Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Ace of Knaves]

I thought it was £9.7 trillion?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Who's making excuses?

I'm not going to name names because that would be rude.

The people who don't admit to the fact that X-Men Orgins does have bad word of mouth and didn't drop 69% just because of StarTrek and the fact that the X-films are frontloaded.

The people who don't admit to the fact that the X-Men Orgins drop was absolutely terrible.

 

[X-Maniac]

So now we should have expected Star Trek to be bigger?..give me a break.

The excuses never stop.

I hope this isn't directed at me.

I specifically said Star Trek performed as expected, with Variety predicting $60m and MovieTickets predicting $100m - it fell right between those.

I said that some of the reason Star Trek performed the way it did was because of the fanbase and iconic status the franchise has. I didn't say it should have performed better.

Wolverine's drop was pretty much as expected as well. I haven't yet been taken by surprise by any of the statistics for these two films.

 

[Celestial]

The Wolverine domestic box office total passed FF2 and The Hulk, yesterday. On Friday it will pass The Incredible Hulk. Internationally, it's already passed The Hulk and was only $5m below TIH at the end of last weekend.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=comicbookadaptation.htm

Yes, it's not TDK, IM or even X2 or X3 numbers, but it's doing a lot better than most comic book adaptations.

On Monday, Watchmen passed Batman & Robin's domestic take.

Watchmen passed Batman & Robin on Monday.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I hope this isn't directed at me.

I specifically said Star Trek performed as expected, with Variety predicting $60m and MovieTickets predicting $100m - it fell right between those.

I said that some of the reason Star Trek performed the way it did was because of the fanbase and iconic status the franchise has. I didn't say it should have performed better.

Wolverine's drop was pretty much as expected as well. I haven't yet been taken by surprise by any of the statistics for these two films.

I'm not even talking about Star Trek performance and I didn't even read your long post. I pretty sure I wouldn't disagree with your assessment of it's boxoffice... as long as you didn't call it a bomb or the biggest hit ever.

Wolverine's terrible drop was expected because the X-films are frontloaded and it had bad word of mouth, so yes, a disasterous drop was expected, we don't disagree on that point.

I'm just going to reiterate once again, that I don't make boxoffice predictions nor do I judge how a movie is doing based on if I like it or hate it or am interested in said film.

Very few, in the know, are calling the movie a boxoffice failure Celestial, we are just commenting on the fact that the word of mouth isn't good. It's painfully clear that the studio is going to make money off of it but it's lukewarm reception will hurt the sequel.

 

[X-Maniac]

I'm not even talking about Star Trek performance and I didn't even read your long post. I pretty sure I wouldn't disagree with your assessment of it's boxoffice... as long as you didn't call it a bomb or the biggest hit ever.

Wolverine's terrible drop was expected because the X-films are frontloaded and it had bad word of mouth, so yes, a disasterous drop was expected, we don't disagree on that point.

I'm just going to reiterate once again, that I don't make boxoffice predictions nor do I judge how a movie is doing based on if I like it or hate it or am interested in said film.

Very few, in the know, are calling the movie a boxoffice failure Celestial, we are just commenting on the fact that the word of mouth isn't good. It's painfully clear that the studio is going to make money off of it but it's lukewarm reception will hurt the sequel.

Okay. The one point I'd question is this 'bad word of mouth' claim.

Unless I'm mistaken, this means that people who went to the film are passing around word (to family, friends, work colleagues) that it's not worth seeing.

I haven't heard any bad word of mouth, nor is there is any way to record or measure word of mouth.

We can measure box office and critics' ratings but public word of mouth is unknown.

In fact, I don't really hear much 'word of mouth' on most films. Most people see a film then get on with their lives. They might talk about it on the way from the auditorium to their car and on the car ride home, then that's about it.

When i do hear people express opinions on films, it's mostly in context and clear it's their view and that THEY did/didn't like it. I don't see this alleged network of spreading information to see or not see a movie, because people will make up their own minds whether to see or not see a movie. Usually from trailers or newspaper reviews, or because they like someone who is in it or follow a certain franchise. Even if loads of people told my mother and father or sister to see TDK, they wouldn't be interested. If I told my friend Clare at work to go and see Wolverine, she would never do it because it isn't her kind of thing.

i think this word of mouth thing is, at best, overstated and, at worst, a fallacy as it's totally unprovable and not measurable/quantifiable.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Okay. The one point I'd question is this 'bad word of mouth' claim.

