Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[gap5ewl]

That is totally not true. The summer blockbuster thing has been big since the 80's. It picked up speed long before X2 came around.

Yes I know. But I think the summer blockbuster extravaganza really has taken full shape in this decade mainly due to comic book movies and such. Now it is required for a summer blockbuster to make record breaking box office numbers and have a lot of special effects in every shot. I think the success of Spider-Man and the Star Wars prequels really made that happen and then Pirates came out and made a huge bank. Just my observation. I know that summer movies were supposed to be the popcorn, big bank types before hand, but I really feel like the comic book movie wave in this decade has really increased the importance of summer blockbusters money wise than ever before.

 

[danoyse]

The Matrix Reloaded got mixed/negative reviews and toxic word-of-mouth.

And lines around the block for that whole first week anyway.

 

[DarkKnight88]

None of the X-Men films have had great legs despite how great word of mouth has been.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

And lines around the block for that whole first week anyway.

As a result, The Matrix Revolutions didn't.

 

[Electrix]

but it's a bit stupid from them accepting a boxoffice lower than Ironman, Dark Knight, etc, when the X-men films could have the same numbers if done better than X3 and Wolverine.

The Dark Knight did well because of Heath Ledger's death. If he was alive today it wouldn't have made $1 billion. People wanted to see his 'final' performance as the iconic Joker, and when it turned out to be a great film they told all their friends and probably ended up seeing it more than once.

Iron Man had no competition for 2 weeks. Speed Racer flopped the following week and then Prince Caspian targeted kids the week after.

An X-Men film could do big numbers if all the variables are in it's favour.

 

[danoyse]

Yes I know. But I think the summer blockbuster extravaganza really has taken full shape in this decade mainly due to comic book movies and such. Now it is required for a summer blockbuster to make a huge box office and have a lot of special effects. I think the sucess of Spider-Man really made that happen and then Pirates came out and made a huge bank. Just my observation. I know that summer movies were supposed to be the popcorn, big bank types before hand, but I really feel like the comic book movie wave in this decade has really increased the importance of summer blockbusters money wise than ever before.

I stood on line outside a movie theater for over 2 hours when I was 9 years old to see one of the original Star Wars movies on opening day. We also had ET, Indiana Jones, Back to the Future, Aliens, the first Batman.

They were in full swing in the 80s (and our movies rocked, btw). It didn't start in this decade at all. Comic book movies, yes...but summer blockbusters? They've been around a long time.

 

[danoyse]

As a result, The Matrix Revolutions didn't.

And there's no Wolverine sequel planned for this fall, so it doesn't look like they have to worry about that.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

And there's no Wolverine sequel planned for this fall, so it doesn't look like they have to worry about that.

Wolverine was always going to open big and this $87 million fits with what I figured it'd do (i.e. $70-$80 million). But I seriously doubt it hits $200 million domestic based on the word-of-mouth.

That said, it's Sunday and Fox still might opts for another solo Wolverine film - The First Class or Magneto? Not so much...

 

[Electrix]

That said, it's Sunday and Fox still might opts for another solo Wolverine film - The First Class or Magneto? Not so much...

First Class is looking likely

 

[craigdbfan]

I stood on line outside a movie theater for over 2 hours when I was 9 years old to see one of the original Star Wars movies on opening day. We also had ET, Indiana Jones, Back to the Future, Aliens, the first Batman.

They were in full swing in the 80s (and our movies rocked, btw). It didn't start in this decade at all. Comic book movies, yes...but summer blockbusters? They've been around a long time.

Danoyse is completely right on the fact that summer blockbusters have been going on for a while now.

The major difference between the 70's, 80's and even the 90's to an extent (with the exception of Batman '89 and Superman '78) is that a good number of blockbusters nowadays are comic book adaptations. In this era they have proven to be extremely commercially viable and with the upcoming projects coming from DC/WB and Marvel/Paramount it looks like the superhero genre is here to stay (hopefully the market doesn't become to over saturated with them to the point that people grow tired).

 

[FaT_tONle]

Wolverine should be a Bond type franchise. Get another actor every five, six years after the last film with the previous actor. Introduce the new actor in more of an ensemble picture before you solely focus on the next actor who plays Logan in future sequels. That way audiences would have an easier time adjusting to the new guy stepping in. Too many Wolverine stories out there and Jackman can't stay young forever.

