick in.

 

[Erzengel]

I wish the foreign numbers would be updated.

 

[BH/HHH]

How is it doing at this point compared to TFA?

 

[Iceman]

That Monday number was lovely! It's a shame to have to talk about it but Carrie will have an effect on the legs for this and also on Episode VIII.

 

[Erzengel]

How is it doing at this point compared to TFA?

Not as well? But TFA is such a high level.

Still it looks like Rogue One will hit $400M this weekend and it looks good for $500+ will still put at Top 6 all time domestically.

 

[Sithborg]

The Christmas Sunday sort of throws comparisons out of whack, imo.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/814156832453361666

Gitesh Pandya
@GiteshPandya

#RogueOne broke $600M global TUE w/ $42.2M. $22.5M dom, $19.7M intl. Totals now $340.6M dom, $615.9M worldwide. Shd pass $700M THU.

 

[JB33]

The Christmas Sunday sort of throws comparisons out of whack, imo.

The Christmas weekend in general. Put it this way: Rogue One could actually gross MORE in its 2nd Monday-Thursday frame and 3rd weekend than it did in its initial Monday-Thursday frame and 2nd weekend. It really depends on the 3rd weekend drop, but sifting through Box Office Theory it seems people don't anticipate much of a drop at all. We're talking potentially a 55M+ 3rd weekend.

 

[JB33]

Not as well? But TFA is such a high level.

Still it looks like Rogue One will hit $400M this weekend and it looks good for $500+ will still put at Top 6 all time domestically.

Not in terms of total dollars obviously but legs-wise it looks like they could actually end up pretty close.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

With TFA legs RO makes 587 m DOM.

I think it will make between 530 and 570 m which is still really impressive.

 

[Iceman]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/814156832453361666

Nice to pass 600 and be on the way to passing 700. Will be interesting to see where it ends up after the New Year's Day holiday. (I'm seeing it that day)

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/814519825603133440

Gitesh Pandya
@GiteshPandya

$18M dom WED for #RogueOne for $358.6M cume. Today it passes #Deadpool, #JungleBook & #SecretLifeOfPets to become #3 dom hit of 2016.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Nice to pass 600 and be on the way to passing 700. Will be interesting to see where it ends up after the New Year's Day holiday. (I'm seeing it that day)

I hope you enjoy the movie.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://***********/ERCboxoffice/status/814520162539819008

Exhibitor Relations
@ERCboxoffice

STAR WARS: ROGUE ONE daily docket: $358.6M (domestic), $295.2M (international), $653.8M (worldwide).

 

[Iceman]

I hope you enjoy the movie.

Thanks! Can't believe it's taken me this long to arrange to see it. Xmas got in the way!