Unless I'm mistaken, this means that people who went to the film are passing around word (to family, friends, work colleagues) that it's not worth seeing.

I haven't heard any bad word of mouth, nor is there is any way to record or measure word of mouth.

We can measure box office and critics' ratings but public word of mouth is unknown.

In fact, I don't really hear much 'word of mouth' on most films. Most people see a film then get on with their lives. They might talk about it on the way from the auditorium to their car and on the car ride home, then that's about it.

When i do hear people express opinions on films, it's mostly in context and clear it's their view and that THEY did/didn't like it. I don't see this alleged network of spreading information to see or not see a movie, because people will make up their own minds whether to see or not see a movie. Usually from trailers or newspaper reviews, or because they like someone who is in it or follow a certain franchise. Even if loads of people told my mother and father or sister to see TDK, they wouldn't be interested. If I told my friend Clare at work to go and see Wolverine, she would never do it because it isn't her kind of thing.

i think this word of mouth thing is, at best, overstated and, at worst, a fallacy as it's totally unprovable and not measurable/quantifiable.

It's alright with me if you don't believe in word of mouth but I do, so we don't have much to talk about on that subject because we completely disagree. And thats fine, no big deal.

 

[danoyse]

I'm not going to name names because that would be rude.

Smart move.

The people who don't admit to the fact that X-Men Orgins does have bad word of mouth and didn't drop 69% just because of StarTrek and the fact that the X-films are frontloaded.

The people who don't admit to the fact that the X-Men Orgins drop was absolutely terrible.

And who cares if they don't? Does it really make a difference to you if they believe what they want to? Watchmen dropped like a rock after its first weekend, and I hear people make excuses for that all the time.

 

[neemer5]

I think the Star Trek fanbase is a lot bigger than people give it credit for.

The fanbase couldn't save Enterprise from cancellation. The trekkie documentary talks about how the fanbase is small but loyal. Don't remember if they gave actual numbers.

 

[Deaths Head II]

The fanbase couldn't save Enterprise from cancellation.

I don't know much about the Star Trek fanbase, but pretty much everyone I know who is somewhat of a Trek fan said they hated that show and stopped watching it.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

Smart move.



And who cares if they don't? Does it really make a difference to you if they believe what they want to? Watchmen dropped like a rock after its first weekend, and I hear people make excuses for that all the time.

Why are you bringing up Watchmen? Last time I checked no sequel, prequel, or whatever was going to be made since it's a one shot book and it's a one shot film.

If Wolverine was great or a strong film it would've maintained its success. Why do you think films like Spider-Man 2, Dark Knight, LOTR, and etc had such long winning streaks? It seems to me that people want to make excuses for Wolverine's drop, bad word of mouth, and missed oppotunities. Believe me if Wolverine was a strong great film Star Trek wouldn't have derailed it.

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

*sigh*

I knew I shouldn't have come into this thread.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I love box office threads. So much vitriol, Alan Moore would be proud.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

Here's the way I look at things and I don't mean this in an insulting way.

Wolverine had the right concept, it had the right idea, and on paper it looked like it could be a film that really depicted his origins in a dark fashion and could've been a strong film at that. But what a lot of fans need to realize is Wolverine is not as an appealing or popular character than say Batman, Spider-Man, and Superman. Granted, Superman Returns was a disappointment at the box office, however, when you look at Wolverine's story and look at their stories it's just not appealing or interesting.

The character itself has no real struggles other than dealing with his past. He cannot die, thus it takes away the danger and the prospect of rooting for the character. Why feel sadness for him when he gets shot, stabbed, blown up, or ran over? He'll come back anyways and he won't die.

The box office returns for Wolverine is speaking loud volumes in my opinion. It's a combination of it being a poorly constructed, weak, and watered down film instead of the opposite. But I also do believe that the public has somewhat gotten burned out at the moment from superhero films. You have to remember we've had a superhero film come out every year so far.

What's going to be really telling in the next few years is how people react to Iron Man 2, Captain America, Spider-Man 4, Thor, Batman 3, and The Avengers. That's a lot of superhero films coming out soon and I wonder how they'll fare in the box office.

