Shazam Shazam! Box Office Thread | Early Predictions

[Greenlite]

I feel that way, too,
Nothing to worry about now, so, anything it makes from this point is GRAVY!

Gee I thought my account was hacked for a second

 

[TheUndertaker]

I think people are overly sensitive about this movie and any talk of disappointing box office is totally dismissed cuz of the smaller budget--- but the audience doesn't know that the budget is smaller to them this is just another comic action packed movie and on that front this one came up short. Its the lowest opening gross of any DC movie and when its said and done, while it will 100% be profitable, the audiences didn't turn up in droves for this and support like most of us thought.

Just look at the poll up top! Almost 60% of us said this movie was gonna do over 700 million globally. That poll is a true measure of our collective expectations for this. Now people are having an about face and saying they never expected this movie to do those kinds of numbers.

And lastly seeing that only 60% of adults would reccomend this movie is perfectly aligned with my earlier thoughts that this movie is aimed at kids and personally I would NOT reccomend it to anyone over the age of 16, now on the other hand, I would highly recommend this to the kiddies!

Sure, it's a disappointment compared to our expectations (not only ours but some people in the media who believed this could do much better as well). But the thing is, our expectations don't matter. Nobody here, unless they are shareholders at WB, will get any money out of it if it makes 400M or 700M. So it only needs to meet WB's expectations. And everything indicates WB knew this movie would land where it's landing. If they wanted 700M, they would have promoted the movie more, and possibly change the release date.
And the real problem with the "talk about disappointing box office" is that some people are treating it as a flop, or not meeting WB's expectations, and saying its performance doesn't sustain a franchise. That's what most people get in arms about.

Basically the inverse happened to Man of Steel. It was a profitable movie but for some reason WB's expectations were in fact to top 1 billion. When that didn't happen, they changed everything and we still don't have MoS 2. Since they're already confirming a script for Shazam 2 to be developed, so far it's meeting and even exceeding their expectations. Of course that could change if the movie turn out to stop making money, but it's on course to be very successful for them.

 

[Erzengel]

MOS made $668M on a $225M budget. Yes profitable but barely.

 

[Micromind]

Roc

And lastly seeing that only 60% of adults would reccomend this movie is perfectly aligned with my earlier thoughts that this movie is aimed at kids and personally I would NOT reccomend it to anyone over the age of 16, now on the other hand, I would highly recommend this to the kiddies!

I beg to differ, Shazam movie is a movie for all ages, it's a family movie, not just a kids movie, like Spy Kids or The Adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl.

 

[TheUndertaker]

Shazam has the same overall tone as the first 3 Harry Potter movies, but more pedestrian and less fantasy

 

[TheUndertaker]

Luckly I was just checking his twitter profile and he updated it
Great tuesday increase


Comparing to the movies we were mentioning yesterday

- Ralph Breaks the Internet: +43.7%
- Boss Baby: +41.8%
- Jungle Book: +27.6%
- Winter Soldier: +12.2%

 

[Limonade]

Sure, it's a disappointment compared to our expectations (not only ours but some people in the media who believed this could do much better as well). But the thing is, our expectations don't matter. Nobody here, unless they are shareholders at WB, will get any money out of it if it makes 400M or 700M. So it only needs to meet WB's expectations. And everything indicates WB knew this movie would land where it's landing. If they wanted 700M, they would have promoted the movie more, and possibly change the release date.
And the real problem with the "talk about disappointing box office" is that some people are treating it as a flop, or not meeting WB's expectations, and saying its performance doesn't sustain a franchise. That's what most people get in arms about.

Basically the inverse happened to Man of Steel. It was a profitable movie but for some reason WB's expectations were in fact to top 1 billion. When that didn't happen, they changed everything and we still don't have MoS 2. Since they're already confirming a script for Shazam 2 to be developed, so far it's meeting and even exceeding their expectations. Of course that could change if the movie turn out to stop making money, but it's on course to be very successful for them.

Heck, I'm definitely disappointed. Plus, WB always low bar their movies, when it comes to early estimates, so they have something newsworthy to put out in case it beats expectations. When the movie hits its projection it's still good... but definitely not great.

This movie--given a less competitive schedule would have hit 800m. Aquaman didn't have much competition after it's release and it made a billion.

That said, it's great that WB understands the landscape of the films release and is greenlighting the sequel.

 

[Predator jp]

WB green lit the sequel already so that's all it matters when it comes to box office numbers.

 

[TheUndertaker]

Heck, I'm definitely disappointed. Plus, WB always low bar their movies, when it comes to early estimates, so they have something newsworthy to put out in case it beats expectations. When the movie hits its projection it's still good... but definitely not great.

This movie--given a less competitive schedule would have hit 800m. Aquaman didn't have much competition after it's release and it made a billion.

