Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[chaseter]

I was two in 1980. You're old.

I wasn't even a thought in my parent's mind yet...you are all old.

 

[hatebox]

This is going to have massive drop offs. Even X2 did, and that was very well received.

 

[Timstuff]

My official prediction for this movie's weekend gross is 65 million. We'll see how accurate I am (or am not) tomorrow.

 

[X-Maniac]

My official prediction for this movie's weekend gross is 65 million. We'll see how accurate I am (or am not) tomorrow.

It's already at $87million. Where have you been?

 

[Downhere]

My official prediction for this movie's weekend gross is 65 million. We'll see how accurate I am (or am not) tomorrow.

Uhh...like it was said above, estimates are at 87 million. Could be a mil or two less or a mil or two more...but it's way above your prediction.

 

[Spider-Vader]

I wasn't even a thought in my parent's mind yet...you are all old.

Ditto.

Next weekend will be an interesting one. The word of mouth for Star Trek is good, but the franchise isn't really popular anymore with the general audience. It'll either be the rebirth of that franchise or the death of it for a while.

This is the Star Wars fan in me talking.

 

[night0205]

I'm going to make an estimate of 87 million...we'll see how close i am

 

[night0205]

Yeah, I'm glad star wars movies are over...my goodness....if you fans feel about these movies the way I feel about the star wars movies...then I understand all to well. Star Trek looks good, how much money it makes is a different story. And we will see how wolverine does...I really have no idea...could fail, could do really well. Next week will tell.

 

[Theweepeople]

Uhh...like it was said above, estimates are at 87 million. Could be a mil or two less or a mil or two more...but it's way above your prediction.

His point is he obviously believes the movie will make much less than 87mil. Comingsoon.net was at least 15million off with their prediction of Watchmen so the estimates for this could be off by a lot. I personally don't think boxofficemojo's prediction will be off by more than 6million. I see wolverine making 81-87million by monday.

 

[night0205]

...well considering everyone expected watchmen to make a lot more money, and wolverine to make a lot less money, I don't think it will be off that much. but we will see. If it keeps the 87...that's pretty good, even if it does drop off the face of the earth.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I predicted 90mil for the movie so I was unfortunately pretty much dead on. F**ked up on the days though.

The movie still has no chance of having good legs and was always going to have a huge opening so no surprise here. A surprise would be the movie have the same multiplier of X3.

StarTrek or no I think that this movie is dropping hard next weekend...over 63%. Without any weekday numbers I'm thinking 67%.

I seriously doubt that sunday projection is correct so I expect it to have actually made 85ishmil.

 

[night0205]

I had a question about fox...they did dragonball...which I didn't even know was out...hasn't even made 9M yet...but my question is I've been hearing that the budget has been as low as 40M and as high as 120M...??? 0_o I just was wondering how much Fox is in the hole?

Alright looking into it a little...fox actually might have an ok year. They have Night of the Museum 2, Ice Age 3, and Avatar...all coming 2009...so...they will probably do ok money wise, which is kind of a bad thing. And Avatar might kill!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Sigh.

Unless this movie drops 75 to 80% next weekend expect another *yawn* Wolverine/X-Men film.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

StarTrek or no I think that this movie is dropping hard next weekend...over 63%. Without any weekday numbers I'm thinking 67%.

I could honestly see it drop as much as 70% by next weekend.

 

[Downhere]

His point is he obviously believes the movie will make much less than 87mil. Comingsoon.net was at least 15million off with their prediction of Watchmen so the estimates for this could be off by a lot. I personally don't think boxofficemojo's prediction will be off by more than 6million. I see wolverine making 81-87million by monday.

Umm, the thing is the weekend estimates come from the Studio and rival Studio's have already stated it's in the 87 million range as well. There has been no movies in the history of films to drop as much as he claims it would from Studio Estimates. I think the most was 9 million for Scream 3, if I remember correctly which is a big blunder and which is why there hasn't been a slip up like that since. The most it will be off is 1-3 million either lower or higher than the given estimate.

 

[Downhere]

I could honestly see it drop as much as 70% by next weekend.