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

Here's the way I look at things and I don't mean this in an insulting way.

Wolverine had the right concept, it had the right idea, and on paper it looked like it could be a film that really depicted his origins in a dark fashion and could've been a strong film at that. But what a lot of fans need to realize is Wolverine is not as an appealing or popular character than say Batman, Spider-Man, and Superman. Granted, Superman Returns was a disappointment at the box office, however, when you look at Wolverine's story and look at their stories it's just not appealing or interesting.

As a huge X-Men fanboy, and a fan of all 4 movies (I think that X-Men: The Last Stand is the best of the series - though X2 is about just as good, just in different ways - and I like X-Men Origins: Wolverine tho I would call it the worst of the 4, none of the 4 being below an 8/10 imo) I don't think that's insulting at all.

I think it's the truth.

Wolverine, and the X-Men in general just don't have the same mainstream appeal as characters like Batman and Superman. I'd probably agree with Spiderman also.

I mean, Batman and Superman are simply put part of American pop culture. That's why I feel that Batman and Superman are the exceptions to my views on reboots (I think you know how much I hate them) just because they always have been, and always will be, parts of American culture that will always be re-interpreted.

I mean, every year after an X-Men movie came out, a Spiderman movie came out. And every year, the Spiderman out performs the X-Men movies. People can argue that the Spiderman movies are "better", but critically, and even amongst the fans, the first 2 X-Men movies are regarded pretty damned well. They were very well made films, along with the 2 Spiderman films. The fans and reviews become a lot more split on both franchise 3rds, but I believe Spiderman 3 still outperformed X-Men 3 (perhaps I am wrong?)

You can call it a bias, I suppose it would be the definition of the word, but I am an X-Men fan through and through. I love the characters, and I love the stories, so I feel it's only natural that I am going to prefer the X-Men movies over those of Spiderman, Batman, or Superman.

But I don't think that the X-Men or Wolverine have the same mainstream appeal as those other characters. I don't think it's insulting at all. I don't. It's just reality.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

As a huge X-Men fanboy, and a fan of all 4 movies (I think that X-Men: The Last Stand is the best of the series - though X2 is about just as good, just in different ways - and I like X-Men Origins: Wolverine tho I would call it the worst of the 4, none of the 4 being below an 8/10 imo) I don't think that's insulting at all.

I think it's the truth.

Wolverine, and the X-Men in general just don't have the same mainstream appeal as characters like Batman and Superman. I'd probably agree with Spiderman also.

I mean, Batman and Superman are simply put part of American pop culture. That's why I feel that Batman and Superman are the exceptions to my views on reboots (I think you know how much I hate them) just because they always have been, and always will be, parts of American culture that will always be re-interpreted.

I mean, every year after an X-Men movie came out, a Spiderman movie came out. And every year, the Spiderman out performs the X-Men movies. People can argue that the Spiderman movies are "better", but critically, and even amongst the fans, the first 2 X-Men movies are regarded pretty damned well. They were very well made films, along with the 2 Spiderman films. The fans and reviews become a lot more split on both franchise 3rds, but I believe Spiderman 3 still outperformed X-Men 3 (perhaps I am wrong?)

You can call it a bias, I suppose it would be the definition of the word, but I am an X-Men fan through and through. I love the characters, and I love the stories, so I feel it's only natural that I am going to prefer the X-Men movies over those of Spiderman, Batman, or Superman.

But I don't think that the X-Men or Wolverine have the same mainstream appeal as those other characters. I don't think it's insulting at all. I don't. It's just reality.

To some extent the X-Men films are part of American Pop Culture. But you are right when they're compared to Spider-Man, Superman, and Batman there is no comparison to be made as to who is more popular and what history runs deeper to the core.

I'm an X-Men fan myself. I grew up on the comics, watched the animated series, collected the toys, and had the trading cards as a kid. But I'm also a realist, I'm also a fan who wants quality over quantity and I just feel Wolverine missed the mark. The watered down Weapon X procedure, the watering down of the vicious battles between Logan/Victor, and I think we all can agree that every film had missed opportunities.

But in all honesty Nell it's not fair to compare Spider-Man and the X-Men.

For one Spider-Man is one character with major villains and minor side characters. The X-Men is a team with so many interesting characters that it becomes increasingly difficult for the audience to relate to.

