Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[katie_girl09]

It doesn't mean a better film. But I'll take my chances with Marvel over Fox.

Okay, I see. Fair enough, I guess.

 

[Angamb]

Definetly Fox won't give the rights back in many years.....


ok, let's imagine to possible total x-men films they could have done after some years:

• X-men
• X2
• X-men Last Stand
• XO Wolverine
• First Class
• Wolverine 2
• Deadpool
• Magneto
• First class 2

A 9 movies franchise.... quite big, right?.

we'll see if the last movie they do has the quality of the first ones...

 

[Spider-Vader]

If the rumors of Marvel having creative control over Deadpool & Magneto are right, then they could possibly be better than the first ones.

 

[dark_b]

What, this year?

a wolverine in general. a low budget movie realesed in winter. i think in the movie it could also be winter. it would look very good IMO.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Yea, I'll agree to that.

I'm seeing reports that this has had a 68% drop and is on course for 27 million this weekend.

 

[dark_b]

Do they still have Daredevil?

they wont lose them. they will make a low budget movie that will bomb. like dragonball.

they rather have a bomb. imagine if for example Paramount has dragonball. they invest 150 millions and they realese the movie 1 week after X-men : first class.
FOX would lose a lot of money. they rather make a bad movie and keep the rights. they need those kind of movies.

noone will tell me that FOX wanted to make money with DB. noone. t loosk bad and it was not promoted.

thats why they will reboot daredevil and fantastic four.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Wolverine's drop is disasterous...as we all knew it would be. I wonder how the studio is going to spin this? If that estimate holds it's a worst drop than X3. Clearly the competition and bad word of mouth killed it.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I wouldn't call it "disastrous". Very bad? Yes. But I don't think 27 million is disastrous really.

 

[Jick]

200 million worldwide, already, and 130 domestic.
Not disastrous at all.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Do they still have Daredevil?

Sony has/had Daredevil.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I wouldn't call it "disastrous". Very bad? Yes. But I don't think 27 million is disastrous really.

I don't judge boxoffice numbers by how much I like or dislike a flick. I'm purely looking at the facts. The fact is that estimated number is terrible and you only disagree with me because you liked the movie.

I liked Star Trek but if it drops 68% next weekend I will judge it's boxoffice the exact same way.

200 million worldwide, already, and 130 domestic.
Not disastrous at all.

It's opening was great but it's drop is disastrous...end of story. Will it make money for the studio? Ofcourse it will, that fact was never in doubt. Will the bad reception of the movie hurt the sequel? Yes.

I loved Watchmen but it's second weekend drop was terribe.

 

[Celestial]

"It's the same weekend drop as ('X-Men: The Last Stand'), the last one. That tends to be what fan-based movies do," said Chris Aronson, senior vice president of domestic distribution for 20th Century Fox. "To have $130 million in the first 10 days is sensational. We think we withstood the attack of 'Star Trek,' if you will, and will settle into a long, successful run."

I forgot to save the link, but it's from Associated Press.

 

[Angamb]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Wolverine's drop is disasterous...as we all knew it would be. I wonder how the studio is going to spin this? If that estimate holds it's a worst drop than X3. Clearly the competition and bad word of mouth killed it.

I was expecting less than 27 million....

it isn't as bad as it derserves...

They'll do the spin-off, but this movie won't get 200million domestically.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I don't judge boxoffice numbers by how much I like or dislike a flick. I'm purely looking at the facts. The fact is that estimated number is terrible and you only disagree with me because you liked the movie.

Wha...? No I'm not, not at all. I've said before, I don't really give a toss about box office results. But 27 million is not disastrous, don't care what anyone says. It isn't good by any means, it is pretty bad.

But I would only say it was "disastrous" if it went below 20 million.

And Wolverine has already beaten Watchmens WW gross no?

 

[Jick]

It's opening was great but it's drop is disastrous...end of story. Will it make money for the studio? Ofcourse it will, that fact was never in doubt. Will the bad reception of the movie hurt the sequel? Yes.

I didn't say the drop wasn't disastrous. I said its box office isn't disastrous.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I was expecting less than 27 million....

it isn't as bad as it derserves...

They'll do the spin-off, but this movie won't get 200million domestically.

