Shazam Shazam! Box Office Thread | Early Predictions

[SomeOldGuy]

Friday & Saturday in Japan, per corpse. Still two days in Golden Week to go.

¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +99%, ¥610,000,000 ($5.4 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 15
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), -13%, ¥635,000,000 ($5.6 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 16

 

[TheUndertaker]

The loss of theaters IS playing a big part. If you look at the average per theater numbers, the thursday to friday increase is 194% whereas last week when it lost 552 theaters the increase was 181%
In actual dollars, the thursday to friday increase last week was 144%, but yesterday it was just 105%

Rampage only lost 1,082 theaters on its 6th weekend and when that happened it dropped over 54%

 

[writer0327]

The loss of theaters IS playing a big part. If you look at the average per theater numbers, the thursday to friday increase is 194% whereas last week when it lost 552 theaters the increase was 181%
In actual dollars, the thursday to friday increase last week was 144%, but yesterday it was just 105%

Rampage only lost 1,082 theaters on its 6th weekend and when that happened it dropped over 54%

Yeah Endgame hit this film hard. But the reality of the release date was always that Shazam had a 3 week run up and then it was gonna get capped at the knees.

 

[Jonwo]

Warner should have released it around the beginning of June. I believe it would have done better overseas as well as a summer film.

The problem with June is that it would have meant facing X-Men Dark Phoenix, MIB International and Toy Story 4. WB probably looked at the calendar and realised there wasn't many options to move it.

I imagine for Black Adam and Shazam 2, they'll take more consideration. Luckily we probably won't have something as big as Endgame for at least a decade. I'd say October 2021 for Black Adam and either February, May or June 2022 for Shazam 2.

Eh, it’s still got the fifth-most domestic screens of any film so I don’t think that adds up, though it might play a part. It’s early but it looks like almost every movie is underperforming expectations this weekend, even Endgame. We might just be seeing a hangover effect after last week’s giant opening. Rough for Shazam in any event though.

Big difference between this weekend and the same weekend last year is the number of new releases, last year, the new releases had less than 2000 screens each whereas this year, Long Shot, Uglydolls have 3000+ screens and The Intruders had over 2000 screens so it's no surprise that Shazam lost screens.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

The Intruder had 300 fewer screens than Shazam and made $10 million. The problem isn’t that people can’t find Shazam, the problem is they ain’t going. Might just be Endgame’s ridiculous dominance of showtimes. My daughter and I went to see it yesterday and it’s still got 25+ screenings at my local Cinemark. Parking lot was packed, but we literally just walked up to an empty ticket window, bought tickets, walked up to an empty concession counter — we were the only people in the lobby! — for snacks and just wandered into the next showing that was starting. There were maybe 30 people. I expect they will cut showtimes back to something like normal next weekend. Be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

 

[Micromind]

So, now the number of screens are 2,521.

 

[Micromind]

 

[Micromind]

So at Worldwide $355.6 M, it has passed (Unadjusted)

Dumbo ($330 M),
Mary Poppins Returns ($349.4M),
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms-2018 ($174 M)
The Incredible Hulk ($263.4M)
X-Men:First Class ($353.6 M)
The Mask ($351.5 M)
Tomb Raider-2018 ($274.6M)

 

[Mandon Knight]

Profit...…

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=untitledmovieiv.htm

 

[TheUndertaker]

The Intruder had 300 fewer screens than Shazam and made $10 million. The problem isn’t that people can’t find Shazam, the problem is they ain’t going. Might just be Endgame’s ridiculous dominance of showtimes. My daughter and I went to see it yesterday and it’s still got 25+ screenings at my local Cinemark. Parking lot was packed, but we literally just walked up to an empty ticket window, bought tickets, walked up to an empty concession counter — we were the only people in the lobby! — for snacks and just wandered into the next showing that was starting. There were maybe 30 people. I expect they will cut showtimes back to something like normal next weekend. Be interesting to see what happens.

A new movie will sell more tickets obviously. But by keeping more theaters people will go to those theaters at least close to the same rate as the current average. The 2,500 theaters it has now are not filling up either. If there are theaters around people then they will go. Not gonna fill it up, but they'll go around the same average as the rest.
The actual drop of 55% is VERY close to Rampage's drop when it lost 1,082 theaters in its 6th weekend. It's not a coincidence.
And the average per theater drop for Shazam was 35%. Had it lost much less theaters it would probably drop around 40% which was the most balanced prediction. And no other movie lost as many theaters as Shazam this weekend, not even close.
Anyway, this time Box Office Mojo ended up being the closest, they predicted 2.4M

 

[Micromind]

I'm lot more confident in saying that Shazam will end it's run close to $365 M. Which is great considering it's low budget of $98 M. (3.72 multiplier)