 

[04nbod]

Look at it this way, it shows how forgiving X-Fans are

 

[Electrix]

Wolverine should be a Bond type franchise. Get another actor every five, six years after the last film with the previous actor. Introduce the new actor in more of an ensemble picture before you solely focus on the next actor who plays Logan in future sequels. That way audiences would have an easier time adjusting to the new guy stepping in. Too many Wolverine stories out there and Jackman can't stay young forever.

I'm sure people will eventually get tired of Wolverine. People started to get tired on Bond which is why the Daniel Craig re-boot happened.

People accept that Bond gets re-cast every few years because it's been going on for 60 years. Doing a similar thing nowadays probably wouldn't work.

 

[BMM]

Look at it this way, it shows how forgiving X-Fans are

This movie was never going to be an opening weekend dud because some X-Men fans, like myself, disliked The Last Stand.

 

[terry78]

Another difference between today and yesterday's blockbusters is for the past decade or so, every single one has been based on an established property, sans maybe the Pixar stuff. It's either a remake, an adaptation, or a sequel. You can count on one hand the number of big budget flicks that are original currently, sans the comedies and animated flicks.

 

[FaT_tONle]

I'm sure people will eventually get tired of Wolverine. People started to get tired on Bond which is why the Daniel Craig re-boot happened.

People accept that Bond gets re-cast every few years because it's been going on for 60 years. Doing a similar thing nowadays probably wouldn't work.

Well you gotto start over again eventually. People would buy it because there is a hundred years of history there and the character does not age, so common sense would tell people that the actor needs to stay mid thirty-ish. Even with the de-aging **** Jackman will call it quits eventually. Wolverine is the one character I could see it working with. Maybe when Marvel picks up the rights again, switch actors. Although they'd probably just jump to X4-X6 without doing more Wolverine solo films. But if Fox keeps X-Men for the next twenty years that's what I'd do. There is no rush to do X4-6 any time in the near future IMO. I like the potential of these spinoffs as they are less risky and more story/character oriented. Still not expecting any real quality as long as Fox is making the films but nonetheless... it has potential.

 

[Electrix]

Another difference between today and yesterday's blockbusters is for the past decade or so, every single one has been based on an established property, sans maybe the Pixar stuff. It's either a remake, an adaptation, or a sequel. You can count on one hand the number of big budget flicks that are original currently, sans the comedies and animated flicks.

Funnily enough Fox worked out a big deal with writers to make more original stuff. Despite what people say about Fox, this is a good move by them.

http://johnaugust.com/archives/2007/the-big-fox-deal

 

[danoyse]

Another difference between today and yesterday's blockbusters is for the past decade or so, every single one has been based on an established property, sans maybe the Pixar stuff. It's either a remake, an adaptation, or a sequel. You can count on one hand the number of big budget flicks that are original currently, sans the comedies and animated flicks.

And there was no internet to spoil the whole movie for everyone either. The first time I ever heard Darth Vader tell Luke Skywalker that he was his father was in a movie theater. I remember the whole audience went nuts. And I was 6 at the time, so it was fairly traumatic.

 

[terry78]

This is why I am waiting with baited breath for Avatar. Cameron is busting out with his own original story, which by all rights someone will claim is ripping off something else, but isn't.

 

[terry78]

And there was no internet to spoil the whole movie for everyone either. The first time I ever heard Darth Vader tell Luke Skywalker that he was his father was in a movie theater. I remember the whole audience went nuts. And I was 6 at the time, so it was fairly traumatic.

I was two in 1980. You're old.

 

[Timstuff]

I was two in 1980. You're old.

I was minus 6. You're both old.

And so am I. I first saw X-Men 9 years ago.

 

[StylishHokie21]

Whoops! I thought this was opening weekend. I'm thinking it will make around $200 million domestically.

 

[danoyse]

I was two in 1980. You're old.

Older and wiser.

 

[Theweepeople]

And there was no internet to spoil the whole movie for everyone either. The first time I ever heard Darth Vader tell Luke Skywalker that he was his father was in a movie theater. I remember the whole audience went nuts. And I was 6 at the time, so it was fairly traumatic.

I was 5 when I saw Empire Strikes back and I thought Darth Vader was lying.

 

[danoyse]

I was 5 when I saw Empire Strikes back and I thought Darth Vader was lying.

So did I. We actually used to discuss the whole situation in school for ages afterwards whenever anyone brought in their Star Wars toys or games. It was like a soap opera for 7-year-olds.