That said, it's great that WB understands the landscape of the films release and is greenlighting the sequel.

Their estimatives were 40-45 million. They already put out news about how it exceeded their expectations.
And again, if you take out China, it also exceeded expectations overseas.

 

[Mysteryman]

Luckly I was just checking his twitter profile and he updated it
Great tuesday increase


Comparing to the movies we were mentioning yesterday

- Ralph Breaks the Internet: +43.7%
- Boss Baby: +41.8%
- Jungle Book: +27.6%
- Winter Soldier: +12.2%

You just gotta love Discount Tuesday!

 

[Limonade]

Their estimatives were 40-45 million. They already put out news about how it exceeded their expectations.
And again, if you take out China, it also exceeded expectations overseas.

Yeah... but let's also not try to take anything out though because some people are still looking it as a "Win is a win."

However, it's good to voice disappointment--knowing that sometimes our predictions are wrong. We're human, we have a wide range of emotion. I wouldn't try to make people feel wrong for feeling disappointed.

This whole keep your chin up and it's really not that bad, is good. But the landscape of it's own release prevented it from achieving it's true potential. We know this movie is good and that the cards this time was stacked against it... that's probably where my frustration lies. DC goodwill tour of films could have continued Box Office wise that had started with Aquaman.

It sucks that it couldn't have made more money for a bigger budget and more spectacle... but yeah, I'm happy it did well enough for a sequel.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

First, yup, nice Tuesday bump.

Second, as to the question why it won’t make 500, 600, 700 million like other solo origin CBMs normally do, the biggest reason is the overseas take, or rather lack thereof.

Shazam failed to click with Chinese audiences and looks like it won’t even reach $40 million if the China-watchers over at BOT are right. Elsewhere around the world, Shazam appears to have been largely dumped with little to no support by WB. BOT’s international forum is filled with reports from Spain, Germany, France and India among others about how there wasn’t any advertising or promotion before the movie came out, that it’s in fewer theaters than other CBMs and that there are no or limited 3D shows.

In short, WB/NL appear to have given up on Shazam internationally before it even came out and instead focused on spending the absolute minimum possible to get it out. Which means it’s OS take is going to be anemic and it’s overall gross lower. But apparently the studios are fine with it so...shrug?

 

[Mysteryman]

Their estimatives were 40-45 million. They already put out news about how it exceeded their expectations.
And again, if you take out China, it also exceeded expectat

Yeah... but let's also not try to take anything out though because some people are still looking it as a "Win is a win."

However, it's good to voice disappointment--knowing that sometimes our predictions are wrong. We're human, we have a wide range of emotion. I wouldn't try to make people feel wrong for feeling disappointed.

This whole keep your chin up and it's really not that bad, is good. But the landscape of it's own release prevented it from achieving it's true potential. We know this movie is good and that the cards this time was stacked against it... that's probably where my frustration lies. DC goodwill tour of films could have continued Box Office wise that had started with Aquaman.

Essentially, that good will tour continued, just a tad lower this time.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Here in the UK, we are very good at sweeping up the 'shortfall' for the DCEU, I see this occasion being no different.

 

[Micromind]

In my country, there are more advertisements for "Dumbo" and "Hellboy" than Shazam, nevertheless, I'm going to see it second time soon.

 

[TheUndertaker]

It's not every country though. Here in Brazil (where it's doing well) I saw ads on bus stops, on TV, and on subways (on the few that we have) Definitely more marketed than Dumbo, and Hellboy is a non presence.

I also think it suffered even more in China due to the release of that chinese action movie. It could have done a little better without it.

Also, the ratio is 35/65 which is pretty normal for a superhero movie, so I don't think "WB abandoned it overseas and focused on domestic". It's just playing lower than modern superhero movies on both.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It's not every country though. Here in Brazil (where it's doing well) I saw ads on bus stops, on TV, and on subways (on the few that we have) Definitely more marketed than Dumbo, and Hellboy is a non presence.

I also think it suffered even more in China due to the release of that chinese action movie. It could have done a little better without it.

Also, the ratio is 35/65 which is pretty normal for a superhero movie, so I don't think "WB abandoned it overseas and focused on domestic". It's just playing lower than modern superhero movies on both.

Yeah, there are a handful of markets like Brazil where it appears to have gotten some support. I don’t know whether that was WB cherry-picking certain places it thought it would do well or the local distributor putting in some cash. Glad to hear it’s doing well! As to the ratio my bet is that the domestic share will rise. We’ll see.

 

[dhandler01]

I think people are overly sensitive about this movie and any talk of disappointing box office is totally dismissed cuz of the smaller budget--- but the audience doesn't know that the budget is smaller to them this is just another comic action packed movie and on that front this one came up short. Its the lowest opening gross of any DC movie and when its said and done, while it will 100% be profitable, the audiences didn't turn up in droves for this and support like most of us thought.