There is no reason to think it will drop that much. The last X-Men film dropped around 66-67% because it's first weekend was inflated due to it being a Holiday. I think the maximum drop it will face is 65% but I'm thinking more in the 60% range. Of course, you won't be able to accurately tell until the weekday numbers come in.

 

[Theweepeople]

Umm, the thing is the weekend estimates come from the Studio and rival Studio's have already stated it's in the 87 million range as well. There has been no movies in the history of films to drop as much as he claims it would from Studio Estimates. I think the most was 9 million for Scream 3, if I remember correctly which is a big blunder and which is why there hasn't been a slip up like that since. The most it will be off is 1-3 million either lower or higher than the given estimate.

I never said the original poster's prediction was a wise one. I certaintly didn't agree with it.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Word-of-mouth has been toxic on Wolverine - even from "John & Jane Doe Movie Goer!"

 

[night0205]

Word-of-mouth has been toxic on Wolverine - even from "John & Jane Doe Movie Goer!"

really?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I could honestly see it drop as much as 70% by next weekend.

I could too, I certainly hope that it does.

Word-of-mouth has been toxic on Wolverine - even from "John & Jane Doe Movie Goer!"

I hope that the word of mouth isn't good.

The fact is, even the supposedly "beloved" X2 had s**t legs. I could be wrong about the second weekend drop but this movie's legs are not going to be good. My proof is the other X-films.

The best multiplier for the X-films is 2.9. Orgins has no shot at that kind of multiplier, (which was piss poor in 2000 but good now) it bearly has a shot at X2's. Love or hate Orgins, X3's multiplier is the best case scenerio. "Fruity Pebbles" the movie could be coming out next weekend and Wolverine still wouldn't have a shot in hell of having a "good" drop off. The best it can hope for is 62%.

 

[Celestial]

Word-of-mouth has been toxic on Wolverine - even from "John & Jane Doe Movie Goer!"

I don't think so.

Earlier today, I checked out the fan reviews at Fandango. 83% of people rated Wolverine as "must go" or "go". To put it in perspective, Iron Man and The Dark Knight were at 96%, The Incredible Hulk at 83%, X3 at 77% and Watchmen just 64%. Not surprisingly, IM and TDK both had great legs and Watchmen had none.

 

[Tony Stark]

I just love how the fanboys on here are actively rooting against this movie. It's rather pathetic.

Most people liked this movie, even if the critics didn't. It was a pretty big success, considering outside Jackman and one cameo, none of the original cast returned.

 

[night0205]

Yeah, but Incredible Hulk really didn't make as much as it deserved. I think Wolverine's legs will get hurt big time by next week, but we will see...if audiences are ok with having two big movies at the same time?

 

[mclay18]

Most people liked this movie, even if the critics didn't. It was a pretty big success, considering outside Jackman and one cameo, none of the original cast returned.

The poll is only a very small fraction of the people who have seen it, so it's not a great comparison. I think there'd be an even more mixed word-of-mouth if you'd ask every single person who saw Wolverine what they'd thought of it.

Occasionally critics are dead wrong on some movies, but sadly they were dead right on how inept Wolverine is. It's a shame, as I didn't see the workprint, I was hoping the critics would be wrong and that Hood had a solid movie based on the disagreements he had with Tom Rothman but it stunk of studio interference all the way.

It's a shame since Wolverine had some things going for it but it wasn't worth the effort or time spent into it. Marvel would've been better off if it'd bought back the rights and made their own X-Men movie (with Fox distributing it only).

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't think so.

Earlier today, I checked out the fan reviews at Fandango. 83% of people rated Wolverine as "must go" or "go". To put it in perspective, Iron Man and The Dark Knight were at 96%, The Incredible Hulk at 83%, X3 at 77% and Watchmen just 64%. Not surprisingly, IM and TDK both had great legs and Watchmen had none.

Watchmen was an adult flick bordering on NC-17. That limited the demographic and therefore hurt it's legs. In addition, the longer runtime, meant fewer screenings and less revenue.

There will be a drop with Star Trek coming out, but I don't know if future films pose much threat. Angels and Demons is not going to be a huge draw. DaVinci code did pretty well, especially considering the low budget, but I don't see this movie doing better than the original, considering the book it's based on was never as successful as DaVinci Code.

I'm guessing that Wolverine will get around 200-225 by the time all is said and done.