I read somewhere that Initially, Shazam was given $80 M budget, then it was given additional $18 M for reshoots, so it's budget became ($80 + $18) M = $98 M. (But Box Office Mojo lists it at $100 M, which I think is a bit inaccurate)

 

[frankgutz]

I saw it yesterday with my 5 yrs old niece, she didnt got scared, saw it like a champ! i think she felt more scared for Sivana than the actual sins dfnldsnlsd

 

[Johnglen]

I'm lot more confident in saying that Shazam will end it's run close to $365 M. Which is great considering it's low budget of $98 M. (3.72 multiplier)

I read somewhere that Initially, Shazam was given $80 M budget, then it was given additional $18 M for reshoots, so it's budget became ($80 + $18) M = $98 M. (But Box Office Mojo lists it at $100 M, which I think is a bit inaccurate)

The actual budget is much higher when adding marketing. The mummy ended with 410 million worldwide on an 125 million production budget and caused Universal to cancel the entire dark universe. Shazam will, probably, get a sequel but it will not be profitable from its box office gross and will have to wait for the home market to bring in some kind of profit.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Its been confirmed that anything above $350m is a profit for the film, however one wishes to break up the maths which create such a scenario.

 

[Micromind]

The Mummy was a poor movie to start Dark Universe, the reason for cancelling DU was not just B.O but movie's overall reception.

B- Cinemascore, 16 % RT rating coupled with just $80 M in US with a budget of $125 M.

 

[Micromind]

The Mummy must have had a bigger advertising budget compared to Shazam as I remember they had lot more tv spots and ads.

So not quite comparable to Shazam.

 

[Johnglen]

The Mummy was a poor movie to start Dark Universe, the reason for cancelling DU was not just B.O but movie's overall reception.

B- Cinemascore, 16 % RT rating coupled with just $80 M in US with a budget of $125 M.

Of course it was box office and ONLY box office. Believe me had the mummy done, say 600 million worldwide (not an insane number) , Universal would have a new dark universe film ready for release at the upcoming summer. I didn’t see the bad reviews cancelling transformers, F&F e,t.c

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Its been confirmed that anything above $350m is a profit for the film, however one wishes to break up the maths which create such a scenario.

It was likely profitable earlier than 350, but as i know you know, all such calculations are purely for fun. New Line (owned by Warner Media) is making money on Shazam. WB domestic and international distribution (owned by Warner Media) are making money on Shazam. TBS (owned by Warner Media) was paid millions by WB (owned by Warner Media) to run ads for Shazam. And on and on. I have little doubt all concerned are happy with how the film did.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

I'm lot more confident in saying that Shazam will end it's run close to $365 M. Which is great considering it's low budget of $98 M. (3.72 multiplier)

I read somewhere that Initially, Shazam was given $80 M budget, then it was given additional $18 M for reshoots, so it's budget became ($80 + $18) M = $98 M. (But Box Office Mojo lists it at $100 M, which I think is a bit inaccurate)

So we trust u based on what u read hear and there never mind u have noto revealed a single checkable source-- and we should ignore the company who's sole business is box office receipts...

 

[frankgutz]

New Line, a small studio from WB, vs Universal a big studio

Also yall forget the OP, since the OP we were worried about Shazam! being sandwiched by CM and Endgame and yet some: "I nEvEr ThOuGhT eNdGaMe WoUlD oBlIeRaTe ShAzAm!", seriously? what would yall think it would happen with Shazam! being few weeks before Endgame lmao, did u expected Endgmae to make 500M to give room to Shazam! or just yall trolling to see who falls in the flamebait ****? lol

 

[Limonade]

New Line, a small studio from WB, vs Universal a big studio

Also yall forget the OP, since the OP we were worried about Shazam! being sandwiched by CM and Endgame and yet some: "I nEvEr ThOuGhT eNdGaMe WoUlD oBlIeRaTe ShAzAm!", seriously? what would yall think it would happen with Shazam! being few weeks before Endgame lmao, did u expected Endgmae to make 500M to give room to Shazam! or just yall trolling to see who falls in the flamebait ****? lol

Well we expected Shazam to overperform and connect with audience. Seeing how Aquaman performed... we thought general audiences were ready for this movie.

In hindsight, we thought wrong.

 

[Jonwo]

Shazam's numbers make you realise how poorly Dumbo has done in comparison.

In regard to The Mummy, that had awful reviews and poor legs.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Shazam's numbers make you realise how poorly Dumbo has done in comparison.

To be only just over $100m domestically is shocking for a film with that reputation and expectation. Dumbo I mean.

 

[Jonwo]

To be only just over $100m domestically is shocking for a film with that reputation and expectation. Dumbo I mean.

Dumbo's done a bit better OS but I suspect that's more due to the lack of family film but even then the gap between it and Shazam is only $9m and also it had a week's head start.