Just look at the poll up top! Almost 60% of us said this movie was gonna do over 700 million globally. That poll is a true measure of our collective expectations for this. Now people are having an about face and saying they never expected this movie to do those kinds of numbers.

And lastly seeing that only 60% of adults would reccomend this movie is perfectly aligned with my earlier thoughts that this movie is aimed at kids and personally I would NOT reccomend it to anyone over the age of 16, now on the other hand, I would highly recommend this to the kiddies!

So because a bunch of randos on a message board were wrong about how much a movie would make that proves something? The same fans thought Aquaman would make $600 million they were wrong then too.

I said $500 and I admit I will probably be wrong. I am not sensitive about it I overestimated. That doesnt mean the film is failing it means I was wrong.

 

[dhandler01]

First, yup, nice Tuesday bump.

Second, as to the question why it won’t make 500, 600, 700 million like other solo origin CBMs normally do, the biggest reason is the overseas take, or rather lack thereof.

Shazam failed to click with Chinese audiences and looks like it won’t even reach $40 million if the China-watchers over at BOT are right. Elsewhere around the world, Shazam appears to have been largely dumped with little to no support by WB. BOT’s international forum is filled with reports from Spain, Germany, France and India among others about how there wasn’t any advertising or promotion before the movie came out, that it’s in fewer theaters than other CBMs and that there are no or limited 3D shows.

In short, WB/NL appear to have given up on Shazam internationally before it even came out and instead focused on spending the absolute minimum possible to get it out. Which means it’s OS take is going to be anemic and it’s overall gross lower. But apparently the studios are fine with it so...shrug?

I am guessing they had a reason behind it. They usually rely heavily on international takes. Maybe they tested it and the screenings didnt do well or something.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

Sure, it's a disappointment compared to our expectations (not only ours but some people in the media who believed this could do much better as well). But the thing is, our expectations don't matter. Nobody here, unless they are shareholders at WB, will get any money out of it if it makes 400M or 700M. So it only needs to meet WB's expectations. And everything indicates WB knew this movie would land where it's landing. If they wanted 700M, they would have promoted the movie more, and possibly change the release date.
And the real problem with the "talk about disappointing box office" is that some people are treating it as a flop, or not meeting WB's expectations, and saying its performance doesn't sustain a franchise. That's what most people get in arms about.

Basically the inverse happened to Man of Steel. It was a profitable movie but for some reason WB's expectations were in fact to top 1 billion. When that didn't happen, they changed everything and we still don't have MoS 2. Since they're already confirming a script for Shazam 2 to be developed, so far it's meeting and even exceeding their expectations. Of course that could change if the movie turn out to stop making money, but it's on course to be very successful for them.

Fair points-- especially when you talk about how some people treat it like a flop based on it not meeting expectations, completely agree how ridiculous that is. I guess the only point you make that I push back a little is on how our expectations don't matter. People collectively make up the zeitgeist and if the overall feeling amongst fans is that this didn't perform as well that could have a negative impact (I know that's not the prevailing opinion of this movie, just giving an example of how it could matter). Also if it's not seen as something you have to rush to see right away that can be negative too-- and I'll also add that people like us who invest so much time into this world it kinda does matter to us. Sure it won't impact our lives one way or the other, but on a level of us having an attachement to the brands and our levels of interest probably being higher than the general public- we do care and on a fun surface level it can matter to us. A win for Marvel and DC is really a win for all the hardcore fans.

 

[brandeezy89]

I am guessing they had a reason behind it. They usually rely heavily on international takes. Maybe they tested it and the screenings didnt do well or something.

This is the reason in China according to a Chinese BOT user. He said they screened it to WB's marketing partners and it didn't test well with them so they cut back on ad spending.

 

[8ulk87]

I saw the movie last night.
I liked it. Perfectly enjoyable fun ride at the movies.
Liked it more than Captain Marvel but its not as good as Aquaman imho.
I really dont get the lowish boxoffice numbers.

 

[dhandler01]

This is the reason in China according to a Chinese BOT user. He said they screened it to WB's marketing partners and it didn't test well with them so they cut back on ad spending.

Cool thank you

 

[Mysteryman]

I saw the movie last night.
I liked it. Perfectly enjoyable fun ride at the movies.
Liked it more than Captain Marvel but its not as good as Aquaman imho.
I really dont get the lowish boxoffice numbers.

IMO, Shazam did pretty good for a character that the general public doesn’t know that well.

 

[Erzengel]

Even after three 1B+ movies, Ant-Man only had 180.2/519.3 BO.