Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Downhere]

I'm game.

Wolverine stays at #1 for 2 weeks in a row.

*How long do you wanna keep the losing signature up?

Wolverine will not be number 1 for two weeks considering Star Trek opens the week after. It will fall to number 2 on it's second weekend and the X-Men films have always been front loaded, so, you will most likely lose that bet.

 

[SP1D3RxV3N0M]

I'm game.

Wolverine stays at #1 for 2 weeks in a row.

*How long do you wanna keep the losing signature up?

Worldwide or Domestic? Because I think is ging to be #1 Worldwide for two weeks but domestic, I don't know...

 

[SP1D3RxV3N0M]

I'm actually surprised so many people voted over $250 mill. I hope it does, then we'll get a DP spin off

I hope too, I'm starting to become a big Deadpool fan.

 

[night0205]

Watchmen and Wolverine and Iron Man

Now I know Watchmen and Wolverine are completely different types of movies released in different periods of the year. The question I would like to bring up is this: Watchmen had an amazing amount of hype among the fans and online, and for the most part the fans expectations were completely fulfilled. But it sinks at the box office...almost didn't even make it's budget back. It was a very well made movie, that personally was respectful to the graphic novel. But it was deep, long, violent, and sex. The fans by themselves can not hold up a movie. (think of this also in reference to deadpool, just something to be aware of if he get's his own movie)
Now compare this to Wolverine and the leaked version. Fans are split, I would say for the most part the fan gossip has been mostly negative. But hype among the general audience is huge. Fans have pretty much always been down on the x-men films. First one comes out, fans are screaming bloody murder, X2 comes out fans like it, X3 bloody murder, Wolverine, people are already starting to scream. If the general audience loves this movie, it will make plenty, even if the fans boycott it. Now if neither really like, then it won't do so well.
Iron Man was an unknown character to many of the general audience, but hype online/fans, was HUGE, and it was huge with the general audience. It was a well made movie, fun, and respectful to the fans expectations. It get's both sides of the coin, and for that it did really well in the box office.

basically what we are talking about the general audience, which is exactly what Fox tries to get money from...as we know.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Well yea. The fact is that comic book fans are the minority when it comes to target audiences. Even if every single person on this board boycotted this movie it wouldn't make any difference to the box office. Well, maybe a tiny bit of difference, but not enough to determine whether the film is financially successful.

And I'm interested in seeing Star Trek, but to be honest, I don't think this will pose a serious threat to Wolverine outside of the US. No one really gives a toss about Star Trek anymore, it's old hat. In the US it will be successful but WW I reckon it won't do nothing.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't think that Star Trek is going to be massive anywhere but the X-Men series hasn't exactly been Spider-Man overseas. Although I could see this one doing better than those because it's the first big summer movie. I could see a default 300mil but I think it's likely going to do X3 to Iron Man numbers overseas.

Honestly I think that Trek is going to be a Batman Begins style "success." underperform at the boxoffice but overperform on DVD. I'm thinking 165 to 180mil right now. And I think that Wolverine is going to make 190mil at the very least. So Wolverine will win the battle but Trek will win the war.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Yea that's a good point about Batman Begins. I reckon Star Trek will do those sorta numbers, and be a big hit on DVD/Blu-Ray.

But I also think Wolverine will be a big hit on DVD/Blu-Ray.

 

[Peter McCabe]

Wolverine's key to success is the date its being released on.

The same date that got IRON MAN a $99 Million opening last year.

The film is being advertised as PURE popcorn (like IM) in the majority of the TV Spots - which are really how the general audiences find out about what's playing.

with Fast and Furious' unexpected $71 Million opening, it should be easy for Wolverine to reach 100 Million by May 4th

*Star Trek on the other hand, I don't see crossing $80 Million in its opening nor do I see it breaking the $200 Million mark domestically.

If it does, I'll base that completely on good reviews and word of mouth - which are good things

I expect Wolverine to cash in on its popcorn appeal more than anything else.

 

[chaseter]

IM was not pure popcorn...this is pure popcorn.

 

[terry78]

the first May movie is always a big one...it's the first REAL sign that summer is here.

 

[dark_b]

IM was not pure popcorn...this is pure popcorn.

wolverine is not pure popcorn.
tehy have a lot of action scenes an a lot of funny scenes. wolverine doesnt have this.

its more of a serious comicbook movie. if people agree with this doesnt matter. but it is not a popcorn movie.

 

[chaseter]

X2 was not a popcorn movie. X3 was a popcorn movie. This is a popcorn movie. This movie is flat and full of action, good fx, and tons of one liners...it is a popcorn movie.

 

[chaseter]

Wolverine's key to success is the date its being released on.

The same date that got IRON MAN a $99 Million opening last year.