It has no chance of 200mil and yeah it will get a sequel/spinoff. I didn't hate the flick as much as other people but I damn sure didn't like it. I think that it got what it deserved.

Wha...? No I'm not, not at all. I've said before, I don't really give a toss about box office results. But 27 million is not disastrous, don't care what anyone says. It isn't good by any means, it is pretty bad.

But I would only say it was "disastrous" if it went below 20 million.

And Wolverine has already beaten Watchmens WW gross no?

How many times do I have to say that Wolverine is successful because of it's opening weekend but that drop doesn't bode will for the sequel. IMHO A 60 to 63% could have been looked at in a decent light but a 68% drop can't. Stop looking at that 27mil and look at the percentage drop.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

You are arguing over like, 5% here.

And I was expecting it to be around 25-30 million, so it's not as though I'm surprised. I don't think it is "disastrous" no matter how you wanna put it.

Disastrous would be a 70% drop or more.

 

[Project862006]

origins had a better opening weekend than trek trek need another 10 million to tie wolverine's weekend

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

origins had a better opening weekend than trek trek need another 10 million to tie wolverine's weekend

In 2003 The Matrix Reloaded had made 134.3mil in four and a half days. Pirates of the Caribbean made 56.3mil in four days.

Final gross:

The Matrix Reloaded:281.6mil
Pirates of the Caribbean: 305.4mil

Opening weekend aint everything when your movie is poorly recieved.

 

[neemer5]

Wolverine has the 69th worst drop in movie history. It is about on-par with Chun-Li, and did worse than such film greats as Punisher War Zone, The Watchmen, AVP, Saw IV and Basketball. Even Basic Instinct 2 did slightly better.

 

[topdog1]

Definetly Fox won't give the rights back in many years.....


ok, let's imagine to possible total x-men films they could have done after some years:

• X-men
• X2
• X-men Last Stand
• XO Wolverine
• First Class
• Wolverine 2
• Deadpool
• Magneto
• First class 2

A 9 movies franchise.... quite big, right?.

we'll see if the last movie they do has the quality of the first ones...

Well, honest grades

• X-men = B
• X2 = A+
• X-men Last Stand = C+
• XO Wolverine = A-

Seems like Fox is doing fine to me. Give back FF and stick to the X-Franchises I'll be happy. Marvel has enough on their plate with all the Avengers stuff.

Since Wolverine's budget was $130 million and they are at $130 million domestic right now, everything from here on out is gravy. (Their take is 80% in the first two weeks. Worldwide more then makes up for promotion and the 20% to theatres) Wolverine = Official Quality Money Maker.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I don't remember any of them having direct competition following week though.

 

[MasterOgami]

I guess no one's posted the 2nd weekend drops from all of the X-films as a way of keeping things in perspective? It did more or less exactly what it was expected to do; every X-Men picture's taken a significant 2nd weekend tumble, though Last Stand and Wolverine tumbled a bit more, most likely due to mixed worth of mouth.

X-Men -56.9%
X2 -53.2%
X-Men: The Last Stand -66.9%
X-Men Origins: Wolverine -68.3%

Not "disastrous", though obviously not fantastic. Just comparable with the over 50% drops of the other films in the series, especially/specifically The Last Stand.

 

[chaseter]

Well, honest grades

• X-men = B
• X2 = A+
• X-men Last Stand = C+
• XO Wolverine = A-

Seems like Fox is doing fine to me. Give back FF and stick to the X-Franchises I'll be happy. Marvel has enough on their plate with all the Avengers stuff.

Since Wolverine's budget was $130 million and they are at $130 million domestic right now, everything from here on out is gravy. (Their take is 80% in the first two weeks. Worldwide more then makes up for promotion and the 20% to theatres) Wolverine = Official Quality Money Maker.

• X1 - B
• X2 - A
• X3 - C
• X4 - D

I can also give grades to these movies and say the quality is declining. Our opinions, aside, Wolverine has gotten hammered by critics and took around a 70% drop at the box office this week. This movie didn't even put up X2's numbers. Why is that? Why is it that this movie was slammed by critics and has a massive drop? The budget for this is 130-150 million and then when you add in promoting this movie, which they did every other commercial, I seriously doubt that this movie makes its budget back domestically.

Fox will not change and if they do continue down this path and this trend, then the next movie will fail.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't think we are disgreeing about much.