Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[FaT_tONle]

A Magneto film would be spectacular if done right. From the first scene in X1 through the hints of the Eric/Xavier relationship, the story is begging to be fleshed out. It's a natural fit to be the next film. I'm 100% behind the idea. Magneto ripping through Nazi troops, meeting Xavier, building Cerebro and finding other mutants... the story almost writes itself and would be the perfect fit for this universe.

I'd substitute the Magneto film for First Class... the spinoffs hsould be geared toward a character. First Class has the makings of a high school badly acted cheeze fest. I think you can cover the school and the Xavier perspective in the second half of a Magneto film rather than a separate film all together.

 

[narrows101]

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=11526

*snikt*

Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts and expectations for the box office performance of X-Men Origins: Wolverine?

Brandon Scott: This is going to do very well. $200 million or so. Even with the leaked film controversy, and Fox writer R. Friedman getting fired over his early review...his review was a very strong one, and I think that will bode well for the film. The trailers are exciting and I see high $100 to low $200 millions on the radar.

Joel Corcoran: Given the success of Iron Man and The Dark Knight from last year, I think the expectations for X-Men Origins: Wolverine are running incredibly high. The character of Wolverine may not have as many hardcore fans as Batman, but he has at least as many as Iron Man. Also, the Wolverine movie has the distinct advantage of having three solid X-Men movies behind it. Iron Man opened in early May of last year to the tune of $98.6 million and grossed $318.4 domestically. X-Men: The Last Stand opened to $102.8 million in late May 2006 with a domestic gross of $234.4 million. If X-Men Origins: Wolverine doesn't hit at least a $95 million opening and gross at least $225 million, it's going to be considered a significant disappointment.

Sean Collier: The X-Men fanbase is big, and the movies never really dipped too much in popularity. Furthermore, the Oscars just might have expanded Jackman's mainstream appeal a bit. I think it'll do quite well.

Max Braden: Even though I think most fans would agree that the third X-Men movie was the weakest of the trilogy, it opened to $123 million over the four day Memorial Day weekend three years ago. Wolverine focuses on the main draw of the movies, and Jackman looks great in the trailer. I could see this movie opening at $125 million even without the help of a holiday. A total gross of $250 or more wouldn't be a surprise.

Jim Van Nest: HUGE! Wolverine has a built in fan base from the first three films. Then throw in a REAL role for Sabretooth and the fanboys will go nuts over this one. I'm not saying it will outdo Potter or anything crazy like that, but it will crack the $200 million mark easily.

Reagen Sulewski: Wolverine is obviously the character best able to hold his own for a movie, but it almost feels like they're going with this as Mutants: The B-Team. Added with the fact that the FX look a little dodgy, I think we're going to have a bit of a step down in the opening weekend, and possibly a petty quick exit from theatres. But yes, that said, that still means $200 million without breaking much of a sweat.

Kim Hollis: I'm going to kind of fall in line with Reagen here. I agree that this feels like something more B-level than the first three X-Men films or Iron Man. I'm hearing generally positive buzz, but the TV commercials genuinely look like crap. There is nothing in them that screams out to say Wolverine is something special or even in the same ballpark as X-Men. I still think it will do gangbusters business, of course, but to say anything under $95 million would be a disappointment seems a little extreme. I'd say $80 million could be an anticipated debut, with what is likely to be quick fall-off due to the extreme fanboy nature of the film unless it's Iron Man good.

 

[night0205]

why would anyone want to know those %...i mean having an idea what brings in people is important...but...who cares?

 

[TNC9852002]

why would anyone want to know those %...i mean having an idea what brings in people is important...but...who cares?

??


Anyway, I'm gonna say $245m domestic.

-TNC

 

[night0205]

Logically it seems that even if the movie flops it will get north of 170M

And considering that Wolverine has a productin budget of a little more then 100M...it seems like they will do fine

Wolverine 2, First Class, seem inevitable, and other Marvel properties...Daredevil, FF...?

 

[WeaponXProject]

I don't think Storm needs her own movie and I don't think it would be good if they did.

Ditto, she could make a cameo in Black Panther movie some day...if Marvel makes one.


I'm gonna say 170 domestic and 340 to 370 worldwide.

 

[YJ1]

I expect stellar word of mouth for Wolvie.