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

To some extent the X-Men films are part of American Pop Culture. But you are right when they're compared to Spider-Man, Superman, and Batman there is no comparison to be made as to who is more popular and what history runs deeper to the core.

I'm an X-Men fan myself. I grew up on the comics, watched the animated series, collected the toys, and had the trading cards as a kid. But I'm also a realist, I'm also a fan who wants quality over quantity and I just feel Wolverine missed the mark. The watered down Weapon X procedure, the watering down of the vicious battles between Logan/Victor, and I think we all can agree that every film had missed opportunities.

But in all honesty Nell it's not fair to compare Spider-Man and the X-Men.

For one Spider-Man is one character with major villains and minor side characters. The X-Men is a team with so many interesting characters that it becomes increasingly difficult for the audience to relate to.

I wouldn't agree with your first statement.

While the X-Men movies are overall, a well received comic book / action flick series, I really don't feel that there's much attachment to these movies after they are released. I don't think these films are in the least bit a part of American pop culture. I think they are just well received action movies, and after their out and seen, they go back to not really being cared about much anymore until they come on FX or there is a sequel.

I do agree that all the movies had missed opportunities and I also agree with "quality over quantity", which is why I don't want them making an X-Men 4, X-Men Origins: Magneto, or spin-offs for other characters like Gambit, Storm, Mystique, etc...

I'm okay with a First Class movie, but I don't want them over doing that either.

I pretty much have the same history with the X-Men that you do. I grew up with the animated series, collected all the toys, and collected the trading cards. I didn't get into the comics as much until a bit later, tho I did have a few X-Men comics. But the bulk of my X-Men fandom came from the cartoon. I really started getting heavily into the comics around the time of the first movie, and I haven't looked back since.

That said, with my knowledge, understanding, and interpretations of the X-Men universe, from my experiences with the comics, cartoons, video games, etc... while the X-Men franchise didn't reach it's full potential (they probably SHOULD be my favorite movies ever, considering, but the series is second, behind Lord of the Rings), I don't think they really missed the mark either. More than adaptations, I look at them as recreations. And in my view, they captured the most important elements of the universe, the most important characters to that universe, and the most important traits of those characters, and brought them to life in a new, but faithful way. Sure, I have beefs with all of the movies, and certain areas of the franchise weren't as faithful as I would have liked them to have been, but I truly do not feel that I received mediocre products with any of the movies. Most of my complaints don't stem from the quality, but rather the accuracy (Cyclops' death, Xavier's death, Rogue's curing, adamatium bullets, Deadpool's alterations, Lady Deathstrike, Storm's personality, and Iceman's personality). Outside of the few complaints about accuracy that the movies do have across the board, I am pretty much completely satisfied with what we got. Outside of those complaints, I feel these movies to be accurate, faithful, respectful, and well done recreations of the universe I have come to love so much in my 26 years.

All that said, my passion for the X-Men aside, I don't feel they are as iconic or as popular as the likes of Batman, Superman, or Spiderman, and I think we agree on that.

I also wouldn't call these movies a part of American pop-culture. Perhaps we have different definitions of the phrase, but I really don't see any scenes from the X-Men movies being considered iconic shots 10 years from now, or any of the dialogue being quoted by movie goers 10 years from now.

But shots like Spidey on the American flag? That's iconic. That's a part of American pop culture.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

So you don't consider Logan's introduction in the first X-Men film, the X-Men in the White House following Jean's death, and etc to be iconic?

Or Cyclops and Logan peering out of the Blackbird as they watch Jean trying to save them?

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

So you don't consider Logan's introduction in the first X-Men film, the X-Men in the White House following Jean's death, and etc to be iconic?

Or Cyclops and Logan peering out of the Blackbird as they watch Jean trying to save them?

Iconic to ME because I am a huge X-Men fan, and scenes like those (along with a few others) are PERFECT scenes in the X-Men universe.

But not iconic to the general movie viewing audience who really doesn't give a crap about the X-Men outside of a good movie to watch every couple summers.

But along those same lines, I think that there are iconic X-Men scenes in EVERY X-Men movie. I just don't think they matter to people outside of X-Men fandom.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

So, what is the WW or this? I asked on the last page but was never answered.

 

[Celestial]

So, what is the WW or this? I asked on the last page but was never answered.

