Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[Blitzkrieg]

http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-monday-box-office-records-disney-1201873817/

According to early morning industry estimates, Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story grossed $17.7M yesterday, the fourth best for that day of the week in December, and during the post July period.

 

[JB33]

Much lower Monday than I had thought, but still big.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah, with Christmas on a Sun, a lot of schools will still be in for the early part of the week.

 

[j0ke5ta]

Schools here don't get off till Thursday. Seems like a lot of schools doing that this year so kids not out of school as early as normal around this time of the year.

I think with both Christmas Eve/Christmas and New Years Eve/ New Years falling on Saturday and Sunday the next two weeks might hurt the weekend numbers for both weeks also.

Might see better numbers throughout the week then the weekends once the kids get out of school and people start hitting their holiday vacations.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah, a bit of an extra drop over the weekends, but there will be great holds on Monday, so it will balance out. Still should be able to be over $300 million after Sun.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Variety says Rogue One is tracking for a $125m holiday weekend. Damn.

 

[JB33]

Variety says Rogue One is tracking for a $125m holiday weekend. Damn.

What??? No way.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

That has to include Monday, right? Otherwise a lot of people are waiting a week to see it. That would be staggering if true. Would all but guarantee a 500m domestic pull as well.

 

[JB33]

That has to include Monday, right? Otherwise a lot of people are waiting a week to see it. That would be staggering if true. Would all but guarantee a 500m domestic pull as well.

It would be insane. A Force Awakens-like 2nd weekend drop would give it $93.36M over its 2nd weekend, which itself would be great.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah, that has to include some extra days in there. Wed-Sun?

 

[JB33]

This is the quote from the Variety article:

It should add another $125 million to its domestic haul over the holiday stretch.

I don't know what the author's definition of "holiday stretch is", though, but he's definitely not talking about the weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This is the quote from the Variety article:



I don't know what the author's definition of "holiday stretch is", though, but he's definitely not talking about the weekend.

I think that has to be a 4 day weekend. Christmas day is huge and people are expecting Monday to also be very big next week.

 

[Erzengel]

Christmas is observed on Monday. So possibly over $330-350 by the end of next Monday?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Christmas is observed on Monday. So possibly over $330-350 by the end of next Monday?

That makes much more sense.

 

[JB33]

Deadline reports roughly the same gross for Tuesday as Monday:
http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-passengers-assassins-creed-sing-tuesday-box-office-1201874410/

 

[JB33]

$17.58M for Rogue One on Tuesday:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

That ranks as the 12th biggest Tuesday gross ever, and the 9th biggest non-opening Tuesday gross.

 

[Erzengel]

Deadline is estimating $15.5M for Wednesday. Sing is $11M. Assassin's Creed is $4.5M and Passengers $4M.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah, Assassin's Creed and Passengers are not going to be speed bumps.

I'm seeing people talk about 6 day weekend (Wed-Mon), which is where the super high numbers come from, I guess. (Except for Assassin's Creed, talking about a $20 mil 6 day, lol)

 

[sueb1863]

Sing is at 69% on RT right now. It'll probably still rake in the bucks.

Assassin's Creed is at 18%. O_O

 

[JB33]

$14.97M for Rogue One on Wednesday:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

So what are we looking at for RO's 6-day (Wed to Mon)?

125 m?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So what are we looking at for RO's 6-day (Wed to Mon)?

125 m?

It is suppose to a 100m four day, with this Wed and Thurs coming in at around 31m.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If we can hit at least 415 m by January 2nd then 550 DOM will be looking good.

 

[Sithborg]

Looks like 16.7 for Thur, kids definitely getting out of school.

 

[JB33]

Looks like 16.7 for Thur, kids definitely getting out of school.

Yep, $16.77M on Thursday (per BoxOffice Pro twitter):

ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY made $16.77M Thursday, for $221.99M total through its first week. #RogueOne

The reason for it is obvious (school's out), but it's still cool to see the rare occasion that the Thursday gross shoots back up. Thursdays are almost always the lowest grossing days of the week as the gross slowly trends down from Monday.

By the way, that number is the 5th biggest Thursday gross for a film outside its opening 2 days of release (aka movies that didn't open either on that day or Wednesday) behind The Force Awakens (7th day of release), The Force Awakens again (14th day of release), Jurassic World (7th day of release) and Finding Dory (7th day of release).