Word of mouth will be great. I think WOM will negate the negative effect of the leak and it will balance out to a total that will rival X3's box office total. Wolverine will break 200 million domestic.

 

[Peter McCabe]

Anyway, I'm gonna say $245m domestic.

-TNC

I can see that happening

 

[night0205]

I'm thinking between 200-250. If Wolverine goes past 200, then I'll be happy. And that's probably plenty for a sequal or first class, or whatever Fox wants to screw up next...ha ha just kidding or am I? 0_0

 

[D-Man22]

aww ****. I thought the poll meant opening weekend so I voted 80 - 100M.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I think there is a lot of overestimation for this film. My instincts tell me that it's not going to perform as well as some of the projections are indicating. Star Trek is really heating up and some feel they've already seen the Weapon X concept in prior films.

I am estimating a $70 million opening, with maybe $215 million domestic take. And I'm being generous.

By the way...this poll is confusing as hell.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Your weekend multiplier is too high. The only X-film that had decent legs was the first movie and those legs were only decent at the time. A 2.9 multiplier would be a good legs for a Summer blockbuster in 2009.

Lets look at all of the X-Men films multipliers for a moment.

X1: opening 54.5mil Total:157.3mil Thats about a 2.9 multiplier.

X2: opening 85.6mil Total 214.9mil That about a 2.5 multiplier

X3: opening 3 day: 102.8mil 4 day 122.9mil. Total 234.4mil Multiplier are pretty tricky for movies released on any day thats not friday. Thats about a 2.3 multiplier for the 3day and 4day is about 1.9.

Now I know this isn't a direct sequel but I expect it to behave like one. Although I'm not sure it's multiplier will be worse than X3 I can assure you unless people have very high opinion of the film I don't see a multiplier better than 2.5. The fact is these X-Men movies have pretty bad legs and I don't see this one behaving any differently.

Wolverine is a popular character and the advertisement has been well done but I think that it is dumb for the article from that terrible website to bring up Iron Man. The fact is Iron Man has a 320 million dollar movie but right now he still isn't as well liked or as well known as Wolverine. Iron Man had great everywhere advertisement (I didn't like the adds but everybody else seemed too) and fantastic reviews. It had a cool I've never seen that factor. Wolverine doesn't have that one key factor, had three movies to show off his powers and even the most raved about movie in the series still didn't reach Iron Man, Spider-Man or The Dark Knight numbers. (meaning over 300mil)

The X-films obviously have a certain audience that sees them and loves them but that audience doesn't seem to be 300mil worth. I suspect I know why but I'm not going to get into that right now.

I predict an 87million dollar opening and a 192mil close. Because these movies are frontloaded and I don't think that it is going to be well received.

 

[night0205]

215 Domestic is still very good. Maybe not as great as Iron Man or The Dark Knight, but this movie isn't Iron Man or The Dark Knight. This is a spin-off movie, and usually those don't do so well. Of course I guess you could also call this Wolverine 1, and X1, 2, 3 is actually Wolverine 4, 5, 6. Or we could call it EPISODE I: The Phantom Deadpool.

 

[Peter McCabe]

I think the MAY 1 release date alone, will get this movie past a $90 Million opening weekend.

Once the movie brings in $90 million when it opens, its easy for it to triple that amount in 8 weeks.

If the film gets good word of mouth and strong reviews - expect my predicted $250 to get close to $300 Million.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

The X-films obviously have a certain audience that sees them and loves them but that audience doesn't seem to be 300mil worth. I suspect I know why but I'm not going to get into that right now.
.

I agree with everything you said. But indulge me...why don't you think the audience is 300 million worth?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think that it would have to open with 110 to 115mil for it to make over 250mil. I could see 100 to 105mil happening but I don't see anymore than that.

A 3.0 multiplier is never "easy" to get for a mega opening blockbuster. I think that alot of fans are going to be disappointed if they think that every PG:13 rated big budget comicbook movie is going to make 300mil because Iron Man did last year.

I honestly don't see this movie getting Spider-Man 1 and 2, Iron Man, The Dark Knight, Batman Begins, HellBoy 2 or Superman Returns type of reviews. I'm thinking X3 reviews right now. Best case seniro? The Incredible Hulk or Spider-Man 3 type reviews. I'm going by rotten tomatoes mostly.

I agree with everything you said. But indulge me...why don't you think the audience is 300 million worth?