In their Sunday round up of international box office, Variety gave an estimate of $123.7m. Boxofficemojo gives a domestic total up to Tuesday of $132.9m (but haven't updated their overseas figures).

So the worldwide total is around $257m.

Because this is meant to be a prediction thread, I'm going to guessimate that it makes another $30m domestic and $50m overseas (including Mexico and Japan) giving a worldwide total of around $340m.

I think the poor reviews/word of mouth combined with the success of Star Trek have cost it at least $50m. However, it is still a successful movie.

 

[danoyse]

Why are you bringing up Watchmen? Last time I checked no sequel, prequel, or whatever was going to be made since it's a one shot book and it's a one shot film.

Were you even following that conversation?

If Wolverine was great or a strong film it would've maintained its success. Why do you think films like Spider-Man 2, Dark Knight, LOTR, and etc had such long winning streaks? It seems to me that people want to make excuses for Wolverine's drop, bad word of mouth, and missed oppotunities. Believe me if Wolverine was a strong great film Star Trek wouldn't have derailed it.

Agreed. I liked the movie, despite some gaping flaws, but word of mouth overall was mixed at best, and with the Star Trek movie (which I thought was amazing) getting superior reviews and word of mouth, I think more people who missed Wolverine opening weekend are headed off to see Star Trek at this point and just waiting for DVD on Wolverine. Had it gotten better reviews/audience response, it would be holding up better.

But like Celestial's excellent box office analysis shows, the movie seems to be doing OK regardless, even if it's not a runaway blockbuster.

 

[Raiden]

Agreed. I liked the movie, despite some gaping flaws, but word of mouth overall was mixed at best, and with the Star Trek movie (which I thought was amazing) getting superior reviews and word of mouth, I think more people who missed Wolverine opening weekend are headed off to see Star Trek at this point and just waiting for DVD on Wolverine. Had it gotten better reviews/audience response, it would be holding up better.

But like Celestial's excellent box office analysis shows, the movie seems to be doing OK regardless, even if it's not a runaway blockbuster.

I'm one of those people who decided to see Star Trek instead of Wolverine due to WOM and better reviews, even though I'm more of a Marvel fan than Star Trek fan. I also hope that by not buying tickets for Wolverine, it will make Fox realize that maybe they shouldn't keep spending money on subpar Marvel movies, and they will either make them better (unlikely) or let the license expire so they will be returned back to Marvel (even more unlikely).

 

[FaT_tONle]

What's going to be really telling in the next few years is how people react to Iron Man 2, Captain America, Spider-Man 4, Thor, Batman 3, and The Avengers. That's a lot of superhero films coming out soon and I wonder how they'll fare in the box office.

I expect all those films to outgross this one... with the exception of Thor. With any luck, maybe that can surpass this as well but still.... Origins still falls in line with the marginal comic book films of the decade in terms of box office performance.

 

[BestGirl]

Here's the way I look at things and I don't mean this in an insulting way.

Wolverine had the right concept, it had the right idea, and on paper it looked like it could be a film that really depicted his origins in a dark fashion and could've been a strong film at that. But what a lot of fans need to realize is Wolverine is not as an appealing or popular character than say Batman, Spider-Man, and Superman. Granted, Superman Returns was a disappointment at the box office, however, when you look at Wolverine's story and look at their stories it's just not appealing or interesting.

The character itself has no real struggles other than dealing with his past. He cannot die, thus it takes away the danger and the prospect of rooting for the character. Why feel sadness for him when he gets shot, stabbed, blown up, or ran over? He'll come back anyways and he won't die.

The box office returns for Wolverine is speaking loud volumes in my opinion. It's a combination of it being a poorly constructed, weak, and watered down film instead of the opposite. But I also do believe that the public has somewhat gotten burned out at the moment from superhero films. You have to remember we've had a superhero film come out every year so far.

What's going to be really telling in the next few years is how people react to Iron Man 2, Captain America, Spider-Man 4, Thor, Batman 3, and The Avengers. That's a lot of superhero films coming out soon and I wonder how they'll fare in the box office.

Well, no superhero ever dies in his movie. The suspense comes from wondering how the hero will overcome some obstacle and who else will get hurt along the way.

Wolverine's an interesting, dark character but he needs a more compelling movie to star in.