The film is being advertised as PURE popcorn (like IM) in the majority of the TV Spots - which are really how the general audiences find out about what's playing.

with Fast and Furious' unexpected $71 Million opening, it should be easy for Wolverine to reach 100 Million by May 4th

*Star Trek on the other hand, I don't see crossing $80 Million in its opening nor do I see it breaking the $200 Million mark domestically.

If it does, I'll base that completely on good reviews and word of mouth - which are good things

I expect Wolverine to cash in on its popcorn appeal more than anything else.

This is about the first reasonable post you have made I have to agree with this. IM was advertised as popcorn and the reason it did so well is because it was an unexpected very well made and good movie.

 

[louiebling$]

Ive talked to alot of Non Comic readers regarding Wolverine and they are all excited about it.. i expect a big turn out. Hell look how well X3 did,Star Trek is the only real competition.

 

[terry78]

A lot of people that use the internet honestly use it more for twitter and facebook than looking up movie reviews and opinions. They may use it to look up movie showtimes or something, but stuff like AICN and SHH, that's more of a niche. It won't have that huge of an impact....this movie already seems like it'll be of the "I liked this better than Watchmen, it had more action" sense.

 

[Peter McCabe]

Ive talked to alot of Non Comic readers regarding Wolverine and they are all excited about it.. i expect a big turn out. Hell look how well X3 did,Star Trek is the only real competition.

I think the only real competition for Wolverine is Terminator.

Terminator will pretty much cut off whatever legs Wolverine has at that point.

Hopefully Wolverine will be up to $200 Million by May 21.

 

[YJ1]

I think the only real competition for Wolverine is Terminator.

Terminator will pretty much cut off whatever legs Wolverine has at that point.

Hopefully Wolverine will be up to $200 Million by May 21.

That's the right answer right there. Star Trek is going fizzle.

 

[chaseter]

I think the only real competition for Wolverine is Terminator.

Terminator will pretty much cut off whatever legs Wolverine has at that point.

Hopefully Wolverine will be up to $200 Million by May 21.

Harry Potter and Transformers are going to smash all of those anyways

 

[night0205]

Yeah, but they aren't in may...so...

 

[Downhere]

Harry Potter and Transformers are going to smash all of those anyways

So true, those are pretty much sure bets for 280+ million domestically and a great deal more internationally. Can't wait for Potter, that sucker should have been out last year like it was originally supposed to. But...yeah.

 

[Peter McCabe]

Harry Potter and Transformers are going to smash all of those anyways

What do you mean "those"?

Wolverine's run will end exactly the same week that Transformers 2's run will begin.

Wolverine will never actually get a chance to compete with Harry Potter and Transformers.

*Harry Potter on the other hand will compromise Transformers 2's legs, since it hits on Transformers 2's 3rd week in theatres.

 

[chaseter]

Yeah, but they aren't in may...so...

So what? TDK, IM, were in theates for months and in the top 10 for nearly 3 months for TDK, 2 months for IM. X2 was in the top 10 for 7 weeks.

 

[chaseter]

What do you mean "those"?

Wolverine's run will end exactly the same week that Transformers 2's run will begin.

Wolverine will never actually get a chance to compete with Harry Potter and Transformers.

*Harry Potter on the other hand will compromise Transformers 2's legs, since it hits on Transformers 2's 3rd week in theatres.

I am talking about overall box office. T2 and HP6 will be the top 2 of the summer and I think Wolverine will fall 4th, probably 5th or possibly even 6th.

 

[def28]

I am talking about overall box office. T2 and HP6 will be the top 2 of the summer and I think Wolverine will fall 4th, probably 5th or possibly even 6th.

Yeah, I think Transformers 2 is gonna have the best box office this summer. It has the most time to itself and seems to be the most anticipated out of the all summer movies according to polls. Im curious to see how HP does.

Wolverines opening week should be huge though. First big flick movie of the summer.

 

[Peter McCabe]

I am talking about overall box office. T2 and HP6 will be the top 2 of the summer and I think Wolverine will fall 4th, probably 5th or possibly even 6th.

Ironically, I can agree with this.

Wolverine will open big because of its popcorn movie image, but once word gets around that its a revenge movie (like Lifetime's dark TV Spots) families will probably take the kids to see something else - like Terminator, which to the eyes of the general audience is just "a movie about robots".

Wolverine does have a good chance to break the $250 Million mark, mainly because I don't consider Star Trek and Angels and Demons to be real threats, but also because the Terminator fanbase has been dormant for a while now and the Comic Book movie franchise is the top of the food chain at the moment.

People will watch it over and over if the film is actually good, that may rack up an additional $200 Million during the film's 2 month run in the box office. I'm pretty sure it opens at $90+, maybe even $100 Million.

I can't say at the moment if Terminator will beat Wolverine's overall box office, but I'm pretty sure Transformers 2 and Harry Potter will place first and second this year.