I think that X-Men could have a franchise that could make over 300mil but (and I'm blaming Fox as well as Singer for this) the movies just seem more like little sci fi guy movies to me. I'm not saying that they don't appeal to alot of chicks but these mainly seem like guy films to me. The movies don't seem big enough to me, even with huge budgets they seem cheapy. I don't think that the movie being so grounded is helping any. I imagine that more kids and old people are interested (after Batman begins told them that it was safe) in seeing Batman, Spider-Man and Iron Man. Now I'm not saying that they are bad movies because of this but I do think that the realism/grounded, black leather angle has hurt the movies when it comes to them having ultra mass appeal. Now Bats doesn't have any powers so it's alright for him to take the route that he is taking. Replace Superman Returns with X-Men and thats the exact reason why Superman Returns underperformed.

Please take note that I'm not talking about the qualities of the films. I'm strickly looking at this from a boxoffice point of view. And yes this is all my opinion. Maybe with inflation X-Men Orgins will get over 300mil...I doubt it though.

 

[night0205]

I will admite even I really REALLY want to see an action movie, movies have sucked so far...nothin to see, people are like timebombs, and I do think when May 1st comes around, people will be wanting some escape...maybe Wolverine will hit it big just because of that?

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I think the critics are not going to be kind to this film. Just my gut instincts.

 

[chaseter]

Since we have the run time I will make my guesstimate:

Opening day: $65 million
Opening weekend: $105 million
Domestic take: $200 million

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think the critics are not going to be kind to this film. Just my gut instincts.

I would be shocked if they were.

 

[BMM]

I think that X-Men could have a franchise that could make over 300mil but (and I'm blaming Fox as well as Singer for this) the movies just seem more like little sci fi guy movies to me. I'm not saying that they don't appeal to alot of chicks but these mainly seem like guy films to me. The movies don't seem big enough to me, even with huge budgets they seem cheapy. I don't think that the movie being so grounded is helping any. I imagine that more kids and old people are interested (after Batman begins told them that it was safe) in seeing Batman, Spider-Man and Iron Man. Now I'm not saying that they are bad movies because of this but I do think that the realism/grounded, black leather angle has hurt the movies when it comes to them having ultra mass appeal. Now Bats doesn't have any powers so it's alright for him to take the route that he is taking. Replace Superman Returns with X-Men and thats the exact reason why Superman Returns underperformed.

Superman Returns underperformed because it is a near 3 hour introspective film with one major action sequence sold as something more than it is. It underperformed more along the lines of why Hulk underperformed, not X-Men. If it were the other way around, Superman would be in a black leather uniform and he wouldn't be flying or tossing islands into space.

Please take note that I'm not talking about the qualities of the films. I'm strickly looking at this from a boxoffice point of view. And yes this is all my opinion. Maybe with inflation X-Men Orgins will get over 300mil...I doubt it though.

I would be very surprised if it makes $300 million, let alone over $300 million. I may even scale back my initial $250+ million prediction.

I think the critics are not going to be kind to this film. Just my gut instincts.

I don't think they will be either, but you never know. Even if they do trash the film, I don't think audiences are going to care. I also agree with what you said earlier. I think Star Trek is picking up steam and could nip Wolverine's second weekend in the bud. I've heard a lot of people talking about it lately.

 

[night0205]

I'm guessing between 200-230M but I wouldn't be surprised if it makes it past 300M because:
1) It's the first big movie to open, and people are really wanting to be entertained.
2) It's got 3 movies behind it.
3) The leak actually created more hype (good or bad).
4) Advertisement has been pretty decent.
5) It's the first big movie to open, and people are really wanting to be entertained.
6) It's the first big movie to open, and people are really wanting to be entertained.
7) It's the first big movie to open, and people are really wanting to be entertained.
8) It's the first big movie to open, and people are really wanting to be entertained.
9) It's the first big movie to open, and people are really wanting to be entertained.
10) It's the first big movie to open, and people are really wanting to be entertained.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Do you take everything litterally BMM?

No superman wasn't in black leather but he was in darker colors and the movie looked dark and was kinda depressing. And it did have that realism/grounded feeling about it.

I'm not going to argue about why SR failed on here, I will be happy to, yet again, discuss it with you on the Superman boards though.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

115 million domestic

 

[night0205]

lol if it makes 115 domestic, good bye x-men franchise.